Do we all now accept that the 4 year cycle is here to stay?

[Somegory]

The 4 years cycle mentality have fooled many people already, many people held on to their coins because of the 4 years cycle thinking that things will boom after Trump took office but nothing happend, other took profits on them and they are left with nothing.

I am not going to do that to myself, even after a year in a bull market, if I am in good profit I am seizing it before it's too late, 4 years cycle doesn't matter to me I don't care about it like some people do.

I advise people to do the same too, the 4 years cycle doesn't have to complete before you take your profits, or else you are risking round tripping your bag,

[adultcrypto]

It might seem like the 4 years cycle is over but the market is still respecting that till this very moment judging by all the ingredients that make up the cycle. There might be little variation in terms of months price peaks or bottoms but the reality is that the key attributes of the cycle are still with us. The only thing that have added serious confusion in the cycle is the ETF approval that lead to price making ATH before the halving and may also be the reason for the reduced volatility as some of the Bitcoin purchases are not onchain but via ETF.

[MinoRaiola]

I have been in BTC since the relative early days, and as much as I support the thought of never selling, I am not getting younger and do need to sell at some point, and that point is sometime in the next 4-8 years. That’s why I ask

You dont have to go all out. If you have been a hodle for a while, you know the cycles very well. And you can adjust your goals to fit your financial situation. Being a Bitcoin hodler should pay off for you, and with a healthy attitude with money, you surely be able to enjoy a good life with freedom. There are speculations that the next cycle will be in 2029, that is still a "long" way, but is it really long? Taking care of your health and trade a part of your holdings for something that make a better life for you, and this when a new all time hits.

[Zoomic]

I was one of those that believed the super cycle story and I paid darely for it by not exiting the market at the $120k levels. The super cycle failed but the dip was around 50% unlike the previous dips. What this tend to teach me is that institutions have entered and did not allow bitcoin to over crash. This mean this same institutions will also not allow bitcoin to over moon before they will start taking profits. What this technically mean is that volatility is reducing as adoption is increasing.

The 4 year cycle is not over yet, but it will gradually fade away. Not in this cycle and not in the next cycle, but little by little its effects on the market will reduce completely.

[Ahli38]

The 4-year cycle hasn’t ended. It has merely experienced a slight shift in market trends compared to previous patterns. If you look at the 500 days following a Bitcoin halving you’ll see that the peak of the cycle typically occurs around that time. The third Bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2020. And the 500 days following that would be around September 2021. The fourth Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024. And 500 days after that is around September 2025. Those are, where several halving cycle peaks have occurred. And we can see that Bitcoin’s ATH peak is also located there. The shift in Bitcoin’s market trend can be seen in the decline in its volatility. And Bitcoin no longer experiences sharp drops like in previous halving cycles, where it once fell by as much as four times its ATH price. But currently it’s very difficult for Bitcoin to see a significant decline in its price. You can see that even half of last year’s peak price hasn’t been reached this year or even a few months ago when Bitcoin was declining. So I personally believe the 4 year cycle is still intact. And I’m very confident that the next Bitcoin halving cycle will bring a positive trend to the Bitcoin market just like the last 4 year cycle that led to a reduction in Bitcoin’s volatility.

[Zaguru12]

There was a 50% drop, the ATH was $126000 but bitcoin dipped to $60000 in February of this year which was slightly more than 50%. But if bitcoin do not fall below $60000, it will be the least volatile cycle after ATH.

Even if it didn’t fall to that level, it was certainly going to be the least volatile bearish market because yearly we should be expecting the market volatility to drop each passing cycle. Many of our predictions were actually around 50% to 60% fall.

I think things are changing, and bitcoin might be more correlated now to world wide events, such as geopolitics, than halving cycles.

I think this is true most especially since the coming of more institutions through the ETF, bitcoin market investors sentiment is now tied to news (fundamentals as traders call it) and this institutions has also contributed to the market volatility reducing because most are more of holders even though the market cap is also contributing its one quarter too.

[Pandorak]

It's not like my feelings will change how the market behaves. Rather than accepting or disbelieving the trend, I'd rather figure out how to maximize my returns for the next bull run, or whenever the market reacts strongly to bullish sentiment. If anything, I tend to be on the side that most popular narrative are self-fulfilling prophecy to some extent, so unless I have enough influence to counter them, there's no need to dwell whether the pattern still exist or not.

You’re absolutely right. After all, no one knows for sure exactly how low Bitcoin price will drop during this bear market cycle, nor do we know whether Bitcoin might reach a new all time high again. All we can do is speculate; some may make predictions by looking at past price history using technical analysis, while others analyze by calculating the duration of previous bear market cycles.

Personally, i don’t have a specific strategy to maximize profits. I’ll just make purchases gradually and continue buying throughout this downturn. At least that’s what can be done right now, rather than speculating and waiting for the absolute bottom to buy.

[d5000]

In short, Bitcoin is going through monetization , the stage where an asset gradually becomes money. This process is not smooth or linear. It is highly volatile because the market is still trying to discover Bitcoin’s true price.

I hope you are correct, but I unfortunately don't think this is a "safe" scenario, much less an "automatism".

There are still scenarios in play where Bitcoin stays speculative and will not continue the path of monetization, and volatility reduction stalls. And then there is a certain danger that a lot of what happened to many altcoins will also happen to Bitcoin: it gradually will become less attractive for investors, start to fail to achieve new ATHs, and perhaps enter a long bear market afterwards (>2-4 years). This would be the final death blow to all 4 year cycle theories. And these theories were also part of the "hopium" that would incentive people to invest in crypto winters, so the fall could be quite dramatic.

This situation is not irrecoverable, I would argue that if BTC does not fall below $1000 approximately it is likely that it will recover, above all if retailers take the chance to recover coins from ETFs and other centralized entities.

But monetization is imo a social process, and thus it depends on the behaviour of the crowds. I believe Bitcoiners can actively try to support this process, using Bitcoin for payments (and thus rewarding merchants who adopt it), and trying out solutions like Lightning and Ark.

In the end, if Bitcoin successfully becomes a global currency the 4 year cycle would no longer matter. It would be relatively stable, and while it would not bring you extreme returns, it's likely it will be an excellent method to save money, better than (stock) ETFs or gold today.

[purple_sparkles]

I think bitcoin no longer follows the 4-year cycle as clearly as it used to. Now the cycle feels more blurred and stretched out compared to the past, when the movements were much sharper and more aggressive. I connect this with the fact that more and more investors are becoming interested in bitcoin, which makes it harder to manipulate the price as strongly as before.I think the price volatility will continue to decrease over time. And while there is still an opportunity to buy bitcoin at lower prices and later sell it during a major bull pump, it makes sense to take advantage of it.

[TeeTeen]

From what I understand, Bitcoin has a 4 year cycle and every 4 years a new cycle starts. I really want to understand how this cycle is completed.