Prediction markets are incentivizing insider knowledge

[dwyane36]

- Prediction market gamblers should avoid any market where insiders with exact information can exist, for example product launches or other news related to particular decisions of companies or other organizations, including governments.

Unfortunately, on platforms like Polymarket, there aren’t many prediction markets where insiders don’t have an advantage over regular users. In fact, only asset price prediction markets (for BTC and alts) are worth paying attention to, since in these markets everyone places bets on equal terms.

[asriloni]

I'd rather call prediction market as market of manipulation instead of a prediction market to predict an event. There are only grifter from the bottom to the top. It's sometimes can be even worsen than an ordinary gambling site. It's all because the platform itself keep incentivized insider traders.

No doubt even its CEO was also supporting this dumb insider traders. This platform is just for the rich person who control others live by using their money as a tool and no more.

Anyone who think it becomes a life changing likes trading is dumb enough. There is only a whale kill the shrimp in prediction platform.

[xenomorfo]

I'd rather call prediction market as market of manipulation instead of a prediction market to predict an event. There are only grifter from the bottom to the top. It's sometimes can be even worsen than an ordinary gambling site. It's all because the platform itself keep incentivized insider traders.

No doubt even its CEO was also supporting this dumb insider traders. This platform is just for the rich person who control others live by using their money as a tool and no more.

Anyone who think it becomes a life changing likes trading is dumb enough. There is only a whale kill the shrimp in prediction platform.

in fact it seems to me to be a place where only those who know things bet without winning
Unfortunately you know that there are always scams at all levels throughout the world
especially in the online world, scams multiply since you don't have to have a brazen face and show your face
you just have to be careful

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Honestly, I used to think that the insider trading is only a beneficial act for an trader that was opportune to have a confidential information and then used it to take advantage from the prediction market, I didn't know the prediction market it self are involved in doing this and then taking advantage of the poor masses who are going to be trading on an event that they have already rigged, it made sense to me after reading the OP and also watching the video. If they contacted this people to help them flourish in their scam, then they can be sued if am not wrong, because it's now assumed that they have been doing it.  What I also understand from this thing is that one must not trust all platform that ask you to vote or bet on a particular market event, assuring you that the option has more chance to win, those assurance could just be to deceive the person and let the prediction market make profit while a large number of traders lose.

[YOSHIE]

Prediction markets are incentivizing insider knowledge

It's not surprising that I once read in one source, I forgot where I read about Polymarket taking advantage of insider incentives, for that reason I saw that Polymarket was facing a bad situation, where the relevant authorities were conducting an investigation.

The aim is nothing else, they are worried and suspicious whether they involve government employees, people from certain institutions, politicians and so on. On the one hand, if the money people I mentioned above are playing, of course the aim is none other than wanting to make as much profit as possible.

[Agbamoni]

Polymarket is becoming a problem for society. I have seen concrete evidence linking multiple accounts belonging to major companies and popular public figures on X regarding working with insider traders in Polymarket. The predictions site is not to be trusted, but those who would still use the prediction site are those who want to take advantage of the site not being regulated. Soon, no one would believe betting is fair because of how unfair the polymarket system is.

[acroman08]

If this is true, shouldn't this be illegal? I hope they get more credible evidence to make their expose stick more.

Anyway, this is just another reason to avoid prediction markets like Polymarket, and if they are allowed to operate, they should be regulated as a casino, because that's what they are.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Polymarket is becoming a problem for society. I have seen concrete evidence linking multiple accounts belonging to major companies and popular public figures on X regarding working with insider traders in Polymarket. The predictions site is not to be trusted, but those who would still use the prediction site are those who want to take advantage of the site not being regulated. Soon, no one would believe betting is fair because of how unfair the polymarket system is.

I wouldn't say that they are not a problem, gambling per se is a problem to all society. As we have seen news of countries being affected negatively.But Polymarket is something different, as you have said, it can be used by powerful individual to manipulate or they could have known the results ahead so they play this one and make a lot of money from it.

We have seen proofs already that's why regulators are gunning after Polymarket now. They don't want this service to thrive because there are individuals taking advantage of it and that is obviously no fair play in there.

[Agbamoni]

Polymarket is becoming a problem for society. I have seen concrete evidence linking multiple accounts belonging to major companies and popular public figures on X regarding working with insider traders in Polymarket. The predictions site is not to be trusted, but those who would still use the prediction site are those who want to take advantage of the site not being regulated. Soon, no one would believe betting is fair because of how unfair the polymarket system is.

I wouldn't say that they are not a problem, gambling per se is a problem to all society. As we have seen news of countries being affected negatively.But Polymarket is something different, as you have said, it can be used by powerful individual to manipulate or they could have known the results ahead so they play this one and make a lot of money from it.

Gambling is not the problem of a society. It is an activity, and activities are done by choice, not by force. If people are gambling because they are poor, then the government and the system should be blamed for why there are poor people in the society, and not blame gambling. When unemployment is high, minimum wage is low, and there are no good opportunities, people resort to means where they can get quick profit, through schemes, fraud, or gambling. So in a simple sense, gambling is seen as a problem to society because of the economic pressure.

[Alphakilo]

If this is true, shouldn't this be illegal? I hope they get more credible evidence to make their expose stick more.

Anyway, this is just another reason to avoid prediction markets like Polymarket, and if they are allowed to operate, they should be regulated as a casino, because that's what they are.

The predictions market right now do not want to be seen as a casino kind of gambling, instead they are the exact name they bear and prefer regulators make laws in this regard that governs them and make them distinct from casino gambling. That's why there's so much struggles surrounding them and some countries have got to ban them as illegal gambling sites.

I believe that they are simply just designed to transfer wealth from those anxious retail customers, into the pockets to incentivised insiders, because the predictions market actually thrives on insider information to function.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Polymarket is becoming a problem for society. I have seen concrete evidence linking multiple accounts belonging to major companies and popular public figures on X regarding working with insider traders in Polymarket. The predictions site is not to be trusted, but those who would still use the prediction site are those who want to take advantage of the site not being regulated. Soon, no one would believe betting is fair because of how unfair the polymarket system is.

If they continue like that, sooner or later, they will have a big problem that is going crash their reputation, we can already see that some countries has banned them, it's likely possible that other prediction market that is more trusted will take over and dominate the market. As for those using the platform, if I were them, I won't bet on any event that I'm quite sure that it has been rigged by inside trading.

[Agbe]

Polymarket is becoming a problem for society. I have seen concrete evidence linking multiple accounts belonging to major companies and popular public figures on X regarding working with insider traders in Polymarket. The predictions site is not to be trusted, but those who would still use the prediction site are those who want to take advantage of the site not being regulated. Soon, no one would believe betting is fair because of how unfair the polymarket system is.

If they continue like that, sooner or later, they will have a big problem that is going crash their reputation, we can already see that some countries has banned them, it's likely possible that other prediction market that is more trusted will take over and dominate the market. As for those using the platform, if I were them, I won't bet on any event that I'm quite sure that it has been rigged by inside trading.

Prediction market is not a scripted events or football playing on the pitch like other casinos use to buy it is a live events which government is also hiding from the citizens because once citizens see those things, it would provoke them. And countries do not allow them to operate in their countries because of these. And what I am thinking, Polymarket might be sponsoring by an opposition parties to bring things to live.

[JeffBrad12]

If this is true, shouldn't this be illegal? I hope they get more credible evidence to make their expose stick more.

Anyway, this is just another reason to avoid prediction markets like Polymarket, and if they are allowed to operate, they should be regulated as a casino, because that's what they are.

The fact Polymarket team doesn't want their platforms to be treated as a traditional gambling platform. This is also the reason why they keep their platforms become unlicensed, though they aware if their platform would be banned. That's also the reason why they didn't even get rid of their insider trading.
They said they would be cleaning their platform, but it's never happening. It's also the reason why more countries see them as a problematic platform. So those countries decision to ban Poly is good.

[Wakate]

Was it not until we play prediction market before we becomes a victim of any unfortunate circumstances in such regards, in gambling, everyone of us is expected to make his personal research about the kind of bet to take and also understand the risk and consider the chances of winning to that of losing, if you don't want to put yourself into unnecessary headache don't go for prediction market.

The prediction market is a main scam but the problem is the many people are not yet aware of what's happening in the market.
We have seen the rate at which so many prediction market are coming into reality and this shows that they may want to join their colleagues to increase the manipulation they have been using to earn much from gambling by their users.

[Doan9269]

The issue with playing poly market is that you may not be able to predict what the actual situation is when it comes to the administrators that have behind this kind of risk taken guesses, a lot of gamblers avoid it, all because they cannot trust the process in poly market, so if you are the type that is most sensitive to avoiding risk in gambling or any other thing that will rent your money at loss, you will know that prediction market is not worth one can rely on their entire process, because the probability of you losing is more higher than you thought when starting.

[Sandra_hakeem]

Prediction markets are 100% gambling and should be regulated as such. It is absolutely OBSCENE that just because it is new and currently in a law loophole of not being classified and regulated as it should be, people are going to throw their money away into the pockets of the corrupt people behind this scam. And it is a scam until they become regulated. I do not advise anyone use prediction markets.

I thought they  pleaded guilty for operating illegally all these years and are now licensed and regulated by the government? I can't recall clearly, but I think I read something similar to that, particularly about poly market. The whole scheme is to milk billions and billions out of those who feel insecure.

Insider knowledge has always been an advantage for the 2% that makes a steady income off of betting, but it seems it's getting out of hand if they tried to contact perfect Union. What do they end up doing with all these billions of dollars? They buy insignificant drawings and portraits that are worse than a scribble from a child in 3rd grade, for hundreds of millions.

[d5000]

Unfortunately, on platforms like Polymarket, there aren’t many prediction markets where insiders don’t have an advantage over regular users.

I've looked into the top markets according to https://polymarketanalytics.com/markets and that are the top 10:

1. US Presidential Election winner
2. Permanent peace deal US/Iran
3. Democratic presidential nominee
4. 2026 FIFA world cup winner
5. Republican presidential nominee
6. Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
7. Will the US confirm that aliens exist?
8. Bitcoin price in May
9. Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
10. Bitcoin price in 2026

I don't see any particular market on this list where insider trading would have really a disproportionate influence (like they could have with product launch dates, for example). The only two where insider trading is significantly possible to some extent is the peace deal (2) and the "confirmation that aliens exist" (7 - which is surprisingly high at 16% for Yes, I don't know if this includes microscopic/bacterian life, then it would be more understandable, and then NASA insiders of course could have an advantage). The election-related markets could only get significantly influenced by insiders very close to the end date when exit polls already exist.

That is also a question I see generally. If there are insider traders in a market like an election market, when they for example become aware of a new, surprising (i.e. which significantly could change the trend) poll before it is published, then the odds would change a little bit before they would change anyway (when the poll is published). Thus the "unknowing" participant won't get necessarily harmed. Instead they get the information about the poll a little bit earlier. Or do I miss something here?

[Akbarkoe]

Prediction markets are 100% gambling and should be regulated as such. It is absolutely OBSCENE that just because it is new and currently in a law loophole of not being classified and regulated as it should be, people are going to throw their money away into the pockets of the corrupt people behind this scam. And it is a scam until they become regulated. I do not advise anyone use prediction markets.

From the beginning I considered the prediction market is a bet that is easily manipulated, those behind the scenes withdraw money easily from gamblers who only talk about fun and also talk about luck, even though the victory and luck expected by bettors depends on how the people who organize it all behind the scenes, and those who get access to information first will get a big advantage. This is clearly an unfair bet, where there are groups that know the answer and there are groups that really rely on luck so that the answer wins the bet.

[AmoreJaz]

Prediction markets are 100% gambling and should be regulated as such. It is absolutely OBSCENE that just because it is new and currently in a law loophole of not being classified and regulated as it should be, people are going to throw their money away into the pockets of the corrupt people behind this scam. And it is a scam until they become regulated. I do not advise anyone use prediction markets.

From the beginning I considered the prediction market is a bet that is easily manipulated, those behind the scenes withdraw money easily from gamblers who only talk about fun and also talk about luck, even though the victory and luck expected by bettors depends on how the people who organize it all behind the scenes, and those who get access to information first will get a big advantage. This is clearly an unfair bet, where there are groups that know the answer and there are groups that really rely on luck so that the answer wins the bet.

First and foremost, as a regular business itself, they should conform to the regulations of a legal business. Now that it is under gambling type of business, they should acquire such license also. Otherwise, they are just milking people and only want to earn money for themselves. So they should not be exempted to any business regulations.

Now that prediction markets are gaining traction from the gambling community, I believe they will be hot in the eyes of the authorities. And so, they should really have legal basis of their operations at all times. Also, bettors should be cautious also in selecting those betting lines. Doubt when there's large volume of money at stake. Something is fishy in some cases as they want to exhaust the money from these naive bettors.

[knuckey]

I just saw this video and found it very thought provoking:
Polymarket Asked To Work With Us. We Exposed Their Scam Instead. | by
More Perfect Union

I'd recommend everyone interested in prediction market activity to take a look because it goes through some things I hadn't considered even though I like to observe what's going on with this subject almost daily. If you'd like to watch something thought provoking you can actually go watch the video before reading the rest of my thoughts to avoid spoilers.

It's difficult to run a proper project on a straight path. Polymarket is already quite large and has begun to gain the trust of many people. However, they seem to want to take the easy route to achieve their goals. However, they actually met someone who exposed Polymarket's crimes. If I'm not mistaken, my prediction is that Polymarket may not be able to operate in the long term. Am I right? I haven't done any analysis, just a guess.