Prediction markets legality as gambling or derivative trading platforms, & rules

[Charles-Tim]

Gambling is indeed prohibited in South Korea, but there are exceptions, such as in Russia. It's banned there too

Russia did not ban prediction market, it is prediction markets (precisely Polymarket and Kalshi) that banned Russia. These two should be differentiated. There are some countries that these two prediction markets banned which can be due to the countries being sanctioned by the United States. Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Syria, Venezuela, and Belarus are also banned.

[Oshosondy]

Prediction market news, in United States

CFTC proposes first formal prediction market rules

 The Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed its first formal rules for prediction markets on Wednesday, establishing a framework to evaluate which event contracts cross into territory Congress deemed off-limits while allowing most sports-related trading to continue.

Copied from: https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/cftc-proposes-first-formal-prediction-182856039.html

You can read about it on: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9249-26

[Perfectbaby]

Gambling is indeed prohibited in South Korea, but there are exceptions, such as in Russia. It's banned there too

Russia did not ban prediction market, it is prediction markets (precisely Polymarket and Kalshi) that banned Russia. These two should be differentiated. There are some countries that these two prediction markets banned which can be due to the countries being sanctioned by the United States. Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Syria, Venezuela, and Belarus are also banned.

I have also seen some gambling site do not operate in this country not because they don't acquired the right document, but it could be some certain limitations that is best known to them, at this point they would exclude those countries in other for them to operate without having those in that jurisdiction accessed the site.

[Agbe]

After this thread another person will still come up with another topic again. There are different topics on the prediction market and concerning the current topic of the prediction, as for me the prediction market is purely a gambling website, if prediction market is not part of gambling, UNITEHERE would not petition against them. And now UNITEHERE is saying that Prediction Market is putting their employees (jobs) at risk. Prediction market is not a derivative trading platforms but gambling platforms.

[Mhizlove]

Prediction market is not gambling neither is it trading, so those that will be going for it should be well prepared for the risk that is associated with this, I will also support the government when it comes to things like this to be banned because of the danger and risk that is there, while the process has no reliability.

Regardless of how prediction market is being classified by people,anyone that wants to participate should first of all understand the risk involved and how the platform works. Alot of people go into new trends because of the hype and they forget to fully understand what exactly they're investing their money into. Before putting or committing funds, risk awareness and proper research is very important because if no one fully understands how the system do works, it will be wise for such person to just hold back than going into it because of crowd or hype.

[YOSHIE]

Any news we see about the legality of prediction markets as gambling sites or not, we can post about it on this thread.

Overall, the Polymarket prediction site is no longer interesting to visit, as far as I know, apart from the countries you mentioned, there are several other countries that treat the same thing, some are blocked and some have local and international sanctions.

As I quoted below, the countries are blocking access to the Polymarket prediction site.

Singapore: Local authorities blocked access as required by national gambling laws.

Other Countries: Brazil and India block official Polymarket access, while Taiwan, Thailand, China and Japan impose operational restrictions in accordance with local laws.

Maybe, in the future, if the Polymarket prediction site continues to make the same prediction bets and does not comply with existing laws in certain countries, maybe Polymarket will just be a memory for gamblers.

[Fiatless]

Prediction market news, in United States

CFTC proposes first formal prediction market rules

 The Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed its first formal rules for prediction markets on Wednesday, establishing a framework to evaluate which event contracts cross into territory Congress deemed off-limits while allowing most sports-related trading to continue.

Copied from: https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/cftc-proposes-first-formal-prediction-182856039.html

You can read about it on: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9249-26

I am happy that the CFTC is coming up with regulatory rules to reduce the excesses of the prediction market. Some of the comments that interest me are

The proposal would amend CFTC Regulation 40.11, establishing a structured review process to evaluate whether contracts fall under categories the Commodity Exchange Act flags for heightened scrutiny — among them terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, and conduct that violates federal or state law — and whether listing such contracts would run contrary to the public interest, the agency said. The CFTC stopped short of an outright ban on any category of event contract, opting instead for case-by-case review.

There are some contracts that are inhuman. I find contracts on human suffering and death unacceptable. In its wisdom, CFTC will be handling these contracts on a case-by-case basis. I like that because the prediction market is not totally bad, but there should be control.

[Wakate]

Prediction market is not gambling neither is it trading, so those that will be going for it should be well prepared for the risk that is associated with this, I will also support the government when it comes to things like this to be banned because of the danger and risk that is there, while the process has no reliability.

Regardless of how prediction market is being classified by people,anyone that wants to participate should first of all understand the risk involved and how the platform works. Alot of people go into new trends because of the hype and they forget to fully understand what exactly they're investing their money into. Before putting or committing funds, risk awareness and proper research is very important because if no one fully understands how the system do works, it will be wise for such person to just hold back than going into it because of crowd or hype.

For gamblers to understand the risk they will be taking to participate in the prediction market should not be different from the risk they will be taking when gambling or trading. The risk is almost the same since it's a financial risk which means you could be losing your money you have used to place a bet at any moment in time. This kind of risk should not be new to gamblers that often gamble on casinos and the prediction market is not a different one at all.

[nimogsm]

Prediction market is not gambling neither is it trading, so those that will be going for it should be well prepared for the risk that is associated with this, I will also support the government when it comes to things like this to be banned because of the danger and risk that is there, while the process has no reliability.

Regardless of how prediction market is being classified by people,anyone that wants to participate should first of all understand the risk involved and how the platform works. Alot of people go into new trends because of the hype and they forget to fully understand what exactly they're investing their money into. Before putting or committing funds, risk awareness and proper research is very important because if no one fully understands how the system do works, it will be wise for such person to just hold back than going into it because of crowd or hype.

It's a trend right now, and betting on any event is truly a new thing in the world of gambling. The fact that there are predictions beyond comprehension or humane considerations is the responsibility of those who create them. One of the advantages of the prediction market is its anonymity and the use of cryptocurrencies, making it easy for everyone to enter. There's no doubt that this will become a serious competitor to traditional betting in the future.

[Oshosondy]

I hope you read this topic about how New Mexico government in the United States sued Kalshi: [NEWS]New Mexico filed a lawsuit against Kalshi for illegal gambling

CFTC has sued New Mexico.

The CFTC sued New Mexico, arguing federally regulated prediction markets fall under its exclusive authority and cannot be regulated as gambling by states.

The lawsuit follows New Mexico's legal action against Kalshi, which the state says is illegally offering online sports betting.

The dispute is part of a broader national battle, with the CFTC and prediction market operators fighting state and tribal efforts to regulate or restric

CFTC has been going after States that sue prediction markets that are under its regulations in the United States as we all know.

[Oshosondy]

CFTC Sues Kentucky to Block State Crackdown on Prediction Markets
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/cftc-sues-kentucky-block-state-081243979.html

I did not know when Kentucky sued Kalshi, Polymarket, and VGW earlier this June, or maybe I have forgotten about it because there are many states in United States that have sued prediction markets, and now including Kentucky. But CFTC do not just look, but sueing any states in the United States that is suing the prediction market that it is under its CFTC regulations.

[Oshosondy]

Kalshi Sports Markets Banned in Michigan as Temporary Blackout Takes Effect

A Michigan judge barred Kalshi from offering sports prediction markets in the state for 14 days.
The court said the markets could cause irreparable harm, particularly to young users, while the case proceeds.
The ruling is the latest clash in the nationwide fight over whether prediction markets offer illegal gambling.

Copied from https://decrypt.co/372454/kalshi-sports-markets-banned-michigan-temporary-blackout


Massachusetts AG files amended lawsuit against Kalshi over sports betting after court ruling

The amended complaint, granted by a judge on Tuesday, included allegations that Kalshi targeted users under 21 years old through social media and marketing on university campuses.

You read about this on https://cointelegraph.com/news/massachusetts-lawsuit-kalshi-sports-betting

[junder]

For gamblers to understand the risk they will be taking to participate in the prediction market should not be different from the risk they will be taking when gambling or trading. The risk is almost the same since it's a financial risk which means you could be losing your money you have used to place a bet at any moment in time. This kind of risk should not be new to gamblers that often gamble on casinos and the prediction market is not a different one at all.

The similarity of these two things has the same risk side, namely in terms of money. Anyone who does so has the opportunity to risk losing or losing money. Therefore, we must be smart in making decisions by considering them first, even though both of these things also have profit opportunities but it must be remembered that the opportunity to lose or lose money is greater than the opportunity to make a profit.

[Porfirii]

These are lists of countries that have banned prediction markets:

-snip-

Spain

Wow, thanks for sharing the news!

The truth is that it is the first news I have that prediction markets have been banned in my country, but I have verified the information and I have found out that a few weeks ago Consumer Rights Ministry temporarily banned Polymarket and Kalshi for operating in the country without a gambling licence.

I have mixed feelings about this decision, but it seems that it is a concern shared by many European countries.

[Zlantann]

Wow, thanks for sharing the news!

The truth is that it is the first news I have that prediction markets have been banned in my country, but I have verified the information and I have found out that a few weeks ago Consumer Rights Ministry temporarily banned Polymarket and Kalshi for operating in the country without a gambling licence.

I have mixed feelings about this decision, but it seems that it is a concern shared by many European countries.

The prediction market industry has come under intense scrutiny in recent times. Countries are beginning to see them as gambling platforms. Polymarket and others portray their services as different from gambling. But it has become clear that they are gambling; therefore, they need to have licences just as other platforms.

The recent reports of insider betting and manipulation are also a concern to most countries. This might be another reason why they want these prediction platforms to be regulated.

My country might be the next, who knows?

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

It's a trend right now, and betting on any event is truly a new thing in the world of gambling. The fact that there are predictions beyond comprehension or humane considerations is the responsibility of those who create them. One of the advantages of the prediction market is its anonymity and the use of cryptocurrencies, making it easy for everyone to enter. There's no doubt that this will become a serious competitor to traditional betting in the future.

In my opinion, It will not unless they declare themselves a gambling company and acquired the legal license to operate as a gambling site, if not, they will not stand as a competition because they have already been banned by most country and if care is not take, more country will ban them too because they portray as investment company meanwhile it's the opposite. If they change to sportbook in the future, then they will have more customers since they might then be free to operate in those country that banned them.

[Odohu]

The prediction market industry has come under intense scrutiny in recent times. Countries are beginning to see them as gambling platforms. Polymarket and others portray their services as different from gambling. But it has become clear that they are gambling; therefore, they need to have licences just as other platforms.

The recent reports of insider betting and manipulation are also a concern to most countries. This might be another reason why they want these prediction platforms to be regulated.

My country might be the next, who knows?

Your country is not going to be the next my dear, it is actually the last place gambling activities can be banned because gambling provide lots of job for the people and government makes so revenue from gambling companies. There is the National Lottery Commission that regulates gambling activities and they make a lot of revenue from registration. Although prediction market is not popular in Africa, perhaps its still a new development that many people are yet to fully understand.

[Zlantann]

Your country is not going to be the next my dear, it is actually the last place gambling activities can be banned because gambling provide lots of job for the people and government makes so revenue from gambling companies. There is the National Lottery Commission that regulates gambling activities and they make a lot of revenue from registration. Although prediction market is not popular in Africa, perhaps its still a new development that many people are yet to fully understand.

I am not really talking about banning all gambling activities but regulating prediction market platforms. Some of these prediction markets are not registered under the gambling regulatory body, nor do they have a licence from the Securities and Exchange Commission. This means traders participate without any protection from the goverment.

I also doubt if they pay taxes to the goverment of my country. The government might end up blocking their services and mandate them to register as a gambling service provider. 

[Johnlomape]

The prediction market industry has come under intense scrutiny in recent times. Countries are beginning to see them as gambling platforms. Polymarket and others portray their services as different from gambling. But it has become clear that they are gambling; therefore, they need to have licences just as other platforms.

The recent reports of insider betting and manipulation are also a concern to most countries. This might be another reason why they want these prediction platforms to be regulated.

My country might be the next, who knows?

Your country is not going to be the next my dear, it is actually the last place gambling activities can be banned because gambling provide lots of job for the people and government makes so revenue from gambling companies. There is the National Lottery Commission that regulates gambling activities and they make a lot of revenue from registration. Although prediction market is not popular in Africa, perhaps its still a new development that many people are yet to fully understand.

The government can decide to do whatever appeals them so you can not decide if the government is going to ban or not ban because it's providing jobs for people. If the rate of gambling addiction increases and it's affected by so many citizens, the senate can raise a proposal that can talk about banning gambling activities and if implemented through various supports, it will be ban and that's all.
The government has power and they can decide to flex it in a way that will cause pain to those that are gamblers and I know that a ban on gambling will not stop 70% of gamblers from accessing gambling platforms they like.