Doesn't this look like an AI bubble?

[Free Market Capitalist]

If we look at the end of the chart, I think it clearly indicates FOMO, and as we might expect, it seems that this is at least partly due to AI-related stocks.

Nasdaq: Composite Surges to All-Time High of 26,247 as AI Stocks and Strong Jobs Data Fuel Record Rally

The problem with a chart like this is that you don't know when that near-vertical trend is going to end.

In comparison, if we look at Bitcoin’s price chart over the past few years, it has underperformed slightly, and there’s no sign of FOMO anywhere.



But in any case, it breaks with the past trend in which Bitcoin outperformed the Nasdaq over five-year periods.

What do you think? Could there be a bubble in AI stocks that might burst in the future? If that happened, would it benefit Bitcoin?

[Ucy]

Could depend on how useful AI becomes to the world. I think it would become very useful for the artificial system, but the natural one will become more unpredictable, this is where Bitcoin could easily thrive.
So, it's very likely that this is the time for AI to be more in control of things over there, while Bitcoin would benefit from the increasing instability in natural would.
It's important to note that the usefulness of AI is more restricted to artificial system(not 100% though, since there could be interventions when necessary), while something else rules over natural one.
Nevertheless, you can't be very certain if something else aside AI would change the market dynamics

[alani123]

Well, we've been talking about a tech bubble for a long time now. But it just doesn't come. Go to 2009, the economy was around the time the global financial crisis was unfolding and then GOOG was around $10. Now it's at $400!

This continuous rise has been in part supported by the political establishment because instead of trying to break up monopolies they even support them. See how many subsidies Tesla and SpaceX receive.

Now governments bowed to the lobbying of thechnology oligarghs and are trying to force ID and age verification on all of us just to visit websites and use our phone. It's crazy how much support these industries are getting from the establishment. Now Google's stock went up more than 40% just since the end of march. The market is pricing in that western governments are willing to sacrifice every slither of privacy of their citizens just to help megacorps enrich themselves at an even faster pace.

[Smartprofit]

The current situation, in my opinion, is very similar to what happened immediately before the Great Depression of the 1930s. 🙋

Then a technological innovation emerged that was no less significant than artificial intelligence. This technological innovation was called "electricity." People simply idolized it. For example, the leader of the Soviet Bolsheviks, Vladimir Ilyich Lenin, coined the slogan: "Communism is the power of the soviets plus the electrification of the entire country!"

The capitalists weren't far behind... Back then, everyone was buying stocks, including the shoeshine boys. Everyone was convinced that by buying stocks, they would quickly get rich. There are objective, formalized metrics for assessing the fair value of shares on the stock market. And, of course, everyone saw that all stocks were incredibly overvalued.

However, this didn't bother anyone. Everyone believed that technological progress had accelerated so much that new products and services would emerge in the near future that would justify high stock prices.  In short, everyone believed in the coming technological singularity... 🙂

It all ended, as we all know, very badly.

It's hard to say what will happen this time... And even harder to say what fate awaits Bitcoin. Frankly, I'm very concerned about Bitcoin's close ties to institutional players. They could very well drag it down with them. 🤷

[mindrust]

Computing powa is the new oil. If are not invested in AI, you are falling behind. Maybe it is already too late to buy nvidia but it is definitely not (yet) too late to invest in local ai hardware.

If people knew what they could do with AI, hardware prices would double, quadruple one or several more times right from here. Considering that, I can say we are still in the early phase of AI.

It is not a bubble. AI is the future.

Do you even LLM bruh

[sergiorus]

Computing powa is the new oil. If are not invested in AI, you are falling behind. Maybe it is already too late to buy nvidia but it is definitely not (yet) too late to invest in local ai hardware.

If people knew what they could do with AI, hardware prices would double, quadruple one or several more times right from here. Considering that, I can say we are still in the early phase of AI.

It is not a bubble. AI is the future.

Do you even LLM bruh

so basically an H100 now is like a Bored Ape NFT in 2021?

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Do you even LLM bruh

I despise the word epic because of its overuse in the past few years, but goddamn that picture is an EPIC piece of art, and you will not find me saying that often about graphics members here post (no offense, OP).

And to the point of the thread:  Damn straight I think stocks related to AI are in, or shortly headed toward, bubble territory.  What scant financial news I read is nearly all AI-related, and it's obvious Wall Street is pouring big money into what they think is going to be the next breakthrough in technology.

But meanwhile back behind my own keyboard, I see only stupid and very unnecessary uses of it and have also seen blatantly incorrect medical information spat out by one of the larger search engine's attempt at answering a question it had obviously never encountered before.  I really hope people don't take such answers as if they came from a medical text or a doctor or even a credible search engine result, else they might be in danger.  I also hold hopes that AI can solve some of the major problems in medicine that have eluded researchers for decades--you know, like cancer, Alzheimer's, etc.  But as for the stock market....just like with the tech boom in the 90s, lots of companies will benefit in the short-term, most will fail, and in the end only a handful will be winners.

[Fortify]

If we look at the end of the chart, I think it clearly indicates FOMO, and as we might expect, it seems that this is at least partly due to AI-related stocks.

Nasdaq: Composite Surges to All-Time High of 26,247 as AI Stocks and Strong Jobs Data Fuel Record Rally

The problem with a chart like this is that you don't know when that near-vertical trend is going to end.

In comparison, if we look at Bitcoin’s price chart over the past few years, it has underperformed slightly, and there’s no sign of FOMO anywhere.

But in any case, it breaks with the past trend in which Bitcoin outperformed the Nasdaq over five-year periods.

What do you think? Could there be a bubble in AI stocks that might burst in the future? If that happened, would it benefit Bitcoin?

Absolutely, but maybe the question isn't "is this a bubble" but "how quick will it burst"? A slow deflation or at least allowing the rest of the market to catch up over many years might not cause any issues. Then again, even short and sharp corrections like we saw at the start of Covid don't actually rock the market that much these days. We are entering an era where timelines can be squeezed and big stories (like a boom or crash) get glossed over because of a US president streaming constant stupidity at us which is hard to process every day. There is likely to reach a point soon, but it may still take a couple years, where the reality of higher profits does not materialize and it all comes crashing back down. AI is unlocking some productivity and gains, but probably nowhere near enough to justify the expenditures. There is also some circular investment going on which is very dangerous, like Nvidia investing in companies that buy huge amounts of their stock.

[el kaka22]

Lol, using AI to create an image that is bashing AI, that is definitely something that is ironic and funny at the same time. Yes AI is getting bigger, and yes it is growing bigger, and yes that is causing a lot of trouble from simple Ram prices being higher and GPU prices skyrocketing and even not being able to just find some, so all of it does end up being something major problems individually, on top of that water being an issue on the long run as well, which is another subject that is global.

But that doesn't mean that we are going to stop, sometimes we make the world a worse place. You think the world and global warming would have happened if industrial revolution did not happen? That was the reason why we got warmer, so money is over everything for the whales.

[7juju]

It could be a bubble or it might not be. AI is gaining more relevance on daily basis, and it will continue to grow. Let’s not forget the early days of bitcoin, when the chart was looking like the first image your shared, many people thought it was fomo, and there could be bubbles in it that was going to burst soon, but it never happened. Before they realized it wasn’t bubbles in it, it was a bit late for them. AI is still in it’s early stages of development, we will see more of it’s stocks growing in the coming years.

[Smartprofit]

Computing powa is the new oil. If are not invested in AI, you are falling behind. Maybe it is already too late to buy nvidia but it is definitely not (yet) too late to invest in local ai hardware.

If people knew what they could do with AI, hardware prices would double, quadruple one or several more times right from here. Considering that, I can say we are still in the early phase of AI.

It is not a bubble. AI is the future.

Do you even LLM bruh

Overall, such a wild rise in AI-related asset values ​​cannot continue indefinitely. This has never happened before in human history, and therefore, it's extremely unlikely to happen now. 🙋

We don't know whether AI will be able to accelerate technological progress enough to create a utopia for everyone on planet Earth. However, we can predict with a high degree of certainty that AI will actively destroy jobs.

Besides social unrest, wars, and revolutions, this will also lead us to a very paradoxical situation. The economy may flourish, tech stocks may skyrocket, but people will be out of work and unable to buy new goods and services. And who will then buy these new goods and services? Humanoid robots? Perhaps they should be granted political rights so they can become full-fledged consumers and voters?💁

[mindrust]

Computing powa is the new oil. If are not invested in AI, you are falling behind. Maybe it is already too late to buy nvidia but it is definitely not (yet) too late to invest in local ai hardware.

If people knew what they could do with AI, hardware prices would double, quadruple one or several more times right from here. Considering that, I can say we are still in the early phase of AI.

It is not a bubble. AI is the future.

Do you even LLM bruh

Overall, such a wild rise in AI-related asset values ​​cannot continue indefinitely. This has never happened before in human history, and therefore, it's extremely unlikely to happen now. 🙋

We don't know whether AI will be able to accelerate technological progress enough to create a utopia for everyone on planet Earth. However, we can predict with a high degree of certainty that AI will actively destroy jobs.

Besides social unrest, wars, and revolutions, this will also lead us to a very paradoxical situation. The economy may flourish, tech stocks may skyrocket, but people will be out of work and unable to buy new goods and services. And who will then buy these new goods and services? Humanoid robots? Perhaps they should be granted political rights so they can become full-fledged consumers and voters?💁

You are absolutely right!

But dunn worry. By 2030, you will own nutthin and be happy.

Universal basic income here we c*m!

Jokes aside, there will always be somebody somewhere own summthing and there will be some people somewhere will be wageslavin. Not much will be changin imo. I dunno. Not sure. Depends. I am by all means no expert on nutthin.

How many tokens per second can you generate locally btw? You gotta start from somewhere!

[sergiorus]

Lol, using AI to create an image that is bashing AI, that is definitely something that is ironic and funny at the same time. Yes AI is getting bigger, and yes it is growing bigger, and yes that is causing a lot of trouble from simple Ram prices being higher and GPU prices skyrocketing and even not being able to just find some, so all of it does end up being something major problems individually, on top of that water being an issue on the long run as well, which is another subject that is global.

But that doesn't mean that we are going to stop, sometimes we make the world a worse place. You think the world and global warming would have happened if industrial revolution did not happen? That was the reason why we got warmer, so money is over everything for the whales.

I think there was a lot of manual work involved in creation of this picture with some help of AI of course.
Still not sure it's hypocritical or even ironic. It's like creating a memecoin on Solana that bashes the Solana chain and the team. A sophisticated sort of protest.
Maybe the picture carries the same message.

[joniboini]

Still not sure it's hypocritical or even ironic. It's like creating a memecoin on Solana that bashes the Solana chain and the team. A sophisticated sort of protest.
Maybe the picture carries the same message.

I definitely feel like it isn't criticizing the poster though. Especially when the word funny is there, not hypocritical.

But anyway, I've been hearing about this AI bubble for months too and I wonder when it will actually explodes. As in, those start-ups who puts AI everywhere on their projects dies and companies no longer gobble up RAM and whatnot. Even if it does happens, whether it will brings electronic prices to previous levels is another question. If that doesn't happen I can only hope my current setup last for another 10 years.

[YellowSwap]

It could happen or not, I don't care, I stay away from AI as far as possible, even if somehow no bubble occured I won't be affected, it's not a must to make money off everything that the world throw to our faces.

Something else will come up few years from now, my advice is to be neutral, don't go too deep into AI investments and don't be completely out either, whatsoever happens later won't greatly affects you.

Come to think of this, aren't some mining companies already going for AI data center? That's a good sign over there, that it's possible for AI to last longer than many expected, I'm just saying.

[Ambatman]

I don't really see that happening anytime soon.
I read somewhere that the efficiency in developing AI improves as time goes on
Not to mention what they cut across is fucking broad
Competition? They their own competition
They barely in their infancy
Some corrections may take place but bubble bursting? Not anytime soon imo.

[BlackHatCoiner]

One a quick glimpse, it does look like a bubble, but on the other hand, the AI experienced a sudden development. I remember when ChatGPT was published, and it reached 1 million users in 5 days. And it's only been 3 years since then, look what we have now with Claude and Image/Video generation. Imagine what there might be in 10 years.

This is a temporary phase when we're still discovering where AI is useful. It cannot last forever, because the revenues from users do not justify the expenses. The positive speculation of those companies, however, can last for a very long time, from investors, bankers and governments who cannot wait to see how this technology will give them the edge.

I would not take the bet that the "AI bubble" of Anthropic, Google and OpenAI will burst as long as there is a money printer!

[avp2306]

One a quick glimpse, it does look like a bubble, but on the other hand, the AI experienced a sudden development. I remember when ChatGPT was published, and it reached 1 million users in 5 days. And it's only been 3 years since then, look what we have now with Claude and Image/Video generation. Imagine what there might be in 10 years.

This is a temporary phase when we're still discovering where AI is useful. It cannot last forever, because the revenues from users do not justify the expenses. The positive speculation of those companies, however, can last for a very long time, from investors, bankers and governments who cannot wait to see how this technology will give them the edge.

I would not take the bet that the "AI bubble" of Anthropic, Google and OpenAI will burst as long as there is a money printer!

Yeah it may looks like a bubble at first glance, but this phase can still be called as accelerated innovation. Just the same as your example on which Chatgpt hit that 1m users per day, this phase that there's real demand for using this technology.

Maybe temporarily revenues did not match and meet their expenses, but as long as the institutions and people see this as useful tool, this can stay for many years. I also think they don't care about getting immediate profits and what they aim is for long term positioning.

[Somegory]

If biggest companies around the world are letting their workers and employees off because they want to replace them with AI, what makes you think that AI bubble is coming? Something this useful won't end this way.

Hate it or love it, AI is now part of this world now and it will be in the future too,  if you are running a company of your own and you are paying your workers and there comes a solution where you can pay people less because something new can replace those workers without paying any money will you ignore? ..

It will be a complete lie if I say that AI existence isn't useful for humanity, it is actually useful and that's why no bubble is going to burst.

[Free Market Capitalist]

This is a temporary phase when we're still discovering where AI is useful. It cannot last forever, because the revenues from users do not justify the expenses. The positive speculation of those companies, however, can last for a very long time, from investors, bankers and governments who cannot wait to see how this technology will give them the edge.

I would not take the bet that the "AI bubble" of Anthropic, Google and OpenAI will burst as long as there is a money printer!

Yeah it may looks like a bubble at first glance, but this phase can still be called as accelerated innovation. Just the same as your example on which Chatgpt hit that 1m users per day, this phase that there's real demand for using this technology.

I think it’s worth remembering that there are two types of what we call a bubble. The first type is a price bubble based on something that doesn’t actually have intrinsic value, like the tulip bubble. The second type of bubble is an overvaluation of assets that do have intrinsic value, but where expectations cause prices to rise too high too quickly. Something like that happened in the dot-com bubble, and something similar could be happening now.

And I think ChatGPT is precisely one of the ones most at risk of bursting. I think it’s much more likely that Gemini, for example, will survive because it’s integrated into the Google ecosystem, rather than ChatGPT.