In a bearish cycle DCA will become useless

[AakZaki]

I will try to practice here regarding DCA which is talked about a lot by people, because to be honest I myself am not interested in doing DCA regularly. Here's the picture: If for example, someone buys regularly every month for DCA purposes, I take the price rate below randomly per month:

• $125,000 October - Buy $1000
• $98,800 November - DCA $1000
• $84,000 December - DCA $1000
• $88,500 January - DCA $1000
• $60,000 February - DCA $1000
• $65,000 March - DCA $1000
• $67,600 April - DCA $1000
• $82,500 May - DCA $1000

I have calculated that the average price you will get is $83,800, with a total capital of $8000 and for 8 months.

Even until now the price has not reached the average price of $83,800, instead it tends to fall at the current $78,245. That means this person is still in a floating minus position for 8 months.

However, with the same capital and the same time, if you have good trading knowledge, the capital should be able to double. Unless you really can't trade, that's how it happens.

[Oshosondy]

All that is need in holding bitcoin is time. It needs years and not just some months. Bitcoin will get to all time high and the person will finally make money.

However, with the same capital and the same time, if you have good trading knowledge, the capital should be able to double. Unless you really can't trade, that's how it happens.

This is what some traders will think, to double the money, but at the end, they will see themselves having $0 left as all the money has been lost to trading.

The reality is that 85% of traders or more are losing, but they will also think like this until they see themselves losing the bull run again because of trading.

I am a trader, I do not support trading idea on this topic. Trade with the amount of money that you can afford to lose.

[Findingnemo]

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However, with the same capital and the same time, if you have good trading knowledge, the capital should be able to double. Unless you really can't trade, that's how it happens.

DCA is for the retailers and only effective in the long term, should be at least a complete cycle or more to get effective results.

I am not fan of DCAing either, on some days, you will feel great but on some days it feels like you are wasting the potential capital by just letting it idle and even continue doing it, knowing the bearish season is here to stay. But one who got no knowledge or any trading skills and has the dream of accumulating a decent amount of bitcoin after 5 years of investment then this is one of the best methods.

[Stalker22]

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However, with the same capital and the same time, if you have good trading knowledge, the capital should be able to double. Unless you really can't trade, that's how it happens.

I really have to disagree with your point here.  You are comparing a really bad DCA situation to an ideal trading dream, and thats just not how things work out in reality.

Think about the numbers you used yourself.  By buying a bit each month, this person brought their average buying price way down, from $125k to $83,800. That would be a lot better than if they had put all their money in at once, for example, at $100k?  Sure, at $78k, they are down around 6.5%, but they are in a much stronger position compared to if they had just jumped in with all $8,000 right at the beginning. DCA did exactly what it was meant to do: it mitigated the risk.

There is no "trading knowledge" that will magically guarantee a 100% win rate.  DCA is a calculated strategy to survive the exact scenario you just described

[coinlary]

The list is how DCA works. The other part, timing and buying at a particular spot (with trading knowledge), is buying the dips. I can DCA and still buy dips, that is, use my trading knowledge to identify good entries. Both can co exist with proper planning of my capital.

IMO, what DCA eliminates is the risk of missing out. Bitcoin doesn't care about our analysis, and it doesn’t care how good you are, unless you just want to play the “buying the dip” game just like  DCA.

[AakZaki]

This is what some traders will think, to double the money, but at the end, they will see themselves having $0 left as all the money has been lost to trading.

This is just an unfounded assumption right? Have you seen that recently there is a trading competition here, people in it still have a lot of money to trade. In fact, they get big prizes for the trading competition.

The reality is that 85% of traders or more are losing, but they will also think like this until they see themselves losing the bull run again because of trading.

If you are a trader, why don't you follow it when there is a trading competition? Shouldn't it be able to test your mentality and knowledge in trading? There are even big prizes, or are you one of the 85% of traders who have lost money to the point of no money?

some days it feels like you are wasting the potential capital by just letting it idle.

I never felt great.

But in this part you're right, sometimes I just let my USD capital sit idle without any trades, but it's part of the strategy to not buy in a hurry when there is a price correction.

[Oshosondy]

This is just an unfounded assumption right?

You can research about it yourself. Use search engine or AI.

Have you seen that recently there is a trading competition here, people in it still have a lot of money to trade. In fact, they get big prizes for the trading competition.

I do not see that as the real trading. I consider that as swapping. Traders trade on Hyperliquid, Asterdex, or connecting wallet to pancakeswap for derivative or the use of exchanges like Binance, MEXC, Bybit for the trading.

You posted double the money which clearly indicates derivatives or margin.

However, with the same capital and the same time, if you have good trading knowledge, the capital should be able to double. Unless you really can't trade, that's how it happens.

I like you is the reason I posted this, you do not need ask me question about making profit or losing in trading, my post is about traders generally. I have enough knowledge in trading than you think, it is not what I can just advise anyone to jump into. Trading will be the reason many people will not hold for the next bull run.

Do you even know who James Wynn is? We talked about him on this board a lot of times in 2025.

[AakZaki]

You can research about it yourself. Use search engine or AI.

Unfortunately I never researched about it, due to the fact that people still trade with large volumes, as I mentioned in the previous post.

I do not see that as the real trading. I consider that as swapping. Traders trade on Hyperliquid, Asterdex, or connecting wallet to pancakeswap for derivative or the use of exchanges like Binance, MEXC, Bybit for the trading.

You posted double the money which clearly indicates derivatives or margin.

Not real trading, are you sure? Isn't the purpose of trading profit, so wherever the trading activity is carried out, it should still be called trading.

I never trade derivatives or margin, I only trade Spot. I will show you the screenshot below, which I show is not the selection of the coin but the entry to buy and sell it. regarding the volume I did you can calculate it yourself, then When it runs for 8 months. Isn't that possible to be 2x over. Remember 8 months, not overnight.

it is not what I can just advise anyone to jump into.

Never advise others to trade, but advise them to learn the science of trading. Gradually they will be able to do it right.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

Being someone who have actually used dca alot and still uses it when accumulating some coins or crypto asset for and as long term investment, I can tell you categorically clear that DCA is absolutely useful in all season, but I definitely understand and won't argue much with you if you since I believe that life is full of choices, and what a person chooses is what determine his or are actions or in-actions.

Someone like myself based on my choices can be using DCA and completely love it while some other person won't react same way because based on their one choices, DCA is absolutely not necessary or needed at all, the truth of the matter now being that a man's food could be another man's poison, you don't use or like f
DCA during bear season doesn't make it useless generally, it's only useless for you.

[Asiska02]

Everything here is looking great and perfect and there is no cause for alarm is one decides to go for this method of accumulation of bitcoin. This person may still be in loss due to the approach he has taken to do DCA in the financial market. This is not a loss as long as the market is still ranging within the average entry price of all your buys, you still stand a very good chance here.

By the moment the bullish state of the market arrives, you’ll wail in joy and laughter for sticking to this method for a long term and never gave up. The goal is for the long term results and it for short term gains. Going to still trade during that period is only advisable if you’re a trader and has a good management skills, if not it is better to also stay away from it from onset.

[AakZaki]

DCA during bear season doesn't make it useless generally, it's only useless for you.

It is indeed difficult to explain to someone who cannot do it, even though I have explained the point in the OP. Will you continue in expectation under the pretext of DCA? Even though what is experienced is a prolonged loss.

You don't need to follow the way I trade or anything, just learn how to analyze, at least technically. So it is not just about doing DCA, DCA without analysis is just an expectation. Because basically the trend is your friend.

Analogy: When you follow your friend into the abyss you will both die, and vice versa. When you get on a plane with your friend, you will both fly.
The bottom line is: When you learn the right way to trade you won't go against a bearish trend, you wait until the reversal point appears.

[EL MOHA]

You don't need to follow the way I trade or anything, just learn how to analyze, at least technically. So it is not just about doing DCA, DCA without analysis is just an expectation. Because basically the trend is your friend.

I think this has long been discussed here that DCA is not actually just something that gives you the best of all profit but certainly that which protects your investment from unnecessary risk. Yes you maybe right that having good analysis of the market actually get you to buy at very good position but let’s be realistic no matter how good you’re in analyzing you’re simply just speculating the market and that has its risk which is you can perfectly get to time the market while in some cases you cannot.

But here is the fight for DCA which if you look at the forum is mostly for total newbies. With DCA you can predominantly get better average at buying in different interval than going in all at once. Anyone that has advice DCA will always emphasize on the need for long term hold with minimum time been four years ( a cycle) and most importantly for a coin which has a greater chance of creating a new ATH in this period. Over a short period of time DCA wouldn’t seem to something that will work out,

Looking at your analysis imagine someone actually getting that $83,000 average at the current ATH he is definitely in profit. But with straight up analysis he might either get the $98,000 or even the $60,000 but none is certain, and this uncertainty is what DCA is meant to address, to try and minimize the risk of loss and possibly maximize the profit