Don't overthink -WIN

[Free Market Capitalist]

That's a good motto for a snake oil salesman. The point here is that, whether they overthink things or not, profitable bettors are clearly in the minority in the long run. And those winners aren’t successful because they think too little; rather, it’s because they analyze things thoroughly and have a strategy that they follow to the letter.

[Saltysugar99]

Analyze your bets well, be confident, enjoy the process, bet with what you can afford to lose, and relax. Whatever the outcome is, accept it and move on. No overthinking, no high expectations, and no overconfidence because the game can take a different turn even with all the effort put into it.
Gambling is unpredictable, so you cannot be so sure it will go as you have predicted.

That's true, you just need to enjoy the whole process instead of expecting too much from it because it will definitely get you disappointed. However, gamble is never assured, is a game of lost and gain so it advisable you always prepared your mind in accepting whatever outcome it produces, don't ever think of staking all your life savings expecting to hit it big because it will surely get you disappointed. Moreover, it's always safe to gamble with what we can afford to lose so that when things didn't go as planned we wouldn't go and start thinking of harming our self.

People make mistakes when they bet without understanding their capabilities and limit. If they bet as much as they can tolerate losing, then they will not have any problems. If a person bets to spend their free time and for entertainment, then if it becomes a cause of mental unrest for them, then I do not support betting in that process in any way. If they are responsible from the beginning, such problems will not happen.

[Ishicryptic]

I think it's better to find the information ourselves, without looking at too many statistics or odds on betting sites. Ideally, we should draw our own conclusions about who the winner might be and under what conditions. Then we place our bet, regardless of the payout, because we're trusting our own judgment, and maybe that way, losing won't feel so bad.

Overanalyzing is not necessary in sports bet because it doesn't guarantee wins so no need to overwork yourself because you want to get the best information on stats, just do what you can and stake your game. Many bettors that rely on tipsters also lose like everybody else so I don't see the big deal about going extra miles just to get your perfect stats because you can still lose after all your efforts. The best strategy is always to use amounts that you are comfortable to loose to place your bets, you don't need a perfect analysis what you need is a perfect bankroll management knowledge so you will not gamble irresponsibly.

[Cointxz]

So if you are interested in my thoughts today, I have the Cavaliers +3.5. That line looks too low to me, and I think many people will believe the Pistons can win again because they are at home.

This bet was already winning since the 3rd quarter and then collapse on 4th quarter. I rarely take a low handicap + points since the final minutes usually just a lot of free throw giveaway since losing team rely that enemy team will missed a free throw shot while they aim to have a quick 3 which we all know a very low chance to succeed.

So a multiple failed 3 points in addition to enemy free throws make the lead always grow in the end. It’s either they will win the game in small margin or blow out the low handicap points.

[EarnOnVictor]

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end? That is usually because we are overthinking. We focus too much on the stats we see and think that is already enough to win, but in reality, it is not that simple. The oddsmakers also know those stats, and they set the line based on how people are likely going to think.

Does it even wise to overthink or be overconfident in anything, especially in gambling? That will be a self-deceit that could lead to self-destruct. Gambling results could go either way, regardless of the good job you've done in selecting that so-called "perfect" option(s). I've seen where the best selections ended in losses, and I've seen where the worst selections win. Even last month, a ticket that I thought was gone eventually paid me, which calls for a neutral mind in the outcome of our bets, to valid a serious heartbreak.

[Mhizlove]

I think it's better to find the information ourselves, without looking at too many statistics or odds on betting sites. Ideally, we should draw our own conclusions about who the winner might be and under what conditions. Then we place our bet, regardless of the payout, because we're trusting our own judgment, and maybe that way, losing won't feel so bad.

In addition I will say that trusting your own judgement is good but also balance it with a little reality check because sometimes our mind can be bias without us even knowing especially when we have love for a particular team or player and it's better than your personal analysis join in hand with your the little info that you've verified, so that it will not be like you're just following his you feel. Accordingly either lose or win, you will know that your decision came from a clear thinking and not by the odds you see or emotions

[TedMosby]

-snip-

So if you are interested in my thoughts today, I have the Cavaliers +3.5. That line looks too low to me, and I think many people will believe the Pistons can win again because they are at home.

Yeah, the Pistons won against the Cavaliers at home, just like how many of other people't thought.




Sportsbetting is not about statistics or data. It's just a tool as a reference for a prediction based on team and individual performance on the pitch. But we don't know the external factors that sometimes affect how the team or individuals perform on the pitch. For example, stats of team A from the top of the table vs team B from the bottom of the table.

By statistics, we probably can blindly predict that A will easily win against B. But teams from the relegation zone or lower position on the table usually have higher ambitions to win, to make their place in the league safe. Or simply, underdog teams become more motivated because they want to prove people wrong.

What about team A? They could lose because they underestimate their opponent too much, or because they feel the extra pressure they get from the fans or themselves because they know they are facing a weaker team.

Another example is the individual players. You don't know what happened to each player. Conditions, fatigue, psychology, etc. These things affect their performance. And it will for sure affect the overall team performance because of the need for teamwork.

Sportsbetting is too complex to only rely on team stats. Individual data is also important, especially what I mentioned above, which unfortunately we don't have access to.

[Tmoonz]

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end? That is usually because we are overthinking. We focus too much on the stats we see and think that is already enough to win, but in reality, it is not that simple. The oddsmakers also know those stats, and they set the line based on how people are likely going to think.

Aside getting misled by the stats or whichever means of data we sources our strategies to predict the games, overconfident can be heartbreaking when we loose the game because our mindset had already taken side that the game is a goal with full assurance.
This overconfident also lead to giving false hope where we can even bet with huge amount of money that we can not afford to loose.
One thing too to understand is that if our instincts doesn't have confidence on our decision because second thoughts won't let us play the game not until we're unrealistically convinced.

What I do advice every gamblers is that we shouldn't think so badly of ourselves when we fully follow our mindset by taken side of the game and it ended up becoming a disappointment, the reason is that what if things had went on your on your favor? So there is no point overreacting when it goes against you, the mind game should be that we slow down on being too confident on games no matter how much stat has it shown and beyond every reasonable doubt because a lot can actually influence the game during action which we have no control over.

[DubemIfedigbo001]

And those winners aren’t successful because they think too little; rather, it’s because they analyze things thoroughly and have a strategy that they follow to the letter.

These wouldn't still guarantee you are a winner, I've met couple of guys who stake on what should be called careless games and they won. Analysis and strategy is flawed since the playtime would determine if you win or not. Still got a couple of niggas in my hood who spend lots of time using stats to analyze games and the still loose a lot, and I don't think I've seen anyone who has won consecutively for the long-term, which should be the accurate yardstick the determine success in gambling and not just from a one-time big win. Those who win tangible amounts many be in net loss, so it is not to be considered success at all.

[Pumpsta]

I've got a challenge for you all.. when you're looking for matches to bet on write down the first feeling you've got & follow it, no exceptions.. let's see how many of you become millionaires in a week 'cause this is exactly the failsafe winning strat you all talk about

[bitbollo]

That's why having a budget/exit strategy would be a reasonable strategy...
But this is how it should work gambling. If any event was already safe and sure it was just not possible to bet because other gamblers was aware of it.
Or the bookmakers decide to don't offer the odds. Note, I am not speaking about "risks". Here they are literally not offering something becayse "safe bets" are quoted at 1.00 It's a nice argument and this is why I was starting to collect Sinner's odds to build a "Sinner Index"

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

I've got a challenge for you all.. when you're looking for matches to bet on write down the first feeling you've got & follow it, no exceptions.. let's see how many of you become millionaires in a week 'cause this is exactly the failsafe winning strat you all talk about

What you are saying is that we should bet base on our instinct and not the data or the odds given to us? I don't think that it will make us millionaires in a week though as it is not also a assurance that it's going to work, in short it's a hit or miss.

But I do like the mindset though, at least you are positive of your bet. Sometimes to make it simple, just think of it as your bet already hit as if trying to manifest everything that you are a winner. In that, you really don't need to be overthinking, just being optimistic might be enough already.

[nara1892]

Thinking too much will only make your head tired because it doesn't mean it will guarantee victory, there are so many things that can affect the results at the end of the match even though your favorite team has a higher chance of winning based on statistics, I personally don't want to waste too much time and energy on something that is ultimately uncertain, trying hard but ultimately still losing is indeed painful but that's how gambling is, therefore, if I personally only analyze with simple data and don't consider too many things, the most important thing is that I still bet within limits.

[nimogsm]

Thinking too much will only make your head tired because it doesn't mean it will guarantee victory, there are so many things that can affect the results at the end of the match even though your favorite team has a higher chance of winning based on statistics, I personally don't want to waste too much time and energy on something that is ultimately uncertain, trying hard but ultimately still losing is indeed painful but that's how gambling is, therefore, if I personally only analyze with simple data and don't consider too many things, the most important thing is that I still bet within limits.

I check literally a few criteria before a game, such as the starting lineup and the results of previous games, including those of my opponents. I haven't been searching for much information lately, as I just want to watch the match and test my own game predictions, and that's all. I have a main job where I have to think during the match, and I want to relax.

[rachael9385]

This is one thing that I have learnt when it comes to betting, thinking too much can even lead to mistakes and it doesn't also increase chances of winning. You shouldn't be overconfident because there is no amount of rational thinking or analysis that can guarantee profiit.The most important thing is to bet responsibly at all times by making sure that you stake amounts that you can afford to lose.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Well, there are a lot of games I have lost whereas the outcome was supposed to have gone just in my prediction but it was just luck that favoured the opportunity team and they scored a goal which made me lost the bet. The way the teams plays is sometimes different from how they played in their previous match and sometimes too it's the same, the stats could be right but luck was just on the side of the opposite team. I have been in situations like that and I could tell that the opposite team was just lucky else I would have successfully won my bet. So, most times, we can not just be right, we can't be too accurate.

[AmaGold70]

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end? That is usually because we are overthinking. We focus too much on the stats we see and think that is already enough to win, but in reality, it is not that simple. The oddsmakers also know those stats, and they set the line based on how people are likely going to think.

The fact that we loose some games even when we are so confident about a particular bet, is not because we overthink, but is because that is the nature of gambling, more especially in sports betting. Of a truth, the only thing that can give a gambler more confidence in his or her bet is when that gambler is placing bet based on stats. This means this gambler is well informed about his bet. However, so many things transpires during a match that can make a good team even loose match to a smaller team, and some of these things includes, red card, injury, reservation or let's say when a match is fixed, these are some of the reasons that can make a favourite team turn against you. Some of these factors, as gamblers we don't see them coming but once in a while it happens, and make gamblers get disappointed.

[Strongkored]

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end? That is usually because we are overthinking.

I think it's more accurate to call it overconfidence than overthinking.
I was overconfident about the outcome of the UCL semifinal between Bayern and PSG, but it turned out to be the opposite.
My friend advised me to read the news before placing a bet to gain a better understanding.
However, we can't simply ignore the odds because they're based on statistics that can be wrong, but the chances of them being wrong are slim.

[Achalugo BTC]

In addition I will say that trusting your own judgement is good but also balance it with a little reality check because sometimes our mind can be bias without us even knowing especially when we have love for a particular team or player and it's better than your personal analysis join in hand with your the little info that you've verified, so that it will not be like you're just following his you feel. Accordingly either lose or win, you will know that your decision came from a clear thinking and not by the odds you see or emotions

Though, you are right but sometimes our emotions can cloud our judgement making it look as if their choices are informed and good, not knowing that they are stepping into pitfalls that will ruined their lives in the process. That's why its okay and important for people to always check their emotions, in order to balance them so that one can't just ignore the fact and decide to consider their gut feelings, as it will not make any sense. So stopping gambling from becoming emotional gambling is by adhering to rules and make every necessary adjustments.

[WhoYouCantKill]

Thinking too much will only make your head tired because it doesn't mean it will guarantee victory, there are so many things that can affect the results at the end of the match even though your favorite team has a higher chance of winning based on statistics, I personally don't want to waste too much time and energy on something that is ultimately uncertain, trying hard but ultimately still losing is indeed painful but that's how gambling is, therefore, if I personally only analyze with simple data and don't consider too many things, the most important thing is that I still bet within limits.

It doesn't change anything and gambling will still be there, no matter if one wins or not. But, the real truth is just that you are to just the ready to accept the uncertainty of gambling, whichever thing may be the result has to be accepted with the whole of your heart, as overthinking will only have to affect your health as you said but doesn't change anything in gambling, as it won't protect you from not falling sick or leading you into frustration. But, accepting that there is nothing certainty that the outcome will be good even though you might be good in analysing.