Prediction markets legality as gambling or derivative trading platforms

[Oshosondy]

There have been more news that we have been reading about prediction markets like Polymarket and Kashi. News that are about their ban and legalities. It will be good if we discuss this on a single thread instead and which is the purpose of this topic.

These are lists of countries that have banned prediction markets:
Argentina
Belgium
Brazil
Canada
France
India
Indonesia
New Zealand
Portugal
Spain

Some countries are reviewing if prediction market should be banned or not.
One of the countries is:
South Korea

Know that some of these countries like Indonesia and South Korea banned gambling. Prediction market operators see prediction markets as platforms where derivatives are traded, but some countries see them as gambling sites.

Any country that you know that I have not mentioned that banned prediction markets, you can post about it.

Any news we see about the legality of prediction markets as gambling sites or not, we can post about it on this thread.

[Oshosondy]

Trump defended CFTC stance on prediction market

We have threads about this on this forum, about many states the United States sued prediction market like Polymarket and Kalshi, including Coinbase, that they are offering gambling products. The matter is still in court, but Trump defended CFTC which see the prediction markets as trading derivatives.

You can read about it on Truth Social
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116642964849373081

[IjawMan]

What are we expecting as defence that the operators of this market would come up with as excuse to ensure their means of making money do not fold.

Of course they will coat it to be derivative trading platforms but we all know what is gambling when we see one and that is exactly what the prediction market is.

Just the same way SK and Indonesia had to ban gambling that will be the fate of prediction market and the list of many more bans will keep surfacing.

[Hispo]

Interestingly enough, it does not actually matter if prediction websites are classified as gambling services or trading derivatives, in the end nobody can deny there is an actual abuse of privileged information being used to profit from the majority of people while a minority pockets most of the money.

In my personal opinion, the nature of the market being offered in those websites actually depend on the amount of influence one single person can apply in order to change the outcome of it. The most easily one single party can change the outcome, then the further away that market is from being classified as gambling.

I have the feeling the list of countries that have banned Poly will only increase in the coming months.

[CryptSafe]

Trump defended CFTC stance on prediction market

We have threads about this on this forum, about many states the United States sued prediction market like Polymarket and Kalshi, including Coinbase, that they are offering gambling products. The matter is still in court, but Trump defended CFTC which see the prediction markets as trading derivatives.

You can read about it on Truth Social
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116642964849373081

So far, I have not really seen a President like Trump taking such a step to defend the prediction market. Other countries' presidents are hard on the prediction market, but the US is different. Is there something we do not know about this yet?  Aside from the fact that the government benefits from it through taxes and revenues, etc., what else does it benefit the government? Or is there a personal benefit from the prediction market, or are there lackies and croonies who do the dirty jobs from an unknown destination with returns?

[red4slash]

Whatever the language is basically as long as it is in the gamble I feel that it becomes speculative to become gambling even though it is said to be a prediction market but when it is in the gamble in it it will only be included in the gambling agenda.


But for the issue of legality it will ultimately only be a condition to a particular country, if a country that still makes gambling a legal thing then the prediction market will also be considered legal but it will be different if a country makes gambling illegal then the prediction market will also be considered illegal.

An example of a recent case occurred in my country when the polymarket prediction market was considered illegal because it smelled of gambling even though the reason behind it in the end there were other things that made this ban in my country but the reasons that surfaced still led to gambling that made polymarket illegal.
 

[Asiska02]

Know that some of these countries like Indonesia and South Korea banned gambling. Prediction market operators see prediction markets as platforms where derivatives are traded, but some countries see them as gambling sites.

This should be one of the biggest fintech battles of recent. Different countries classify them differently and that’s why we are seeing different opinions on the stance of prediction markets. While some see it as a gambling platform, others see it as a financial derivative market, while some does not have an actual stance on it. Despite them coming to clarify that they’re only a provider for users to participate in information markets and trading of contracts, which looks like derivative trading, they’re still argued on being an online gambling platform. With the stance on most countries on this, I feel we may even have had more countries coming to ban it more, especially those countries where regulations are strict.

Interestingly enough, it does not actually matter if prediction websites are classified as gambling services or trading derivatives, in the end nobody can deny there is an actual abuse of privileged information being used to profit from the majority of people while a minority pockets most of the money.

Insider trading, gambling addiction effects and market manipulation happens to be one of the issues of concerns from regulators of what these prediction markets are, so it makes it even of more concern for gambling regulators to step in and take action instead of financial regulators.

[imthegreat]

There have been more news that we have been reading about prediction markets like Polymarket and Kashi. News that are about their ban and legalities. It will be good if we discuss this on a single thread instead and which is the purpose of this topic.

These are lists of countries that have banned prediction markets:
Belgium
Brazil
Canada
France
India
Indonesia
New Zealand
Portugal
Spain

Some countries are reviewing if prediction market should be banned or not.
One of the countries is:
South Korea

Know that some of these countries like Indonesia and South Korea banned gambling. Prediction market operators see prediction markets as platforms where derivatives are traded, but some countries see them as gambling sites.

Any country that you know that I have not mentioned that banned prediction markets, you can post about it.

Any news we see about the legality of prediction markets as gambling sites or not, we can post about it on this thread.

Gambling is indeed prohibited in South Korea, but there are exceptions, such as in Russia. It's banned there too. However, sports betting is permitted in both countries. In South Korea, there's a place where any Korean can gamble, called kangwon land. In Russia, there are about seven such places, and they're all located in Krasnaya Polyana. So, officials reserve places for themselves where they can relax, kek. The situation is similar in other countries. And of course, there are still ways to gamble on polymarkets; they're not difficult.

[_act_]

So far, I have not really seen a President like Trump taking such a step to defend the prediction market. Other countries' presidents are hard on the prediction market, but the US is different. Is there something we do not know about this yet?  Aside from the fact that the government benefits from it through taxes and revenues, etc., what else does it benefit the government? Or is there a personal benefit from the prediction market, or are there lackies and croonies who do the dirty jobs from an unknown destination with returns?

What I know about it is still about taxes. Polymarket, Kalshi, Coinbase, Gemini and many other sites that are offering prediction markets are most likely from the United States. Although not all of them but Polymarket and Kalshi make up 85 to 90% of prediction makes volume. So United States will benefit from it if countries all over the world accept the sites.

[danherbias07]

So far, I have not really seen a President like Trump taking such a step to defend the prediction market. Other countries' presidents are hard on the prediction market, but the US is different. Is there something we do not know about this yet?  Aside from the fact that the government benefits from it through taxes and revenues, etc., what else does it benefit the government? Or is there a personal benefit from the prediction market, or are there lackies and croonies who do the dirty jobs from an unknown destination with returns?

What I know about it is still about taxes. Polymarket, Kalshi, Coinbase, Gemini and many other sites that are offering prediction markets are most likely from the United States. Although not all of them but Polymarket and Kalshi make up 85 to 90% of prediction makes volume. So United States will benefit from it if countries all over the world accept the sites.

The same for me.

It's all about the taxes and not about beliefs or traditional ways.
When one country would not even profit from a business that is entering their country, why accept it? It's the benefit that they want. They can make local gambling sites instead of using prediction markets that are not in their country, which means they won't have anything to make from it. All the money of their countrymen is just going out, and nothing is coming in. That money circulation plays a big role in the economy of a country. Now, if it's only the US that is taking all the benefits from the taxes on the said names, then why should other countries even bother accepting them? Banning them will be the best option while offering their countrymen an alternative that is made locally.

[MArsland]

I see Polymarket and Kalshi as indeed gambling markets masquerading as derivatives trading platforms. In reality, this is hardly much different from gambling, is it? To be honest, these platforms have managed to outsmart regulation. No wonder some countries prefer to classify them as gambling centers because there are only two options where you will experience 2 conditions of losing or winning the money wagered or predicted.
 

[CryptSafe]

The same for me.

It's all about the taxes and not about beliefs or traditional ways.
When one country would not even profit from a business that is entering their country, why accept it? It's the benefit that they want. They can make local gambling sites instead of using prediction markets that are not in their country, which means they won't have anything to make from it. All the money of their countrymen is just going out, and nothing is coming in. That money circulation plays a big role in the economy of a country. Now, if it's only the US that is taking all the benefits from the taxes on the said names, then why should other countries even bother accepting them? Banning them will be the best option while offering their countrymen an alternative that is made locally.

Yes, taxes are a must for the prediction markets if they are to exist in their region of operation. But what I am yet to get is this: does it mean that only the US benefits from these markets in terms of taxation, as a result of the fact that the organisations are located in the US? Other nationals do play on the websites, so they should also be remitting taxes to those nations because their nationals also play on their platforms, or am I wrong?  Because I see from your statement that those nations also ban these sites because of the fact that they do not benefit from the taxes even when their nationals play on the platform, or am I wrong?

[Alpha Marine]

Trump defended CFTC stance on prediction market

No surprises here. It's obvious he will support it.
His son is a big investor in Polymarket and also a strategic advisor in both Polymarket and Kalshi, so it's no secret that the Trump family has a piece of the cake of these prediction market and knowing Trump, he would alway protect his interest.

Of course they will coat it to be derivative trading platforms but we all know what is gambling when we see one and that is exactly what the prediction market is.

They are not a derivative market. A derivative market allows people to trade on the future price movement of assets, while a prediction market offers that to an extent, they have gone beyond that. Now you can bet on the future real-life events and sports. If that is not gambling, I don't know what is. 90% of the options on Kalshi are sports related. Either teams or individual players.

I don't have anything against them though. This is how the system works. You just need to find the loopholes in the law and exploit it. They are doing that so far, so it is left for country to find a way not to make sure people don't exploit the law.

[KTChampions]

~
Any news we see about the legality of prediction markets as gambling sites or not, we can post about it on this thread.

The essence of the topic is not entirely clear. It is obvious that there is a worldwide trend towards building a digital concentration camp. And there are more and more restrictions, under the pretext of "child protection" and other such made-up nonsense. We're talking about casinos, but at the same time, social media for teenagers is being banned (isn't this a violation of constitutional rights in most countries?). The situation with freedoms in general is poor, it's probably no longer worth singling out problems with access to casinos as a separate category.

[DPHOR]

If all these countries ban polymarket then which countries are they freely operating on?
And why would they see polymarket and kashi as derivative platform? Knowing fully well that polymarket is a gambling site and even though they are seeing them as predictions market.
The fact is that, polymarket and Kashi has refused to accept the fact that they are gambling sites that is the reason why they are facing all these sanctions.

[letteredhub]

If all these countries ban polymarket then which countries are they freely operating on?
And why would they see polymarket and kashi as derivative platform? Knowing fully well that polymarket is a gambling site and even though they are seeing them as predictions market.
The fact is that, polymarket and Kashi has refused to accept the fact that they are gambling sites that is the reason why they are facing all these sanctions.

It's just as @_act_ mentioned, the market is predominantly benefited by the US economy than it is for the other countries where they're operates as offshore platforms. So basically it could be more of an economic related unequal benefit between countries aside the fact that the polymarket which designate itself as a prediction market is ultimately taking such status in other to penetrate certain markets (countries) where gambling is highly prohibited.

[348Judah]

Prediction market is not gambling neither is it trading, so those that will be going for it should be well prepared for the risk that is associated with this, I will also support the government when it comes to things like this to be banned because of the danger and risk that is there, while the process has no reliability.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Concerning this recent trend about President Trump defending prediction market most especially kalshi and poly market, Trump said he was not in favour of the industry but now him and his family are involved in the industry, so he sees the need to defend it. You can read here, so it also means that if his family was not directly involved in the industry, he would not have defended it. So, this is actually political, for personal interest.

 Those prediction market must have been certified by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a future or derivative trading platform but by definition, derivatives referred to as contracts that allow traders to make bets on the future value of an asset, now the question is, can those events that these prediction markets list be referred to as an asset or an event?  Prediction markets are gambling platform and not trading. They just include crypto betting so as to convince people that they are trading platform while they are fully a gambling website.

[Wakate]

What are we expecting as defence that the operators of this market would come up with as excuse to ensure their means of making money do not fold.

Of course they will coat it to be derivative trading platforms but we all know what is gambling when we see one and that is exactly what the prediction market is.

Just the same way SK and Indonesia had to ban gambling that will be the fate of prediction market and the list of many more bans will keep surfacing.

The prediction market has nothing to do with derivative trading and the different ideas are not what the prediction market is doing even though her users have to make predictions on politics and natural disasters. There are big politicians that are backing the polymarket and that is why we have not seen anything like a ban in the United States.

[Dogedegen]

Any news we see about the legality of prediction markets as gambling sites or not, we can post about it on this thread.

I remember seeing some threads in which there were discussions about if prediction markets should be treated as gambling or not. It depends on the country's laws but there were some useful posts there, maybe we can look for that one and bring up some quotes. I am having trouble using the forum search to find it, maybe someone else is better at that.

Trump defended CFTC stance on prediction market

We have threads about this on this forum, about many states the United States sued prediction market like Polymarket and Kalshi, including Coinbase, that they are offering gambling products. The matter is still in court, but Trump defended CFTC which see the prediction markets as trading derivatives.

You can read about it on Truth Social
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116642964849373081

They have a little bit of both aspects when it comes to US law, that is how I understood it so some of gambling and some of trading products but ultimately it comes down to whether it is more gambling or a more trading product. The court will decide that based on established facts, for me it seems a bit like it is designed as a cheat to provide gambling by hiding itself as a trading product and if this is the case then it is likely to be ruled as gambling. Still until the court issues a ruling and until appeals all pass the companies are able to earn money from providing this and that is what they are betting on.

Interestingly enough, it does not actually matter if prediction websites are classified as gambling services or trading derivatives, in the end nobody can deny there is an actual abuse of privileged information being used to profit from the majority of people while a minority pockets most of the money.

In my personal opinion, the nature of the market being offered in those websites actually depend on the amount of influence one single person can apply in order to change the outcome of it. The most easily one single party can change the outcome, then the further away that market is from being classified as gambling.

I have the feeling the list of countries that have banned Poly will only increase in the coming months.

What do you want to say here, that this is somehow different from gambling or the stock market? Both of those industries have enormous abuses on every possible level from small stock to big stock when it comes to insider information, so why not also ban those? Why treat it differently? Nobody is forcing people to place bets on these things and it should be clear to people that it often comes to human decision making.