An experiment: is BTC halving cycle effect on prices valid in 2026-2027 ?

[JaanusRaim]

As following I make a little experiment about the fifth halving cycle effect on BTC prices.

We know the nine previous time series on halving cycle highs and lows: 26, 2, 1132, 165, 19345, 3233, 67549, 15760, 124749 (USD/BTC). Taking into account the regularities of these past nine data points, the tenth data point (the BTC price lowest level during the fifth halving cycle) will be ca 30000-40000.

I consider the BTC halving cycle effect on prices valid if I am able to remarkably (at least by 20%) increase my initial bet (0.01 BTC). I sold my 0.01 BTC today for 814.40 USD and plan to buy it back near the cycle low.

The experiment begins on May 10, 2026 and will end on December 31, 2027.

[Free Market Capitalist]

We know the nine previous time series on halving cycle highs and lows: 26, 2, 1132, 165, 19345, 3233, 67549, 15760, 124749 (USD/BTC). Taking into account the regularities of these past nine data points, the tenth data point (the BTC price lowest level during the fifth halving cycle) will be ca 30000-40000.

The problem with that line of reasoning is that projecting the future based on supposed patterns from the past works—until it stops working. That’s generally true, but we’ve seen it happen countless times with Bitcoin’s price. The world does not function as a series of mathematical events isolated from it. And even a series of isolated mathematical events can be extended in an infinite number of ways that are consistent with the past.

[Nathrixxx]

You can't predict the exact pattern at which bitcoin is going to take in making all time high when it comes to next season bullrun, just the same way we couldn't predict on the last one as we have it even before the halving event take place, next season could be during or after halving, this is why we have to be in the right position with bitcoin investment and also decided to stay close to making profit irrespective of the pattern it's taking by then.

[LordShanken]

As following I make a little experiment about the fifth halving cycle effect on BTC prices.

We know the nine previous time series on halving cycle highs and lows: 26, 2, 1132, 165, 19345, 3233, 67549, 15760, 124749 (USD/BTC). Taking into account the regularities of these past nine data points, the tenth data point (the BTC price lowest level during the fifth halving cycle) will be ca 30000-40000.

I consider the BTC halving cycle effect on prices valid if I am able to remarkably (at least by 20%) increase my initial bet (0.01 BTC). I sold my 0.01 BTC today for 814.40 USD and plan to buy it back near the cycle low.

The experiment begins on May 10, 2026 and will end on December 31, 2027.

Four-year cycles – the very name – actually come from the four-year halving periods. It's just that no one remembers about it anymore. Now everyone thinks they're some magical four-year trading cycles.

The larger the halving, the more it impacted the price. When the block reward decreased from 50 BTC to 25 BTC, it was a big jump. The same thing happened with the halving from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. With subsequent halvings, the impact on the price was smaller, but then the cryptocurrencies themselves began to become more popular, and hence the bull markets were bigger, but not directly from the four-year halvings themselves.

At this point, the halving has almost no impact on the price, so we can completely forget about four-year cycles.
The cryptocurrency market is becoming increasingly aligned with traditional markets, and this will continue as financial institutions create new instruments based on cryptocurrencies and with further regulations introduced by governments.

I'm sorry, but your experiment won't work. Unless someone tries to force themselves to find similarities.

Anyway, if you want to play along, go ahead - it's your time. 

[adultcrypto]

As much as we would want to deny it, the BTC halving cycle is still a little in play because bitcoin made ATH high in a the next year after halving year just like it did during the 2016 and 2020 halvings.  Secondly, the year following the ATH saw bitcoin enter into major correction and we have also seen same to be the case now, so it will be technically wrong to assume that we have completely shifted frkm the prevalent cycle, although a lot of things changed in the past halving. Notable among them is the fact that price created a new ATH before the halving because of the approval of the ETF. Until something significant change such as price creating a new ATH from now to 2028, I will still maintain that the halving is still a major determinant.

[JaanusRaim]

As following I make a little experiment about the fifth halving cycle effect on BTC prices.

We know the nine previous time series on halving cycle highs and lows: 26, 2, 1132, 165, 19345, 3233, 67549, 15760, 124749 (USD/BTC). Taking into account the regularities of these past nine data points, the tenth data point (the BTC price lowest level during the fifth halving cycle) will be ca 30000-40000.

I consider the BTC halving cycle effect on prices valid if I am able to remarkably (at least by 20%) increase my initial bet (0.01 BTC). I sold my 0.01 BTC today for 814.40 USD and plan to buy it back near the cycle low.

The experiment begins on May 10, 2026 and will end on December 31, 2027.

Four-year cycles – the very name – actually come from the four-year halving periods. It's just that no one remembers about it anymore. Now everyone thinks they're some magical four-year trading cycles.

The larger the halving, the more it impacted the price. When the block reward decreased from 50 BTC to 25 BTC, it was a big jump. The same thing happened with the halving from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. With subsequent halvings, the impact on the price was smaller, but then the cryptocurrencies themselves began to become more popular, and hence the bull markets were bigger, but not directly from the four-year halvings themselves.

At this point, the halving has almost no impact on the price, so we can completely forget about four-year cycles.
The cryptocurrency market is becoming increasingly aligned with traditional markets, and this will continue as financial institutions create new instruments based on cryptocurrencies and with further regulations introduced by governments.

I'm sorry, but your experiment won't work. Unless someone tries to force themselves to find similarities.

Anyway, if you want to play along, go ahead - it's your time. 

I am more than agree with you (or is better to say 135% agree with you).
I have to admit that even after the first halving there were economically no reason for waiting the price increases because the halving is perfectly predictable event and therefore has to be fully taken account before it happens. The halving cycles effect on BTC price is (and has always been) not possible in accordance with economic science.

But I have to admit as well that there is some rhyme in the last nine BTC price highs/lows and that the probability that this rhyme is pure coincidence is small.

Therefore I am curious to test it myself.

[GreatArkansas]

There's another famous platform for this, it's called "Bitcoin Obituaries."
https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/


Right now, it's already "Bitcoin has died 477 times".
The recent was last August 2025.

[JaanusRaim]

There's another famous platform for this, it's called "Bitcoin Obituaries."
https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/


Right now, it's already "Bitcoin has died 477 times".
The recent was last August 2025.

The best of 477 was: https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/wired-tired-expired-for-2012-expired-bitcoin/

What a weird coincidence - BTC never died during the period from November 23, 2011 to December 24, 2012 but six times earlier in 2011

[LordShanken]

~~~

I am more than agree with you (or is better to say 135% agree with you).
I have to admit that even after the first halving there were economically no reason for waiting the price increases because the halving is perfectly predictable event and therefore has to be fully taken account before it happens. The halving cycles effect on BTC price is (and has always been) not possible in accordance with economic science.

But I have to admit as well that there is some rhyme in the last nine BTC price highs/lows and that the probability that this rhyme is pure coincidence is small.

Therefore I am curious to test it myself.

There may be some subtle movements. But they could be a result of what people have become accustomed to, and now they're just consciously trying to catch on. (I'm talking about cycles)
This would explain the validity of technical analysis, i.e., psychological repeatability. (if we can call it like that)
But even if you notice something, I don't think it's worth trading on it.
There are too many things happening right now that will disrupt this rhythm, not to mention Trump's circus tricks.

If you're curious, go ahead. In fact, I'm also curious if you notice anything.