Don't overthink -WIN

[danherbias07]

Sadly, that bet is a loss. I bet on the Pistons in that game, and they won.



But you are right, I didn't overthink that bet. I just know Cade Cunningham is very difficult to stop, so they will win that one.
Sadly, I lost my bet for the Lakers +15.5. It could've been a win if only the Lakers did well while SGA was out due to foul trouble, but they did not. They cannot get stops, and the turnovers keep piling up.

Back to the topic. There are instances when we can really be successful in our bets if we just bet plainly without trying to dig deep into the numbers. Well, oddsmakers can sometimes be tricky with the spreads. Sometimes the heavy underdog wins or can keep the game close even though the spreads are above the roof.

[YOSHIE]

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end?

Often, thoughts like that often cross my mind.
Where when I am 100% sure of winning one of the football matches, the opposite happens, this really stresses me out.

For that reason and currently I really don't have any guidelines on certain clubs to bet on, I mostly look at the statistics of their matches with other clubs, after that I start placing bets.

In sports betting, if we are sure of our victory, most of the time the opposite happens, in fact sometimes it happens when things happen that we don't imagine, that's how to play.

[Agbamoni]

I think it's better to find the information ourselves, without looking at too many statistics or odds on betting sites. Ideally, we should draw our own conclusions about who the winner might be and under what conditions. Then we place our bet, regardless of the payout, because we're trusting our own judgment, and maybe that way, losing won't feel so bad.

Participating in watching the sports gives us a higher advantage in choosing odds without spending too much on stats. I dont take too long looking at stats because I've watched the team recently and I know their current injury situation and how it affected them on the pitch, and o course I know the current situation of tea. For instance if they have to rest playyers due to an important upcoming match. All these things are what to know when picking a game but for someone who dont watch the sports regularly they wil miss out on it.

[Agbe]

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end?

I don't have anything to say again. It has if you are talking about me. If I bet on multiple games and all enter except one game left and remaining few is left for the game to end and suddenly the game equalized and it ended it with 1-1 and I played the game double chance to win if any of them win. And 100% confidence was in the game. I was disappointed on the match.

[Achalugo BTC]

Participating in watching the sports gives us a higher advantage in choosing odds without spending too much on stats. I dont take too long looking at stats because I've watched the team recently and I know their current injury situation and how it affected them on the pitch, and o course I know the current situation of tea. For instance if they have to rest playyers due to an important upcoming match. All these things are what to know when picking a game but for someone who dont watch the sports regularly they wil miss out on it.

Yes, that's true, watching matches helps one to know what to bet, which will help to tell what happened and how things went but that won't still give you the guarantee that you can win in gambling with just statistics and of course, one has to apply the principle of responsible gambling so as not to have much pressure or excitement that will make  you to do otherwise because that won't only make you sad but will also ruin your plans.

[jeremypwr]

I think this is a good mentality to have but honestly it's easier said than done.
There have been many times when I was convinced I had a winning ticket; only to lose in the final seconds by a sloppy goal.

[Bitcoin.com97]

it also goes both ways. if you overthink and not too confident with your bet, you might change your bet even though that was the winning bet already. sometimes not thinking too much can actually be great lol.

Even when you have over confidence that doesn’t guarantee your winning , I only have one approach towards gambling which is , I don’t overthinks , once predicted all I do is to be optimistic, hoping for a win , and if it doesn’t come too I don’t dowell in it, because sometimes what usually lead to addiction and so much panic is the way or the mindset we have towards gambling, which is not right , because even in the last minute something can still happen, so it’s best people don’t put there mind so much when betting .

[Onyeeze]

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end?

Has happened in that way so many times because sometimes when you gamble you be expecting to win because of your predictions but at end you lose, so it has happened to me severally which if it is happen now again I don't take it like a new something to me, and that is why I have to control my emotions in gambling and also bet with what I can afford to lose, because if you think that you're going to win in gambling and at end you lose, it will always be painful so gambling need a proper research and also someone who is new in gambling don't need to use everything it has to put in gambling I have to gamble with the things you know that you can dash out...

[CryptoHeadlineNews]

I think it's better to find the information ourselves, without looking at too many statistics or odds on betting sites. Ideally, we should draw our own conclusions about who the winner might be and under what conditions. Then we place our bet, regardless of the payout, because we're trusting our own judgment, and maybe that way, losing won't feel so bad.

But don't you think those statistics are also another avenue for a gambler to get the necessary information he/she needs to make a conclusive decision on the team to place a bet on? Because it is no doubt that while checking statistics is good, over-analysing it and believing you have got a workable strategy while placing a bet is one thing that usually caused gamblers overthinking about it. Hence, in my humble opinion, the best thing that can make gamblers stop overthinking about a bet is when they start knowing fully well that it's outcome is never always guaranteed, but rather always have a 50/50% chance of you either winning or losing your bet.

[promise444c5]

Let me give an example from the games yesterday.

First game was Sixers vs Knicks. In Game 1, the Knicks won by more than 30 points, so in the next game with almost the same opening line, people probably thought it would be another blowout. Sixers were not playing good in the first meeting, and with Embiid announced out, most bettors would easily think this was a sure win for the Knicks. But what happened? Sixers were +7.5 and only lost by 6 points. Even if you bet them in the first half, Sixers still covered the handicap.

What changed that made them won the second time ?  It’s about not always about only stats, stats works though but there are other things to consider.

The bookmakers will always try to convince gamblers with whatever they throw at them and it’s not like it doesn’t work at all .. it’s always left to the gambler to do the job of finding other info before making their picks..

[Hispo]

I think this is a good mentality to have but honestly it's easier said than done.
There have been many times when I was convinced I had a winning ticket; only to lose in the final seconds by a sloppy goal.

Nah man. Those sloppy goals are the worst ones, and at the last minutes of the game.
I recall suffering because one of those back in one of the lastest world Cups, I was already celebrating when I suddenly realize my bet is completely ruined and deemed worthless.

It was one of the few times in my life I actually consider to quit betting on football for ever. It felt I was being played with by destiny or God himself.

It sucks.
Hopefully you did not lose much money to your bad luck, though.

[Achalugo BTC]

What changed that made them won the second time ?  It’s about always about only stats, stats works though but there are other things to consider. The bookmakers will always try to convince gamblers with whatever they throw at them and it’s not like it doesn’t work at all .. it’s always left to the gambler to do the job of finding other info because making their picks..

Well the trust still remains that, no matter how hard we try we still can't beat the house. The bookmakers are experts and are very experienced in that field. I dont know if I would say they are also experts in preying on the emotions of the gamblers because in the long run, the odds will always favour the house more than the gamblers. so no matter how sweet the odds might look, or how good our analytical skills might appear to be, it'll still not be good enough to shift the odds to our side.

[bitcoindusts]

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end? That is usually because we are overthinking. We focus too much on the stats we see and think that is already enough to win, but in reality, it is not that simple. The oddsmakers also know those stats, and they set the line based on how people are likely going to think.

Isn't it overconfident that one missed some aspects because he believe that his predictions is flawless?  And overthinking is something like being worried on something that he thinks that is not enough so he have to go through it again and again, having no confidence or mostly thinks  that his calculation or analysis is not enough to make him win.

[tabas]

I am an overthinker but with my bets, I don't give so much attention in it once I have already put a money in it and just waiting for the outcome. While that confidence is on me before putting a bet and that's part of my routine so that I'll just push that bet to make it happen. Because if there's confidence with my bets, I'm just throwing money in it and that would be a random gambler does. I do that sometimes but at most times, I give myself that confidence with my bets because they're my choices and it's not done and chosen randomly.

[Davidvictorson]

Aside getting misled by the stats or whichever means of data we sources our strategies to predict the games, overconfident can be heartbreaking when we loose the game because our mindset had already taken side that the game is a goal with full assurance.
This overconfident also lead to giving false hope where we can even bet with huge amount of money that we can not afford to loose.
One thing too to understand is that if our instincts doesn't have confidence on our decision because second thoughts won't let us play the game not until we're unrealistically convinced.

I agree. Being overconfident clouds your judgement and makes the player to miss the errors in their strategies ultimately leading to mistakes that results in losses. Some of the factors that may cause one to be overconfident is their trust in another person who gives them a booking code. Because they feel like the person is an expert they will not take the time to review the codes to know if they agree with it or they need to adjust it and make their own betting decisions from it. The other factor is thinking that one's level of experience in gambling in that particular type of game, shields them from loss so they they do their research  thoroughly.

[Sonia_123]

The cases of winning a game that you are overconfidence of very slim, it is only on few cases, in gambling one should not be overconfident because it will only be leading you to more loses and nothing more, it is better to place your bet without expecting wins which you can be lucky to have wins.

You don't have to overthink when gambling, if not it will give you a wrong impression about the game you are about to place or you are playing, all you have to do is to be stable and focus on your game.

[mak013]

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end? That is usually because we are overthinking. We focus too much on the stats we see and think that is already enough to win, but in reality, it is not that simple. The oddsmakers also know those stats, and they set the line based on how people are likely going to think.

Let me give an example from the games yesterday.

First game was Sixers vs Knicks. In Game 1, the Knicks won by more than 30 points, so in the next game with almost the same opening line, people probably thought it would be another blowout. Sixers were not playing good in the first meeting, and with Embiid announced out, most bettors would easily think this was a sure win for the Knicks. But what happened? Sixers were +7.5 and only lost by 6 points. Even if you bet them in the first half, Sixers still covered the handicap.

Second game was Spurs vs Wolves. Spurs lost to the Wolves in Game 1, and the line was around -9.5 for Spurs. People probably thought that was too high because the Wolves already beat them, so taking Wolves +9.5 looked easy. But what happened? Spurs beat the Wolves by 30+ points.

So with that, we can see that this is really a business. Oddsmakers know what could possibly happen, and they set the line based on that. In the end, the sharp side still wins most of the time.

So if you are interested in my thoughts today, I have the Cavaliers +3.5. That line looks too low to me, and I think many people will believe the Pistons can win again because they are at home.

Bullshit. In series teams have different strategies, they have different contracts. They must give you show. The best team can lose 1-2 games to make a show, to increases bookies profit, to make 1-2 more games and add profit from games.
You will get more profit if you would bet on the winner of the pair. Don`t bet one match - you don`t know what result is planned in one game.

[Nwada001]

it also goes both ways. if you overthink and not too confident with your bet, you might change your bet even though that was the winning bet already. sometimes not thinking too much can actually be great lol.

In all, what you recommend is exactly for us not to take our bet too seriously and also not pay much attention to some details, just predict and bet on some option. When, if you look at it very well, you might change your decisions?

[Slow death]

Bookmakers don't know what will happen; they simply set odds based on statistics. If a team has won all five of its last five games without conceding a goal and has scored more than three goals in each game, and that team plays against a team that has lost all five of its last five games, hasn't scored any goals in those five games

and has conceded more than three goals in each of those five games, then the bookmakers will give lower odds to the team that won all five games, and that's obviously correct. Nobody will simply ignore this data and say that the team that lost all five games has a better chance of winning and bet on that team. Data is the only way we have to evaluate teams, in my opinion.

[Sammye3]

In all, what you recommend is exactly for us not to take our bet too seriously and also not pay much attention to some details, just predict and bet on some option. When, if you look at it very well, you might change your decisions?

Once you gamble with the right amount, feel free to enjoy your betting, there is nothing worry about, also gamble on games you find to be interesting, take it for  entertainment and when playing slots, see the need to have fun and not focus on making profits only, losses are also fun when you don't see winnings to be compulsory.