Prediction markets legality as gambling or derivative trading platforms, & rules

[angrybirdy]

Personally I wouldn't accept prediction market as gambling and at the same time I will not see it as a legitimate trading, we should know that everything that has to do with prediction market goes along with the strong hands, it is mostly politically motivated and those that have inner clew about the state of affairs, I don't expect for any responsible Gambler to begin to consider for it than gambling.

People are different so is there thought also different as well, whomever that takes predictions market as trading platform is actually doing a big mistakes because as the name implies "predictions market" which absolutely works with the results becoming unknown. And whatever thing you do that you are not sure of the outcome or the results can always be considered gambling platforms.

I get it where you're coming from mate, but I dont think just because something is uncertain means it is related to gambling...having that kind of logic will sound like you're saying that stock trading would also be considered as gambling since no one knows the outcome. To me, predicting a market depends more on research and understanding different informations ... Some people may treat them like a gambling, but that doesn't mean its true. I really think that It depends on how someone uses it. If they're just placing their money around and hoping to get win and being lucky, then yeah, it's basically gambling. But if they're taking time to understand the situation before making a prediction and good judgement, then I wouldn't put it in the same category.

[Merit.s]

I get it where you're coming from mate, but I dont think just because something is uncertain means it is related to gambling...having that kind of logic will sound like you're saying that stock trading would also be considered as gambling since no one knows the outcome. To me, predicting a market depends more on research and understanding different informations ... Some people may treat them like a gambling, but that doesn't mean its true. I really think that It depends on how someone uses it. If they're just placing their money around and hoping to get win and being lucky, then yeah, it's basically gambling. But if they're taking time to understand the situation before making a prediction and good judgement, then I wouldn't put it in the same category.

You can call prediction market whatever, you want but to me it's gambling because money is at stake and it's either you lose your money or make profit and that's what gambling is all about. It doesn't matter the event that is used for staking to make it possible.

Will you say that betting on matches isn't gambling then why do will have it also in prediction market if it's not similar to gambling.

[Dogedegen]

I get it where you're coming from mate, but I dont think just because something is uncertain means it is related to gambling...having that kind of logic will sound like you're saying that stock trading would also be considered as gambling since no one knows the outcome. To me, predicting a market depends more on research and understanding different informations ... Some people may treat them like a gambling, but that doesn't mean its true. I really think that It depends on how someone uses it. If they're just placing their money around and hoping to get win and being lucky, then yeah, it's basically gambling. But if they're taking time to understand the situation before making a prediction and good judgement, then I wouldn't put it in the same category.

You can call prediction market whatever, you want but to me it's gambling because money is at stake and it's either you lose your money or make profit and that's what gambling is all about. It doesn't matter the event that is used for staking to make it possible.

Will you say that betting on matches isn't gambling then why do will have it also in prediction market if it's not similar to gambling.

Making up your own definitions of things is always wrong, even more when these don't align with what is widely established. Having money at stake, or risking money to potentially make profit or lose money does not automatically make something gambling. Traditionally we define gambling in a way that involves staking something valuable with a chance of either winning or losing, but risking money is not enough to define something as gambling. If it was, then any kind of investment would also be seen as gambling like investing in stocks, starting a business, lending money or other activities. They are not considered gambling and are very different from things that we consider to be gambling, but they also have the uncertainty factor and you can win or lose money with them. As you can see this is not how you can define gambling, and any personal definition is wrong.

Prediction markets and sports betting have plenty in common, but just having things in common does not mean that it will be classified as gambling. If prediction markets are going to be classified as gambling is going to depend on the country's laws and how the market is built and structured, in some places it may be seen as a financial instrument. If you really consider stuff like this, you could also define many derivatives as gambling, leverage, options and many forms of hedging. But this is why we need to be clear on definitions and not make up things just because we feel it should be some way.

[acroman08]

New York sues Kalshi over alleged illegal gambling operation

New York has sued prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging it operates an illegal, unlicensed gambling business by offering event contracts on sports, elections and other outcomes.

The lawsuit seeks to stop Kalshi’s alleged illegal gambling operation in the state, require the company to forfeit illegal gains, pay restitution to users and pay civil penalties equal to three times those gains.

The lawsuit adds to a growing clash between New York and the CFTC over whether federally regulated prediction markets are subject to state gambling laws.

Copied from https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-york-sues-kalshi-gambling-operation


New York AG Seeks $36B From Kalshi Over 'Illegal Gambling'
https://decrypt.co/374775/new-york-ag-seeks-36b-from-kalshi-over-illegal-gambling

I posted the same news earlier here. I thought no one had posted it yet, then I saw this post.

Anyway. It looks like New York has had enough of Kalshi, because in the article I read earlier, New York was claiming that Kalshi ignored the state's gambling law. So now New York is suing them for $36 billion as a consequence for ignoring the state's gambling law.

Kind of curious how this will end up. I mean, Kalshi has a lot of strong backups like the CFTC and Donald Trump's son(Trump jr.), who is connected to Kalshi, so I wonder if New York will be able to win their lawsuit against Kalshi.

[iv4n]

New York AG Seeks $36B From Kalshi Over 'Illegal Gambling'
https://decrypt.co/374775/new-york-ag-seeks-36b-from-kalshi-over-illegal-gambling

I posted the same news earlier here. I thought no one had posted it yet, then I saw this post.

Anyway. It looks like New York has had enough of Kalshi, because in the article I read earlier, New York was claiming that Kalshi ignored the state's gambling law. So now New York is suing them for $36 billion as a consequence for ignoring the state's gambling law.

Kind of curious how this will end up. I mean, Kalshi has a lot of strong backups like the CFTC and Donald Trump's son(Trump jr.), who is connected to Kalshi, so I wonder if New York will be able to win their lawsuit against Kalshi.

Up to $36 billion? New York is not joking... So, New York is taking this very seriously, and with this amount in question, it looks like they are pretty aggressive. I guess we can say the stakes are pretty high for Kalashi, but the outcome of this can affect other prediction markets in the US.

Well, I am curious as well... Most of us here will follow this case, it can become tricky for prediction markets if they lose.

[Texac]

You can call prediction market whatever, you want but to me it's gambling because money is at stake and it's either you lose your money or make profit and that's what gambling is all about. It doesn't matter the event that is used for staking to make it possible.

I disagree with you, mate.
Gambling and polymarket may seem similar to you, since both involve financial risk.
But you know, insurance policy, stock market or trading also involve financial risk. Yet we have universally recognized them as financial mechanism. Do you call them gambling?

Will you say that betting on matches isn't gambling then why do will have it also in prediction market if it's not similar to gambling.

Because, main difference between gambling and polymarket is in their mechanism of operation.
You know sportsbook always create fake risk against house and they directly relay on us to make profit from our losses.
Polymarket on the other hand are P2P exchange, where price of share fluctuate dynamically based on supply & demand. This process converts the pooled capital into real time prices. So it not only entertain you, it is also related to real event.

[|MINER|]

I get it where you're coming from mate, but I dont think just because something is uncertain means it is related to gambling...having that kind of logic will sound like you're saying that stock trading would also be considered as gambling since no one knows the outcome. To me, predicting a market depends more on research and understanding different informations ... Some people may treat them like a gambling, but that doesn't mean its true. I really think that It depends on how someone uses it. If they're just placing their money around and hoping to get win and being lucky, then yeah, it's basically gambling. But if they're taking time to understand the situation before making a prediction and good judgement, then I wouldn't put it in the same category.

You can call prediction market whatever, you want but to me it's gambling because money is at stake and it's either you lose your money or make profit and that's what gambling is all about. It doesn't matter the event that is used for staking to make it possible.

Will you say that betting on matches isn't gambling then why do will have it also in prediction market if it's not similar to gambling.

Any type of betting where money is involved is actually a part of gambling. And in this case, the prediction market that we are currently seeing a height is also actually a part of gambling.

However, I actually could not trust these prediction markets or derivative trading platforms from the beginning and I still can't. Even when people call it trading, it still seems odd to me. Even I am happier when a country imposes restrictions on such platforms, because already some specific powerful people have made huge income through insider trading through such platforms.

[Hispo]

New York sues Kalshi over alleged illegal gambling operation

New York has sued prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging it operates an illegal, unlicensed gambling business by offering event contracts on sports, elections and other outcomes.

The lawsuit seeks to stop Kalshi’s alleged illegal gambling operation in the state, require the company to forfeit illegal gains, pay restitution to users and pay civil penalties equal to three times those gains.

The lawsuit adds to a growing clash between New York and the CFTC over whether federally regulated prediction markets are subject to state gambling laws.

Copied from https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-york-sues-kalshi-gambling-operation


New York AG Seeks $36B From Kalshi Over 'Illegal Gambling'
https://decrypt.co/374775/new-york-ag-seeks-36b-from-kalshi-over-illegal-gambling

I posted the same news earlier here. I thought no one had posted it yet, then I saw this post.

Anyway. It looks like New York has had enough of Kalshi, because in the article I read earlier, New York was claiming that Kalshi ignored the state's gambling law. So now New York is suing them for $36 billion as a consequence for ignoring the state's gambling law.

Kind of curious how this will end up. I mean, Kalshi has a lot of strong backups like the CFTC and Donald Trump's son(Trump jr.), who is connected to Kalshi, so I wonder if New York will be able to win their lawsuit against Kalshi.

Well, I don't live in the United States and I don't have any professional knowledge on how this lawsuit could be carried out, but if the State of New York is suing them, then it would be considered a State lawsuit, not a federal lawsuit. So the president of the United States should not have so much influence on the outcome of this issue.
Also, that is an incredible amount of money, even for a company like Kalshi... It seems the government of New York is trying to get funding for their small state and NYC wherever they can get it from.

Some republican politicians will say this lawsuit is consequence of communism or the NYC major or something crazy like that.

[xenomorfo]

Up to $36 billion? New York is not joking... So, New York is taking this very seriously, and with this amount in question, it looks like they are pretty aggressive. I guess we can say the stakes are pretty high for Kalashi, but the outcome of this can affect other prediction markets in the US.

Well, I am curious as well... Most of us here will follow this case, it can become tricky for prediction markets if they lose.

Polymarket type prediction markets just seem like bets to me.
There are people who swear that this is absolutely not true but in reality i would say that it is pure and vulgar gambling, or rather pure and vulgar gambling in all respects.

[o48o]

Up to $36 billion? New York is not joking... So, New York is taking this very seriously, and with this amount in question, it looks like they are pretty aggressive. I guess we can say the stakes are pretty high for Kalashi, but the outcome of this can affect other prediction markets in the US.

Well, I am curious as well... Most of us here will follow this case, it can become tricky for prediction markets if they lose.

Prediction markets have calculated that they can afford to fight in court even if they lose, because revenues that happen during it are worth it. If you sue them for $100 million, it's like a bail money that is worth paying so why would it make a difference.

So in order for anyone to fight them they need to hurt them on a level that makes them take it seriously. Imho fines for everything from speeding tickets to fraud should correlate with wealth and salary to be efficient.

[iv4n]

Up to $36 billion? New York is not joking... So, New York is taking this very seriously, and with this amount in question, it looks like they are pretty aggressive. I guess we can say the stakes are pretty high for Kalashi, but the outcome of this can affect other prediction markets in the US.

Well, I am curious as well... Most of us here will follow this case, it can become tricky for prediction markets if they lose.

Prediction markets have calculated that they can afford to fight in court even if they lose, because revenues that happen during it are worth it. If you sue them for $100 million, it's like a bail money that is worth paying so why would it make a difference.

So in order for anyone to fight them they need to hurt them on a level that makes them take it seriously. Imho fines for everything from speeding tickets to fraud should correlate with wealth and salary to be efficient.

Well, this brings memories...

"When Breaking the Rules Becomes Cheaper Than Following Them" -
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5561744.msg65898011#msg65898011

I don't know how this came to mind, but Slapper hit the point in this thread, and it's still there... Somehow I feel the same thing happen again and again. And I see the connection... It's easier & more profitable to pay the fines than to stop business. Am I the only one? And when you see the pattern, what do you think about how many others are doing the same thing?

As an example, suppose you are a company manager and you know that doing the right thing would cost you 5bn, but doing the shady thing and paying the fine afterwards would cost you 500mn. The math is obvious. The fine is no longer a punishment but a business cost. A fine on law-breaking that is well worth paying. And this happening everywhere:

And this is happening everywhere...  

[Zlantann]

Well, I don't live in the United States and I don't have any professional knowledge on how this lawsuit could be carried out, but if the State of New York is suing them, then it would be considered a State lawsuit, not a federal lawsuit. So the president of the United States should not have so much influence on the outcome of this issue.
Also, that is an incredible amount of money, even for a company like Kalshi... It seems the government of New York is trying to get funding for their small state and NYC wherever they can get it from.

Some republican politicians will say this lawsuit is consequence of communism or the NYC major or something crazy like that.

Even if Kalshi loses in the state court, it can still file an appeal in higher courts. Expect this case to get to the appeal court and the Supreme Court. Trump has influence in these federal courts since he appointed some of the judges. Kalshi offered $300,000 worth of stake to Trump Jnr and the value of this stake has improved over the years. So he might want to protect Kalshi since he is making money from the platform. These prediction market companies should obey the gambling laws of States instead of claiming that they offer different services and suffering many court cases.

[Oshosondy]

Well, I don't live in the United States and I don't have any professional knowledge on how this lawsuit could be carried out, but if the State of New York is suing them, then it would be considered a State lawsuit, not a federal lawsuit. So the president of the United States should not have so much influence on the outcome of this issue.
Also, that is an incredible amount of money, even for a company like Kalshi... It seems the government of New York is trying to get funding for their small state and NYC wherever they can get it from.

Some republican politicians will say this lawsuit is consequence of communism or the NYC major or something crazy like that.

Even if Kalshi loses in the state court, it can still file an appeal in higher courts. Expect this case to get to the appeal court and the Supreme Court. Trump has influence in these federal courts since he appointed some of the judges. Kalshi offered $300,000 worth of stake to Trump Jnr and the value of this stake has improved over the years. So he might want to protect Kalshi since he is making money from the platform. These prediction market companies should obey the gambling laws of States instead of claiming that they offer different services and suffering many court cases.

Another thing is that we do not know if New York is going to win the case.

Prediction markets are complicated than to be called gambling, but in a country that does not allow gambling, like those Muslims countries, there is high probability that prediction market can not win that they are not gambling because of the similarities it has with gambling.

But if you take more look into it, they are not 100% the same like gambling but they are also very similar to trading, or a kind of gambling in a more modern form that has many characteristics of trading.

I have bet on Polymarket very well before that makes me understand that it is also very similar to trading.

Most exchanges now are having prediction markets. If it is not similar to trading, they will not have it.

[Hispo]

Well, I don't live in the United States and I don't have any professional knowledge on how this lawsuit could be carried out, but if the State of New York is suing them, then it would be considered a State lawsuit, not a federal lawsuit. So the president of the United States should not have so much influence on the outcome of this issue.
Also, that is an incredible amount of money, even for a company like Kalshi... It seems the government of New York is trying to get funding for their small state and NYC wherever they can get it from.

Some republican politicians will say this lawsuit is consequence of communism or the NYC major or something crazy like that.

Even if Kalshi loses in the state court, it can still file an appeal in higher courts. Expect this case to get to the appeal court and the Supreme Court. Trump has influence in these federal courts since he appointed some of the judges. Kalshi offered $300,000 worth of stake to Trump Jnr and the value of this stake has improved over the years. So he might want to protect Kalshi since he is making money from the platform. These prediction market companies should obey the gambling laws of States instead of claiming that they offer different services and suffering many court cases.

You have a good point there, if this case moves from state courts to federal courts of appeal or even to the supreme court, then there is a realistic chance the influence of the presidency actually kicks in and favors Kalshi.

In the best case scenario for prediction markets, this case goes all the way up to the supreme court and it is ruled by supreme judges that American citizens actually can access to prediction markets without requiring those companies to hold some licensed or registration with state governments. It would unleash a new frenzy within the prediction market ecosystem and Meta would accelerate it's plans to launch their own prediction market to grab more money.

[stadus]

I get it where you're coming from mate, but I dont think just because something is uncertain means it is related to gambling...having that kind of logic will sound like you're saying that stock trading would also be considered as gambling since no one knows the outcome. To me, predicting a market depends more on research and understanding different informations ... Some people may treat them like a gambling, but that doesn't mean its true. I really think that It depends on how someone uses it. If they're just placing their money around and hoping to get win and being lucky, then yeah, it's basically gambling. But if they're taking time to understand the situation before making a prediction and good judgement, then I wouldn't put it in the same category.

You can call prediction market whatever, you want but to me it's gambling because money is at stake and it's either you lose your money or make profit and that's what gambling is all about. It doesn't matter the event that is used for staking to make it possible.

Will you say that betting on matches isn't gambling then why do will have it also in prediction market if it's not similar to gambling.

Prediction market is still gambling because we are risking an amount here that we could lose anytime. And because its still driven by chance or probability, that still belong to gambling. As long as staking is happening, as long as there is money involved in every prediction, that we can't be sure if we may win or lose in the end, clearly its still a form of gambling, others are just trying to redirect us with its different name through predicting.

[AVE5]

Snip

Polymarket type prediction markets just seem like bets to me.
There are people who swear that this is absolutely not true but in reality i would say that it is pure and vulgar gambling, or rather pure and vulgar gambling in all respects.

I myself don't even know what category I can classify the poly market but as much as I can sense or tell, due to its playful activities and risks undergoing involved with participants motives, there's no other form I can picture the market if not gambling.
Of course they're all predicting games and events which also requires players or bettors to stake or wager with unpredictability and uncertainty of the outcome with the same vision of making income alongside.
Only that pure gambling can be fun as entertainment while the poly market is more like a serious business due to their hosts and events.

[Peanutswar]

Our country here in the Philippines does not have an official announcement that they will ban the use of the Polymarket instead happened here is Monopoly they dont want to let other competitors makes into this country just to compete with the local ones, so most of them regulate only these local casino and predictions, now these like the Polymarket are now filtered through the DNS filtering so if you dont have a knowledge with this its now restricted but if you know how to change your DNS of course you can freely use this but its not against the law because there is no implemented yet likewise with the exchanges.

[arwin100]

Our country here in the Philippines does not have an official announcement that they will ban the use of the Polymarket instead happened here is Monopoly they dont want to let other competitors makes into this country just to compete with the local ones, so most of them regulate only these local casino and predictions, now these like the Polymarket are now filtered through the DNS filtering so if you dont have a knowledge with this its now restricted but if you know how to change your DNS of course you can freely use this but its not against the law because there is no implemented yet likewise with the exchanges.

Actually they consider Polymarket as illegal, but until now we don't see any action made just like with other casinos which they banned its access in our jurisdiction.

But also take a look on this Polymarket manage to do this despite of strict regulation happening in our country.

Prediction market platform Polymarket has integrated QR Ph to its platform, allowing Filipinos to deposit cash via GCash, Maya, and GOTYME.

Previously, Filipinos seeking to use the service would have to deposit funds via cryptocurrency. This change opens the door for anyone in the country to use the platform and place bets on real-world events.

Source article

I can access polymarket without changing anything like DNS stuffs, then it seems the government didn't take any action on their existence yet. But who knows maybe they are next inline requested to be block and its expected because they don't have a license to operate here.

[Oshosondy]

US Court Rejects CFTC Bid to Pause New York Case Against Kalshi

This means that CFTC has told the New York court to revoke the New York case against Kalshi, but the court said no, that they are proceeding with the case.

This does not mean that NY government has won, but the case is proceeding and not cancelled.

Read about it on
https://en.bloomingbit.io/feed/news/117625

[KTChampions]

US Court Rejects CFTC Bid to Pause New York Case Against Kalshi

This means that CFTC has told the New York court to revoke the New York case against Kalshi, but the court said no, that they are proceeding with the case.

This does not mean that NY government has won, but the case is proceeding and not cancelled.

Read about it on
https://en.bloomingbit.io/feed/news/117625

Yeah, it's funny to see how a platform originally oriented towards the US is suffering (and generally taking risks - what will happen if the 36 billion fine is still activated?) specifically in the US 
I don't understand this activism. Businesses should simply flee such states. Even the costs of legal proceedings can be sensitive for businesses. These lazy government bastards are spending money that isn't theirs, so they can sue endlessly, it doesn't cost them anything, on the contrary, they earn political points.