Doesn't this look like an AI bubble?

[avp2306]

This is a temporary phase when we're still discovering where AI is useful. It cannot last forever, because the revenues from users do not justify the expenses. The positive speculation of those companies, however, can last for a very long time, from investors, bankers and governments who cannot wait to see how this technology will give them the edge.

I would not take the bet that the "AI bubble" of Anthropic, Google and OpenAI will burst as long as there is a money printer!

Yeah it may looks like a bubble at first glance, but this phase can still be called as accelerated innovation. Just the same as your example on which Chatgpt hit that 1m users per day, this phase that there's real demand for using this technology.

I think it’s worth remembering that there are two types of what we call a bubble. The first type is a price bubble based on something that doesn’t actually have intrinsic value, like the tulip bubble. The second type of bubble is an overvaluation of assets that do have intrinsic value, but where expectations cause prices to rise too high too quickly. Something like that happened in the dot-com bubble, and something similar could be happening now.

And I think ChatGPT is precisely one of the ones most at risk of bursting. I think it’s much more likely that Gemini, for example, will survive because it’s integrated into the Google ecosystem, rather than ChatGPT.

Correct, because there's really big difference with something just been hype around and they don't have solid foundation, compare to those somehow genuinely useful but just have been overvalued.

those Ai tools like the example you have said which is Chatgpt is undeniably useful and have utitlity, but the main question is if they will remain sustainable with their current valuations, maybe we will find it out in future if they continue to exist or later on they collapse. There's high chance for Gemini since its been backed up by big platform like google. Also if you open chrome you can see on right side the word '"asked Gemini" and frequently seeing that can make people choose to use Gemini than other Ai tools like Chatgpt.

[sergiorus]

And I think ChatGPT is precisely one of the ones most at risk of bursting. I think it’s much more likely that Gemini, for example, will survive because it’s integrated into the Google ecosystem, rather than ChatGPT.

Nah, ChatGPT is a synonym of AI to normies, they often don't even know there are others. It's the main brand and the face of the industry.

[Findingnemo]

AI still got the room to grow, not sure about their AI based compnaies but the technology itself is still in the infant stage at this point, so people are going to invest their money on AI for sure for a while means the bubble can burst but not immediately in my opinion.

[Free Market Capitalist]

And I think ChatGPT is precisely one of the ones most at risk of bursting. I think it’s much more likely that Gemini, for example, will survive because it’s integrated into the Google ecosystem, rather than ChatGPT.

Nah, ChatGPT is a synonym of AI to normies, they often don't even know there are others. It's the main brand and the face of the industry.

What are you talking about? A normie gets a new android phone and has Gemini installed, to get ChatGPT he needs to download it. He opens his PC with Windows and has Copilot, no ChatGPT either. This is not 2023, most people have tried different AI models.

[justdimin]

And I think ChatGPT is precisely one of the ones most at risk of bursting. I think it’s much more likely that Gemini, for example, will survive because it’s integrated into the Google ecosystem, rather than ChatGPT.

Nah, ChatGPT is a synonym of AI to normies, they often don't even know there are others. It's the main brand and the face of the industry.

I agree, plus in most metrics it's still ahead of others. Yes if you want to "vibe code" you may prefer Claude, but in general as a chatting thing, chatgpt is the best and it is the smartest and generates the best results. There are specialty ones in between like coding for Claude, or images for midjourney etc, but that is just a temporary thing and not something that is super common. It is speculated by many industrial experts that chatgpt will stay for a long time and will be AI of the people for years to decade.

Even though AI industry has been proving its potential, the hype on its growth and expectations are on higher sider that we need to agree which is the simple reason why those AI stocks are skyrocketing. Market is usually discounting the future growth in present itself which will lead to stagnant mode for these stocks when they just meet or miss the expected growth later on.

[sergiorus]

And I think ChatGPT is precisely one of the ones most at risk of bursting. I think it’s much more likely that Gemini, for example, will survive because it’s integrated into the Google ecosystem, rather than ChatGPT.

Nah, ChatGPT is a synonym of AI to normies, they often don't even know there are others. It's the main brand and the face of the industry.

What are you talking about? A normie gets a new android phone and has Gemini installed, to get ChatGPT he needs to download it. He opens his PC with Windows and has Copilot, no ChatGPT either. This is not 2023, most people have tried different AI models.

In the western world (the one that generates revenue for AI companies) normies have iPhones, not Android phones.
I don't know what "Copilot" is and I am a Windows user.  
All I can say is that for normies ChatGPT has become the second name for AI.
Similarly how once 15 years ago Google became the second name for an internet search: "just Google it" - and Google was never the only or even the best search engine.
Now they say "just ask GPT".

[Lucius]

There is no longer any doubt, we can say that AI fever has taken hold and the genie has been let out of the bottle. For those developing AI, nothing matters but profit - and the average Joe thinks his life will be better if he uses AI. My opinion is that the bubble will only burst when something really bad happens, and AI is blamed as the main culprit.

A few days ago, I read the news that an AI megacenter worth EUR 50 billion will be built in my country, and no one sees anything wrong with the fact that it will consume over 20% of the electricity that the country currently uses, and huge amounts of water for cooling. The EU is investing ten times as much in AI technologies, and when they have to explain what exactly they will be used for and who will use them, no one has a concrete answer.

Sometimes it seems to me that everything is being controlled by some super AI and not by people with sane minds.

[Free Market Capitalist]

In the western world (the one that generates revenue for AI companies) normies have iPhones, not Android phones.

In the Western world normies use about 50% Android 50% Iphone. In the Western world you search on google on your Windows and this Gemini AI reply comes out:

In the Western world, the market share between the iPhone (iOS) and Android varies significantly by region, with the iPhone dominating in North America and Android holding the majority in Europe.

United States & Canada: iOS (iPhone) is the dominant operating system, commanding approximately 61% to 63% of the smartphone market, while Android holds around 37% to 39%.

Europe: Android remains the market leader overall, capturing roughly 66% of active mobile devices, compared to Apple's 33%.

United Kingdom: The market is nearly split, with iOS holding a slight majority at 51% versus Android's 48%.

But that's not the point.

The point is that in the Western world there are dummies who think they are smart and don't realize that Iphone doesn't come with ChatGPT installed either.

I don't know what "Copilot" is and I am a Windows user.  

It is pretty clear that is just one of the many things you don't know.

All I can say is that for normies ChatGPT has become the second name for AI.

Yeah, actually that's of the BS you can say.

I'm editing this to say that after writing my reply, I just noticed how poor your ratio of merit to activity is. That explains everything. You're going straight on my ignore list.

[Moreno233]

I don't think it is perfectly right to conclude that the sharp rise in Nasdaq represent FOMO even though such possibilities exist. There were time Bitcoin experienced similar surge so we don't attribute that FOMO always, it is just the market response when there is substantial fundamental to drive such explosive move. AI is definitely part of what is pushing the growth and that is expected to continue because AI is far from being obsolete, it is what we will leave with and represent an integral part of the future.

[sergiorus]

In the western world (the one that generates revenue for AI companies) normies have iPhones, not Android phones.

In the Western world normies use about 50% Android 50% Iphone. In the Western world you search on google on your Windows and this Gemini AI reply comes out:

In the Western world, the market share between the iPhone (iOS) and Android varies significantly by region, with the iPhone dominating in North America and Android holding the majority in Europe.

United States & Canada: iOS (iPhone) is the dominant operating system, commanding approximately 61% to 63% of the smartphone market, while Android holds around 37% to 39%.

Europe: Android remains the market leader overall, capturing roughly 66% of active mobile devices, compared to Apple's 33%.

United Kingdom: The market is nearly split, with iOS holding a slight majority at 51% versus Android's 48%.

But that's not the point.

The point is that in the Western world there are dummies who think they are smart and don't realize that Iphone doesn't come with ChatGPT installed either.

I don't know what "Copilot" is and I am a Windows user.  

It is pretty clear that is just one of the many things you don't know.

All I can say is that for normies ChatGPT has become the second name for AI.

Yeah, actually that's of the BS you can say.

I'm editing this to say that after writing my reply, I just noticed how poor your ratio of merit to activity is. That explains everything. You're going straight on my ignore list.

I won't quote each of your points because it's a bit inconvenient to do so
on phone, I will just address them in numbers:

1. You talked about "normies" and then pulled general statistics that aren't even age-specific, and to relate to "normies", they would have to have way more filters.
And fwiw, the Europe stats are also skewed by poorer eastern and south-eastern european countries. In western and northern europe Apple phones completely dominate the market especially among young people, let alone "normies".

2. There are many things I don't know indeed.

3. There are many things you don't know either. For example, that the vast majority of my actvity happened before the "merit" system was even introduced. A few years before you even registered your account.
So I guess you gotta put me out of your ignore list for now.