Bitcoin cycle

[Iranus]

Yes, the Bitcoin cycle has broken since the entry of the institutional players into the market. If we ride down through its historical performances and the market behavior, we can agree that this cycle is fundamentally different from the rest of the other ones. Generally, in the long-term view, I don't really see it as a problem because, despite the fact that we like the volatility during each cycle, as in how Bitcoin shoots up and down, it's like everyone was getting used to playing the same game and dumping Bitcoin after it had experienced those big rallies, which caused the market to crash, but this cycle everything is changing entirely.

What signs indicate that Bitcoin 4 year cycle has been broken? In my observation, aside from Bitcoin reaching an ath before the halving, there are no other sign that the market cycle has been broken. It seems to be repeating itself so far.

After peaking in October 2025, Bitcoin entered a bear market and dropped by more than 50% from its peak before recovering to around $80k as it is now. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that bear market is over and bitcoin will not fall again.

Therefore, it would be incorrect to assume that the market cycle has been completely broken.

[Franctoshi]

Yes, the Bitcoin cycle has broken since the entry of the institutional players into the market. If we ride down through its historical performances and the market behavior, we can agree that this cycle is fundamentally different from the rest of the other ones. Generally, in the long-term view, I don't really see it as a problem because, despite the fact that we like the volatility during each cycle, as in how Bitcoin shoots up and down, it's like everyone was getting used to playing the same game and dumping Bitcoin after it had experienced those big rallies, which caused the market to crash, but this cycle everything is changing entirely.

What signs indicate that Bitcoin 4 year cycle has been broken? In my observation, aside from Bitcoin reaching an ath before the halving, there are no other sign that the market cycle has been broken. It seems to be repeating itself so far.

After peaking in October 2025, Bitcoin entered a bear market and dropped by more than 50% from its peak before recovering to around $80k as it is now. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that bear market is over and bitcoin will not fall again.

Therefore, it would be incorrect to assume that the market cycle has been completely broken.

Bitcoin saw its all-time highs (ATH) before halving. Secondly, Bitcoin couldn't even do a complete 2x this cycle; the bear, and bull didn't take effect as they're used to. Are we in a supercycle? (because we didn't have a major bull/bear market). Aside from that, one thing I would agree to if the 4-year cycle is not broken is that Bitcoin may be going on a supercycle, because it's quite clear that this cycle has not or did not align properly with other cycles I have witnessed, because I have seen the past two Bitcoin cycles, and if I include this cycle, it's 3.

[alastantiger]

If bitcoin cycle is broken as Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, do you think that would be very bad for bitcoin long term?

If now Bitcoin goes up to new maximums, rather than having another leg down until 4Q 2026, then we would have had only 200 bear days approx, rather than 350-400 bear days as in previous cycles. Significant difference. As Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, the historical 4 year cycle structure would be broken.

In my opinion what I think is going on here is some wealthy men trying to manipulate the market, they are all just trying to hype the market and this game mislead some new investors into trusting their world and then invest with hopes of Bitcoin increasing in the near one or two years which naturally that is not usually the case as what we are to expect is some beer corrections and then the market stabilizing before we build up to a new all-time high.

The four-year cycle is still active and despite what many people have tried to discredit this theory in saying that Bitcoin does not have a cycle that is not always true instead Bitcoin have always proven every time that it only follows its 4-year cycle that happens after a bull market is completed. Although I might buy some Bitcoin right now since I have some spare cash and if there are new investors reading this they can do the same but the hope should not be so high that you get disappointed if the market does not get a quick pump as what is expected is more correction at least for a year or two before something promising happens again.

[Bitcoin_people]

Michael Saylor and many Bitcoin supporters believe that the market may gradually exit the 4 year halving cycle, although I think this is very unlikely. If investors do not believe that a new ATH will come after 4 years, then the psychological strength may decrease. Basically, a large part of Bitcoin is built on faith. Basically, the Bitcoin market runs on expectations. If expectations are broken by people, then there will be some effects on the market that may reduce the patience of long-term holders, FOMO may weaken, and the bullish momentum may slow down. In that case, if Bitcoin becomes a global reserve-type asset in the future, its price can be expected to increase gradually over a long period of time.

[Iranus]

Bitcoin saw its all-time highs (ATH) before halving. Secondly, Bitcoin couldn't even do a complete 2x this cycle; the bear, and bull didn't take effect as they're used to. Are we in a supercycle? (because we didn't have a major bull/bear market). Aside from that, one thing I would agree to if the 4-year cycle is not broken is that Bitcoin may be going on a supercycle, because it's quite clear that this cycle has not or did not align properly with other cycles I have witnessed, because I have seen the past two Bitcoin cycles, and if I include this cycle, it's 3.

First, there is no such thing as a supercycle. It was simply an over excitement on the part of some investor, which leads them to set unrealistic expectations.

Secondly, if you look at previous bull cycles, you will see that with each cycle that passes, Bitcoin's growth rate gradually slows down over time. That's because it is maturing and growing. Every asset goes through this process, and Bitcoin is no exception. So do not be surprised or disappointed if in the next bull cycle, Bitcoin’s growth declines even further.

Finally, you can not expect the market to repeat everything and be accurate down to every tiny detail.

[Bushdark]

Michael Saylor and many Bitcoin supporters believe that the market may gradually exit the 4 year halving cycle, although I think this is very unlikely. If investors do not believe that a new ATH will come after 4 years, then the psychological strength may decrease. Basically, a large part of Bitcoin is built on faith. Basically, the Bitcoin market runs on expectations. If expectations are broken by people, then there will be some effects on the market that may reduce the patience of long-term holders, FOMO may weaken, and the bullish momentum may slow down. In that case, if Bitcoin becomes a global reserve-type asset in the future, its price can be expected to increase gradually over a long period of time.

I understand you clearly and the news can create a different perception about the market and what could make potential investors to stop buying and accumulating Bitcoin and this can result in fear that the price of Bitcoin might not appreciate as time goes.
There are larger players in the market which includes the whales and the regular trades.
The way the price of Bitcoin has been moving is not convincing that we could see a huge . momentum in the market soon. Price has been going up and down which is a ranging market and this is not the kind of market that is suitable for big investors looking for opportunity in the market.

[masulum]

Michael Saylor and many Bitcoin supporters believe that the market may gradually exit the 4 year halving cycle, although I think this is very unlikely. If investors do not believe that a new ATH will come after 4 years, then the psychological strength may decrease. Basically, a large part of Bitcoin is built on faith. Basically, the Bitcoin market runs on expectations. If expectations are broken by people, then there will be some effects on the market that may reduce the patience of long-term holders, FOMO may weaken, and the bullish momentum may slow down. In that case, if Bitcoin becomes a global reserve-type asset in the future, its price can be expected to increase gradually over a long period of time.

4 years halving cycle all this time has become the main psychological foundation that trigger FOMO and test the patience of long term investors, but we also must realize that Bitcoin transition to global reserve asset will demand market maturity. If it is true, we slowly go out from that cycle, the very explosive price jump maybe will cool down, but as replacement Bitcoin maybe get price stability and institutional adoption. In the end, the shift from speculative asset that driven by seasonal trend become store of value asset that grow slowly. That mean market players must change their mindset from chasing instant profit become a more measured long term investment.

[SamReomo]

If bitcoin cycle is broken as Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, do you think that would be very bad for bitcoin long term?

No, that won't be bad for Bitcoin's long term holders because overtime Bitcoin will continue to grow even if that 4 year cycle thing breaks and something new takes place. I still doubt that Michael Saylor when he says that the Bitcoin cycle is broken because even the first quarter of 2026 is gone and still we're far away from Bitcoin's ATH so I think the cycle system isn't broken yet.

[jossiel]

It makes the holding more exciting if the cycles are broken. Why? because we're in the expected bear market.

And for them to say that the cycle has been broken, would that mean that this bear market is already broken and done? or even longer?

We don't know because with all of the possible changes that we can experience, nothing beats someone who's very firm to hold for the long term.

[KingsDen]

It makes the holding more exciting if the cycles are broken. Why? because we're in the expected bear market.

And for them to say that the cycle has been broken, would that mean that this bear market is already broken and done? or even longer?

We don't know because with all of the possible changes that we can experience, nothing beats someone who's very firm to hold for the long term.

The 4 year cycle being broken could just mean many things. It might not just be what we are anticipating. Even if the 4 year cycle is not broken yet, we should all acknowledge that the market is different now. This started when ATH was met in the last cycle even before the halving. It was then I knew that something different is happening in the industry. Even if it's not the complete collapse of the 4 year cycle, there is a significant shift from what we used to know.

I actually fell for the CZ projection of the super cycle. With the wave they gave, I thought that bitcoin could no longer drop bellow $100k. But for we to still be in this number, it means the native bitcoin cycle cannot be totally abolished.

[jossiel]

It makes the holding more exciting if the cycles are broken. Why? because we're in the expected bear market.

And for them to say that the cycle has been broken, would that mean that this bear market is already broken and done? or even longer?

We don't know because with all of the possible changes that we can experience, nothing beats someone who's very firm to hold for the long term.

The 4 year cycle being broken could just mean many things. It might not just be what we are anticipating. Even if the 4 year cycle is not broken yet, we should all acknowledge that the market is different now. This started when ATH was met in the last cycle even before the halving. It was then I knew that something different is happening in the industry. Even if it's not the complete collapse of the 4 year cycle, there is a significant shift from what we used to know.

I agree, it's already different before the last bull run cycle that we've entered.

The sudden skyrocketing made everyone curious why the pattern has been so different. Maybe, it's meant to be like that and for the next bull runs we'll enter, that could be more than that.

I actually fell for the CZ projection of the super cycle. With the wave they gave, I thought that bitcoin could no longer drop bellow $100k. But for we to still be in this number, it means the native bitcoin cycle cannot be totally abolished.

Supercycle or not, this only shows that a highly volatile asset can always fail our expectations.

[LogitechMouse]

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They believe it is good. Or perhaps they need that to happen for their highly leveraged businesses to survive. But rather than being good for Bitcoin, it could be very bad.

Because if the cycle expectations are broken, after this bear period of 200 days, there wouldn't be a strong expectation for a 3 years bull period. Doubts would grow in adversity, less trust, less confidence. Resulting in a much weaker Bitcoin's price increase in the future. Or perhaps quite worse.

Since we haven't seen the Bitcoin cycle being broke, we don't know the effect of towards Bitcoin or even the whole crypto market. Everybody can just speculate, predict but the reality is we don't know what could happen. As for those popular person out there, they can just say anything that they want to say, but they're just simply predicting just like what we Average Joes are doing.

In the world of investing, believing = speculating. I can say that "I believe that the bear market will end in May." but the reality is that I'm just speculating it, and we know that it will not happen. This is also the same with what Saylor said. 3 years of bull run period? I don't see it that way TBH. Well overall, the 4-year cycle hasn't been broken yet, and many believe that it will be broken last year, but it isn't. In fact, there are many people who are speculating when it comes to the cycle. Some say that "the bull market will be extended" last year. Some are saying again that "the bear market will be shorten this year" blah, blah blah. People can speculate whatever they want anytime they want.

[cryptoaddictchie]

In the world of investing, believing = speculating. I can say that "I believe that the bear market will end in May." but the reality is that I'm just speculating it, and we know that it will not happen. This is also the same with what Saylor said. 3 years of bull run period? I don't see it that way TBH. Well overall, the 4-year cycle hasn't been broken yet, and many believe that it will be broken last year, but it isn't. In fact, there are many people who are speculating when it comes to the cycle. Some say that "the bull market will be extended" last year. Some are saying again that "the bear market will be shorten this year" blah, blah blah. People can speculate whatever they want anytime they want.

Thats the thing about speculation is its quite cunning. People made gossip or any conclusive statement about the market potentials that why it makes the narrative always active.

For now I am just doing a good run for my altcoins and assets and just simply waiting at the sideline but ready whenever theres a good entry or exit.  Regarding the cycle this one is quite confusing days now cause a lot had change since then too many narratives being open besides the bitcoin momentum but clearly its always btc will do the first move.

[YOSHIE]

If bitcoin cycle is broken as Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, do you think that would be very bad for bitcoin long term?

People can say whatever they want about Bitcoin's cycle breaking, even though we know people say that the once-four-year cycle event called halving predictions can be broken, but many people can't really speculate on those words.

However, if such a mindset can be predicted, then where is the evidence that the Bitcoin cycle has signs of breaking, I believe this issue is just a bluff and creates panic among investors, the proof is that many countries are currently making positive rules for Bitcoin in general, if I speculate the Bitcoin cycle will not be broken and the halving event will continue to occur every four years while the mining rewards continue.

[SilverCryptoBullet]

People can say whatever they want about Bitcoin's cycle breaking, even though we know people say that the once-four-year cycle event called halving predictions can be broken, but many people can't really speculate on those words.

However, if such a mindset can be predicted, then where is the evidence that the Bitcoin cycle has signs of breaking, I believe this issue is just a bluff and creates panic among investors, the proof is that many countries are currently making positive rules for Bitcoin in general, if I speculate the Bitcoin cycle will not be broken and the halving event will continue to occur every four years while the mining rewards continue.

People as outsiders will try to attack, create fuds against Bitcoin anytime while likely they see bear market is a better chance for doing these activities. In bull market, they don't hesitate doing that but I simply ignore such outsiders because they can not understand about Bitcoin and this market without actual participation in it.

I care more about people who want to attack and fud against Bitcoin in order to get benefit for themselves. Like they can say the four-year cycle was broken and feel happy when the others are fearful and dump coins on the market so attackers with fuds can buy bitcoin with cheaper prices. I wish that more people will understand about motivation of attackers and no longer panic sell, get loss for themselves while bring profit earning opportunities to the others.

[Kelward]

If bitcoin cycle is broken as Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, do you think that would be very bad for bitcoin long term?

No, that won't be bad for Bitcoin's long term holders because overtime Bitcoin will continue to grow even if that 4 year cycle thing breaks and something new takes place. I still doubt that Michael Saylor when he says that the Bitcoin cycle is broken because even the first quarter of 2026 is gone and still we're far away from Bitcoin's ATH so I think the cycle system isn't broken yet.

Bitcoin circle hasn't broken yet as we are still in bear run which is where the market is supposed to be so there is no cause for alarm yet, even if the circle is broken Bitcoin will always recover and reach ATH that should be what will matter to us. Bitcoin market is volatile and everybody is welcome to make their own speculations including whales like Michael Saylor, in the end it is demand and supply that will determine price at anytime.

Perhaps in the future Bitcoin circles will no longer be the major yardstick to measure bull run and bear run so let us not totally rely on the 4 years circles for price movements in the future. Some dynamics are already changing from the earlier circles like seeing ATH before halving. Whatever happens that can prompt Bitcoin circles to be broken before expectation shouldn't matter so much as seeing it reach ATH after dip and recovery.

[Bushdark]

It makes the holding more exciting if the cycles are broken. Why? because we're in the expected bear market.

And for them to say that the cycle has been broken, would that mean that this bear market is already broken and done? or even longer?

We don't know because with all of the possible changes that we can experience, nothing beats someone who's very firm to hold for the long term.

The 4 year cycle being broken could just mean many things. It might not just be what we are anticipating. Even if the 4 year cycle is not broken yet, we should all acknowledge that the market is different now. This started when ATH was met in the last cycle even before the halving. It was then I knew that something different is happening in the industry. Even if it's not the complete collapse of the 4 year cycle, there is a significant shift from what we used to know.

I actually fell for the CZ projection of the super cycle. With the wave they gave, I thought that bitcoin could no longer drop bellow $100k. But for we to still be in this number, it means the native bitcoin cycle cannot be totally abolished.

Since the four years cycle do moves from the bull season to the bear season, we are already in the bear season and we have to wait for another complete four years before we should be expecting the bull market to manifest again.
CZ knows that the market has changed pattern and that does not mean that the four years bull and bear cycle is completely over.
We shall be experiencing this but in another different patterns. Trump is a lover of Bitcoin and because of this I know the bull and the bear market is going to work together to bring a great experience.

[tbct_mt2]

Since the four years cycle do moves from the bull season to the bear season, we are already in the bear season and we have to wait for another complete four years before we should be expecting the bull market to manifest again.
CZ knows that the market has changed pattern and that does not mean that the four years bull and bear cycle is completely over.
We shall be experiencing this but in another different patterns. Trump is a lover of Bitcoin and because of this I know the bull and the bear market is going to work together to bring a great experience.

There are nothing unchanged with time, so there are nothing completely the same from one year to another year, one market cycle to another market cycle. It's unrealistic if we base on the past and believe that what will happen in future years and cycles be exactly the same what happened in the past.

What is more realistic to believe is the market cycle, the patterns can be similar with some differences in the future.
Bitcoin: The market cycle.
Is Bitcoin's four-year cycle broken?
It's about Bitcoin market cycle, and generally it's important to read the basic phases of any market cycle.
The psychology of market cycles.