Don't overthink -WIN

[Furious 7]

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end? That is usually because we are overthinking. We focus too much on the stats we see and think that is already enough to win, but in reality, it is not that simple. The oddsmakers also know those stats, and they set the line based on how people are likely going to think.

I don't think this happens because we think too much but it is our luck that is in control even in a bet because situations like this often occur and so I feel that even if our analysis is very good but when our luck does not follow then in the end we will not be able to win.

Like last week when I felt quite confident with the bet because of the pretty good statistics and conditions that allowed me to be in several matches at once for parlay and it was destroyed unexpectedly because the final result did not match expectations when Manchester City was held to a draw by Everton.
Even though in terms of statistics it was quite good but because luck did not come to Manchester City, my bet was also destroyed.
 It's not a thinking error but it happens because luck doesn't come even though the momentum is very good and this is gambling even in betting in the end luck always holds control and it cannot be separated.

[junder]

I sometimes get annoyed when I see my friend gambling. He gambles very carefully because he thinks there’s a strategy in every round that can yield a profit, even though I believe that in the end it all comes down to luck. I once told him not to overthink it especially since we’re playing slot machines, but he still sticks to his principles. This is just a difference in each person’s gambling habits our job is just to play and share stories with one another.

[coinrifft]

I sometimes get annoyed when I see my friend gambling. He gambles very carefully because he thinks there’s a strategy in every round that can yield a profit, even though I believe that in the end it all comes down to luck. I once told him not to overthink it especially since we’re playing slot machines, but he still sticks to his principles. This is just a difference in each person’s gambling habits our job is just to play and share stories with one another.

It's not overthinking, it's the numbers that maybe he is looking and maybe see if he can find that one good bet. But I do agree that there is still luck. This factor are intangible and can't be measured as there are no numbers.

That's why for me it we see that one bet we consider, then just stick to it and see how it goes. We don't have to like overthink and see a lot of data and when that data contradicts itself, it's very hard to make that decision on what is to bet.

[michellee]

I sometimes get annoyed when I see my friend gambling. He gambles very carefully because he thinks there’s a strategy in every round that can yield a profit, even though I believe that in the end it all comes down to luck. I once told him not to overthink it especially since we’re playing slot machines, but he still sticks to his principles. This is just a difference in each person’s gambling habits our job is just to play and share stories with one another.

If I see my friend do that, I will say takes your time and keep analyze while I will do my own and place my bet. Even if we get annoy, we can't do anything especially if he doesn't finish his analysis yet. He will not place his bet not before he sure with his choice. I also told them not to overthink in analyzing so they don't wasting time too long and place their bet. Sometimes they confuse with their own analysis and in the end, they come to me and ask what I bet

[Crakryptvest]

You are right. Overthinking is just another way of giving yourself very high expectations for your games, such that when things don't go as expected, the loss hurts even deeper. Everyone wants to win, but I would rather advise that they keep an open mind. Analyze your bets well, be confident, enjoy the process, bet with what you can afford to lose, and relax. Whatever the outcome is, accept it and move on. No overthinking, no high expectations, and no overconfidence because the game can take a different turn even with all the effort put into it.
Gambling is unpredictable, so you cannot be so sure it will go as you have predicted.

What are we even overthinking for, gambling is not a game to get yourself over stressed about because your thinking will have no effect on the outcome of your bet and of what use is it for one to get himself into hyper situation, the problem with most gamblers is that the places themselves in a situation that they become highly expectant of something they can not decide on what will be the outcome, why not place your bet, no need to beg worried because we can't change what will be, I'm a gambler that have the understanding that is either I win or I lose, maybe the reason why some gamblers expect much from their bet is the amount they staked, it means they are going out bound when we know that spare money is what we are supposed to gamble with.

[348Judah]

We don't get the opportunity to win by overthinking it, with either coming by luck or by the skill we have shown in playing to deserve it, this is where we must know the game we are playing and try to analyze it well with an understanding that we have towards it, so that our expectation to either win or lose we also align together as we play and we won't take any outcome of it being personal.

[Wind_FURY]

Don't overthink -WIN

That's a nice title OP.

Although another way of saying it is - "Don't overthink - GAMBLE"

 

Because plebs we have no edge, then we have no other choice but gamble, no?

[nara1892]

Thinking too much will only make your head tired because it doesn't mean it will guarantee victory, there are so many things that can affect the results at the end of the match even though your favorite team has a higher chance of winning based on statistics, I personally don't want to waste too much time and energy on something that is ultimately uncertain, trying hard but ultimately still losing is indeed painful but that's how gambling is, therefore, if I personally only analyze with simple data and don't consider too many things, the most important thing is that I still bet within limits.

I check literally a few criteria before a game, such as the starting lineup and the results of previous games, including those of my opponents. I haven't been searching for much information lately, as I just want to watch the match and test my own game predictions, and that's all. I have a main job where I have to think during the match, and I want to relax.

Yes, I am the same as you, there are only a few things that I consider before finally placing a bet, not much different from you, namely I also first look at the last match of the two teams that will compete, see the formation, whether the mainstay players from both teams will play in the match or not, that's all, not because I am too busy with work but because I return to the initial thought that gambling is still gambling, many unexpected things can happen on the field that can change the result.

[Maslate]

We don't get the opportunity to win by overthinking it, with either coming by luck or by the skill we have shown in playing to deserve it, this is where we must know the game we are playing and try to analyze it well with an understanding that we have towards it, so that our expectation to either win or lose we also align together as we play and we won't take any outcome of it being personal.

OP seems to have stopped overthinking, since he has not made a post anymore after his prediction lost.
Well, maybe he realized now that making early conclusions can lead to bad decisions. The only way we can really prove that we are profitable in sports betting is if our long-term results can back it up, not just one or two lucky wins.

What I read is still the most applicable in real life, but honestly, not many of us have actually applied it properly or achieved the result we wanted. Most of the time, we know the right approach, but we still fail because our emotion and confidence get ahead of our discipline.

[KTChampions]

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end? That is usually because we are overthinking. We focus too much on the stats we see and think that is already enough to win, but in reality, it is not that simple. The oddsmakers also know those stats, and they set the line based on how people are likely going to think.
~

Whether you think a lot or a little, fluctuations happen. Even an underdog can win a game that was priced at 1 in 50 (a handicap underdog win). You're right about the odds providers, they take everything into account, and it's rare to find an event they've priced incorrectly, but it's possible. What's probably impossible is doing it consistently. Therefore, I came to the conclusion that it is best to bet live, where volatility and randomness are high. This in itself does not reduce the bookmaker's advantage, but it does give some chances to experienced bettors.

[Porfirii]

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end? That is usually because we are overthinking. We focus too much on the stats we see and think that is already enough to win, but in reality, it is not that simple. The oddsmakers also know those stats, and they set the line based on how people are likely going to think.

-snip-

I don't think many are aware of what you've explained above. Odds don't simply show the probabilities of certain results, but they also discount that part of how the model thinks people will behave (and automatically updates based on how they actually behave). If odds were just "fair", in the long run bettors wouldn't win or lose, like in a 50% probability game, and neither would the sportsbook.

[Sanitough]

I don't think many are aware of what you've explained above. Odds don't simply show the probabilities of certain results, but they also discount that part of how the model thinks people will behave (and automatically updates based on how they actually behave). If odds were just "fair", in the long run bettors wouldn't win or lose, like in a 50% probability game, and neither would the sportsbook.

Odds will always look fair, it just depends on how the bettors see it.

That odds we are seeing is given to make us feel like it is close to a 50-50 chance, but most of the time the average payout is only around 1.90, at least on good sportsbooks. So imagine that, you are taking what looks like a 50-50 bet, but you are only getting 90% return on the winning side.

That is why it is hard to win in the long run if you cannot stay consistent and disciplined. So I think it is normal to have doubts sometimes, because the sportsbook already has its edge built in. In the end, the outcome and our record will tell how we are really doing, especially if we are keeping track of every bet.

[Darker45]

Oddsmakers don't just release odds out of thin air. They're based on comprehensive and deep analyses as well.

Regardless, it's not as if they're aware of how the game would turn out. Apart from that, it's also the money that moves odds after the bookmakers release them to the market, especially hours before the game.

In the NBA, playoffs are interesting because they're more unpredictable. The level of competition is far higher than during the regular season. I even think it's a perfect time to risk on underdogs.

[Suleiman the Magnificent]

Actually, our problem isn't overthinking, it's the failure to think simply. Even though statistics, odds and team conditions are plain to see, sometimes we go chasing adventure because the odds offered on our predicted pick seem too low and most of the time it ends in disappointment. But if instead we could think simply and play the pick we clearly see, regardless of the odds, we would get much better results.

[Outhue]

The problem isn't that you overthink, the problem is you not figuring out which way the game will go, no one has that power to determine the end of a sport and come out like you guessed. Over think or not you are still on your knees begging for luck to happen, if you are blessed with good luck on that day you will win and if it's all bad luck day then you get the opposite, someone who isn't an expert in gambling can get lucky, someone who knows all the stats or know how to do better analysis can lose money.

[Eternad]

Actually, our problem isn't overthinking, it's the failure to think simply. Even though statistics, odds and team conditions are plain to see, sometimes we go chasing adventure because the odds offered on our predicted pick seem too low and most of the time it ends in disappointment. But if instead we could think simply and play the pick we clearly see, regardless of the odds, we would get much better results.

Most gambler that overthink with their bet normally are those risking an amount they can’t afford to lose. They fear that the will be lose that’s why their brain doesn’t relax when analyzing the game instead it was pressured by the fear of losing their money.

Betting should be plain and simple like what you said since stats was already there for us to use with other bet.

Those many criteria for our decision making sometimes makes our betting preferences complex until we can’t analyze properly anymore.

[giammangiato]

Don't overthink -WIN

That's a nice title OP.

Although another way of saying it is - "Don't overthink - GAMBLE"

Because plebs we have no edge, then we have no other choice but gamble, no?

How true what you say is, if we want to achieve something immediately by betting on luck we only have gambling as a choice, which then calling it a choice is not even correct.
Gambling for two reasons, the first is that it's fun, the second is no less important because it could give me the opportunity to win a large sum in the immediate future. Of course, it's not easy at all, but if you don't try, you're sure you won't win.

[Achalugo BTC]

I sometimes get annoyed when I see my friend gambling. He gambles very carefully because he thinks there’s a strategy in every round that can yield a profit, even though I believe that in the end it all comes down to luck. I once told him not to overthink it especially since we’re playing slot machines, but he still sticks to his principles. This is just a difference in each person’s gambling habits our job is just to play and share stories with one another.

Sticking to the rules and regulations of gambling should just be his goals as  he is doing, and try not to deviated from his initial purpose, expect he has the mind to make gambling a side hustle, that is when he can overthink anything that happen in gambling but, if not, he should just have fun and gamble safe, and avoid stress or pressure by all means because it doesn't really contribute anything to their lives and that of their loved ones.

[Judith87403]

The problem isn't that you overthink, the problem is you not figuring out which way the game will go, no one has that power to determine the end of a sport and come out like you guessed. Over think or not you are still on your knees begging for luck to happen, if you are blessed with good luck on that day you will win and if it's all bad luck day then you get the opposite, someone who isn't an expert in gambling can get lucky, someone who knows all the stats or know how to do better analysis can lose money.

That is it, they failed to understand when they are to play and when they are not, gambling hit both good and bad luck, and that is loss and profit. But not able to determine what go around gambling is what people lack knowledge about and that is what makes them to guessed that they can analyse well and win from it, and even forget that luck is the one that makes the whole moment to be a good one, and they have to get the better knowledge that gambling at will just automatically decides to be in the favour of house and in this moment, its best to just enjoy the game.

[Fiasem20]

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end? That is usually because we are overthinking. We focus too much on the stats we see and think that is already enough to win, but in reality, it is not that simple. The oddsmakers also know those stats, and they set the line based on how people are likely going to think.

Being too confident about a game brings about high expectations,but in reality we are conversant on how the gambling market works.Honestly,overthinking is also a mood that can affect one’s mental health,I used to be an overthinker before but gradually I am getting rid of it.Most times,I overthink on wins that at the end turns out to be a loss,though most times it do affect my mental health but not the extent where I would choose chasing losses to be an alternative.In all I do,I prefer being responsible so I’m very much responsible towards my gambling habit that’s why I don’t chase losses even when I thought the game/prediction would end in my favor.