In a bearish cycle DCA will become useless

[Yamane_Keto]

Looking at historical data over a medium-term period, the DCA strategy often yields weak results. The main problem lies in the difficulty of predicting price direction and whether it will rise or fall. This is where DCA comes in, as it's a simple strategy that delivers effective results without any prior knowledge.

[Awaklara]

Of course, traders are still at a loss in the short term. Most people use DCA for long-term accumulation. Its application for short-term holding is, of course, risky. But with DCA, you might see a reduction in the risk of losses that occur, compared to having to use the same amount of money to enter at the start. Even if in the end you have to change the plan from short-term holding to long-term.

[henmark]

DCA is for the retailers and only effective in the long term, should be at least a complete cycle or more to get effective results.

It must be those big guys are the ones who are mainly investing for the long-term, and the small one or the retailers are usually lacking in patience, so they can also sell early. In fact, a lot of big guys are already doing a DCA. Have you heard about Michael Saylor or his company Micro Strategy that keeps on accumulating BTC, even if the value of it is still okay or not really dipped?

I am not fan of DCAing either, on some days, you will feel great but on some days it feels like you are wasting the potential capital by just letting it idle and even continue doing it, knowing the bearish season is here to stay.

This is what I am talking about earlier, about patience. But this is also because we are too small to not have enough money, to not think about our investment for a while. But if you think it is a waste idling it in BTC, then what do you think is much better to do instead? To just idle the money as is, in a fiat form? We don't know that it had a draw back too. The value of it can decay though overtime. So we didn't really save a lot the moment we now use them for buying, when the dip finally arrived.

But one who got no knowledge or any trading skills and has the dream of accumulating a decent amount of bitcoin after 5 years of investment then this is one of the best methods.

Identifying a dip is even simple. But if we set a time frame, then we usually do our best too to maximize the results. Though no doubt, 5 years was still a long time. So if we also don't expect too much, and then as long as we are DCA'ing on the recommended level per month, then we still can accumulate a nice amount of BTC.

[Powerjumboo]

I will try to practice here regarding DCA which is talked about a lot by people, because to be honest I myself am not interested in doing DCA regularly. Here's the picture: If for example, someone buys regularly every month for DCA purposes, I take the price rate below randomly per month:

• $125,000 October - Buy $1000
• $98,800 November - DCA $1000
• $84,000 December - DCA $1000
• $88,500 January - DCA $1000
• $60,000 February - DCA $1000
• $65,000 March - DCA $1000
• $67,600 April - DCA $1000
• $82,500 May - DCA $1000

I have calculated that the average price you will get is $83,800, with a total capital of $8000 and for 8 months.

Even until now the price has not reached the average price of $83,800, instead it tends to fall at the current $78,245. That means this person is still in a floating minus position for 8 months.

However, with the same capital and the same time, if you have good trading knowledge, the capital should be able to double. Unless you really can't trade, that's how it happens.

To be successful in investing, you definitely need time, you cannot be successful in this short time. DCA method is not a bad method for investment. DCA method is a good method for investment. For those who cannot afford to invest at once, the DCA method is very effective for those who invest regularly with weekly or monthly money, but it definitely requires a long time. I would say that instead of 8 months, it should be 8 years if necessary. Moreover, trading is not for everyone. It is very difficult to earn money from trading. Especially for beginners, trading is very risky because trading without experience can lead to losses at any time.

[goldkingcoiner]

I will try to practice here regarding DCA which is talked about a lot by people, because to be honest I myself am not interested in doing DCA regularly. Here's the picture: If for example, someone buys regularly every month for DCA purposes, I take the price rate below randomly per month:

• $125,000 October - Buy $1000
• $98,800 November - DCA $1000
• $84,000 December - DCA $1000
• $88,500 January - DCA $1000
• $60,000 February - DCA $1000
• $65,000 March - DCA $1000
• $67,600 April - DCA $1000
• $82,500 May - DCA $1000

I have calculated that the average price you will get is $83,800, with a total capital of $8000 and for 8 months.

Even until now the price has not reached the average price of $83,800, instead it tends to fall at the current $78,245. That means this person is still in a floating minus position for 8 months.

However, with the same capital and the same time, if you have good trading knowledge, the capital should be able to double. Unless you really can't trade, that's how it happens.

You are equating apples with oranges, it would seem.

Either you DCA or you trade. Comparing both makes no sense. One is a division of risk the other is, depending on the trading skills of the person, either pure gambling or a steady time intensive side job which may or may not pan out to a loss, a zero sum waste of time or a slight profit which would still be under the DCA profit, at the moment the price goes above the 83k you mentioned.

So the question is are you a good enough trader to make a higher profit than waiting for the floating position to get into the green again? For 99% of people, the answer is obvious. DCA is better.

Personally, I think I could make a profit higher than DCA but not high enough to justify the amount of time I would have to put into TA/FA. I could use that time to earn money in a different way.

[Luke3bird]

You are equating apples with oranges, it would seem.

Either you DCA or you trade. Comparing both makes no sense. One is a division of risk the other is, depending on the trading skills of the person, either pure gambling or a steady time intensive side job which may or may not pan out to a loss, a zero sum waste of time or a slight profit which would still be under the DCA profit, at the moment the price goes above the 83k you mentioned.

So the question is are you a good enough trader to make a higher profit than waiting for the floating position to get into the green again? For 99% of people, the answer is obvious. DCA is better.

Personally, I think I could make a profit higher than DCA but not high enough to justify the amount of time I would have to put into TA/FA. I could use that time to earn money in a different way.

Most traders don't prepare their finance well so they borrow money for trading, or they have own money for trading but later using leverages for their trading positions. This way of trading with leverages makes their trading more risky, and harder to control their emotion, psychology, decisions, and actions.

There are traders who use DCA strategy too but it's only usable if traders only trade with Spot. If they use leverages, trade with either margin or futures, doing DCA will make their trading positions likely not better but actually worse, with increasing risk after each DCA.

With investors, surely DCA is a very good tool and by investing with own money, they even can hold their portfolios without further DCA while of course it's helpful for their Bitcoin portfolio building if they can maintain DCA with time.

[yhiaali3]

Theoretically you are right, at the current price the person who followed DCA over eight months in your example would come out a loser at the current price of $78,245 for Bitcoin, but in reality you do not have to sell now, you can simply wait until the price of Bitcoin reaches $120k or more and you will come out with a large profit.

DCA strategy does not force you to sell at a specific time or price. It is based on accumulation and on the price rising in the long term. There is no specific time or price. The important thing is to be patient, even if it takes years, and you will come out a winner.

[Wind_FURY]

After reading some of the posts in the topic, let's ask OP,

- Did you actually use the DCA accumulation method and thought that your Bitcoin portfolio will be in profit in a short amount of time?

 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You probably need to have some friction between you and your Bitcoin now because you might be tempted to sell under your average entry price if another crash happens soon.