Prediction markets legality as gambling or derivative trading platforms, & rules

[Onyeeze]

If a country bans gambling and allows prediction markets, then they are deceiving themselves since it is still a similar platform which can still be used irresponsibly and clients will still get addicted to it.

Im actually not very familiar with this.
Can you name some countries that completely ban gambling but still allow prediction markets?

Or countries that allowed prediction markets before, but later banned them after realizing they are similar to gambling?

any country who ban gambling most also restrict a prediction market so that is what we are supposed to understand because they must surely notice the different between both, so where predicting market only allowed is a place we are by gambling is being accepted but a country that does not work on prediction market or does not welcome casino it means that if gambling is no longer existing there they chances of prediction market surviving is at risk

[Johnlomape]

Im actually not very familiar with this.
Can you name some countries that completely ban gambling but still allow prediction markets?

Or countries that allowed prediction markets before, but later banned them after realizing they are similar to gambling?

any country who ban gambling most also restrict a prediction market so that is what we are supposed to understand because they must surely notice the different between both, so where predicting market only allowed is a place we are by gambling is being accepted but a country that does not work on prediction market or does not welcome casino it means that if gambling is no longer existing there they chances of prediction market surviving is at risk

The prediction market is arguably different from gambling and this is why so many countries including those ones that allow casinos to operate and provide betting services for their citizens to ban the prediction market due to the irregularities most of the prediction market are encouraging. Almost all the prediction markets are running from registering their services in most of the countries they are operating and it's very wrong and unacceptable by several countries. The prediction market is often known to be providing bets on politics, natural disasters, government policies and so many others that can create conflicts in most of the countries they are offered.

[Texac]

I get it where you're coming from mate, but I dont think just because something is uncertain means it is related to gambling...having that kind of logic will sound like you're saying that stock trading would also be considered as gambling since no one knows the outcome. To me, predicting a market depends more on research and understanding different informations ...

By this logic, if I analyse a sports game very well and place a bet, then I am not gambling? Even you don't think so. No matter the analysis, no matter how much I understand the sport, it is still gambling. If two people, let's say A and B, are running for office and I look at the data and analyze that B will win, then I place a bet on B to win; that is gambling. I have taken a gamble on B.

Yeah, you can clearly see that line here is actually much thinner than it might seem. Good analysis of an event by itself doesn’t turn a bet into investment or trading. You can know football inside out, study team statistic, player injury or previous match, but in the end, you’re still putting money on uncertain outcome. In that sense, sport betting is still gambling regardless of how good your analysis is.

But I wouldn’t agree that the main difference with trading is necessarily the idea of “buy asset then wait for price to go up then sell it. There are plenty of instrument in financial market where it doesn’t work like that at all. You know, option and future can have specific expiration date and can be settled in cash depending on outcome. And we still consider them financial instrument.

On the other hand, if someone simply buy a contract and hold it until the event is resolved then from practical point of view, it really does look very similar to regular bet. Something like event happens then you get paid, it doesn’t then you lose your money. So I’d say prediction market are somewhere on the line between trading and betting.

[Antotena]

The prediction market is arguably different from gambling and this is why so many countries including those ones that allow casinos to operate and provide betting services for their citizens to ban the prediction market due to the irregularities most of the prediction market are encouraging. Almost all the prediction markets are running from registering their services in most of the countries they are operating and it's very wrong and unacceptable by several countries. The prediction market is often known to be providing bets on politics, natural disasters, government policies and so many others that can create conflicts in most of the countries they are offered.

The prediction market is a very terrible place especially that Polymarket. I have seen prediction market in other casino and betting platforms, they work pretty well but have reservations for some things they list as predictions. The one thing I don't like about them is the fact that they ruined things for some people, let's talk about election for instance, their decisions and predictions comprised the transparency of the system because people vote based on what they can win and not the reason they want to vote.

The last one I hate is war, I don't like prediction that much because I prefer better and play with some casino games but I will not bet between countries that are going to attack each other first. It enable some moves that people don't expect. Imagine institutions betting on one country to attack another country where there are kids, mothers, age parents and many disable people, this is not fun any longer, it's absence of humanity and greed.l

[bangjoe]

The prediction market is a very terrible place especially that Polymarket. I have seen prediction market in other casino and betting platforms, they work pretty well but have reservations for some things they list as predictions. The one thing I don't like about them is the fact that they ruined things for some people, let's talk about election for instance, their decisions and predictions comprised the transparency of the system because people vote based on what they can win and not the reason they want to vote.

The last one I hate is war, I don't like prediction that much because I prefer better and play with some casino games but I will not bet between countries that are going to attack each other first. It enable some moves that people don't expect. Imagine institutions betting on one country to attack another country where there are kids, mothers, age parents and many disable people, this is not fun any longer, it's absence of humanity and greed.l

With what you said last about the loss of humanity and greed because betting on the future is like betting on one country to attack another country of course this looks cruel because there are victims who can even die, like betting to get pleasure from the suffering of others.

And if like that I think this is an inhumane act, even though the goal is for profit but it doesn't have to be like that because there are still other bets that can be done like the casino you mentioned. Betting with the other side there will be people who become victims (die) like psychopaths.

[Oshosondy]

CFTC Invokes Emergency Powers to Keep Kalshi Trading Despite New York Suit

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/cftc-invokes-emergency-powers-keep-092212948.html

I do not think the state can be able to do anything, despite the lawsuit that New York court accepted to proceed, CFTC still order Kalshi to continue operating in New York. This could have happened probably New York trying to make sure Kalshiis not operating in the NY before the court order. I am not sure, but that is what I think.

[red4slash]

And if like that I think this is an inhumane act, even though the goal is for profit but it doesn't have to be like that because there are still other bets that can be done like the casino you mentioned. Betting with the other side there will be people who become victims (die) like psychopaths.

The point is that for the current prediction market they must be more able to make wiser actions even though they may not be able to fully regulate the bettors who tend to be "naughty" but they can still limit some of the bets that enter the prediction market.

We know everything can be used as gambling but for some sensitive things or leads to a reduction in the value of empathy for others including some bets on war and life and death of someone it should be minimized.
We gamblers should not act as regulators and connoisseurs of the misery of others because as you say we are not psychopaths.

Here we should as gamblers and service providers such as prediction markets be wiser in determining because do not let some decisions that are taboo actually damage people's trust and make gambling a stigma that continues to be bad.

[Texac]

And if like that I think this is an inhumane act, even though the goal is for profit but it doesn't have to be like that because there are still other bets that can be done like the casino you mentioned. Betting with the other side there will be people who become victims (die) like psychopaths.

The point is that for the current prediction market they must be more able to make wiser actions even though they may not be able to fully regulate the bettors who tend to be "naughty" but they can still limit some of the bets that enter the prediction market.
We know everything can be used as gambling but for some sensitive things or leads to a reduction in the value of empathy for others including some bets on war and life and death of someone it should be minimized.
We gamblers should not act as regulators and connoisseurs of the misery of others because as you say we are not psychopaths.
Here we should as gamblers and service providers such as prediction markets be wiser in determining because do not let some decisions that are taboo actually damage people's trust and make gambling a stigma that continues to be bad.

I agree with this point. When it comes to war, terrorist attack or any other human tragedies it could lead toward wrong incentive.
Same time problem is not only about morality, some of these market really can create wrong incentive. But I also do not think all responsibility should be placed on gamblers themselve. Prediction market are the ones deciding which contract to create and which bets to accept, s platform should have their own policies when it comes to most sensitive event. Only just because there is an opportunity to earn commissions does not mean that every possible market should be allowed.

[acroman08]

CFTC Invokes Emergency Powers to Keep Kalshi Trading Despite New York Suit

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/cftc-invokes-emergency-powers-keep-092212948.html

I do not think the state can be able to do anything, despite the lawsuit that New York court accepted to proceed, CFTC still order Kalshi to continue operating in New York. This could have happened probably New York trying to make sure Kalshiis not operating in the NY before the court order. I am not sure, but that is what I think.

I don't know why, but CFTC trying to defend Kalshi this much, to the point of using their "emergency powers", is suspicious. I mean, from my point of view, CFTC is trying to undermine New York's ruling that Kalshi is breaking the state's gambling law by operating illegal gambling in the state. Makes you wonder what CFTC have to lose if Kalshi stopped operating in New York.

[Karl_3000]

I agree with this point. When it comes to war, terrorist attack or any other human tragedies it could lead toward wrong incentive.
Same time problem is not only about morality, some of these market really can create wrong incentive. But I also do not think all responsibility should be placed on gamblers themselve.

When it comes to war and other related things, I do not know the reason why people are saying prediction markets do not need to have the markets for war. But what people are betting can not change the outcome of a war nor change anything about the war.

I don't know why, but CFTC trying to defend Kalshi this much, to the point of using their "emergency powers", is suspicious. I mean, from my point of view, CFTC is trying to undermine New York's ruling that Kalshi is breaking the state's gambling law by operating illegal gambling in the state. Makes you wonder what CFTC have to lose if Kalshi stopped operating in New York.

CFCT is related to federal government influence which is more powerful than states influence.

[#CapsLOck]

And if like that I think this is an inhumane act, even though the goal is for profit but it doesn't have to be like that because there are still other bets that can be done like the casino you mentioned. Betting with the other side there will be people who become victims (die) like psychopaths.

The point is that for the current prediction market they must be more able to make wiser actions even though they may not be able to fully regulate the bettors who tend to be "naughty" but they can still limit some of the bets that enter the prediction market.
We know everything can be used as gambling but for some sensitive things or leads to a reduction in the value of empathy for others including some bets on war and life and death of someone it should be minimized.
We gamblers should not act as regulators and connoisseurs of the misery of others because as you say we are not psychopaths.
Here we should as gamblers and service providers such as prediction markets be wiser in determining because do not let some decisions that are taboo actually damage people's trust and make gambling a stigma that continues to be bad.

I agree with this point. When it comes to war, terrorist attack or any other human tragedies it could lead toward wrong incentive.
Same time problem is not only about morality, some of these market really can create wrong incentive. But I also do not think all responsibility should be placed on gamblers themselve. Prediction market are the ones deciding which contract to create and which bets to accept, s platform should have their own policies when it comes to most sensitive event. Only just because there is an opportunity to earn commissions does not mean that every possible market should be allowed.

I agree that prediction markets are more sensitive about sensitive events. It's not just a question of morality; some markets may be designed to foster negative motivations or diminish sensitivity toward the actual suffering of others. Responsibility, on the other hand, should not be completely on the shoulders of the bettors. Platforms determine the contracts they will offer and the bets they will accept and should have clear policies on markets about war, terrorism, death and other tragedies. Profit or commissions may not be made in a market but does not mean that it should be offered. Responsible regulation must strike the right balance between freedom of the market and some basic ethical limits.

[sompitonov]

The legality of prediction markets is increasingly being questioned, but as long as they're legal in many countries, they'll continue to be used, even though it's clear to many that there are plenty of insiders. I don't place bets there because I understand my margins will be extremely small or even negative, as I'm not a great expert. But that doesn't mean I should stop trying to improve and gain confidence, to become better than other players. I'm also seeing a trend toward bans on prediction markets in many countries, as well as better regulatory oversight, which could likely benefit the entire ecosystem.

[Outhue]

The prediction market is arguably different from gambling and this is why so many countries including those ones that allow casinos to operate and provide betting services for their citizens to ban the prediction market due to the irregularities most of the prediction market are encouraging. Almost all the prediction markets are running from registering their services in most of the countries they are operating and it's very wrong and unacceptable by several countries. The prediction market is often known to be providing bets on politics, natural disasters, government policies and so many others that can create conflicts in most of the countries they are offered.

The prediction market is a very terrible place especially that Polymarket. I have seen prediction market in other casino and betting platforms, they work pretty well but have reservations for some things they list as predictions. The one thing I don't like about them is the fact that they ruined things for some people, let's talk about election for instance, their decisions and predictions comprised the transparency of the system because people vote based on what they can win and not the reason they want to vote.

The last one I hate is war, I don't like prediction that much because I prefer better and play with some casino games but I will not bet between countries that are going to attack each other first. It enable some moves that people don't expect. Imagine institutions betting on one country to attack another country where there are kids, mothers, age parents and many disable people, this is not fun any longer, it's absence of humanity and greed.l

Prediction market makes money on every single events that's happening in the world, this is where our own mindset have lead us in this life, since we have sports and casinos it should be more than enough but that's not the case, they want to keep farming money from people, apart from war and other bad things that prediction markets make possible for people I believe that it shouldn't have existed.

Prediction market feels like a total scam, they run the game themselves knowing exactly how things will turn up but they now make it available for the world to get more money, there is no fairness in prediction market, unlike sports where how the team plays the game will determine the winner, prediction market is far from it..

[Ishicryptic]

The legality of prediction markets is increasingly being questioned, but as long as they're legal in many countries, they'll continue to be used, even though it's clear to many that there are plenty of insiders. I don't place bets there because I understand my margins will be extremely small or even negative, as I'm not a great expert. But that doesn't mean I should stop trying to improve and gain confidence, to become better than other players. I'm also seeing a trend toward bans on prediction markets in many countries, as well as better regulatory oversight, which could likely benefit the entire ecosystem.

The skepticism around prediction market is quite high now, from many reports and proofs about insider trading which is pure manipulation to the prediction sites not owning up that they are into gambling businesses which is very obvious, these are questionable areas that are making some countries and observers to be biased about them. If they don't identify as gambling platforms I believe that more countries would consider banning them because they are not going to regulate them as gambling platforms and tax them accordingly. Aside from the insider trading which is a dent on the transparency of prediction market I believe that gamblers or in their case traders don't mind placing their trades so despite all the skepticisms that surrounds the prediction market I see it as an industry that has potentials to grow, the main issues that they are having is government bans.

[Oshosondy]

30th most populous city in United States, city of Baltimore and its major has filed a lawsuit against Kalshi and Polymarket.

Mayor Brandon M. Scott and the City of Baltimore File Consumer Protection Actions Against Kalshi and Polymarket Over Illegal Sports Betting and Prediction Market Gambling

You can read more about the lawsuit on https://www.baltimorecity.gov/mayor/news-media/press-releases/2026-08-13-mayor-brandon-m-scott-and-the-city-of-baltimore-file-consumer-protection-actions-against-kalshi-and-polymarket-over-illegal-sports-betting-and-prediction-market-gambling

[bangjoe]

And if like that I think this is an inhumane act, even though the goal is for profit but it doesn't have to be like that because there are still other bets that can be done like the casino you mentioned. Betting with the other side there will be people who become victims (die) like psychopaths.

The point is that for the current prediction market they must be more able to make wiser actions even though they may not be able to fully regulate the bettors who tend to be "naughty" but they can still limit some of the bets that enter the prediction market.

We know everything can be used as gambling but for some sensitive things or leads to a reduction in the value of empathy for others including some bets on war and life and death of someone it should be minimized.
We gamblers should not act as regulators and connoisseurs of the misery of others because as you say we are not psychopaths.

Here we should as gamblers and service providers such as prediction markets be wiser in determining because do not let some decisions that are taboo actually damage people's trust and make gambling a stigma that continues to be bad.

You said a wise thing in my opinion and yes I agree with what you said even more so in the sentence I printed in bold. Although maybe yes indeed this gambling most people see this is a bad thing but as a gambler we must also be healthy in doing so, such as not excessive in betting or doing it and can see things that are worth betting on and not worth betting on, especially when it comes to the suffering of others. Do you know the squid game movie where it is done over the bets of billionaires with the risk of players losing their lives of course it is a heinous act. So yes, even if we like to gamble Just keep it reasonable.

[acroman08]

A Superior Court judge in Washington just ruled against Kalshi and ordered them to "cease most of its operations in Washington state". They were also required to install a geofence to prevent people from Washing to bet in their platform, and they are also being told to stop advertising in Washington. That being said, it looks like Kalshi is not willing to follow the order and even said that the Washington court "lacks jurisdiction to make that call", they also said that they are considering all legal options, which probably means they want to stop the orders coming from the Washington court.

https://www.kuow.org/law/2026-08-14/king-county-judge-orders-kalshi-to-stop-most-online-betting-in-washington-state

[ejikeme24]

any country who ban gambling most also restrict a prediction market so that is what we are supposed to understand because they must surely notice the different between both, so where predicting market only allowed is a place we are by gambling is being accepted but a country that does not work on prediction market or does not welcome casino it means that if gambling is no longer existing there they chances of prediction market surviving is at risk

The thing is that even if they ban gambling in such country and also prediction market most of the citizens will still look for a way to get into prediction market. You seem to have forgotten that there are folks who visit gambling site without even considering the fact that gambling is restricted in Thier country, this online gambling have make things very difficult for the government especially those government that would like to ban gambling in Thier country. It can only work Best for Those that doesn't know how online gambling works which they will  still want to learn if the offline gamble is closed.

[Oshosondy]

A Superior Court judge in Washington just ruled against Kalshi and ordered them to "cease most of its operations in Washington state". They were also required to install a geofence to prevent people from Washing to bet in their platform, and they are also being told to stop advertising in Washington. That being said, it looks like Kalshi is not willing to follow the order and even said that the Washington court "lacks jurisdiction to make that call", they also said that they are considering all legal options, which probably means they want to stop the orders coming from the Washington court.

https://www.kuow.org/law/2026-08-14/king-county-judge-orders-kalshi-to-stop-most-online-betting-in-washington-state

I was about to post this and I noticed that you have posted it already.

It is not a total restriction.

Contracts tied to sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, tech and science are barred while others are allowed. People that are interested in commodities, climate, economics and finance can still make use if the prediction market.

[Dogedegen]

A Superior Court judge in Washington just ruled against Kalshi and ordered them to "cease most of its operations in Washington state". They were also required to install a geofence to prevent people from Washing to bet in their platform, and they are also being told to stop advertising in Washington. That being said, it looks like Kalshi is not willing to follow the order and even said that the Washington court "lacks jurisdiction to make that call", they also said that they are considering all legal options, which probably means they want to stop the orders coming from the Washington court.

https://www.kuow.org/law/2026-08-14/king-county-judge-orders-kalshi-to-stop-most-online-betting-in-washington-state

People must understand that when they say that it lacks jurisdiction they are not trying to say that the Washington court does not have legal power over Kalshi. They want to say that the federal government or the CFTC has the exclusive authority over the contracts that they have on their platform, and this goes with the arguments that they are having in the big case about prediction markets. People should not be surprised at this at all because if they said something different it would weaken the big case, because if they admit that the court has jurisdiction because state law applies or that these are gambling products then they will lose the big case and this situation would be used against them. They can fight this with many means an they can continue with the appeals court. It really comes down to the same thing that we talked about, who has jurisdiction over this kind of product? When the big case is resolved by the supreme court, everything will be clear and the cases will settle. These things take time because they are complicated and there are many steps involved, I checked with ChatGPT and there are several cases going at different states and different court levels.