Don't overthink -WIN

[Rashlyowl]

Thinking that we are more expert than the odds makers is a mistake, obviously they are the ones who make them, meaning they have data & statistics before making the odds. Therefore, when I gamble, I usually use the bookie's point of view, it makes it easier for me to know which betting options are best for me.

[nelson4lov]

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end? That is usually because we are overthinking. We focus too much on the stats we see and think that is already enough to win, but in reality, it is not that simple. The oddsmakers also know those stats, and they set the line based on how people are likely going to think.

People don't even think that much when it comes down to making bets because they just go with the favorites and call it a day. I know it's not every one thar does but like 90% of bettors do this. Some people don't even check the lines. They might have gone to the books earlier today and see that 76ers are plenty game 4 today vs Knicks might want to pull 1 back similar to what they did against Celtics. What happened? They got blowed out.

[Cantsay]

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end? That is usually because we are overthinking. We focus too much on the stats we see and think that is already enough to win, but in reality, it is not that simple. The oddsmakers also know those stats, and they set the line based on how people are likely going to think.

If you overthink your bet, you'll most likely start making decisions that will make you lose your bet.

It might not be the ideal example, but let me tell you one of mine. There was a time when I had already picked my games for a parlay and for some reason, I went back to the ticket and edited a single game and at the end of the week, because the bet was supposed to run for the whole weekend and when I checked the result, I found out that it was that specific game I made some changes to that made me lose the bet. It wasn't a one-time experiemce and that's why I don't bother to change anything after I am done selecting them.

[Orpichukwu]

Even though you don't overthink at least there's a level of critical thinking that you must put into the game and this is very important when it comes to  sports betting. It's different when it comes to casino gambling but when betting on sports you have to think. The problem with a lot of bettors is that they overthink and this even leads to mistakes or wrong picks. After doing your analysis the next thing is just to place your bet because overthinking isn't really going to make you know if that's the right or wrong prediction, Always be ready to lose.

We just pay attention to the analysis we are making and do not try to check and overthink the games over and over again as if we were making some sort of life or death decision, like some do. Anyone who can predict a game, even if the outcome is not always correct, is already doing something right for gambling purposes. Give yourself that extra stress is not worth it, especially in situations where the later decision might turn out to be wrong.

[Stable090]

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end?

Lots of people have lost so big just because they were so confident about the bet which they placed, but things didn’t go as they planned it, and they ended up losing. It’s has happened to me multiple times before, and I know if you are a gambler, you will have experienced something like this before. When you are gambling, always gamble with any amount you can afford to lose, even if you are so confident about your bet, don’t always gamble blindly because sometimes you might just be wrong, but if you gamble with what you can afford to lose, it’s not going to affect you even if things don’t go as you plan.

[Lida93]

Sincerely it's not that simple to get the predictions right base on just the stats whether past or current stats they all still can't be what any gambler should want to totally relied on and be overconfident on it.

True!  Although the statistics of each competing team do affect the outcome of the match, there are still some unknown factors that can that can overturn the expected result.  This is the reason why it is called gambling, since if the result can be predicted in an absolute matter, it will not be a gambling anymore.

Yeah, it's true about the occurrence of unforeseen circumstances which could actually change the outcome of the game from how the gambler had expected it to go base on the forms difference of both teams, could be due to injury on key players in the process of the game or a red card thereby reducing the strength of the team by numbers.

Where as a gambler it can really get complicated is when your guys and stats ain't aligning on the choice to make about the game. For such games I just jump over to the next one than stressing because in the end nothing really sure in sport betting.

Well, we can always skip betting on the games that we are not familiar with.  No one is forcing us in any way, and we have the freedom to choose whether we bet or not.

Exactly why I'll always skip... No forcing.

[ZeroVinsonN]

Thinking that we are more expert than the odds makers is a mistake, obviously they are the ones who make them, meaning they have data & statistics before making the odds. Therefore, when I gamble, I usually use the bookie's point of view, it makes it easier for me to know which betting options are best for me.

This makes sense for the most part but it's not something that will work out for you all the time, if it was that simple then people would be winning all of their bets but they don't because even though these bookies are experts in determining which team to assign which odd to they still don't have a fixed control on how things will work out for them, human error is a thing and will dismantle anything you think is set in stone, it's good to follow the odds but don't think they are guaranteed.

[eisen33]

Thinking that we are more expert than the odds makers is a mistake, obviously they are the ones who make them, meaning they have data & statistics before making the odds. Therefore, when I gamble, I usually use the bookie's point of view, it makes it easier for me to know which betting options are best for me.

This makes sense for the most part but it's not something that will work out for you all the time, if it was that simple then people would be winning all of their bets but they don't because even though these bookies are experts in determining which team to assign which odd to they still don't have a fixed control on how things will work out for them, human error is a thing and will dismantle anything you think is set in stone, it's good to follow the odds but don't think they are guaranteed.

Bookmakers make their profit primarily through the margin they build into the odds and through how well they understand player psychology. These are the main factors that allow bookmakers to stay profitable. As for bettors, there are even some who manage to win by finding value in the odds offered. Of course, bookmakers have spent decades, if not longer, learning how to set odds, and I think they are very good at it. But they don’t always get it perfectly right. Still, I believe that because of the margin, bookmakers will always have the long-term edge over players.

[Grace333]

Op I think your idea of overthinking as related to confident doesn't look too related. Having confidence of winning a game is more of knowing based on performance and stat like you mentioned but when it comes to overthinking it is majorly related to the after result especially when it's combined with regret then you basically will overthinking how the whole incident happened and how much you lost. Overthinking is also accompanied by irresponsible gambling behaviors like staking what you cant afford to lose.

[L E G E N D A R Y]

This makes sense for the most part but it's not something that will work out for you all the time, if it was that simple then people would be winning all of their bets but they don't because even though these bookies are experts in determining which team to assign which odd to they still don't have a fixed control on how things will work out for them, human error is a thing and will dismantle anything you think is set in stone, it's good to follow the odds but don't think they are guaranteed.

In gambling, especially in games like sports betting, nothing is really guaranteed. A friend of mine was complaining to me some years ago about how difficult gambling is, about how he has exhausted all his options and still no breakthrough, he then made a commend as he was complaining that made me laugh so hard even though he was dead serious, wallowing in his miseries. He said, he has played everything he knows he can play and he's not playing again, that the casino is now countering every step he takes, that even if he predicts all the players to go into the pitch with soccer boots, that you'll definitely see one player going in with a slippers, this statement really cracked up. But honestly that's true, gambling isn't something anyone can actually get a hang of, or figure out a strategy that'll make you keep winning.

[Rashlyowl]

This makes sense for the most part but it's not something that will work out for you all the time, if it was that simple then people would be winning all of their bets but they don't because even though these bookies are experts in determining which team to assign which odd to they still don't have a fixed control on how things will work out for them, human error is a thing and will dismantle anything you think is set in stone, it's good to follow the odds but don't think they are guaranteed.

I never think that my bets are guaranteed, I also realize that gambling is about luck, not how good we are at analyzing the match. Try to understand again what I said bros @ZeroVinsonN. I said that I use the bookies point of view, not like a normal gambler, you know, on May 9 I won my Premier League bet, it happened on the Brighton match, I was sure with the big handicap that Wolverhampton got, there are many gamblers who choose Wolverhampton, but that didn't happen to me, instead of having Wolverhampton, I chose Brighton.

[Webutxo]

Thinking that we are more expert than the odds makers is a mistake, obviously they are the ones who make them, meaning they have data & statistics before making the odds. Therefore, when I gamble, I usually use the bookie's point of view, it makes it easier for me to know which betting options are best for me.

There is nothing we can do about trying to be like bookmakers, we can never be like them because when they make decisions on odds, they gave it in a way that it will be very hard for people to do. It's better you accept that you are only trying your best to your own knowledge of stats and what the teams are playing at that particular time but you can never beat bookmakers, they are business people that play with the mind of bettors to get money from them.

As long as casino games are difficult to win, gamblers doesn't stand a chance when it comes to gambling but here is one thing, if you know how to play with predictions and you know you good and by that I mean people that have good precision, they are the people that do have edge. Even if games becomes hard to get and difficult to predict, everyday can't be for bookmakers, there are days they lose, such days are the days that if you stake high with high odds, you make life changing money.

[junder]

Lots of people have lost so big just because they were so confident about the bet which they placed, but things didn’t go as they planned it, and they ended up losing. It’s has happened to me multiple times before, and I know if you are a gambler, you will have experienced something like this before. When you are gambling, always gamble with any amount you can afford to lose, even if you are so confident about your bet, don’t always gamble blindly because sometimes you might just be wrong, but if you gamble with what you can afford to lose, it’s not going to affect you even if things don’t go as you plan.

Well, it’s gambling after all, so losing money is bound to happen, and the amount depends on the individual gambler whether they bet large sums or not. I don’t think it’s possible to avoid losses when gambling, because that’s something no player can do.
The best advice is exactly what you said don’t bet recklessly, because we don’t know if we’ll win or not, but one thing is certain losses are inevitable.

[Somto9Light]

Well, it’s gambling after all, so losing money is bound to happen, and the amount depends on the individual gambler whether they bet large sums or not. I don’t think it’s possible to avoid losses when gambling, because that’s something no player can do.
The best advice is exactly what you said don’t bet recklessly, because we don’t know if we’ll win or not, but one thing is certain losses are inevitable.

In gambling, the goal shouldn't be to avoid losses completely, but to avoid losing too much. gamblers can't stop the losses because it's an inevitable aspect of the game just as you rightly said, but what we can control is how much we can lose in gambling. When  gambler gambles within their means, they stand a better chance of avoiding reckless losses, this way you won't feel the losses at all.

[rachael9385]

Thinking that we are more expert than the odds makers is a mistake, obviously they are the ones who make them, meaning they have data & statistics before making the odds. Therefore, when I gamble, I usually use the bookie's point of view, it makes it easier for me to know which betting options are best for me.

You have a point here, there is no way we can be a master of the game no matter how good we might be when it comes to analyzing but it is better not to do your analysis only based on the bookies point of view, try as much as possible to look at other sources because the bookies might not really give you a complete information.

[Betwrong]

~ Oddsmakers know what could possibly happen, and they set the line based on that. In the end, the sharp side still wins most of the time. ~

I’m just curious — do you think odds are set by real people all the time? I mean, you know that odds are constantly changing, and there are tons of games on a gambling site. Do you think all those odds are controlled by real people every minute? Or by ‘oddsmakers,’ did you mean computers, and I just misunderstood?

[Judith87403]

You have a point here, there is no way we can be a master of the game no matter how good we might be when it comes to analyzing but it is better not to do your analysis only based on the bookies point of view, try as much as possible to look at other sources because the bookies might not really give you a complete information.

Of course, the bookie are not the gambler's friend, so they literally don't want you to win, they in fact wants the odds to work against the players, so they literally won't give you any comprehensive analytical tools for players to make their predictions, so it's left for the players to do their due diligence before making any decisions, but let's still not get it twisted, even if our analysis may appear to be almost perfect, we shouldn't let our guard downw

[TheUltraElite]

In gambling, the goal shouldn't be to avoid losses completely, but to avoid losing too much. gamblers can't stop the losses because it's an inevitable aspect of the game just as you rightly said, but what we can control is how much we can lose in gambling. When  gambler gambles within their means, they stand a better chance of avoiding reckless losses, this way you won't feel the losses at all.

We can avoid some losses and get hit by the rest of the losses. If the wins are enough to be covered by the losses then we can sustain but this is difficult to do in the long run. Overthinking comes from the root cause of having lost money previously on gambling and this is an expected response from the players. The ones who are playing for long always think twice but they cannot stop gambling completely because of the loss on their heads which they think they can recover.

Playing within their means is a good step, but breaking that is the norm. This should be avoided as far as possible.

[iv4n]

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end? That is usually because we are overthinking.

So the level of your confidence affect the game results? Good for you & anyone who thinks this is possible...

Don't overthink -WIN

Maybe it's better to say, don't overthink - make a move, make a bet. Even better if you can continue to behave in the same way, don't overthink it, make a move and wait for the result... maybe you will win, maybe not, but there's always another day. So don't spend everything you have just because you feel too confident... It's just your feeling, and your feeling can fuck you up more than anything or anyone else.