Prediction markets legality as gambling or derivative trading platforms, & rules

[Perfectbaby]

Personally I wouldn't accept prediction market as gambling and at the same time I will not see it as a legitimate trading, we should know that everything that has to do with prediction market goes along with the strong hands, it is mostly politically motivated and those that have inner clew about the state of affairs, I don't expect for any responsible Gambler to begin to consider for it than gambling.

People are different so is there thought also different as well, whomever that takes predictions market as trading platform is actually doing a big mistakes because as the name implies "predictions market" which absolutely works with the results becoming unknown. And whatever thing you do that you are not sure of the outcome or the results can always be considered gambling platforms.

[Haunebu]

I don't really see the point of this thread to be honest with y'all. If governments ban gambling sites or gambling in general, people will find a way to access them and play one way or another. Heck, many of the government officials themselves access them to play.

For example, I know some people having a blast gambling on Polymarket even though their governments banned it. A proper VPN or even changing DNS does the trick usually. However, if the gambling sites themselves ban certain countries, that's a different story.

[Cryptomultiplier]

I don't really see the point of this thread to be honest with y'all. If governments ban gambling sites or gambling in general, people will find a way to access them and play one way or another. Heck, many of the government officials themselves access them to play.

For example, I know some people having a blast gambling on Polymarket even though their governments banned it. A proper VPN or even changing DNS does the trick usually. However, if the gambling sites themselves ban certain countries, that's a different story.

You are right.
I also in addition think all these legal hurdles the predictions market is currently facing is just to make them sure and be differentiated from gambling sites, because at the end of the day, am seeing the predictions market operating under their own regulations that's separate and distinct from gambling activities and their operations, even though we know they too are a bit of gambling but claim to be derivatives trading platforms.

[Hispo]

I don't really see the point of this thread to be honest with y'all. If governments ban gambling sites or gambling in general, people will find a way to access them and play one way or another. Heck, many of the government officials themselves access them to play.

For example, I know some people having a blast gambling on Polymarket even though their governments banned it. A proper VPN or even changing DNS does the trick usually. However, if the gambling sites themselves ban certain countries, that's a different story.

If you think about it, Polymarket seemingly has made no move when comes to try to limit their services in some territories in which regulation may not be clear when comes to betting websites like theirs, because in the end of the day they want as much volume as possible in order to grow their business.
If they were a regular regulated casino, they would have a license which would push them to ban their services from being accessed from several countries.
They are pretty much in a grey area which works in their favor.

[Oshosondy]

This has let us know that the CFTC and the prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are winning the war they are having with the States in United States.

Federal judge blocks Minnesota's ban on prediction markets, citing federal law preemption

A federal judge in Minneapolis has issued a preliminary injunction preventing Minnesota from enforcing a new law that would ban prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. The judge ruled that federal law likely overrides the state law, which criminalized operating or promoting these markets.

https://pluang.com/en/news-feed/hakim-blokir-larangan-pasar-prediksi-minnesota

I would not be too quick to make conclusions about this. The case that you present has nothing to do with the battle of whether these platforms are gambling or not and who regulates it, that is a very long case that will probably end with the supreme court. What you present here is a preliminary injunction, that is not a final judgement. This means that the court is saying that the state should be temporarily blocked from enforcing this law until the big case is being handled. They usually grant such an injunction if the party can show that they have a chance to win the case, but since we know that this is a very disputed and big battle with both sides having some good points this is to be expected. The injunction does not mean that the federal government and CFTC will win!

I said the prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are winning the war between them and the states in the United States, that is different from they have finally won the war.

But for now at least the ban that Minnesota placed on the prediction markets was blocked by a federal judge in court which will make people in Minnesota to continue using the prediction markets.

You have not seen a situation where the federal judge will favour the state until the supreme court judgement?

If someone is winning, that does not guarantee that he will be the final winner.

[acroman08]

Looks like South African Sportsbooks are targeting Prediction Markets, saying that prediction markets should fall under the country's gambling law, and claiming that the platforms are operating in the country without a proper license(unregulated).

If this gets pushed through and South Africa's regulators take this seriously, South Africa might be another country that ban/blocks Prediction markets due to illegal gambling operations.

https://focusgn.com/africa/south-african-bookmakers-call-for-polymarket-style-prediction-markets-to-fall-under-gambling-laws

[sompitonov]

Looks like South African Sportsbooks are targeting Prediction Markets, saying that prediction markets should fall under the country's gambling law, and claiming that the platforms are operating in the country without a proper license(unregulated).

If this gets pushed through and South Africa's regulators take this seriously, South Africa might be another country that ban/blocks Prediction markets due to illegal gambling operations.

https://focusgn.com/africa/south-african-bookmakers-call-for-polymarket-style-prediction-markets-to-fall-under-gambling-laws

I think prediction markets are subject to these laws because they are very similar, and sometimes even identical. For example, even the Polymarket has a section for sports betting. Or, in this case, prediction markets need to clearly separate gambling activities, such as sports, from betting on geopolitical events. Of course, prediction markets have exploited the uncertainty in many countries and profited from it, but over time, laws will be refined, and in some places, tax rates and other changes will be needed to prevent players and such platforms from using tricks.

[Orpichukwu]

People are different so is there thought also different as well, whomever that takes predictions market as trading platform is actually doing a big mistakes because as the name implies "predictions market" which absolutely works with the results becoming unknown. And whatever thing you do that you are not sure of the outcome or the results can always be considered gambling platforms.

But the same way, the results of predicting the market are unknown until it’s decided. The same thing happens in trading, so what’s the difference? You are risking your money on something whose result is based on probability.

Taking insider information aside, there is no way to determine if what you stake on will be the same way you predicted it. It's the same thing with trading: you read charts, look at news and happenings and make your trade based on what you come up with, but the market can still go against your predictions, so both share equal risk, and I don’t see it as wrong for someone to see it as trading; it all depends on how the person defines trading.

[348Judah]

Looks like South African Sportsbooks are targeting Prediction Markets, saying that prediction markets should fall under the country's gambling law, and claiming that the platforms are operating in the country without a proper license(unregulated).

If this gets pushed through and South Africa's regulators take this seriously, South Africa might be another country that ban/blocks Prediction markets due to illegal gambling operations.

https://focusgn.com/africa/south-african-bookmakers-call-for-polymarket-style-prediction-markets-to-fall-under-gambling-laws

At first is that they don't have to take the approach of saying prediction market as gambling,and that is why it may not go well with every decision they may be taking now because it is going to affect gambling activities as long as prediction is also seen as one, I don't know how they are regulators will be making decisions in this manner by the way of combining the two together when the actually stand to be different from each other, before I do support South Africa in many of their decisions but not quite long discovered that they are not mostly considerable in some of their judgments and conclusions being made.

[Fiatless]

Looks like South African Sportsbooks are targeting Prediction Markets, saying that prediction markets should fall under the country's gambling law, and claiming that the platforms are operating in the country without a proper license(unregulated).

If this gets pushed through and South Africa's regulators take this seriously, South Africa might be another country that ban/blocks Prediction markets due to illegal gambling operations.

https://focusgn.com/africa/south-african-bookmakers-call-for-polymarket-style-prediction-markets-to-fall-under-gambling-laws

The days of hiding under names like prediction forecasting” or “information markets " is finally coming to an end. And Polymarket and Kashi know that they will face the fiercest opposition in the future. They are now using court injunctions to stop regulators from classifying them as a gambling platform. But it is wrong to operate in a country, make a profit, and not want to register and pay the necessary taxes.

Referencing the list in the OP, South Africa is the first country in Africa to push for the regulation of prediction markets. It means other African countries will follow suit. So Polymarket and Kashi should enjoy the ride while it lasts.

[Haunebu]

Looks like South African Sportsbooks are targeting Prediction Markets, saying that prediction markets should fall under the country's gambling law, and claiming that the platforms are operating in the country without a proper license(unregulated).

If this gets pushed through and South Africa's regulators take this seriously, South Africa might be another country that ban/blocks Prediction markets due to illegal gambling operations.

https://focusgn.com/africa/south-african-bookmakers-call-for-polymarket-style-prediction-markets-to-fall-under-gambling-laws

As I mentioned in my previous post, this ain't really a big deal unless the sites themselves block their country. South Africans generally tend to depend on gambling as a way to survive which is crazy to think about, but that's how desperate many of them are.

This is why their government stepping in and trying to ban prediction markets etc is understandable, but it's pretty much pointless at the end of the day just like in other countries.

[Dogedegen]

I would not be too quick to make conclusions about this. The case that you present has nothing to do with the battle of whether these platforms are gambling or not and who regulates it, that is a very long case that will probably end with the supreme court. What you present here is a preliminary injunction, that is not a final judgement. This means that the court is saying that the state should be temporarily blocked from enforcing this law until the big case is being handled. They usually grant such an injunction if the party can show that they have a chance to win the case, but since we know that this is a very disputed and big battle with both sides having some good points this is to be expected. The injunction does not mean that the federal government and CFTC will win!

I said the prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are winning the war between them and the states in the United States, that is different from they have finally won the war.

But for now at least the ban that Minnesota placed on the prediction markets was blocked by a federal judge in court which will make people in Minnesota to continue using the prediction markets.

You have not seen a situation where the federal judge will favour the state until the supreme court judgement?

If someone is winning, that does not guarantee that he will be the final winner.

Following the normal legal rules is not winning, this ruling has nothing to do with the big battle. I was trying to explain that and you just ignored all the legal talk that I gave you and just repeated your incorrect position. Please don't be like that, many users here write wrongs things when there is no need to do that. This update has nothing to do with the case that will decide if prediction websites are gambling or trading instruments.

Again here I go.. a preliminary injunction is not a judgement that either Kalshi and Polymarket or the CTFC are correct. It is a temporary order that keeps the things as they are until the case is resolved, and it is not unusual for this injunction to be given even when the side eventually loses the case. This is why I wrote that this has nothing to do about winning the war, it only confirms that the state can not enforce a ban while the case is going on. These are two separate questions that are not related at all, just because they involve a state and Kalshi that does not make them related. If the big case resolves in favor of the state, then this injunction is reversed and it had no impact on the case. The same can be said for CFTC, if it wins it will be because they had the right legal arguments and not because they obtained a temporary relief like an injunction. This ruling only means that the legal fight continues, nothing else and no winning of any kind.

If you want to talk about some side winning, you have to look at the arguments and progress of the actual court case not if there are injunctions being granted.

[Dunamisx]

The government should take any action against every form of illegal platform operating as a prediction market, but this would have been easier to achieve if prediction markets were not also politically influenced. I don't know about Brazil and their approach to prediction markets, but any decision a country makes regarding such shouldn't be associated with gambling because they are entirely different from each other.

[leea-1334]

If someone is winning, that does not guarantee that he will be the final winner.

And in this case,,, I almost guarantee that even with a 'final' winner, there can be appeals and reappeals, and recasings, overturning previous rulings. Then it goes to Supreme Court.

This can be a final winner but as we all know with US law, there can even be changes to Constitution or pass new laws or simply change the Supreme Court, this has all happened in the past to just allow anything at all. This is the power of 'democracy' in USA

Not likely but with USA I know nothing can be ruled out.

[tiCeR]

...

Some countries are reviewing if prediction market should be banned or not.
One of the countries is:
South Korea

Know that some of these countries like Indonesia and South Korea banned gambling. Prediction market operators see prediction markets as platforms where derivatives are traded, but some countries see them as gambling sites.

Any country that you know that I have not mentioned that banned prediction markets, you can post about it.

Any news we see about the legality of prediction markets as gambling sites or not, we can post about it on this thread.

What does a ban even mean? As long as they don't shut down the Internet, there will be accessible online prediction markets that the government can't do anything about. Essentially every country in the world has banned the dark net, but it is still there. The only impact I can imagine such a ban has is that those prediction markets illegally operating in a country, will have worse liquidity depth and a lesser number of markets, but in general they will continue to exist. If the main goal is to reduce mainstream participation, then yes, but if the goal is to shut down those markets entirely, no chance.

Actually the bigger problem would be fully decentralized prediction markets. There is really nothing that can be done to effectively shut those markets down if they operate with smart contracts. They could fine or sue domestic developers, but I would guess that they would do everything they can to hide their identities in that case.

[Davidvictorson]

The government should take any action against every form of illegal platform operating as a prediction market, but this would have been easier to achieve if prediction markets were not also politically influenced. I don't know about Brazil and their approach to prediction markets, but any decision a country makes regarding such shouldn't be associated with gambling because they are entirely different from each other.

Watching some of the World Cup matches and see the adverts from a particular prediction market being displayed has made me to conclude that these ban on prediction are likely going to be temporary. It may sound like there is no correlation but I mean that they are going strong and gain global acceptance from huge organizations like FIFA. Who knows, maybe in the future they will lobby these countries to unban them.

[Dogedegen]

If someone is winning, that does not guarantee that he will be the final winner.

And in this case,,, I almost guarantee that even with a 'final' winner, there can be appeals and reappeals, and recasings, overturning previous rulings. Then it goes to Supreme Court.

This can be a final winner but as we all know with US law, there can even be changes to Constitution or pass new laws or simply change the Supreme Court, this has all happened in the past to just allow anything at all. This is the power of 'democracy' in USA

Not likely but with USA I know nothing can be ruled out.

What you describe for the USA can happen in any country that you think can happen, so merely talking about possibilities that are not realistic does not contribute anything to this discussion. When we talk about the final winner, we talk about the decision by the Supreme Court which means the final decision once it can no longer be appealed. Talking about intermediary decisions is not really useful in this case because both have good arguments for the case that is being handled, so one judge on some court might rule in one way and another in another.

To get back to your crazy claims, the last constitutional change was done in 1992 for a proposal that was being waited on for over 200 years. There has not been a successful court packing in modern history, so also the claim is just absurd that there would be something done with the supreme court. This is the outcome of getting your information from misinformation sources, and you believe in some fantasies about the USA that are not true. The possibility exists that this can be done as it is true for all countries, the chance that it will be done over this issue is exactly zero percent. Here is a source about the constitution so it is a good time to stop making up stuff. https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-seventh_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

As of 2024, the Twenty-seventh amendment is the last amendment that has been added to the Constitution. It took longer for the states to ratify this amendment than any other in history. The 1st United States Congress sent the suggested amendment to the states for their approval on September 25, 1789. It was not until May 7, 1992, that enough states ratified the amendment for it to be added to the Constitution. The ratification process had taken 202 years, 7 months, and 12 days – the longest in United States history.

[leea-1334]

What you describe for the USA can happen in any country that you think can happen, so merely talking about possibilities that are not realistic does not contribute anything to this discussion. When we talk about the final winner, we talk about the decision by the Supreme Court which means the final decision once it can no longer be appealed. Talking about intermediary decisions is not really useful in this case because both have good arguments for the case that is being handled, so one judge on some court might rule in one way and another in another.

To get back to your crazy claims, the last constitutional change was done in 1992 for a proposal that was being waited on for over 200 years. There has not been a successful court packing in modern history, so also the claim is just absurd that there would be something done with the supreme court. This is the outcome of getting your information from misinformation sources, and you believe in some fantasies about the USA that are not true. The possibility exists that this can be done as it is true for all countries, the chance that it will be done over this issue is exactly zero percent. Here is a source about the constitution so it is a good time to stop making up stuff. https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-seventh_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

I said it was unlikely, so I am not the one fantasising, just saying that this day and age,,, and with the current President in charge, some completely unusual things that did not happen in modern US history happened. Not sure why you have to read a mention about the possibility of things as something made up,,, that is on you

There is a reason I singled out USA as the one thing I will not rule anything out. So much has happened in just the past 10 years that I still remember with disbelief.

Trump NFTs? Banning Muslims from entering the country? I mean did I ever expect the world's most famous democracy to ever do such things they are doing right now? No. You want to talk about crazy claims? 1992 constitutional change broke 200 year old record? Trump broke an even older record by being the first ever president to get convicted of crimes sorry I do not know the official wording. If you asked me would such a thing ever happen in the USA? I would say no never. I was wrong.

We disagree about 1 thing here, You say zero per cent, I say non-zero percent.

Just because we disagree does not mean we have to call each other fantasists,,, what happened to polite debate online people are so courageous on a keyboard.

And since you provide a link from 1992, let me show you one example of Supreme Court ruling that was overturned in 2022,,, by the Supreme Court. An example of something I just said was so unlikely and yet happened. From your same source of wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women%27s_Health_Organization

There is not an absolute word on a 'final winner', friend. Not when there is a non-zero chance of something like this to happen.

[Supreme Donvic]

I don't really see the point of this thread to be honest with y'all. If governments ban gambling sites or gambling in general, people will find a way to access them and play one way or another. Heck, many of the government officials themselves access them to play.

For example, I know some people having a blast gambling on Polymarket even though their governments banned it. A proper VPN or even changing DNS does the trick usually. However, if the gambling sites themselves ban certain countries, that's a different story.

You are right, if government should ban a particular gambling site or ban gambling in general that those not mean that the citizens will not find a way to gamble, there have been cases of countries that banned gambling but their citizens are still finding a way to gamble, so it is very possible for a country to ban gambling in general but the citizens are still gambling, it is totally impossible for government to succeed in banning gambling in general and there citizens stop gambling I don't think is totally possible especially when they love gambling.

[Oshosondy]

New York sues Kalshi over alleged illegal gambling operation

New York has sued prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging it operates an illegal, unlicensed gambling business by offering event contracts on sports, elections and other outcomes.

The lawsuit seeks to stop Kalshi’s alleged illegal gambling operation in the state, require the company to forfeit illegal gains, pay restitution to users and pay civil penalties equal to three times those gains.

The lawsuit adds to a growing clash between New York and the CFTC over whether federally regulated prediction markets are subject to state gambling laws.

Copied from https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-york-sues-kalshi-gambling-operation


New York AG Seeks $36B From Kalshi Over 'Illegal Gambling'
https://decrypt.co/374775/new-york-ag-seeks-36b-from-kalshi-over-illegal-gambling