The 4 years cycle isn't "Dead" but modified.

[Sunshine1525]

I saw a news about Michael Saylor's Strategy thinking of selling some of it's holdings to pay dividends, then i rushed to Saylors handle on twitter to confirm the news but my attention got divided on seeing a pinned post that talked about "the 4 years cycle being dead and bitcoin price is currently driven by cash flow". It was interesting, although I had little doubts so I had to do more research so I don't get misinformed. Well the cycle is not really dead but lots of things changed after much adoptation, you can use the word (modified).
             
                                                         Reasons why some people think it's dead
According to a research i made, some people think it's dead cause institutional cash flow and ETF has now changed the game they buy in bulk like millions in dollars compared to the inflow of early adopters from from 2010  to 2025 when it went beyond the $100k price range. Another reason is that the supply is now weaker in the sense that the demand for Bitcoin is much greater than the supply chain cause those institutions and ETFs have bought enough and offering little supplies to retails and normal individuals.

                                                           Why i think/support that it's not totally dead
The total supply (the 21m supply) is still intact, remains same and would never change even though much has gone to institutions, governments, EFT there would still be supply for retailers. Also, the previous halving mostly occur within March to April which was same in the last halving in 2024 and the price mostly peaks the following year which was also same thing that happened in October 2025 when it got to the recent highest record of 125k, therefore there might have been lots of changes but the mechanism is still same.

                                     In a chain process this is what it looks like in old times and recenty
Old Cycle: Halving - drastic price rise- FOMO - then a dip caused by bear season.
New Cycle: Halving in combination of ETF supply - more liquidity - fluctuation of price like we witnessed this year - gradual dips.

My Conclusion is that the halving is not totally dead like some people think, change is constant but the big players are more in control (accumulate more) based on demand and supply they buy/hold more, a clear understanding is them being "The wave on the tide" but the tide in other words the mechanism is still intact. People only worry cause the price has been fluctuating unlike before now and the change falls back to big players. I would've love to create another topic on how the change favours the middle class/low income earners but it's not very broad cause they can be favoured by DCA, buying consistently till they get to their target.

Note: I'm not saying that big players eg Black rock, Micro strategy etc controls the price of Bitcoin, it's still controlled by demand and supply and retailers also have their own roles to play too.

[Sammysmart001]

No doubt the 4 year cycle no dead just that he just evolve, then it about retail and miners that moves price after halving. But now thing aren’t same ETF & institutions are front load demand so the pumps aren’t same they happen faster.

21M supple haven’t change and again to have it halving now still reduce new coins. I actually love your point on DCA this very important in the middle class. The spirit of consistent buying seriously gives a big chance in other to stack sats

You are doing well I really enjoy the breakdown on the old and new cycle

[casey15]

Honestly, I think “modified” is the perfect word for it, not “dead.” A lot of people expect Bitcoin to behave exactly the same way it did years ago, but the market has grown way beyond that stage.

Back then, retail investors were the major force pushing the market with hype, fear, and FOMO. Now we have ETFs, institutions, and big companies entering with billions of dollars, so naturally the market reacts differently than it used to. That doesn’t mean the 4-year cycle suddenly disappeared, it just means the cycle is evolving as adoption increases.

The halving still reduces new supply like it always has and scarcity is still one of Bitcoin’s biggest strengths. The difference now is that there’s more liquidity and bigger players absorbing supply which can make the market look less explosive and more unpredictable compared to previous cycles.

So personally, I don’t think the cycle is dead at all. I just think Bitcoin is maturing, and the market structure is becoming more complex than before.