Prediction markets legality as gambling or derivative trading platforms, & rules

[SamReomo]

What will happen if these users who are bypassing the restrictions have problems with the platform? Since these platforms are banned, users cannot report any mistreatment to the goverment for investigation. It is risky to use them because he that comes with equity must come with clean hands. They can't be doing something illegal and expect the government to protect them.

Those platforms don't ask for KYC details that's why those who bypass such restrictions can still use the platforms and they might not face any issues with such use. However, I agree there's some risk involved in such approach, but the ones who avoid such restrictions willingly take risks and they don't regret if they get any issue. Surely, they won't be able to take any helpful from their authorities if they face any issues at those platforms but such people don't care much that's why they use such platforms.

[KTChampions]

Governments everywhere treat citizens as milk cattle. Naturally, they worry when a citizen takes his money not to "respected people from the local elite" but to decentralized (at least somewhat) international services. It makes me laugh when, under the guise of fighting gambling, access to various services is prohibited, but access to the same local services is allowed. Something similar is happening in your case. And as always, there are excuses about "qualified investors" and so on.

Who is at fault for this then? The one doing the treating or the one that is letting himself be treated this way? People are complacent in modernity, they will take netflix and starbucks over caring whether they have access to decentralized services or whether there is corruption. If you look at poll data many will say that they are concerned about corruption, but they never do anything against it and in most countries the same people are voting for the same corrupt parties over and over again. So I would say that the milk cattle is at fault. From the side of the predators that is those in the governments, their motivation is very clear. They want their own share from these activities that is why they usually ask for license approval or they give a local business partner the ability to do the same that they have prohibited an international company from doing. The local business partner is already giving them money as their share, the international partner will not do that from the beginning or ever if they do not want to go that way.

There is logic and some truth in what you say, but they can go too far - "it's her own fault because she wore a skirt that was too short" 
The average person simply wants to live, not be a warrior for justice or a vigilant guard fending off the constant attacks of scammers. If I were to reason, I'd say humanism has become a problem that has softened society. If corrupt officials knew that sooner or later citizens would hang them from a tree and that it would be okay, they would take fewer risks. But now, that's considered barbaric.

[Charles-Tim]

What will happen if these users who are bypassing the restrictions have problems with the platform? Since these platforms are banned, users cannot report any mistreatment to the goverment for investigation. It is risky to use them because he that comes with equity must come with clean hands. They can't be doing something illegal and expect the government to protect them.

Yes, but do you think some people care? I do not know why some people are doing it in the United States, but data shows that they are doing it, registrating with VPN. Who knows it is because of insider trading, tax evasion reason or other reasons. These kind of people know what they are doing and know what could be the consequences if the prediction market found out about it.

[Bluedrem]

Those platforms don't ask for KYC details that's why those who bypass such restrictions can still use the platforms and they might not face any issues with such use. However, I agree there's some risk involved in such approach, but the ones who avoid such restrictions willingly take risks and they don't regret if they get any issue. Surely, they won't be able to take any helpful from their authorities if they face any issues at those platforms but such people don't care much that's why they use such platforms.

Well, how can users trust casinos that do not identify users and do not provide proof of their credibility? It may also be the case that someone wins a jackpot and later is not given permission to withdraw the money, on the contrary, he is given various conditions to withdraw the money which are not possible to fulfill at all. Isn't it better to have some casinos with KYC which are much more trustworthy.
Although there may be a lot of opposition to my opinion here, this is what I think.

[Dogedegen]

There is logic and some truth in what you say, but they can go too far - "it's her own fault because she wore a skirt that was too short" 

That is an exaggeration of the principle, when applied reasonably it can never go too far but I acknowledge that you bring it up.

The average person simply wants to live, not be a warrior for justice or a vigilant guard fending off the constant attacks of scammers. If I were to reason, I'd say humanism has become a problem that has softened society. If corrupt officials knew that sooner or later citizens would hang them from a tree and that it would be okay, they would take fewer risks. But now, that's considered barbaric.

Is this a good point? People want to live in a democracy but not participate in it and hope that it is being run by some sort of saints or angels? If you want democracy to work, you must participate in every possible part of it. You must be critical, analytic and always check what you believe and who you believe. If you think about it, the reason why so many corrupt parties are ruling could be traced back to the people who are just wanting to live without doing something about anything that is bad in the world. I've looked at election data in many places and many people vote the same parties even if they are caught in endless corruption scandals.

Those platforms don't ask for KYC details that's why those who bypass such restrictions can still use the platforms and they might not face any issues with such use. However, I agree there's some risk involved in such approach, but the ones who avoid such restrictions willingly take risks and they don't regret if they get any issue. Surely, they won't be able to take any helpful from their authorities if they face any issues at those platforms but such people don't care much that's why they use such platforms.

I don't agree with this at all, it only applies to a small percentage of the people that do this. We have seen with cases brought up against casinos that many times players are caught doing something wrong and when consequences come to strike them, they try to play innocent and blame the casino. This is not the case of someone who accepts responsibility for what happens next! When it comes to prediction markets, with the many recent bans and that I expect more people will be risking themselves. If you think about it, these bans don't do anything at all but increase the risk for the people that want to access it. Now they will access it using a VPN from a forbidden region and lose all previous protections that they could have in case there is an issue.

[Smartprofit]

I remember listening to a YouTube podcast in which the author explained that the Roman Empire, ideologically speaking, never disappeared. All states, to one degree or another, replicate its legal structure. Every state has patricians (people with full rights), plebeians (ordinary citizens with limited rights), and slaves (people without rights, such as soldiers or prisoners). Of these three categories, only the first can strictly be considered human. The last two are not even legally human. 🤷

This theory explains why there are no stateless people in the world. People are assigned to a specific territory for the purpose of paying taxes and performing other duties, and upon fulfilling certain conditions, they become complete slaves. If you become a citizen of another country, you must swear an oath!  Note, not signing a treaty (as is customary between free people), but taking an oath...

This is precisely why states strive to completely regulate every aspect of their citizens' lives (free people aren't treated this way, but slaves are). Slaves require complete control.

Therefore, I cannot condemn those who use VPNs to play online casinos. They are simply trying not to be slaves. The right to privacy is one of the fundamental natural rights of every human being. People are born with free will, and in particular, with the right to gamble. If a casino blocks a player's money simply because they have an "incorrect" IP address, that's robbery. And that's exactly how it should be treated.💁

[acroman08]

Not sure if you guys know, but Kalshi was banned in Nevada a few months ago(I remember reading a thread about it here in the forum, but I couldn't find it). There's an update about it.

Apparently, Kalshi agreed to a deal with Nevada to use a 3rd party software to keep Nevada residents from accessing the prediction markets for sports, entertainment and elections on Kalshi, and if they fail to comply with this new deal with Nevada before the deadline ends, they will be fined $120,000 per day.

Now, this makes me wonder if Kalshi will make the same deal with every state that has banned/blocked them, so they could operate inside those states.

There are more details in the article, but I feel like this is highlight of it.
https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/178764/kalshi-third-party-geolocation-to-keep-sports-markets-out-of-nevada

[ZeroVinsonN]

I see Polymarket and Kalshi as indeed gambling markets masquerading as derivatives trading platforms. In reality, this is hardly much different from gambling, is it? To be honest, these platforms have managed to outsmart regulation. No wonder some countries prefer to classify them as gambling centers because there are only two options where you will experience 2 conditions of losing or winning the money wagered or predicted.
 

At least people are finally beginning to see the disguise for what it really is, prediction markets are even worse that casinos in some sense, at least I won't enter a casino and see betting opportunities on the pains of others which is exactly what we see in a lot of prediction market, it's only a matter of time people right activists start protesting against them if they haven't already started doing that.

[BIT-BENDER]

I see Polymarket and Kalshi as indeed gambling markets masquerading as derivatives trading platforms. In reality, this is hardly much different from gambling, is it? To be honest, these platforms have managed to outsmart regulation. No wonder some countries prefer to classify them as gambling centers because there are only two options where you will experience 2 conditions of losing or winning the money wagered or predicted.
 

At least people are finally beginning to see the disguise for what it really is, prediction markets are even worse that casinos in some sense, at least I won't enter a casino and see betting opportunities on the pains of others which is exactly what we see in slot of prediction market, it's only a matter of time people right activists start protesting against them if they haven't already started doing that.

Since the slot is easily mistaked for its gambling reference, I think it is wise to make a correction, you properly meant a lot instead of slot.
And I think if right activists decides to protest then I won't be surprised to see happenings from the protest event added to the prediction market sites.
There is absolutely nothing that can't be added to the prediction market, even the weirdest of things.

[ZeroVinsonN]

I see Polymarket and Kalshi as indeed gambling markets masquerading as derivatives trading platforms. In reality, this is hardly much different from gambling, is it? To be honest, these platforms have managed to outsmart regulation. No wonder some countries prefer to classify them as gambling centers because there are only two options where you will experience 2 conditions of losing or winning the money wagered or predicted.
 

At least people are finally beginning to see the disguise for what it really is, prediction markets are even worse that casinos in some sense, at least I won't enter a casino and see betting opportunities on the pains of others which is exactly what we see in slot of prediction market, it's only a matter of time people right activists start protesting against them if they haven't already started doing that.

Since the slot is easily mistaked for its gambling reference, I think it is wise to make a correction, you properly meant a lot instead of slot.
And I think if right activists decides to protest then I won't be surprised to see happenings from the protest event added to the prediction market sites.
There is absolutely nothing that can't be added to the prediction market, even the weirdest of things.

It was supposed to be a lot instead of slot but it seems my autocorrect changed it without my notice.
My problem with prediction markets is how unhinged they can be, that aside I probably won't have had any problems with them it they didn't allow pretty much any kind of prediction to happen on their platform and then try to disguise it something other that what it really is which is gambling it's purest form, soon enough we will be hearing information about addiction cases related to prediction markets.

[AmoreJaz]

At least people are finally beginning to see the disguise for what it really is, prediction markets are even worse that casinos in some sense, at least I won't enter a casino and see betting opportunities on the pains of others which is exactly what we see in slot of prediction market, it's only a matter of time people right activists start protesting against them if they haven't already started doing that.

Since the slot is easily mistaked for its gambling reference, I think it is wise to make a correction, you properly meant a lot instead of slot.
And I think if right activists decides to protest then I won't be surprised to see happenings from the protest event added to the prediction market sites.
There is absolutely nothing that can't be added to the prediction market, even the weirdest of things.

Prediction markets can basically put any betting line they deemed will attract bettors. Of course, if they are seeing potential market, they will surely add it. After all, they are running a business and not charity. But should at least check the ethics involved as it will have an impact about their reputation.

Just look at polymarket or futuur - few of those prediction markets that accept crypto. And you will see long list of betting lines at various categories. There are some of those betting lines that can actually offend some countries or leaders. Remember the war between Russia - Ukraine, there were some controversial betting lines that were included in the list of polymarket before because they were talking about the life of Putin. So is it really okay to bet on the life of a leader and how long he will last? I don't think so.

[Frankolala]

At least people are finally beginning to see the disguise for what it really is, prediction markets are even worse that casinos in some sense, at least I won't enter a casino and see betting opportunities on the pains of others which is exactly what we see in slot of prediction market, it's only a matter of time people right activists start protesting against them if they haven't already started doing that.

Since the slot is easily mistaked for its gambling reference, I think it is wise to make a correction, you properly meant a lot instead of slot.
And I think if right activists decides to protest then I won't be surprised to see happenings from the protest event added to the prediction market sites.
There is absolutely nothing that can't be added to the prediction market, even the weirdest of things.

Prediction markets can basically put any betting line they deemed will attract bettors. Of course, if they are seeing potential market, they will surely add it. After all, they are running a business and not charity. But should at least check the ethics involved as it will have an impact about their reputation.

Prediction market is currently, trending because they have a lot of bet options and events. This last world cup fetched them a good amount of money because majority of people that used it to bet on the games. placing bet on an unethical events should be discouraged to avoid critics. I haven't tried using it, though.

[Odusko]

What will happen if these users who are bypassing the restrictions have problems with the platform? Since these platforms are banned, users cannot report any mistreatment to the goverment for investigation. It is risky to use them because he that comes with equity must come with clean hands. They can't be doing something illegal and expect the government to protect them.

Yes, but do you think some people care? I do not know why some people are doing it in the United States, but data shows that they are doing it, registrating with VPN. Who knows it is because of insider trading, tax evasion reason or other reasons. These kind of people know what they are doing and know what could be the consequences if the prediction market found out about it.

Those bypassing regional restrictions to gamble on platforms that are legally banned in their jurisdiction knows exactly what they are doing and are playing along with they own game plans, they deposit Small amounts of money and keep on withdrawals of minimal amount that can not exceed the limit of whatever can trigger questioning from the platform because if their account ever get problems it means their money in the balance will be gone forever they have no way to retify any issues since on the platform they are treated as a guest and not actual customer.

[Dogedegen]

I remember listening to a YouTube podcast in which the author explained that the Roman Empire, ideologically speaking, never disappeared. All states, to one degree or another, replicate its legal structure. Every state has patricians (people with full rights), plebeians (ordinary citizens with limited rights), and slaves (people without rights, such as soldiers or prisoners). Of these three categories, only the first can strictly be considered human. The last two are not even legally human. 🤷

This theory explains why there are no stateless people in the world. People are assigned to a specific territory for the purpose of paying taxes and performing other duties, and upon fulfilling certain conditions, they become complete slaves. If you become a citizen of another country, you must swear an oath!  Note, not signing a treaty (as is customary between free people), but taking an oath...

This is precisely why states strive to completely regulate every aspect of their citizens' lives (free people aren't treated this way, but slaves are). Slaves require complete control.

Therefore, I cannot condemn those who use VPNs to play online casinos. They are simply trying not to be slaves. The right to privacy is one of the fundamental natural rights of every human being. People are born with free will, and in particular, with the right to gamble. If a casino blocks a player's money simply because they have an "incorrect" IP address, that's robbery. And that's exactly how it should be treated.💁

In my view your post mixes different ideas together that should be discussed and viewed separately. People definitely need to have some rights, such as a reasonable expectation of privacy and there have been attempts to weaken this a lot in recent history. That would be a principle that should be defended. But when you bring up slavery, you need to be careful. Laws that restrict certain behaviors are not always slavery, some could be seen as that but others not. There are many reasons to impose rules, some are going to be very good and others are going to be very bad. We can debate this individually, but we should not group it all as enslavement. Let me us the example of gambling and privacy, gambling is not really a purely private activity. If you engage in gambling you can destroy your own family or even related families, in some cases people even destroy the lives of their children or commit other crimes as a result of gambling. This is the reason why it is restricted, because it leads to violations towards others and a negative outcome. It is not that they just want you to stop gambling because they don't like it personally, nobody normal will care about some topic like that.

Not sure if you guys know, but Kalshi was banned in Nevada a few months ago(I remember reading a thread about it here in the forum, but I couldn't find it). There's an update about it.

Apparently, Kalshi agreed to a deal with Nevada to use a 3rd party software to keep Nevada residents from accessing the prediction markets for sports, entertainment and elections on Kalshi, and if they fail to comply with this new deal with Nevada before the deadline ends, they will be fined $120,000 per day.

Now, this makes me wonder if Kalshi will make the same deal with every state that has banned/blocked them, so they could operate inside those states.

There are more details in the article, but I feel like this is highlight of it.
https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/178764/kalshi-third-party-geolocation-to-keep-sports-markets-out-of-nevada

That is an interesting way to go about it, and it seems like a good solution for both parties. I mean they don't have to make the exact same deal, it is going to depend on the specific gambling laws of each state or country and what they must do to appease the regulator over there. It is always to make a deal with proper compliance for both parties than it is to ban innovative products because you don't like them for some reason. It might be a bit annoying and costly for the side of Kalshi to enforce this all the time, but it is probably better than completely losing a market depending on how many customers they have in a particular state.

[Porfirii]

Wow, thanks for sharing the news!

The truth is that it is the first news I have that prediction markets have been banned in my country, but I have verified the information and I have found out that a few weeks ago Consumer Rights Ministry temporarily banned Polymarket and Kalshi for operating in the country without a gambling licence.

I have mixed feelings about this decision, but it seems that it is a concern shared by many European countries.

-snip/

The recent reports of insider betting and manipulation are also a concern to most countries. This might be another reason why they want these prediction platforms to be regulated.

My country might be the next, who knows?

Hey Zlantann, I didn't read your prior answer until now. I'm wondering, how would it affect you if prediction markets were banned in your country overnight? In my case it hasn't affected me in any ways, but I'm curious about the adoption of these platforms by other members of the community.

[lombok]

At least people are finally beginning to see the disguise for what it really is, prediction markets are even worse that casinos in some sense, at least I won't enter a casino and see betting opportunities on the pains of others which is exactly what we see in slot of prediction market, it's only a matter of time people right activists start protesting against them if they haven't already started doing that.

Since the slot is easily mistaked for its gambling reference, I think it is wise to make a correction, you properly meant a lot instead of slot.
And I think if right activists decides to protest then I won't be surprised to see happenings from the protest event added to the prediction market sites.
There is absolutely nothing that can't be added to the prediction market, even the weirdest of things.

Prediction markets can basically put any betting line they deemed will attract bettors. Of course, if they are seeing potential market, they will surely add it. After all, they are running a business and not charity. But should at least check the ethics involved as it will have an impact about their reputation.

Prediction market is currently, trending because they have a lot of bet options and events. This last world cup fetched them a good amount of money because majority of people that used it to bet on the games. placing bet on an unethical events should be discouraged to avoid critics. I haven't tried using it, though.

Betting sites might be willing to make a lot of money out of your hobby or by your friends but they should not be left to make things uneven in the form of games. Good manners and rules are very important in keeping the reputation of his or her business in high degree because a negative reputation could ruin their business within a wink of an eye.

[Oshosondy]

This has let us know that the CFTC and the prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are winning the war they are having with the States in United States.

Federal judge blocks Minnesota's ban on prediction markets, citing federal law preemption

A federal judge in Minneapolis has issued a preliminary injunction preventing Minnesota from enforcing a new law that would ban prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. The judge ruled that federal law likely overrides the state law, which criminalized operating or promoting these markets.

https://pluang.com/en/news-feed/hakim-blokir-larangan-pasar-prediksi-minnesota

[Dogedegen]

This has let us know that the CFTC and the prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are winning the war they are having with the States in United States.

Federal judge blocks Minnesota's ban on prediction markets, citing federal law preemption

A federal judge in Minneapolis has issued a preliminary injunction preventing Minnesota from enforcing a new law that would ban prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. The judge ruled that federal law likely overrides the state law, which criminalized operating or promoting these markets.

https://pluang.com/en/news-feed/hakim-blokir-larangan-pasar-prediksi-minnesota

I would not be too quick to make conclusions about this. The case that you present has nothing to do with the battle of whether these platforms are gambling or not and who regulates it, that is a very long case that will probably end with the supreme court. What you present here is a preliminary injunction, that is not a final judgement. This means that the court is saying that the state should be temporarily blocked from enforcing this law until the big case is being handled. They usually grant such an injunction if the party can show that they have a chance to win the case, but since we know that this is a very disputed and big battle with both sides having some good points this is to be expected. The injunction does not mean that the federal government and CFTC will win!

Now you need to remember what is actually happening here and what would be a federal preemption. The prediction market companies claim that they are regulated through the CEA act which gives the authority to CTFC. Since they have been consistent about this and have good point, the court had a high chance to make a preliminary injunction in their favor and it did. Think about it in more simple terms, it is like telling the state you need to pause until the big case is resolved clearly in somebody's favor you can't just do whatever you want until that is resolved.

You need to understand these details because you will otherwise mislead yourself with what an injunction is. You may think that if they win the injunction that this means that prediction markets are not gambling, it does not mean that at all. Also there are some more differences and details between the positions of Kalshi and Polymarket, but I think this is enough to understand. We really need to be patient and see how the big case goes. So in the end remember that this injunction does not mean they are winning at all, it is just normal litigation proceedings in cases where the federal and state governments are trying to decide competency over something.

[henmark]

This has let us know that the CFTC and the prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are winning the war they are having with the States in United States.

Federal judge blocks Minnesota's ban on prediction markets, citing federal law preemption

A federal judge in Minneapolis has issued a preliminary injunction preventing Minnesota from enforcing a new law that would ban prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. The judge ruled that federal law likely overrides the state law, which criminalized operating or promoting these markets.

https://pluang.com/en/news-feed/hakim-blokir-larangan-pasar-prediksi-minnesota

This is good news for them, however it is not the end for them yet. I would assume that the only reason why this was lifted was that federally they are allowed, and as we all know federal law is above the state law, hell they had a whole war about it lol. So I am sure that it is fine for now, and nothing that comes from any state will matter.

What they need to fight would be against the federal government, as long as federally they are fine, then they will be fine. If federally it gets grey, then it will be a big danger for them. This may sound wired to other country people but in my opinion, when you are ruled by 2 different parties and both may try to bring you the best and practical ones compared to a situation when same party in rule in both state and federal.

[Nathrixxx]

Personally I wouldn't accept prediction market as gambling and at the same time I will not see it as a legitimate trading, we should know that everything that has to do with prediction market goes along with the strong hands, it is mostly politically motivated and those that have inner clew about the state of affairs, I don't expect for any responsible Gambler to begin to consider for it than gambling.