Don't overthink -WIN

[Sandra_hakeem]

These things do happen every time and just like you’ve decided to exemplify a game from yesterday,
I’ll tell you the same was in the UCL Bayern Munich vs PSG fixture. There was no way anyone would have believed that the game would end in a draw or PSG would be taking the lead for 90minutes of the play. Every one thought it was a day for Bayern Munich to dominate and lead for most of the game if not win the match, the bookies had the odds at 1.64 for Bayern and 5.30 for PSG but still, PSG were such a force in that game and Bayern Munich end up struggling for a draw.

It’s not a about our confidence, it’s just the field of play making the deciders.

About the UCL, I haven't recovered yet from the shock of what happened (I didn't make any bets, but almost everyone was disappointed by the outcome too). This is why every gambler needs to understand that no matter how predictable the game looks, at the end of the day, there's a higher chance that you might be wrong. I thought that was an opportunity for Bayern to step up and contest for the UCl title, one of which has not been in their possession since 2020. The Meisterschale is not enough IMO.

[o48o]

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end? That is usually because we are overthinking. We focus too much on the stats we see and think that is already enough to win, but in reality, it is not that simple. The oddsmakers also know those stats, and they set the line based on how people are likely going to think.

Let me give an example from the games yesterday.

First game was Sixers vs Knicks. In Game 1, the Knicks won by more than 30 points, so in the next game with almost the same opening line, people probably thought it would be another blowout. Sixers were not playing good in the first meeting, and with Embiid announced out, most bettors would easily think this was a sure win for the Knicks. But what happened? Sixers were +7.5 and only lost by 6 points. Even if you bet them in the first half, Sixers still covered the handicap.

Second game was Spurs vs Wolves. Spurs lost to the Wolves in Game 1, and the line was around -9.5 for Spurs. People probably thought that was too high because the Wolves already beat them, so taking Wolves +9.5 looked easy. But what happened? Spurs beat the Wolves by 30+ points.

So with that, we can see that this is really a business. Oddsmakers know what could possibly happen, and they set the line based on that. In the end, the sharp side still wins most of the time.

So if you are interested in my thoughts today, I have the Cavaliers +3.5. That line looks too low to me, and I think many people will believe the Pistons can win again because they are at home.

If someone thinks that they lost games just because they didn't trust their confidence, it's because they think that their change of mind is somehow related.
Would you say that if someone changes their mind because they are "overthinking", would be smart if they won that bet? Because in same way, that overthinking comes from your instinct to predict the outcome.

Also, why would odds be connected to how people think? People think that some result is more likely then another because of past results, they have reason to think so. They are same reasons as the bookmakers have.

[Dunamisx]

Winning in gambling is not what we can overthink, it comes to us naturally and even in most times when we least expect it, we should also not relent on our effort as part of what could grant us the privilege of winning when we gamble, because as we anticipate for winning, we are also expected to have it in mind that we may not see this happening but otherwise, and the best approach to gambling is by taking it as a means of entertainment whereby we have fun playing irrespective of the outcome to win or lose.

[Queen uloma]

You are right. Overthinking is just another way of giving yourself very high expectations for your games, such that when things don't go as expected, the loss hurts even deeper. Everyone wants to win, but I would rather advise that they keep an open mind. Analyze your bets well, be confident, enjoy the process, bet with what you can afford to lose, and relax. Whatever the outcome is, accept it and move on. No overthinking, no high expectations, and no overconfidence because the game can take a different turn even with all the effort put into it.
Gambling is unpredictable, so you cannot be so sure it will go as you have predicted.

You’re very correct, overthinking is one of the major things that affect people in gambling. Once you put too much expectation from any game that you bet, and then you encounter any small losses it will look like the world had come to an end, which is not supposed to be so. So the best mind set is to be calm and free your mind. Be sure of your game very well, and enjoy the process. Always remember that you can only invest with money you can afford to lose. Over Confidence can deceive someone to lose more because gambling does not guarantee steady profit. No matter how you are very  sure about the game, and no matter how you predict it you will still face loses.

[Pumpsta]

What you are saying is that we should bet base on our instinct and not the data or the odds given to us? I don't think that it will make us millionaires in a week though as it is not also a assurance that it's going to work, in short it's a hit or miss.

No, it's just what op says & i put out a challenge to prove anybody who thinks he's right (and like everybody here seems to think he is) that he's actually wrong

[ZeroVinsonN]

This makes sense for the most part but it's not something that will work out for you all the time, if it was that simple then people would be winning all of their bets but they don't because even though these bookies are experts in determining which team to assign which odd to they still don't have a fixed control on how things will work out for them, human error is a thing and will dismantle anything you think is set in stone, it's good to follow the odds but don't think they are guaranteed.

I never think that my bets are guaranteed, I also realize that gambling is about luck, not how good we are at analyzing the match. Try to understand again what I said bros @ZeroVinsonN. I said that I use the bookies point of view, not like a normal gambler, you know, on May 9 I won my Premier League bet, it happened on the Brighton match, I was sure with the big handicap that Wolverhampton got, there are many gamblers who choose Wolverhampton, but that didn't happen to me, instead of having Wolverhampton, I chose Brighton.

I have absolutely nothing against your choices, I'm just saying that even with all that winning still isn't guaranteed, anyone can employ what ever strategy they believe will give them the win and if it works for them then who am I to condemn it, plus playing by the odds is still the most likely way to win it is not guaranteed but it is more likely, and that why teams that are more likely to win are given way smaller odds than their opponents, it's simply the logical thing to do.

[LOVER BOY 422]

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end? That is usually because we are overthinking. We focus too much on the stats we see and think that is already enough to win, but in reality, it is not that simple. The oddsmakers also know those stats, and they set the line based on how people are likely going to think.

Let me give an example from the games yesterday.

First game was Sixers vs Knicks. In Game 1, the Knicks won by more than 30 points, so in the next game with almost the same opening line, people probably thought it would be another blowout. Sixers were not playing good in the first meeting, and with Embiid announced out, most bettors would easily think this was a sure win for the Knicks. But what happened? Sixers were +7.5 and only lost by 6 points. Even if you bet them in the first half, Sixers still covered the handicap.

Second game was Spurs vs Wolves. Spurs lost to the Wolves in Game 1, and the line was around -9.5 for Spurs. People probably thought that was too high because the Wolves already beat them, so taking Wolves +9.5 looked easy. But what happened? Spurs beat the Wolves by 30+ points.

So with that, we can see that this is really a business. Oddsmakers know what could possibly happen, and they set the line based on that. In the end, the sharp side still wins most of the time.

So if you are interested in my thoughts today, I have the Cavaliers +3.5. That line looks too low to me, and I think many people will believe the Pistons can win again because they are at home.

While in line with what you are saying, everyone in gambling will always think that way , since you have decided to gamble will definitely wish your self well become wishes brings more good deeds or luck in regards.
But in gambling world if a game doesn't finish never be happy because the list team can win at anytime soon , I have played a game when the the lesser team was lossing and the higher team winning but to my greatest surprise the game turned in favour of the smaller team , this just exactly what you are explaining.

[Bright0515]

Winning in gambling is not what we can overthink, it comes to us naturally and even in most times when we least expect it, we should also not relent on our effort as part of what could grant us the privilege of winning when we gamble, because as we anticipate for winning, we are also expected to have it in mind that we may not see this happening but otherwise, and the best approach to gambling is by taking it as a means of entertainment whereby we have fun playing irrespective of the outcome to win or lose.

The truth about gamble is that if we get too attached to winning or let's say the money we will get from gamble then we are actually doing ourselves more harm than good because winning doesn't just come but it only does come when the gambler is extremely lucky. In most cases, a gambler can experience a cut one (9/10) from his bet and such thing literally makes the gambler increase his stake or chase after his losses because such thing is actually looks like a near miss.

[eisen33]

I have absolutely nothing against your choices, I'm just saying that even with all that winning still isn't guaranteed, anyone can employ what ever strategy they believe will give them the win and if it works for them then who am I to condemn it, plus playing by the odds is still the most likely way to win it is not guaranteed but it is more likely, and that why teams that are more likely to win are given way smaller odds than their opponents, it's simply the logical thing to do.

You can’t make bets based only on low odds, because favorites lose too, and they lose quite often. That also means that there can be many mistakes in the pre-match odds set by bookmakers. Before placing a bet, you need to evaluate how important the match is for the favorite, or whether they already have a comfortable points advantage and may save energy for a more important upcoming game. So, low odds can never guarantee you a win.

[abaeze]

In gambling or sports betting, one cannot predict completely correctly, no matter how much one thinks or analyzes. On the other hand, one should not blindly bet without any statistical analysis or planning because the job of a bettor is not to ensure the future but to stand on the side of probability. Even if one makes the correct decision, one can often lose in the short term. Therefore, the most important thing in betting is mental strength. Everyone invests money more or less, but those who are more prudent and stable mentally can make the right decision to pull the probability in their direction.

[Nahl]

I know over confident will makes us to put high expectation to our bets but if we weren't confident to our analysis for the games then eventually we won't dare to bets on the sports we want because fear to lost and i think when the gamblers put their money to gamble certainly they were confident can won it and put the expectation is being normal because the reason people to gamble because want to earn money but indeed we should be realize that confidence will not makes us more luck because in gambling especially for sport betting even the favourite will have possibility to lost

[POPOLUV]

You are right. If we do not decide the next match based on the results of the previous match, it can be a loss for us. There are many bettors who assume that the same thing will happen again by winning or losing by 30 points. But as you said, bookmakers also know how we think. The main problem here is overconfidence.
Just like when we play casino and slot games, after winning the first time, we think that we will win this time too, then the more we bet, the more we lose.

Gambling is always a game of luck, because there is know gambler that will say he is professional as far as gambling is concerned, so if see any gamblers predicting base on the previous matches been played by those teams he will want to predict, i will not blame such gamblers base on say sports betting has no professionalism, and overthinking has make me try many options in gambling just to to make sure that i experience winning for the very first time in gambling during my those years back. And overconfidence games can be disappointed most times, but those one you will be having two though of not being such of not playing the way predict them, end up playing for you and the painful part is that, you will refuse to stake those games because there is overconfidence on those games and when they are play freely, you will be blaming yourself of not playing those games that you weren't sure of.

[danadc]

What you are saying is that we should bet base on our instinct and not the data or the odds given to us? I don't think that it will make us millionaires in a week though as it is not also a assurance that it's going to work, in short it's a hit or miss.

No, it's just what op says & i put out a challenge to prove anybody who thinks he's right (and like everybody here seems to think he is) that he's actually wrong

The criteria for betting can be many, from the most scientific to the most cosmic or any other style; it depends a lot on the type of player we are and what we decide to believe in. When I'm at the casino, I don't rack my brain, I don't suffer, I know it's luck, so I make my playing strategies and have fun. After that, once I've reached my maximum, I don't play anymore, I quit. But in sports betting, there's analysis, there are more theories; it's more delicate there because the probabilities of winning are much higher.

[sotelorene]

What you are saying is that we should bet base on our instinct and not the data or the odds given to us? I don't think that it will make us millionaires in a week though as it is not also a assurance that it's going to work, in short it's a hit or miss.

No, it's just what op says & i put out a challenge to prove anybody who thinks he's right (and like everybody here seems to think he is) that he's actually wrong

The criteria for betting can be many, from the most scientific to the most cosmic or any other style; it depends a lot on the type of player we are and what we decide to believe in. When I'm at the casino, I don't rack my brain, I don't suffer, I know it's luck, so I make my playing strategies and have fun. After that, once I've reached my maximum, I don't play anymore, I quit. But in sports betting, there's analysis, there are more theories; it's more delicate there because the probabilities of winning are much higher.

Yea almost all Casino, luck plays a big role even in sport betting but in sports betting some gamblers has what we call skill but the skill doesn't guarantee winning though it can help reduce loss and also take us sometimes to a near mis which sometimes I don't really like because its hurt more to have a near miss than not to have it at all that is losing at start or in the middle of the game while it's running. I don't really like Casino because I ain't go at it and doesn't favor me like sports betting.

[Finestream]

Yea almost all Casino, luck plays a big role even in sport betting but in sports betting some gamblers has what we call skill but the skill doesn't guarantee winning though it can help reduce loss and also take us sometimes to a near mis which sometimes I don't really like because its hurt more to have a near miss than not to have it at all that is losing at start or in the middle of the game while it's running. I don't really like Casino because I ain't go at it and doesn't favor me like sports betting.

Let’s just stick with sports betting here, because casino games require a different kind of treatment.

With sports betting, it is not pure luck. Anyone can be profitable in the long run if they really have the skills. But those skills should be justified by actual results, not just by what the bettor claims or believes. And even if you are winning now, you still cannot immediately conclude that you really have the skill. It is a long journey. Being profitable long term, with a clear record to back it up, that is the only time you can make a real conclusion.

[Perfectbaby]

Let’s just stick with sports betting here, because casino games require a different kind of treatment.

With sports betting, it is not pure luck. Anyone can be profitable in the long run if they really have the skills. But those skills should be justified by actual results, not just by what the bettor claims or believes. And even if you are winning now, you still cannot immediately conclude that you really have the skill. It is a long journey. Being profitable long term, with a clear record to back it up, that is the only time you can make a real conclusion.

For a long time results then we should also be looking at some important factors which includes; patient, self control, bankroll management and moderate gambling. If you must position yourself for that then such person need those characteristics to profits for a long time where they wouldn't be that too desperate to make winning at a short term, this mostly makes it to be that entertaining and not just purely based on profits expectations.

[Floxynice]

You are right. Overthinking is just another way of giving yourself very high expectations for your games, such that when things don't go as expected, the loss hurts even deeper. Everyone wants to win, but I would rather advise that they keep an open mind. Analyze your bets well, be confident, enjoy the process, bet with what you can afford to lose, and relax. Whatever the outcome is, accept it and move on. No overthinking, no high expectations, and no overconfidence because the game can take a different turn even with all the effort put into it.
Gambling is unpredictable, so you cannot be so sure it will go as you have predicted.

You’re very correct, overthinking is one of the major things that affect people in gambling. Once you put too much expectation from any game that you bet, and then you encounter any small losses it will look like the world had come to an end, which is not supposed to be so. So the best mind set is to be calm and free your mind. Be sure of your game very well, and enjoy the process. Always remember that you can only invest with money you can afford to lose. Over Confidence can deceive someone to lose more because gambling does not guarantee steady profit. No matter how you are very  sure about the game, and no matter how you predict it you will still face loses.

I personally do not think that it is wise for anyone who has many thoughts running through his mind to go ahead gambling, especially if those thoughts make losing scare him a lot. If someone is afraid of losing, he can decide not to play at all and avoid risking money he cannot afford to lose.

When a person gambles, what he needs is confidence, a stable state of mind, and an open mindset to accept whatever the outcome may be. Overthinking things does not make one win; it only puts unnecessary pressure on the person.

[Cityhunter34]

You are absolutely correct, that is the real truth about it. It is never a good idea to overthink the game because it will usually go the other way around. Sometimes we get lucky with the games we didn't overthink at all, and that's exactly what gambling works. Gamblers should approach gambling as fun and entertainment, not as a way to money overnight. That only happens when luck is on your side. Notting eses can guarantee you winnings in gambling.

[Powerjumboo]

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end? That is usually because we are overthinking. We focus too much on the stats we see and think that is already enough to win, but in reality, it is not that simple. The oddsmakers also know those stats, and they set the line based on how people are likely going to think.

There are many more or less confident people who overthink and become so confident about some games that they always think that they will definitely win the game but lose at the last moment. I have definitely been in such a situation. I have been in such a situation a few times. I always thought that I would win today's bet but in the end I had to lose that bet. Here, overconfidence actually forces us to do such a situation. Actually, overconfidence is necessary in sports betting because without overconfidence, we would never be able to bet.

[monetizator4]

I agree that keeping an open mind helps. Sometimes it's hard not to get too attached to outcomes, especially when you're having streaks of good luck or loss. Just remember, every bet is a new chance. Stay focused on your strategy and the fun part, watching the games! Overthinking can cloud judgment