Russia has already lost the war in Ukraine economically, military defeat is next

[nikola22]

It is a fact that Russia’s economy is spiraling downward. Industries are collapsing, markets are being lost, and the economy is becoming increasingly militarized. Ukraine is very effectively destroying Russia’s infrastructure-and, as a result, its economy.

unfortunately, Ukraine has rather limited resources for destroying russian infrastructure. drones are good but there aren't enough cruise missiles and ballistic missiles to inflict significant damage on military plants, not only oil refineries and chemical plants.

But there are also those who stand to gain from this situation.
For example, "brotherly China and India" have secured for themselves a vast raw materials appendage, one that is ready to sell itself "for a bowl of rice". Now China and India are dictating to Russia what they will buy and at what price.

China and India are profiting from the current situation and benefit from the war continuing as long as possible. however some of Ukraine's allies also buy russian oil and refined products citing a shortage of fuel on the market.

The Kremlin junta also benefits-the total impoverishment of entire regions, or more simply put, all regions except Moscow and St. Petersburg, which, having fallen below the poverty line and lacking jobs, become cheap "cannon fodder", the very resource with which "the world’s second-largest army captured Kyiv in three days"
But... the contracts are running out, as is the money to pay for them and the "death benefits", which means there will be a mobilization.
What does mobilization mean in a country with economic problems? It means... a labor shortage, a decline in production, factories shutting down... and the economy sliding further into the abyss.

these people from poor regions don't want to understand the root cause of their dire situation. instead of changing the regime in Russia itself many go to Ukraine to kill for money. Russia is spending enormous amounts of money on this massive shelling of Ukraine. this money could be used for regional development but they prefer to destroy neighboring country. I recall that Russia's financial collapse has been predicted since 2022 but unfortunately there's still a safety margin.

[Argoo]

unfortunately, Ukraine has rather limited resources for destroying russian infrastructure. drones are good but there aren't enough cruise missiles and ballistic missiles to inflict significant damage on military plants, not only oil refineries and chemical plants.

Ukraine still faces a shortage of cruise and ballistic missiles, but this shortage is largely offset by its own drones, which destroy up to 90 percent of all targets hit on the enemy's front lines and behind enemy lines. For several months now, Russia has been losing more killed and wounded than it can replenish its army.

The massive drone attack on Moscow on May 17 so frightened the Kremlin that it began deploying Pantsir missile-armed missiles directly onto the roofs of Moscow business centers and other high-rise buildings. However, the risk of hitting buildings in central Moscow is now significantly higher, as their rooftops automatically become legitimate military targets.

Although Putin's military command views southern Ukraine as one of the main staging areas for a deep breakthrough of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense lines during its summer offensive, the occupied part of southern Ukraine has now become Russia's Achilles heel, as it is almost entirely under the fire control of Ukrainian drones. Fuel tanks, trucks carrying military cargo, headquarters, and ammunition depots are ablaze along the entire length of the Russian army's supply routes, all the way to the Sea of Azov. In just the first two weeks of May, Russia lost 125 trucks on this section of the front, and such losses are mounting.
For this reason, the Russian command has ordered the conversion of trucks carrying military cargo into civilian vehicles by repainting them and applying various markings indicating their affiliation with civilian organizations. Such actions constitute war crimes, but Russia's war in Ukraine is nothing but war crimes committed by Russia itself.

[Doll2233]

We cannot predict the actual outcomes of a war when it is going on but it is true that these wars bring serious economic issues and other long term damage to the infrastructure and loss of human life. Long term effect will be seen after the war ends like wise the situation of military can be quickly changed it depends on the strategy and the resources and the external help they get from the other Nations instead of making one loser and the other winner of a war,  it may be more helpful to consider the broader economic consequences of the war. Situation is quite complex and evolving so we cannot predict the exact future. Both the countries have faced huge loss economically and infrastructure wise. What is a crime and crime brings  financial losses

[fruktik]

Will this result in the downfall of Putin? The elite is too scared, too compromised, too entangled in the system to move against him even when they can see the wall approaching. Well, that's how things are done. Everyone knows its failing. No one wants to say it aloud first for fear of the personal risk is tremendous. The system keeps going not because anyone believes in it but because everyone is afraid to be the one who breaks it.

The oligarchs' cronies will have no choice but to take matters into their own hands and stage a coup. Their capital is rapidly shrinking due to sanctions. Moreover, they can't leave the country anymore, which isn't what those with foreign property and the opportunity to vacation at the world's finest resorts are planning.

I believe a turning point will come this year, when Putin will be removed. They'll blame it on a serious illness or something similar. The "system" will have to "reboot." But what about everything else? That's the big question, and no one knows the answer.

[Danica22]

The oligarchs' cronies will have no choice but to take matters into their own hands and stage a coup. Their capital is rapidly shrinking due to sanctions. Moreover, they can't leave the country anymore, which isn't what those with foreign property and the opportunity to vacation at the world's finest resorts are planning.

I believe a turning point will come this year, when Putin will be removed. They'll blame it on a serious illness or something similar. The "system" will have to "reboot." But what about everything else? That's the big question, and no one knows the answer.

Forget about overthrowing the Putin regime. That is not going to happen and it is not as easy as you think.

Support for him may be waning because the protracted conflict has exhausted many people and businesses. But let's not forget that the fact that the Russians allowed and agreed to him leading the country for more than 26 consecutive years was no coincidence.

Social discontent does not automatically lead to leadership change, especially in long established system.

If we had to predict which government, Ukraine or Russia, would collapse and be replaced first? I'm betting more on Zelensky than on Putin, sooner or later he will resign or be overthrown.

[Synchronice]

Forget about overthrowing the Putin regime. That is not going to happen and it is not as easy as you think.

You are 100% correct. Overthrowing Putin? This is very laughable. It's not Putin alone and actually if people focus on what he says, they'll hear that Putin uses word "we", "us" and not I, like Trump does. What does this mean? Putin was the officer of the KGB. Do not make any mistake, KGB is extremely powerful and they do not randomly choose people. They chose Putin because he had characteristics what KGB needed. When Putin says "we", he means KGB. KGB rules Russia, not Putin alone.

Social discontent does not automatically lead to leadership change, especially in long established system.

If we had to predict which government, Ukraine or Russia, would collapse and be replaced first? I'm betting more on Zelensky than on Putin, sooner or later he will resign or be overthrown.

I'm also betting no Zelensky. It's much easier and possible to change Zelensky than Putin. Just look at what happened whoever went against Putin, they all died, even billionaires and the financially most powerful people, they all died. A billionaire is not only richest but one of the most powerful figure too and they all suddenly fell from the window (very strange, only happens in Russia) or committed a suicide.

[Suleiman the Magnificent]

Russia has been fighting Ukraine for so long that everyone is starting to realize that money isn't the only thing it has lost. At the end of the day, even if they win, they will have lost, in my opinion. Because in a war that has dragged on this long, the winner can only be considered a winner in a symbolic sense and in this war, there isn't even a symbolic winner yet.

[Danica22]

Russia has been fighting Ukraine for so long that everyone is starting to realize that money isn't the only thing it has lost. At the end of the day, even if they win, they will have lost, in my opinion. Because in a war that has dragged on this long, the winner can only be considered a winner in a symbolic sense and in this war, there isn't even a symbolic winner yet.

From the perspective of ordinary people like us, neither side will win because war has enormous costs, death, and irreversible losses. But for politicians it is different, they have their own agenda. For them, war was a tool to help them achieve their political goals.

The EU must have its own objectives in using Ukraine as a battleground for its proxy war with Russia. Meanwhile, Russia also has its own objectives in prolonging the war, even though it is suffering significant losses itself.

Who will win and who will suffer heavy losses, we will have to wait until the war is over.

[Exitoral]

Russia was always a terrorist country in my eyes, ever since I visited the lovely nation of Ukraine and saw the first wars damages and wounds. I was there before this new one started but after the first one 10+ years ago.

And people there were already tired, they were not losing hope, they were still looking at the future with hope, and now I know that some of those people are dead. Knowing this, I am sure that Russia and Russia lovers will come up with reasons to justify their own murder spree, but I know where I stand, I stand with Ukraine on this war. And I hope for them the best and I hope Russia collapses once again like the cold war.

Seriously, all this wars would have been prevented if Ukraine president didn't sign the deal for NATO to build a base in her country. Initially Ukraine has signed a deal not to allow NATO in her country. You see the problem here. How can you sign opposing deals. What else did Ukraine thought will happen? That Russia wouldn't retaliate. Of course they will. Russia saw this as a threat to her sovereignty. Knowing fully well what the real intentions of USA. Come to think of if, all the countries that USA has backed in a war has never really won any wars. It was just prolonged because it made some private institutions rich. Forget what you see online or in person. A bigger thing behind is at play here.

[Argoo]

Seriously, all this wars would have been prevented if Ukraine president didn't sign the deal for NATO to build a base in her country. Initially Ukraine has signed a deal not to allow NATO in her country. You see the problem here. How can you sign opposing deals. What else did Ukraine thought will happen? That Russia wouldn't retaliate. Of course they will. Russia saw this as a threat to her sovereignty. Knowing fully well what the real intentions of USA.

The opposition is seeking violations of the Ukrainian Constitution in the actions of the Ukrainian president, and here you directly point to such specific violations. Part 7 of Article 17 of the Constitution of Ukraine states: "The deployment of foreign military bases on the territory of Ukraine is prohibited."

In this case, could you please indicate the number and date of the conclusion of such an agreement, the parties that signed it, as well as where exactly, according to this agreement, the construction of a NATO military base is envisaged, and whether such a base was built.

The concluded agreement will only become officially possible after Ukraine becomes a full member of the North Atlantic Alliance.

Currently, some Ukrainian military infrastructure: some training grounds (for example, the Yavoriv training ground in Lviv Oblast) and bases (for example, the naval base in Ochakiv) have been modernized with the support of partner countries to comply with NATO policy, but they remain under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

[DrBeer]

It is a fact that Russia’s economy is spiraling downward. Industries are collapsing, markets are being lost, and the economy is becoming increasingly militarized. Ukraine is very effectively destroying Russia’s infrastructure-and, as a result, its economy.

unfortunately, Ukraine has rather limited resources for destroying russian infrastructure. drones are good but there aren't enough cruise missiles and ballistic missiles to inflict significant damage on military plants, not only oil refineries and chemical plants.

But there are also those who stand to gain from this situation.
For example, "brotherly China and India" have secured for themselves a vast raw materials appendage, one that is ready to sell itself "for a bowl of rice". Now China and India are dictating to Russia what they will buy and at what price.

China and India are profiting from the current situation and benefit from the war continuing as long as possible. however some of Ukraine's allies also buy russian oil and refined products citing a shortage of fuel on the market.

The Kremlin junta also benefits-the total impoverishment of entire regions, or more simply put, all regions except Moscow and St. Petersburg, which, having fallen below the poverty line and lacking jobs, become cheap "cannon fodder", the very resource with which "the world’s second-largest army captured Kyiv in three days"
But... the contracts are running out, as is the money to pay for them and the "death benefits", which means there will be a mobilization.
What does mobilization mean in a country with economic problems? It means... a labor shortage, a decline in production, factories shutting down... and the economy sliding further into the abyss.

these people from poor regions don't want to understand the root cause of their dire situation. instead of changing the regime in Russia itself many go to Ukraine to kill for money. Russia is spending enormous amounts of money on this massive shelling of Ukraine. this money could be used for regional development but they prefer to destroy neighboring country. I recall that Russia's financial collapse has been predicted since 2022 but unfortunately there's still a safety margin.

1.Let's just say that a couple of years ago the situation was really difficult due to the lack of medium and long range weapons.  In the last couple of years, Ukraine has started producing drones for short, medium and long-range attacks, and has also developed its own missiles, although of standard class, but with a good range. Now the strikes are carried out at distances of up to 3,000 kilometers deep into the terrorist's country.
Does it do any noticeable damage? YES! Already now the Russian economy is suffering huge losses and costs. Not to be unsubstantiated, from open sources and official channels:

"Vladimir Putin instructed the financial and economic block of the government to look for opportunities to reduce the budget in civilian and social spheres, categorically refusing to cut military spending. This decision was made against the background of a record deficit and warnings from the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance that the current level of war spending has become unsustainable for the economy.
Economic and budgetary details:
Shortage of funds: The budget deficit in the first quarter approached six trillion rubles, and the Defense Ministry's total deficit at the end of the year could be around three trillion rubles.
 Finance Ministry proposals: The head of the ministry, Anton Siluanov, proposed to reduce budget spending in all areas (up to three trillion rubles), except for defense, but was rejected by the president.
 Use of Reserves: The reserves of the National Welfare Fund have shrunk by more than 60% compared to pre-war levels, and economic growth has slowed to almost zero

2. China and India - yes, no one disputes that these two countries got Russia as a raw material appendage, pulling out all possible benefits and solving their problems at the same time.

3. poor regions in russia - ALL except Moscow and peterburg. Yes, some cities may even look good, but if you "dig deeper", under the beautiful wrapping we will see the same backwardness, poverty and degradation.

In short, destroying the economy and infrastructure of a terrorist's country is one way to stop his terror. Without the economy and industry, it is trivially impossible to provide the army with everything it needs, which is now perfectly evident.

[Argoo]

In an interview with the Swiss newspaper NZZ, Finnish President Alexander Stubb cited seven facts that, in his opinion, demonstrate Ukraine's advantage on the battlefield:

1. Ukrainian forces kill or wound approximately 35,000 Russian troops monthly. This rate has been maintained for the past six months.

2. At the same time, Russia can only recruit approximately 27,000 new troops monthly, creating a personnel shortage.

3. The loss ratio, previously one to three, is now one to eight in Ukraine's favor.

4. 95 percent of Russian casualties are caused by drone and missile attacks. Direct combat is decreasing.

5. A so-called kill zone, 20 to 40 km wide, has formed in the eastern and southern directions. Since the Russians are constantly attacking there, the fatality rate among drones is reaching approximately 95 percent.

6. Drone production in Ukraine is growing and could reach 10 million per year.

7. In April, for the first time since the war, Ukraine regained more territory than it lost. This ratio remained the same in May.

https://www.dsnews.ua/politics/ukrajina-maye-perevagu-na-fronti-prezident-finlyandiji-stubb-nazvav-sim-faktiv-07062026-461029/amp

Furthermore, the overwhelming superiority of Ukrainian drones on the front is acknowledged by Russian war correspondents even on Russia's central propaganda channels. Ukraine now completely controls the supply corridor for Russian troops in the south and simultaneously to the Crimean Peninsula. In the last four days alone, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have destroyed over 2,000 Russian fuel trucks in this direction. In Crimea, fuel is sold by coupons and is limited per vehicle. Food supplies are rapidly disappearing from stores. Crimea is becoming a trap for Russians, and they understand it.

[DrBeer]

A new and very significant factor in Ukraine’s advantage has been the ability to strike deep behind enemy lines using UAVs and new missiles developed in Ukraine. We’ve already seen Ukraine’s "flying sanctions" against the terrorist state, and we’ll likely see the "gas station state" turn into a "parking lot state"
Strikes have been carried out against an oil refinery in Moscow, which is protected by 4 (FOUR) rings of air defense and missile defense systems, while many high-rise buildings are equipped with "Pantsir" systems.
The destruction of entire industries in the terrorist state will serve as a prime example of how terrorists should be punished, rather than playing "backroom games" with them or trying to reason with them.
A Ukrainian ballistic missile is on the verge of mass production. Let’s see how much the Moscow terrorists will enjoy this game when key defense industry enterprises and infrastructure are destroyed by high-precision weapons.
 

[Argoo]

In the Donetsk region—the site of the fiercest fighting, driven by Putin’s ambition to seize the entire territory—Russian forces have suffered a crushing defeat during the latest phase of the "Vivaldi" counter-offensive, an operation the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) began covertly as early as late spring of this year.

Standing in the way of the occupying forces is the urban agglomeration of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka. This area serves as the primary and most heavily fortified defensive stronghold of the AFU in the Donetsk region—a position that has been under construction and refinement for years.
Having sustained heavy losses during frontal assaults on these fortifications, the Russian command devised a "pincer plan" (an operational encirclement) for the stronghold:
- The southern pincer: an advance northward through Pokrovsk and Dobropillia, aimed at flanking the defensive zone from the southwest. In mid-October, Russian forces took control of Dobropillia and Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, initiating combat on the outskirts of Druzhkivka itself.
- The northern pincer: an advance through Lyman and Sviatohirsk toward Barvinkove (in the Kharkiv region), intended to cut off the stronghold from the north.

To neutralize the threat from the north, the Defense Forces of Ukraine—under the command of the Third Army Corps—executed a covert, four-stage operation codenamed "Vivaldi" (named after the *Four Seasons* concertos). The operation began discreetly in late spring or early summer and concluded on October 14, 2026. The AFU completely dismantled the Russian "northern pincer," effectively stripping Russian forces of the ability to advance toward Barvinkove via Sviatohirsk. Over the course of several months, the Russian army’s total casualties in this sector—including both killed and wounded—exceeded 40,000 personnel.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, from the beginning of 2026 through mid-October, Russia has lost 350,260 troops—killed or wounded—in the war against Ukraine. The total losses of the Russian army since the start of the full-scale invasion have exceeded 1.55 million personnel.

[pooya87]

We've heard this ~5 years ago when the same entities were saying "Russian economy will fall apart in 6 months" and now it is ~4.5 years after that 6 month deadline and it hasn't fallen apart! So I wouldn't take this new wave of propaganda seriously either.
This very topic is already 5 months old!

However I would like to add a couple of points:

- Russia has had absolute victory over Ukraine so far. You can talk about result of single battles here and there or talk about the economic cost or casualties, etc. but at the end of the day Russia still holds a significant portion of Ukrainian soil and there is no indication that Ukraine is going to be capable of taking it back ever. That's the consequence of being NATO's proxy and having a Zionist as "president".

- Against NATO the situation is slightly different since this is a proxy war with NATO after all.
-- From NATO's expansion perspective, Russia has had losses since NATO expanded even more toward east and its threat grew more.
-- Against European arm of NATO, Russia has had many victories. One of it is in OP's post already:

Wars are usually fought for money: new markets, sources of material resources, and the property of defeated countries. Russia, above all, has lost the enormous European market that fed it for decades, and this market is lost to it, if not forever, then for a very long time.

It's a two way street. Europe lost access to the massive Russian market as well as dirt cheap energy and because of that their industries and production suffered the most. Many of their giant businesses went bankrupt and shut down like their smaller ones, and many others were bought up by the Chinese and now they are even more dependent on China!
That's in addition to the cost of this proxy war on European economy where their regimes had to cut from health care, education, public service, green energy, dozens of other places to fund this proxy war with Russia.
I'm not saying Russian economy hasn't suffered but we can see the consequences of OP's economic "collapse" that they Western propagandists have been talking about over the past 5 years in Europe not in Russia. One of the signs is the ongoing widespread protests that are starting to get more violent across Europe and Western Bloc in general.

-- Against the US arm of NATO, I dare say Russia is in loss so far. That loss began the day the US regime handed the proxy war file to CIA terrorists and they started the infrastructure war with Russia. Every time US bombs a Russian infrastructure and Russia retaliates by destroying a Ukrainian infrastructure (aka the proxy's infrastructure instead of punishing the proxy's master), that is a massive loss for Russia and a huge victory for the US regime.

[IjawMan]

The winners in this crazy war between Ukraine and Russia are only the leaders whom this war has perpetuated them in power using the scarce resources of these countries in waging the wars while the putting the lives of the people in daily dangers and unrest.

See how plumpy looking Zelensky and Putin that are leaders of this two countries are looking when they appear on TV, when their people are losing weight and living in fears for years since 2022.

I believe there is no economic gains on both countries. There are areas in Russia and Ukraine where schools are closed, companies are shutdown, all of this are all backwardness to economic development.

[Lucius]

The winners in this crazy war between Ukraine and Russia are only the leaders whom this war has perpetuated them in power using the scarce resources of these countries in waging the wars while the putting the lives of the people in daily dangers and unrest.

See how plumpy looking Zelensky and Putin that are leaders of this two countries are looking when they appear on TV, when their people are losing weight and living in fears for years since 2022.
~snip~

You can't put the president of a country that is defending itself in the same category as that barbarian who is waging war over territory in the 21st century. It seems that many people are influenced by American politics, which blames both sides for the war, but recently has increasingly shifted the blame for the war to Ukraine.

Ukraine defends its country in all possible ways and this exhausts it economically, but Russia has much greater resources and does not show that it cares about its people at all, which is the biggest difference in this war. Putler and his friends have accumulated trillions of dollars in their pockets and they don't care if the war will end today or if it will last for another 10 years.

War is paid for by ordinary people anyway, either in money with higher taxes or in lives on the front.

[EarnOnVictor]

You are valid on this, as it reflects mostly the economic situation of the war in-relation to Russia. Putin had bragged many times that Ukraine would be captured by his country within 2 weeks. But his 2 weeks has spanned 4 years and 8 months, and still counting.

That clown and wicked soul called Putin has been disgraced beyond measure, above other things, and has dragged his country's economy and financial capability into the mould.

[Cryptomultiplier]

The winners in this crazy war between Ukraine and Russia are only the leaders whom this war has perpetuated them in power using the scarce resources of these countries in waging the wars while the putting the lives of the people in daily dangers and unrest.

See how plumpy looking Zelensky and Putin that are leaders of this two countries are looking when they appear on TV, when their people are losing weight and living in fears for years since 2022.
~snip~

You can't put the president of a country that is defending itself in the same category as that barbarian who is waging war over territory in the 21st century. It seems that many people are influenced by American politics, which blames both sides for the war, but recently has increasingly shifted the blame for the war to Ukraine.

Ukraine defends its country in all possible ways and this exhausts it economically, but Russia has much greater resources and does not show that it cares about its people at all, which is the biggest difference in this war. Putler and his friends have accumulated trillions of dollars in their pockets and they don't care if the war will end today or if it will last for another 10 years.

War is paid for by ordinary people anyway, either in money with higher taxes or in lives on the front.

The ordinary people do suffer a lot and from most documentaries I have seen, it isn't funny at all what they have to go through including increase in taxes.
I believe Ukraine is still standing because it had help from other countries whereas Russia is solitary and the greatest blame goes to them for even starting the war.
Russia is drained economically because war is expensive and that's why the U.S over the years has learnt to use economic power instead of ground troops to fight wars to the most effect

The Kremlin right now is fighting both Ukraine and themselves because as it stands, the regime of Putin is almost collapsed.

[decodx]

See how plumpy looking Zelensky and Putin that are leaders of this two countries are looking when they appear on TV,
<...>

Plumpy looking? There must be something wrong with your TV. 

Neither of them looks anywhere close to out of shape. Both are actually in solid condition. Zelensky from years of intense training and probably a lot of stress, and Putin with his entire hyper-curated outdoor athlete image (dude literally spend half of his PR budget posing shirtless on horses).