Russia has already lost the war in Ukraine economically, military defeat is next

[Argoo]

Wars are usually fought for money: new markets, sources of material resources, and the property of defeated countries. Russia, above all, has lost the enormous European market that fed it for decades, and this market is lost to it, if not forever, then for a very long time.

Since Russian troops encountered fierce resistance in Ukraine, the Kremlin employed its usual scorched-earth tactics, resulting in piles of ruins instead of cities, which now require spending money rather than generating revenue. Even the captured Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea ultimately proved to be a loss-making project: the costs of its maintenance far outweighed the benefits of its ownership.

Russia is currently spending over 40 percent of its total revenue on the war in Ukraine, and as the full-scale war enters its fifth year, its economy is steadily deteriorating, inflation is rising, and discontent with Putin and the senseless carnage he has unleashed is growing.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's technical and technological capabilities for waging war are only growing. Things have reached the point that, on the eve of the annual pompous celebration of Victory Day over Fascism, Putin appealed to Trump to influence Ukraine and prevent it from attacking Moscow with drones and missiles on that day. Consequently, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, through his official decree No. 374/2026 "On holding a parade in Moscow," authorized the parade, specifying four coordinates of Red Square where Ukrainian weapons would not be used on May 9.

Russians became especially dissatisfied with the war when, on May 17, hundreds of Ukrainian drones penetrated the deeply layered air defenses of Moscow and the surrounding region, protected by over 300 of the latest Russian air defense systems, and destroyed the Elma research and production complex, where Russians manufacture microelectronics; the Angstrem plant, which supplies semiconductors to Russia's military-industrial complex; the Moscow Oil Refinery; the Sonechnogorskaya oil pumping station; and the Volodarskoye oil pumping station. Following this, open calls began in Russia for Putin's overthrow and a search for a way out of the protracted war.

The situation in Russia's war against Ukraine began to noticeably and significantly shift in favor of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front. Ukrainian forces effectively stopped and paralyzed the numerically superior Russian army, gaining a tactical and technological advantage. While Russia previously attempted to maintain the initiative through constant assaults and numerical pressure, Ukrainian forces are now more active. Ukraine continues to operate not simply on the defensive, but actively, launching counterattacks when the situation allows and recapturing previously lost settlements.
The Russian spring-summer offensive has effectively stalled. By April, the Russians had already lost more territory than they had captured. At the same time, Russia has recorded a decline in the influx of new contract soldiers of approximately 30%. The Russian Ministry of Defense failed to meet its recruitment plan for the first quarter of 2026: instead of the planned 33,000-35,000 monthly, it recruited only 70,500 over the entire three months. Moreover, for several months now, losses in killed and wounded have exceeded the number of new recruits to the Russian army. This is understandable: no one wants to be fodder for Ukrainian drones. However, according to statistics, 70 to 90 percent of attacking Russians don't even reach the Ukrainian front lines, as they have to cross so-called "death zones" dozens of kilometers deep, where swarms of drones instantly attack anything that moves.

For Putin, continuing the war or ending it with the current outcome are equally disadvantageous and threaten him with not only political but also physical elimination. He doesn't know what to do. After all, the people will then ask why more than a million Russians were lost in it.

[Fortify]

Be careful with the wishful thinking, because Putin is willing to put his people through a lot more pain and Ukraine will suffer more because of that. It appears the current strategy for these decrepit old men to hang on to power is to create "forever wars" where they convert their country into a constant wartime mentality. It allows things like further erosion of freedoms, making people disappear (even easier), extra political repression and removing generations of young men who might rise up against internal political power. It's a similar thing to what we see in Israel. Putin was definitely scared to imagine an end like Saddam Hussein or Colonel Gadaffi in Libya, who saw "their" empire crumble in relatively short time scales. It's something that Trump is trying to create for America right now, with it's war without an end goal against Iran. I really wish to see Ukraine defeat Russia and they have done an amazing job against higher numbers, but this is a war is going to be a huge grind for both sides while Putin continues his petty crusade. It's only going to stop when he is removed from power, maybe that will happen before he dies of old age.

[slapper]

Has Russia "lost" economically or militarily? This war never made economic sense to begin with. Crimea was already a net financial loss. The Russian market that had been feeding the Europe's energy market has vanished. Not likely to return in a significant way for the next generation. So what was the ROI supposed to be here? And the economics were always going to be a casualty not a consideration.

The central bank's rate at 14.5% remains high and the inflation rate is still not brought under control. You cannot simultaneously take hundreds of thousands of working-age people off the civilian economy and have it continue to operate as usual. In some areas, universities are literally being forced to ensure a certain quota of male students enter military service.

Will this result in the downfall of Putin? The elite is too scared, too compromised, too entangled in the system to move against him even when they can see the wall approaching. Well, that's how things are done. Everyone knows its failing. No one wants to say it aloud first for fear of the personal risk is tremendous. The system keeps going not because anyone believes in it but because everyone is afraid to be the one who breaks it.

[abhiseshakana]

Back in 2022, many people in my country didn't condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and even supported it, because Putin was considered a firm and anti-American leader. Public sympathy, in fact, favored Russia as a manifestation of anti-American and NATO sentiment.

Even though Russia lost the energy market in Western Europe, the economic collapse predicted by the west did not occur. In fact,pararely Russia accelerated its economic connectivity with Asia through many adjustments such as non dollar settlements and energy rerouting.

From an economic perspective, Crimea may be a loss making project, but from a military and geostrategic perspective, some of the territories occupied by Russia considered as buffer zones and vital strategic assets. According to the Russian defense doctrine, military value and maritime access often far outweigh short term financial gains. Often in wartime situations and as a country with significant military and nuclear power, I think the survival of the state doctrine has become ingrained and a habit of living under pressure and sacrificing domestic interests. Repetition is the mother of skill.

[Adiljutt156]

Russian economy is struggling from sometime because of the high war cost they are facing Russia Ukraine conflict is going on from last certain years because of that there is an increasing inflation in Russia but on the other side Ukraine has gained technological advantage. Ukraine has long range drones that has attacked and damaged the critical infrastructure including the oil refineries of Russia. Russia is facing deep economic instability heavy personal losses. Putin is facing a critical pressure and continue this war is becoming very costly and unpopular for his personal leadership to survive in this condition.

[logfiles]

In a large scale war, there is no winner. This is general knowledge from the World wars we had in the past. Innocent people lose lives while some get displaced, there is always a lot of damage to infrastructure and economic activities, we have the governments trying to spend a lot in arms while the citizens suffer with the crumbling economy which can take years to rebuild
How I wish the world always opted for diplomatic ways of resolving issues instead of showing off with arms and weapons.

[Jaweria parveen]

In a large scale war, there is no winner. This is general knowledge from the World wars we had in the past. Innocent people lose lives while some get displaced, there is always a lot of damage to infrastructure and economic activities, we have the governments trying to spend a lot in arms while the citizens suffer with the crumbling economy which can take years to rebuild
How I wish the world always opted for diplomatic ways of resolving issues instead of showing off with arms and weapons.

That is why in every war, the people die and the government acts according to its decisions. The rulers we have seen dying in the past and now always spoke the truth and right, that is why they died like this. Otherwise, why don't the current situation and those who keep themselves in power die? It is only difficult for the people and there are very few countries that do something for their people who suffer after such an accident because the people are not at fault. Despite this, there is no bravery in their war and they do not use such weapons that make it difficult for the next country to attack again. Such talks take place, but when one country accepts the deal and the next does not, then weapons are taken up.

[Argoo]

From an economic perspective, Crimea may be a loss making project, but from a military and geostrategic perspective, some of the territories occupied by Russia considered as buffer zones and vital strategic assets. According to the Russian defense doctrine, military value and maritime access often far outweigh short term financial gains. Often in wartime situations and as a country with significant military and nuclear power, I think the survival of the state doctrine has become ingrained and a habit of living under pressure and sacrificing domestic interests. Repetition is the mother of skill.

To discuss the Crimean Peninsula, it's necessary to delve at least a little into its history. During the Soviet era, Crimea was incorporated into Ukraine in 1954, and this was no accident. Geographically, Crimea is connected by land only to Ukraine, and the peninsula suffered, first and foremost, from a catastrophic water shortage. Even during its occupation after 2014, Russia built the Kerch Bridge, connecting it to the Russian Federation.

Historians and economists estimate Ukraine's total investment in the development and restoration of Crimea's infrastructure from 1954 to 2013 at over $100 billion. These resources were primarily directed toward rescuing agriculture and constructing the North Crimean Water Canal due to the arid climate. Without artificial irrigation, the central part of Crimea was unsuitable for agriculture. Therefore, between 1961 and 1971, Ukraine built and commissioned the North Crimean Canal to supply Crimea with water. However, the construction and expansion of irrigation systems continued until 1997. Water from the Kakhovka Reservoir first reached Crimea in 1963. By 2014, approximately 85% of Crimea's freshwater needs were met by the North Crimean Canal. Crimea was subsidized by Ukraine until its seizure by Russia in 2014.

Following the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, following military action, and especially after Russian troops blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station dam and destroyed the Kakhovka Reservoir on June 6, 2023, to thwart a Ukrainian counteroffensive, water supplies to Crimea ceased. Since then, it has been practically an ecological disaster area.

Now, from the perspective of Crimea's military expediency, Russia initially organized supplies to Crimea, including fuel and military equipment, via the Kerch Strait Bridge. However, after the first successful attack on it on October 8, 2022, when a train carrying fuel caught fire after an explosion, cargo transportation along it was severely restricted. Therefore, Russia began building a highway from Rostov, Russia, along the coast of the Sea of Azov through the occupied cities of Mariupol, Berdyansk, Melitopol, and Genichesk to annexed Crimea.

This highway is located only approximately 100-160 km from the front line. Russian occupiers attempted to transport reserves, military equipment, ammunition, fuel, and lubricants to the front along it, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces thwarted their plans.
Until recently, this highway was inaccessible to Ukraine. But with the increasing number and range of Ukrainian drones, it is now completely under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and Russian military equipment and fuel tanks have begun to burn actively there.

The situation is so serious that the occupiers have banned truck traffic through the Dzhankoy checkpoint at the entrance to Crimea. The results were immediate: a fuel shortage has begun on the peninsula. Restrictions on sales have been imposed.

The Kerch Bridge, although in disrepair after three successful attacks, remains standing and is used primarily for light vehicles. It currently serves as a decoy for the numerous air defense systems that Russia is forced to maintain to protect it.

The entire Crimean Peninsula has long been under constant fire control by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, especially its airfields, air defense systems, and ammunition depots. Because of this, the Russian Black Sea Fleet has long since fled Crimea for the port of Novorossiysk, but even there, its remnants are periodically attacked. The Crimean Peninsula is now like a suitcase without a handle for Russia: a shame to throw it away, but heavy to carry.

[programmer3666]

Honestly, in tis modern wars being wage here and there by some misguided leaders, there are never real winners or losers because innocent people on both sides usually suffer the most. Like people just sit down in many cases to analyze wars based on emotional attachment, political support or religious connection to one side and forget that ordinary human beings are the ones dying, losing homes and struggling every day because of the conflict. By that same standard, many people would also say the U.S lost heavily in places like Iran, Iraq or Afghanistan because wars usually create long term economic problems, destruction and suffering for everyone involved. One clear fact is that wars only benefit politicians or powerful organizations, but normal citizens are usually the ones who pay the biggest price.

[DrBeer]

...
Back in 2022, many people in my country didn't condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and even supported it, because Putin was considered a firm and anti-American leader.
...

I don’t want to offend anyone; I just want to understand. Am I correct in understanding that you would forgive any crime committed by any "anti-American" person against any person or country? Including, for example, if it’s a sadistic maniac, an anti-American who, say,  slaughters the family of someone who supports anti-American views? Is that correct, or is it something else ?
 

[Iranus]

How I wish the world always opted for diplomatic ways of resolving issues instead of showing off with arms and weapons.

In fact, the world has never lacked solutions to end political disagreements, conflicts of personal, national, or religious interests. But the problem is that politicians do not like peace, they do not like diplomacy. Because it does not give them absolute power or the enormous benefit that war or geopolitical tension can bring.

War has caused and continues to cause the deaths of innocent people. But this is generating huge profits for organizations and consolidating absolute power for politician. Therefore, they will never let war disappear completely.

Human nature is inherently greedy, selfish, and envious, and wherever there are people, there will be competition and death.

[YOSHIE]

Russia has already lost the war in Ukraine economically, military defeat is next

Russia is not like you imagine, even though the media talks a lot about it and you also say that Russia is currently being hit by an economic crisis, of course many people make the connection between Russia vs. Russia. Ukraine.

You need to understand, Russia is a genius, they have never lost a war or lost economically, Russia can still overcome all that by making oil prices expensive, Russia is the creator of weapons that are used by many countries, from other countries, it is clear here from their partner countries that Russia canhas an advantage.

In short, if I understand the Russian economy is actually not completely collapsed and defeated, but they are currently trapped in the Ukraine war, but it can be recovered without long-term impact.

[Argoo]

Russia has already lost the war in Ukraine economically, military defeat is next

Russia is not like you imagine, even though the media talks a lot about it and you also say that Russia is currently being hit by an economic crisis, of course many people make the connection between Russia vs. Russia. Ukraine.

You need to understand, Russia is a genius, they have never lost a war or lost economically, Russia can still overcome all that by making oil prices expensive, Russia is the creator of weapons that are used by many countries, from other countries, it is clear here from their partner countries that Russia canhas an advantage.

In short, if I understand the Russian economy is actually not completely collapsed and defeated, but they are currently trapped in the Ukraine war, but it can be recovered without long-term impact.

It's important to remember that Russia won all its great victorious wars, including the war against Napoleon in 1812 and the war against fascism in 1941-1945, when Ukraine fought on its side. The USSR's power also rested largely on Ukraine's military industry. Putin understood perfectly well that he would not be able to restore Russia's greatness without Ukraine. Therefore, when it became clear that Ukraine had chosen to join the European Union, he decided to attack Ukraine and forcefully return it to his influence.

As for Russia's "invincibility," from the era of the Russian Empire to the present day, Russia (including the periods of the USSR and the Russian Federation) has suffered defeat in a number of major wars, leading to significant geopolitical, territorial, and domestic consequences. Chronological list of major lost wars:

1. Crimean War (1853–1856). Enemy: Coalition of the Ottoman Empire, Great Britain, France, and the Kingdom of Sardinia.
Result: Defeat, signing of the Treaty of Paris. Russia lost the right to maintain a navy in the Black Sea and influence in the Balkans, and ceded part of Bessarabia.

2. Russo-Japanese War (1904–1905) Enemy: Empire of Japan.
Result: A crushing defeat. Under the Treaty of Portsmouth, Russia ceded southern Sakhalin to Japan, along with its lease rights to the Liaodong Peninsula (including Port Arthur), and also recognized Korea as a Japanese zone of influence.

3. World War I (1914–1918) Enemy: The Quadruple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, Bulgaria).
Result: Despite initial successes on the fronts, the war led to economic collapse and the February Revolution. The separate Treaty of Brest-Litovsk (1918) withdrew from the war with enormous territorial losses (Russia lost Poland, Finland, the Baltics, Ukraine, and part of Belarus).

4. Soviet-Polish War (1919–1921) Enemy: Polish Republic.
Result: Defeat of the Red Army. By the Treaty of Riga in 1921, large territories of Western Ukraine and Western Belarus became part of Poland.

5. The USSR's participation in the war in Afghanistan (1979–1989) ended in strategic defeat, troop withdrawal, heavy human losses, and a large-scale geopolitical crisis that precipitated the collapse of the Soviet Union.

6. Cold War (1946–1991) Adversary: The United States, NATO countries, and their allies. Result: The systemic economic and political crisis of the socialist system led to the collapse of the USSR and culminated in the defeat of the Soviet geopolitical bloc.

Also worth noting is the Soviet-Finnish (Winter) War (1939–1940), which is often classified by historians as a military failure. Although the USSR ultimately annexed approximately 10% of Finland's territory (including the Karelian Isthmus) and moved the border away from Leningrad, its strategic goals (the complete capture of Finland and a change of government) were not achieved, and the Red Army suffered colossal and disproportionate losses.

[Ahli38]

In a large scale war, there is no winner. This is general knowledge from the World wars we had in the past. Innocent people lose lives while some get displaced, there is always a lot of damage to infrastructure and economic activities, we have the governments trying to spend a lot in arms while the citizens suffer with the crumbling economy which can take years to rebuild
How I wish the world always opted for diplomatic ways of resolving issues instead of showing off with arms and weapons.

Yes, that’s right. That is a reality that can never be forgotten. And that statement shows that a large-scale conflict will only result in losses for both sides. It is not just economic losses that can be incurred. Moral and even physical losses can also result in the aftermath of war. I personally strongly hope too that conflicts will always be resolved peacefully. And every country involved in a conflict is expected to immediately de-escalate tensions so that no more countries suffer the consequences of war. Sometimes the ego of a head of state must be quickly reined in so that a resolution can be found through diplomatic means. And high-level conferences such as those held by Trump recently are one example of diplomatic meetings that can foster good cooperation to create peace through strong relationships. War does not bring about peace it only fuels resentment.

[Bluedrem]

Both countries have suffered in the war, but I don't think Russia has suffered more than Ukraine. There are many natural resources on Russian soil. And if there is a supply of natural resources, alternative marketing is possible. I also think that alternative markets are gradually being created in Asia. ‌ But even though Ukraine is still surviving in the shadow of Western cooperation, they are losing infrastructure, human resources or other things, which is an example of their economic defeat.

[Swordsoffreedom]

Russia has already lost the war in Ukraine economically, military defeat is next

Russia is not like you imagine, even though the media talks a lot about it and you also say that Russia is currently being hit by an economic crisis, of course many people make the connection between Russia vs. Russia. Ukraine.

You need to understand, Russia is a genius, they have never lost a war or lost economically, Russia can still overcome all that by making oil prices expensive, Russia is the creator of weapons that are used by many countries, from other countries, it is clear here from their partner countries that Russia canhas an advantage.

In short, if I understand the Russian economy is actually not completely collapsed and defeated, but they are currently trapped in the Ukraine war, but it can be recovered without long-term impact.

To be fair, the Russian economy is stagnant and not doing well. However, that is normal because no country can maintain a strong economy and stable growth while embroiled in a prolonged war.

But to say that Russia will collapse is a one sided and unrealistic assessment. How could a nation possessing vast oil and natural resources, advanced technology, and global geopolitical influence collapse so easily? Russia's position on the world map, both politically and economically, is completely different from that of Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, and other countries. They will not easily collapse just because of a few unilateral sanctions from the West

The West is the one that has struggled and failed in this conflict, unable to tame the Russian bear.

[DrBeer]

It is a fact that Russia’s economy is spiraling downward. Industries are collapsing, markets are being lost, and the economy is becoming increasingly militarized. Ukraine is very effectively destroying Russia’s infrastructure-and, as a result, its economy.
But there are also those who stand to gain from this situation.
For example, "brotherly China and India" have secured for themselves a vast raw materials appendage, one that is ready to sell itself "for a bowl of rice". Now China and India are dictating to Russia what they will buy and at what price.
The Kremlin junta also benefits-the total impoverishment of entire regions, or more simply put, all regions except Moscow and St. Petersburg, which, having fallen below the poverty line and lacking jobs, become cheap "cannon fodder", the very resource with which "the world’s second-largest army captured Kyiv in three days"
But... the contracts are running out, as is the money to pay for them and the "death benefits", which means there will be a mobilization.
What does mobilization mean in a country with economic problems? It means... a labor shortage, a decline in production, factories shutting down... and the economy sliding further into the abyss.
  

[el kaka22]

Russia was always a terrorist country in my eyes, ever since I visited the lovely nation of Ukraine and saw the first wars damages and wounds. I was there before this new one started but after the first one 10+ years ago.

And people there were already tired, they were not losing hope, they were still looking at the future with hope, and now I know that some of those people are dead. Knowing this, I am sure that Russia and Russia lovers will come up with reasons to justify their own murder spree, but I know where I stand, I stand with Ukraine on this war. And I hope for them the best and I hope Russia collapses once again like the cold war.

[DiMarxist]

War is one thing that is costly and any nation that is ready to entering into war should be ready to bear the cost of the war. One the that I have come to love about this war is the fact that Ukraine didn't just chicken out when the Russians started their aggression on Ukraine. Ukraine was able to fight back with the help of European military hardwares and from that of America too, this is one lesson that small nations should learn not to give up when faced with these types of threats. Because Ukraine was able to gather mind and fight back with all their strength and we are seeing the effects of what is happening today.

[Perfectbaby]

Be careful with the wishful thinking, because Putin is willing to put his people through a lot more pain and Ukraine will suffer more because of that. It appears the current strategy for these decrepit old men to hang on to power is to create "forever wars" where they convert their country into a constant wartime mentality. It allows things like further erosion of freedoms, making people disappear (even easier), extra political repression and removing generations of young men who might rise up against internal political power. It's a similar thing to what we see in Israel. Putin was definitely scared to imagine an end like Saddam Hussein or Colonel Gadaffi in Libya, who saw "their" empire crumble in relatively short time scales. It's something that Trump is trying to create for America right now, with it's war without an end goal against Iran. I really wish to see Ukraine defeat Russia and they have done an amazing job against higher numbers, but this is a war is going to be a huge grind for both sides while Putin continues his petty crusade. It's only going to stop when he is removed from power, maybe that will happen before he dies of old age.

To be frank I do not really know the reason why nations, country are fighting themselves over every little thing around, I know is. Of that easy as we may think because whe war happens I. Between two countries or more they both lose in economy power because they are gradually losing soul and killing the Innocent wherea they should be that sensitive enough to avoid lots of attacks. From my understanding I have came to understand that Ukraine is a very small country while Russia Is above them in everything as I believe that Russia could likely take over the economy power because they are developing themselves and building more strategies to defeat their opponents whenever they strike.