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Author Topic: Don't overthink -WIN  (Read 1486 times)
Dr.Bitcoin_Strange
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May 17, 2026, 10:07:34 AM
 #201

I bet a lot of money on a team because I was pretty sure of winning through analysis. I was pretty sure that I was going to win this bet and I had also planned where and how I would use the money in the bet, but in the end I had to lose that bet.
Actually, the matter is very sad as well as disappointing. Because many times a sure win turns into a defeat. However, such incidents are not observed very often.

At the early days when I newly started sports betting, that was when I normally process the means of spending my expected wins even when the games have not started playing yet, most of the times, I end up losing the bets and being disappointed but it made me learn so much about betting, despite that this is a game of skill, luck is very much needed and wins are never guaranteed no matter how sure the game looks. Never stake with a huge amount that you can not afford to lose even if you are very confident on the outcome because there's every chance of losing the game.

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May 17, 2026, 10:45:32 AM
 #202


At the early days when I newly started sports betting, that was when I normally process the means of spending my expected wins even when the games have not started playing yet, most of the times, I end up losing the bets and being disappointed but it made me learn so much about betting, despite that this is a game of skill, luck is very much needed and wins are never guaranteed no matter how sure the game looks. Never stake with a huge amount that you can not afford to lose even if you are very confident on the outcome because there's every chance of losing the game.

That’s true, you should never bet more money, even if you are very confident in the pick. I would also add that you should not place bets when your mind is occupied with other important problems that you need to deal with and that do not give you peace of mind. That can also distract you from properly focusing on the analysis and the selection of a bet. It is better to first take care of your main responsibilities and only then think about betting. Betting is not going anywhere.

R


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May 17, 2026, 11:05:26 AM
 #203


At the early days when I newly started sports betting, that was when I normally process the means of spending my expected wins even when the games have not started playing yet, most of the times, I end up losing the bets and being disappointed but it made me learn so much about betting, despite that this is a game of skill, luck is very much needed and wins are never guaranteed no matter how sure the game looks. Never stake with a huge amount that you can not afford to lose even if you are very confident on the outcome because there's every chance of losing the game.

That’s true, you should never bet more money, even if you are very confident in the pick. I would also add that you should not place bets when your mind is occupied with other important problems that you need to deal with and that do not give you peace of mind. That can also distract you from properly focusing on the analysis and the selection of a bet. It is better to first take care of your main responsibilities and only then think about betting. Betting is not going anywhere.

Oh, that's good to point out. Never bet if you are in a state of thinking about many things. I agree with that. It's the same as drunk betting. Because they are drunk, most of the time they make errors in their bet.

There are times when our mind is somewhere else, and I think we should avoid gambling, even in sports betting, if we are in that state of mind. We may not be overthinking, but we are also not focused on what we are doing, which means a mistake can happen either in our bet or the amount we will input. I have my share of those mistakes, and I think that because my mind is flying. It's actually the amount of the bet where I made a mistake, and up until now, I cannot forget about it.

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sotelorene
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May 17, 2026, 11:41:47 AM
 #204


At the early days when I newly started sports betting, that was when I normally process the means of spending my expected wins even when the games have not started playing yet, most of the times, I end up losing the bets and being disappointed but it made me learn so much about betting, despite that this is a game of skill, luck is very much needed and wins are never guaranteed no matter how sure the game looks. Never stake with a huge amount that you can not afford to lose even if you are very confident on the outcome because there's every chance of losing the game.

That’s true, you should never bet more money, even if you are very confident in the pick. I would also add that you should not place bets when your mind is occupied with other important problems that you need to deal with and that do not give you peace of mind. That can also distract you from properly focusing on the analysis and the selection of a bet. It is better to first take care of your main responsibilities and only then think about betting. Betting is not going anywhere.

Since sport betting is among the game of luck I don't think having other things in mind while predicting or analyzing our bet will distract us though I don't know about others but I don't think it will distract me since I already know the strength of the teams or club I want to select it will be easy pizzy for me. However, our state of mind doesn't really determined whether we will win or not but rather luck is what determines if we are going to win or lose because I have placed a bet when I was not focused yet I  won.











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May 17, 2026, 12:23:52 PM
 #205

I agree in gambling overconfidence is usually more dangerous than bad analysis. Our brain starts looking only at the safe side of the bet. Specially in sports betting peoples see stats and last game results and also injuries etc. But sports are emotional and unpredictable .The oddsmakers who already know what most people are thinking take benefit from it  and the line is built around public psychology not just team strength. So a lot of times the trap is not the game itself but it is the confidence.
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May 17, 2026, 12:50:03 PM
 #206

I agree in gambling overconfidence is usually more dangerous than bad analysis. Our brain starts looking only at the safe side of the bet. Specially in sports betting peoples see stats and last game results and also injuries etc. But sports are emotional and unpredictable .The oddsmakers who already know what most people are thinking take benefit from it  and the line is built around public psychology not just team strength. So a lot of times the trap is not the game itself but it is the confidence.
The end result of a game is not predictable but only 50% predictable. We might be able to appear as masters in this prediction game but this is truly not the case. Quite a few factors hinder our winning and this is why the gambling industry thrives on prediction markets and also EV- games.

Hence what I said in my previous comment, sometimes just bet and get it over with, you will not be able to analyze and win everything, you are bound to lose, this is not a college exam where you can study hard and get good marks.

 
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May 17, 2026, 01:15:07 PM
 #207

If only confidence is all you need as a gambler to start having the right results, but unfortunately that's a big lie, you having confidence in a match doesn't mean that you will win, there are countless gamblers who believed in their picks and they still lose.

If you talking about confidence what about power? Because power is a thing over confidence and yet no amount of power even if it's spiritual can make you win, because luck doesn't bow for any power.

If this is wrong, all voodoo practitioners will be the most richest people in the world, seers would be taking the lead in everything around the world, luck is not anyone's tool.

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May 17, 2026, 01:32:34 PM
 #208

I agree in gambling overconfidence is usually more dangerous than bad analysis. Our brain starts looking only at the safe side of the bet. Specially in sports betting peoples see stats and last game results and also injuries etc. But sports are emotional and unpredictable .The oddsmakers who already know what most people are thinking take benefit from it  and the line is built around public psychology not just team strength. So a lot of times the trap is not the game itself but it is the confidence.
Therefore I always advise to gamble do not always want victory and profit, no matter how hard you make analysis and see a lot of data will not all be a guarantee of victory in your bets, that belief must be but with good self-control, here the importance of personality in managing yourself in seeing things.
 
I believe the odds makers also look at public opinion, but they still don't know which one will win and lose. They only calculate probabilities and that's why there are different odds between win, lose and draw.

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May 17, 2026, 01:56:47 PM
 #209

Within the world of betting both things, overthinking and not thinking at all can lead to underperforming, that is a fact.
Those who think too much and over analyze their next move actually get more tired than the average person and they feel the money they get is has cost them more.

Obviously, those who do not think at all are just throwing their money at the darkness and expecting to get something back, not technical analysis,  no research, no risk management, nothing at all.

One needs to find one's sweet spot, in which one is not burning one's neurons while trying to be consistent while betting, but also not to neglect that is fundamentally important to get that consistency.

There's nothing bad being a over thinker when come to gambling , most folks use it to make their gambling routine more better . Those who are over thinking are usually scared of losing their funds , so they always think in all possible way they can reduce their chances of winning and same time prioritising risk management.

While those that are over confident, to point that they don't need to think much, are the ones that usually undergo most of the losses , because they don't take their time to think things through first .

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May 17, 2026, 03:34:33 PM
 #210

Never stake with a huge amount that you can not afford to lose even if you are very confident on the outcome because there's every chance of losing the game.
That is the truth amount it. Because over confident has made gamblers loss plenty time. Making analysis and few homework before betting is good but we have to leave the rest for luck. If Manchester City is playing with Liverpool today, we all have the confident that Manchester City will win the match and the odds for man City will be smaller and Liverpool will be higher. But things might change and the match draw. Gamblers will lose their bets. That how gambling is.

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May 17, 2026, 04:33:47 PM
 #211

At the early days when I newly started sports betting, that was when I normally process the means of spending my expected wins even when the games have not started playing yet, most of the times, I end up losing the bets and being disappointed but it made me learn so much about betting, despite that this is a game of skill, luck is very much needed and wins are never guaranteed no matter how sure the game looks. Never stake with a huge amount that you can not afford to lose even if you are very confident on the outcome because there's every chance of losing the game.
Yes, this can be good advice for gamblers. When a person gambles beyond his means, then the person who loses in a bet is the one who suffers the most. Many times, due to unforeseen circumstances in gambling, many people think that the chances of winning are high and they bet a lot of money thinking that if they win this bet, they will win a lot of money, then they forget that there is a lot of certainty in gambling, that is, there is no guarantee of winning. And when a person starts thinking about how to spend the winning money after betting and later when he loses, he becomes even more upset, that is, mentally breaks down.

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May 17, 2026, 04:43:40 PM
 #212

Have you ever been in a situation where you were too confident on a game, but still lost in the end? That is usually because we are overthinking. We focus too much on the stats we see and think that is already enough to win, but in reality, it is not that simple. The oddsmakers also know those stats, and they set the line based on how people are likely going to think.

Yeah, I was in this situation sometimes  Cause we are human beings, and no matter how hard you try to control over your emotions, it's just not happening at all . I think I enjoy these incident , these reminded me that gambling is always gambling no matter how much your skill is sharp you just cant control every game you play

Quote
Let me give an example from the games yesterday.
First game was Sixers vs Knicks. In Game 1, the Knicks won by more than 30 points, so in the next game with almost the same opening line, people probably thought it would be another blowout. Sixers were not playing good in the first meeting, and with Embiid announced out, most bettors would easily think this was a sure win for the Knicks. But what happened? Sixers were +7.5 and only lost by 6 points. Even if you bet them in the first half, Sixers still covered the handicap.


I think this was so much uncertainty and bad luck for games. If you pull the statistics, how many games are like this, maybe then we can compare if it's really bad luck or statistically approved. Games are often hard to predict , and these uncertain can happen. If you dont become blind over your emotion than you can easily handle these losses and tackle themon your next bet.

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May 17, 2026, 05:03:08 PM
 #213

There's nothing bad being a over thinker when come to gambling , most folks use it to make their gambling routine more better . Those who are over thinking are usually scared of losing their funds , so they always think in all possible way they can reduce their chances of winning and same time prioritising risk management.

While those that are over confident, to point that they don't need to think much, are the ones that usually undergo most of the losses , because they don't take their time to think things through first .
Overthinking is not gonna solve any problem instead it will make things get more worst, that's why they have to have good idea about gambling, as to make things right and don't need to have trouble with their betting habit because everything will be under controlled and even make the game more enjoyable and bring in less problem for them. Which is why they got to help themselves by keeping their emotions balanced, as it will help in reducing their stress.

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May 17, 2026, 05:16:33 PM
 #214

If only confidence is all you need as a gambler to start having the right results, but unfortunately that's a big lie, you having confidence in a match doesn't mean that you will win, there are countless gamblers who believed in their picks and they still lose.

If you talking about confidence what about power? Because power is a thing over confidence and yet no amount of power even if it's spiritual can make you win, because luck doesn't bow for any power.

If this is wrong, all voodoo practitioners will be the most richest people in the world, seers would be taking the lead in everything around the world, luck is not anyone's tool.
You are right, having confidence won't change anything as gambling is based on luck and this, should no one joke about because having that confidence towards gambling will make things worse for them and this will even create more problems for them, as gambling will keep disappoint them and this will surely lead them into being frustrated and making them to be an addict, that is why people are advised to follow the right path in gambling.

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May 17, 2026, 05:20:54 PM
 #215

Honestly overthinking is causing anxiety and depression for person, and that’s why what ever situations that he/she find themselves the best thing is too remain silent and pray for better days ahead than thinking about different things; most of the gambles done analysis their bets well which is why most of they lose and when their losing instead of them to think wisely and reduce the money they use bet, but they will be thinking that if they bet with large amounts of money the return will be higher they don’t know that the gambling doesn’t works in that way.
Some gamblers will start calculating how much will be their profits if they win the game and that will make them not think twice before using big amount of money to stake on the game. Don't always think about profit all the time that you want to gamble so that, you can be able to gamble responsible. Gambling isn't a bed of roses.

A lot of persons has made bad decisions because of that mindset, once someone start to be calculating profits and even mentally spending the money before the game start, then they could make bad decision... That’s why many people even end up staking amount they are not supposed to use, because they think, they’ve already won the game, that it’s guaranteed..
You can be more responsible with gambling by not focusing  much on the profit side and accept that anything can happen…
There are some gamblers who support teams based on the difference in odds but there is no guarantee that those teams will actually win. Odds will not always give you win in gambling that is why those who look at the odds will make a mistake in choosing which team is good or bad. Gamblers are not 100% certain of any betting strategy, so one should bet in such a way that a loss would disrupt normal gambling. There is a temptation in most gamblers to prioritize profit when placing bets. In the hope of more profit even where the odds are low is another big mistake. There is no chance to think that winning is guaranteed when it comes to betting. If one bets only with the idea of ​​winning, one is bound to lose.

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May 17, 2026, 05:24:25 PM
 #216

I bet a lot of money on a team because I was pretty sure of winning through analysis. I was pretty sure that I was going to win this bet and I had also planned where and how I would use the money in the bet, but in the end I had to lose that bet.
Actually, the matter is very sad as well as disappointing. Because many times a sure win turns into a defeat. However, such incidents are not observed very often.

At the early days when I newly started sports betting, that was when I normally process the means of spending my expected wins even when the games have not started playing yet, most of the times, I end up losing the bets and being disappointed but it made me learn so much about betting, despite that this is a game of skill, luck is very much needed and wins are never guaranteed no matter how sure the game looks. Never stake with a huge amount that you can not afford to lose even if you are very confident on the outcome because there's every chance of losing the game.
Is very important to always put over confidence aside when we are dealing with betting, the most cases that lead gamblers to loses is their inability to choose between facts and what assumptions they have from there on confidence, because even though that you have all the game statistics and analysis in the hands, you shouldn't bet relying o much in that, only be what you can afford and walk away when and if you can in time.

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May 17, 2026, 05:30:03 PM
 #217

I bet a lot of money on a team because I was pretty sure of winning through analysis. I was pretty sure that I was going to win this bet and I had also planned where and how I would use the money in the bet, but in the end I had to lose that bet.
Actually, the matter is very sad as well as disappointing. Because many times a sure win turns into a defeat. However, such incidents are not observed very often.

At the early days when I newly started sports betting, that was when I normally process the means of spending my expected wins even when the games have not started playing yet, most of the times, I end up losing the bets and being disappointed but it made me learn so much about betting, despite that this is a game of skill, luck is very much needed and wins are never guaranteed no matter how sure the game looks. Never stake with a huge amount that you can not afford to lose even if you are very confident on the outcome because there's every chance of losing the game.

Yes I completely agree with you and I have faced such a situation myself and I am doing the same thing at the moment. However I do not bet on all the games and I mostly bet on the games where the chances of winning are much higher. However it is true that if luck is not with us then you can never win. I have bet on Real Madrid and lost several times, especially in those matches where Real Madrid has a chance of winning above 80%. So no matter how much we speculate, if luck is not with us then we will never win.
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May 17, 2026, 06:01:11 PM
 #218

If only confidence is all you need as a gambler to start having the right results, but unfortunately that's a big lie, you having confidence in a match doesn't mean that you will win, there are countless gamblers who believed in their picks and they still lose.

If you talking about confidence what about power? Because power is a thing over confidence and yet no amount of power even if it's spiritual can make you win, because luck doesn't bow for any power.

If this is wrong, all voodoo practitioners will be the most richest people in the world, seers would be taking the lead in everything around the world, luck is not anyone's tool.
You are right, having confidence won't change anything as gambling is based on luck and this, should no one joke about because having that confidence towards gambling will make things worse for them and this will even create more problems for them, as gambling will keep disappoint them and this will surely lead them into being frustrated and making them to be an addict, that is why people are advised to follow the right path in gambling.

Yeah, exactly. Confidence itself is not a bad thing though, nobody is saying people should not have confidence..  In fact, confidence is important in some areas in life. But when it comes to gambling, the main thing is understanding that confidence cannot change the outcome of a game.. Knowing that can actually help a lot because it keeps you more realistic and more careful with decisions…

It is not a good idea to be carried away and feel over confident after a wins..  Once you can understand that gambling is still based on luck no matter how confident you are, it becomes easier to stay disciplined and avoid chasing losses…

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May 17, 2026, 06:21:58 PM
 #219


Yes I completely agree with you and I have faced such a situation myself and I am doing the same thing at the moment. However I do not bet on all the games and I mostly bet on the games where the chances of winning are much higher. However it is true that if luck is not with us then you can never win. I have bet on Real Madrid and lost several times, especially in those matches where Real Madrid has a chance of winning above 80%. So no matter how much we speculate, if luck is not with us then we will never win.
What is most important is for gamblers to gamble wisely to reduce the possibility of losing too much money to betting.
You can lose a lot of money when you are betting on every games you think you can make profits form without comparing your bankroll to what you think you can win from betting on those games one after the other.

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May 17, 2026, 10:28:20 PM
 #220


Yes, this can be good advice for gamblers. When a person gambles beyond his means, then the person who loses in a bet is the one who suffers the most. Many times, due to unforeseen circumstances in gambling, many people think that the chances of winning are high and they bet a lot of money thinking that if they win this bet, they will win a lot of money, then they forget that there is a lot of certainty in gambling, that is, there is no guarantee of winning. And when a person starts thinking about how to spend the winning money after betting and later when he loses, he becomes even more upset, that is, mentally breaks down.
And that's why we shouldn't trust 100% in what they call secure gateways, because they aren't secure, and this is something that's obvious, noticeable, and besides, it's why many groups take over this market to deceive others. That's why those on Telegram and all that scam people because they think they have privileged information and they use that to deceive them. That's what we need to be careful about.

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