Bull, bear or crab? Where are we? A quick poll

[pawel7777]

Just a quick vibe check to check the community's sentiment, given opinions in different threads vary quite a lot.

Personally, I expected a bear market, which would be in line with the typical 4-year cycle pattern, but maybe we're already in a different paradigm, and old patterns can be put away.
I'll let the poll run for 14 days. Hopefully it will get enough traction to produce a reliable measurement.

Vote changing is allowed.

As always, any comments and opinions are welcome.

[Oshosondy]

All I know is that bitcoin may not fall below $60000, but I still choose the price that I guess which is $59000. The market may change or may not change, but I still think bitcoin can at least go back to $76500 even if it does not fall further.  If bitcoin go back to the price, we can further discuss if it will fall further or not fall further.

[Frankolala]

The market has put a lot of bitcoin speculators into confusion because of the way the market is moving. I believe that we are still in the bear season and a dip might occur soon that will take bitcoin price back to $69k or below. However, I'm still wondering if the government and other big companies bthat have invested heavily on bitcoin is what made the price not to dip as I expected it because the price has being pumping of recent.

[adultcrypto]

On a long term, we are in a bear market because price has broken major market structure to the down side following the drop from the ATH of October last year. Over 50% correction is enough to confirm a charge of character which is what informed my conclusion. However,  on a short term, we are in consolidation because both those who are bullish and those who are bearish have been trapped in the range of $79k to $83k. Until I see a clean breakout from this range, my opinion will not change yet.

[Pandorak]

Personally, i believe we are still in a bear market, even though Bitcoin is currently rallying and showing a slight increase, this doesn’t mean we’ve escaped the bear market. In fact, when viewed on a high time frame, it’s clear that the overall trend is still downward. Bitcoin has fallen to a very low level, around 50% and it’s possible that in the coming month, Bitcoin will reach a price lower than $60k, perhaps down to the key level at $50k. Who knows, everyone is just speculating based on their own analysis, though i hope the decline is over and that prices will continue to rise even higher than the ATH.

[hugeblack]

Currently we are in a bear market. Compared to the $120,000 levels, we have not been able to return to the $96,000 levels, which means it is difficult to see levels above $100,000 anytime soon. Therefore, the possibility of a correction is still present, but it will not be a deep correction.

[DiMarxist]

The truth is the market is undergoing a bear period and is only trying to correct itself and bouncing back on track. This is why the price has not been stable in the past six months. We are still far from the Bull run left for me we should not even be talking about price currently but concentrate more on accumulation, because this is the best time to accumulate as the price of Bitcoin is currently in the favour of the investors because the price comes down and go up on a regular.

[LordShanken]

In early May, there was a chance to start a bull market, but it was only a test. Investors know that summer isn't the time for price increases, so they won't buy now. Summer is usually a period of consolidation, and it's possible that will continue this year.
However, we're still in a bear market, so I'd expect further declines. The level of these declines depends on how the average whales react. If they can't withstand the pressure of further small declines in the coming months until September, they could start selling and further push the price declines.
Big whales for sure will stay calm, but I believe a price below $60,000 is very realistic, and whether we see a price below $50,000 depends on whether the average whales will stay calm during the summer.

[Bushdark]

The market is very confusing now especially seeing the price of Bitcoin at 80k which has been making some people to think whether the bull market has commenced. There is nothing like that and this might look like a bull trap. So many investors and traders may be trapped pressing the buy button with hoping that the price of Bitcoin will continue to go bull which is an opportunity to hold and add more Bitcoin.
I will only believe that we are in the bull market if the price of bitcoin exceed 100k.
What we are seeing now is like a bull trap that will make investors to buy while the price will later fall without any notice.

[philipma1957]

On a long term, we are in a bear market because price has broken major market structure to the down side following the drop from the ATH of October last year. Over 50% correction is enough to confirm a charge of character which is what informed my conclusion. However,  on a short term, we are in consolidation because both those who are bullish and those who are bearish have been trapped in the range of $79k to $83k. Until I see a clean breakout from this range, my opinion will not change yet.

you can say based on oct 2025 high we are still bear 🐻 because you went long.


but i can go longer and say we are bull based on the 2020 low up 20x
or a little less longer based on the 2023 low of 16k we are bull up 5x

or shorter and say we are bull based on the 2026 low of 59/60k up 35%

so i get three bulls to one bear.

[LordShanken]

On a long term, we are in a bear market because price has broken major market structure to the down side following the drop from the ATH of October last year. Over 50% correction is enough to confirm a charge of character which is what informed my conclusion. However,  on a short term, we are in consolidation because both those who are bullish and those who are bearish have been trapped in the range of $79k to $83k. Until I see a clean breakout from this range, my opinion will not change yet.

you can say based on oct 2025 high we are still bear 🐻 because you went long.


but i can go longer and say we are bull based on the 2020 low up 20x
or a little less longer based on the 2023 low of 16k we are bull up 5x

or shorter and say we are bull based on the 2026 low of 59/60k up 35%

so i get three bulls to one bear.

  Good one!

It's true that if we're talking about long-term price predictions - several years - there are very few people on this forum who wouldn't say it's a bull market.
I think @adultcrypto and the OP also have a shorter timeframe in mind - a few months. Then we analyze backwards a shorter period. In this case, it looks more like a continuation of the bear market.
Of course, everyone has their own strategy and can analyze it however they want. That's what speculation is all about.  

[Proty]

  one thing is certain for sure which is nobody can predict the market movement correctly. There are many that expected a bear market that would last for like 4 years or more. However, I think the market is actually heading back to a good position and there is chances of getting to a bull market very soon. Therefore, with the way the market is actually going I will say that we are on a bull run.

[Zaguru12]

  one thing is certain for sure which is nobody can predict the market movement correctly. There are many that expected a bear market that would last for like 4 years or more. However, I think the market is actually heading back to a good position and there is chances of getting to a bull market very soon. Therefore, with the way the market is actually going I will say that we are on a bull run.

Bull run you say, I don’t understand your own meaning of bull run but even of the last three months has actually been green for bitcoin I wouldn’t call this a bull run it’s ok to refer to it as recovery because bull run is a prolonged period of the market pumping that’s is not what we are having at the moment now. The bearish sentiment yes cannot last for four years but it’s usually takes up almost the year it falls in. Right now this year historically is supposed to be the bearish year and for me it still has some bearish moments left before the end of the year

[JoyMarsha]

Everyone to their own prediction about the market, to be bullish or bearish. One thing that is certain to this, it's either Bitcoin becomes a bull run or a bearish market within a short time, and we will love its development to that, because they both work in our favor to buy and sell at a good price with bright face doing that

[philipma1957]

On a long term, we are in a bear market because price has broken major market structure to the down side following the drop from the ATH of October last year. Over 50% correction is enough to confirm a charge of character which is what informed my conclusion. However,  on a short term, we are in consolidation because both those who are bullish and those who are bearish have been trapped in the range of $79k to $83k. Until I see a clean breakout from this range, my opinion will not change yet.

you can say based on oct 2025 high we are still bear 🐻 because you went long.


but i can go longer and say we are bull based on the 2020 low up 20x
or a little less longer based on the 2023 low of 16k we are bull up 5x

or shorter and say we are bull based on the 2026 low of 59/60k up 35%

so i get three bulls to one bear.

  Good one!

It's true that if we're talking about long-term price predictions - several years - there are very few people on this forum who wouldn't say it's a bull market.
I think @adultcrypto and the OP also have a shorter timeframe in mind - a few months. Then we analyze backwards a shorter period. In this case, it looks more like a continuation of the bear market.
Of course, everyone has their own strategy and can analyze it however they want. That's what speculation is all about.  

And like I said i go shorter feb 2026 59k/60k to today 81k up 30 to 35% =bull.


In fact for the last 17 years today's price is up in 16.5 years of all the years.


BTW by definition we peaked in oct 2026 we were down by 25% or more from nov to Feb

Then went up 20 % or more in April 2026

So bull ended nov 2025 bottom hit feb 2026 new bull   started April 2026.

Now a month later may 2026 it is early mild bull or baby bull.

So I  can't answer the poll since he did not allow for baby bull .

To disagree is simply disagreeing

1+1=2 that's by definition.

Right now is baby bull which could go  backwards

[STT]

You have to back the trend, its bullish.  The regular process now is up, resistance may delay or even reset us some but the overall tide change is positive advancement upwards and that has to be fully accounted for as the majority of effect in force currently.
  We are wavering on the weekly average but even if we failed and saw lower prices as far as 75k I would still opt for the bullish choice to describe BTC in total.   The highs recently have been just below the 200 day moving average, not a bad thing and price will always revisit this measure during a year you can bet on it.
   The negative descent of 200 DMA is worthy of adding to your judgement and we will falter some till that is corrected and 200 DMA is positively gaining also.  That process is the main point of caution that remains right now.

[fullfitlarry]

As the OP said, we should be in the bear market, so I voted on that one. It's that there are so many happenings in the crypto market that we might be seeing good movements. But the question remains if this sort of bullish sentiments can be sustainable for this year?

Right now I say I doubt that we can go this in a bear market. At some point, we will have to see the lowest low. I don't think that $60k'ish is the lowest, we could still see a massive downturn in the next coming months.

[Charcol]

In my opinion, it is quite difficult to call the market bull or bear at the present time. However, I can call this time a sideways market, where there is a long-term positive potential. I was reading a news where some traders think that the price of Bitcoin could reach $85k in a few days. The reason is that the funding rate in the Bitcoin futures market has become positive again. However, it is also said that the US-Iran tensions, high oil prices and overall economic uncertainty may hinder the price of Bitcoin from increasing.

[Dave1]

In my opinion, it is quite difficult to call the market bull or bear at the present time. However, I can call this time a sideways market, where there is a long-term positive potential. I was reading a news where some traders think that the price of Bitcoin could reach $85k in a few days. The reason is that the funding rate in the Bitcoin futures market has become positive again. However, it is also said that the US-Iran tensions, high oil prices and overall economic uncertainty may hinder the price of Bitcoin from increasing.

>> Short term = Bullish
>> Long term = Bearish

So that's how I see it, right now it seems that we are bullish but still, our last all time high is $126k, so still a far cry from it. I'm no technical analysis guy, I just call how I see what the market is. And as what others who has been in the market for so long, we should be in the bear market right now.

Maybe the ETF and th CLARITY act could be the catalyst to see the price above $80k. But if the CLARITY will not be approved this month, there is a possibility that the price could trigger and start a spike going down.

[Samlucky O]

of course we are in bear season or the market is bearish compared to the previous bitcoin ATH of $126k, and the four years circle has not changed by the way, its just the way the market behave last year and this year that makes it look like the circle have shifted. but trust me nothing has changed, bitcoin will be bullish when the time is right, but as for now we are currently in bear season. although to some may be confusing the constant growth of bitcoin to be bull, but we all know the pattern, it is too early to call it bull, we are definitely in bear season.