Ethereum as the Leading Indicator: Why Bitcoin Might Follow the Current Downtren

[Alpen]

Analysts can envisage two possible scenarios for Bitcoin's immediate future. There is an equal chance of either outcome: the cryptocurrency could rise above $80,000 or fall below $75,000.



The Ethereum chart can accurately predict future BTC movements. Ethereum prices have been falling for ten days.
Despite having a high correlation coefficient with Bitcoin ranging from 70% to 95%, Ethereum has fallen in value three times in the last five years due to Bitcoin's growth. Each time, BTC followed the altcoin down eventually.



However, these discrepancies did not alter the global trend of Bitcoin. Currently, we are on the verge of a two-year growth cycle influenced by the upcoming halving event

[GreatArkansas]

I'm surprised now that Bitcoin will follow Ethereum instead of Ethereum and other altcoins will follow Bitcoin.

So, for me, since the Bitcoin Dominance is still high and bullish for me, I totally don't agree with this. I'm still not convinced we will see some altcoins' bullish moves in the near future, especially since Bitcoin is trying to get back to $100,000. I am still expecting altcoins or even Ethereum to have a hard time catching up.

[d5000]

I don't agree that the last chart shows that "Bitcoin follows Ethereum".

What I see instead is that ETH is much more volatile and much less bullish than Bitcoin (ETH didn't really achieve a new ATH in 2025).

In the last dump in early 2025, at the first glance it looks like the ETH dump anticipates the BTC dump. But in reality, the ETH dump occurred at the time of a small BTC dump. Then a larger BTC dump followed, but ETH dumped even much further down.

And the difference between chart 1 and chart 2 is NOT that Bitcoin didn't dump when Ethereum dumped in mid-May (it actually dumped a bit, with less volatility than ETH of course,, from 82k to 76k). Instead what occurred is that Bitcoin pumped to a new 3-month high of 82k in early May, while Ethereum wasn't able to score a new temporary high.