Possible Market Fall, Still in the Bear

[summonerrk]

Despite the positive impact geopolitics may have had on Bitcoin's price, investors withdrew about $5.4B from BTC ETFs over four straight weeks of outflows, with IBIT leading the way. The streak ended on June 12: spot BTC ETFs attracted $85.85M, two-thirds through IBIT, and none of the 12 funds saw outflows.
 Ironically, we're still holding at 66-67k.
Crypto Fear & Greed is in extreme fear territory, despite BTC's 11% rebound from its yearly low. The crowd isn't buying into the upside. Coinbase CEO calls $60k the bottom. Recent buyers are deep underwater, institutional demand has weakened.

[imthegreat]

Despite the positive impact geopolitics may have had on Bitcoin's price, investors withdrew about $5.4B from BTC ETFs over four straight weeks of outflows, with IBIT leading the way. The streak ended on June 12: spot BTC ETFs attracted $85.85M, two-thirds through IBIT, and none of the 12 funds saw outflows.
 Ironically, we're still holding at 66-67k.
Crypto Fear & Greed is in extreme fear territory, despite BTC's 11% rebound from its yearly low. The crowd isn't buying into the upside. Coinbase CEO calls $60k the bottom. Recent buyers are deep underwater, institutional demand has weakened.

Today is a day of great optimism, and Bitcoin is indeed already at 66,700, but how stable is this "flight"?
What if the Hormuz turmoil continues tomorrow after new attacks by the US and Iran?
I saw a chart in which analysts from Alphractal point out that the level of realized losses for Bitcoin holders remains low.
This means that many investors are still losing money, but they prefer not to exit BTC.
Logically, if they start doing so after some negative event, it could trigger a panic move. This could lead to new lows, theoretically below 60,000.
And if you look at the Bitcoin/USDT chart, this could lead to a full "head and shoulders" reversal pattern. As far as I know, this pattern, when broken, often ends with a sharp price drop...

[obuoma]

Ironically, we're still holding at 66-67k.
Crypto Fear & Greed is in extreme fear territory, despite BTC's 11% rebound from its yearly low. The crowd isn't buying into the upside. Coinbase CEO calls $60k the bottom. Recent buyers are deep underwater, institutional demand has weakened.

I do not trust that rally as I see that as a bull trap. I don't want to believe that the market is being manipulated at the moment even though the signs are there but what I know is certain is that we cannot rule out further drop in price. The possibility of Bitcoin falling to $53k is still there so it is good to consider all possibilities now to avoid making any mistakes. Whatever happens, those who continue to accumulate now and not give in to fear, will reap great reward because the market is at a very low price compared to where it will be from new year onward.

[cxtreenal]

Ironically, we're still holding at 66-67k.
Crypto Fear & Greed is in extreme fear territory, despite BTC's 11% rebound from its yearly low. The crowd isn't buying into the upside. Coinbase CEO calls $60k the bottom. Recent buyers are deep underwater, institutional demand has weakened.

I do not trust that rally as I see that as a bull trap. I don't want to believe that the market is being manipulated at the moment even though the signs are there but what I know is certain is that we cannot rule out further drop in price. The possibility of Bitcoin falling to $53k is still there so it is good to consider all possibilities now to avoid making any mistakes. Whatever happens, those who continue to accumulate now and not give in to fear, will reap great reward because the market is at a very low price compared to where it will be from new year onward.

I believe that sometimes the market is manipulated when big investors need money. Many people may not believe this idea, but sometimes the price volatility seems to be intentional. After the war situation in the Middle East and the months of disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz ended, many experienced investors predicted that a bull run would begin. Yesterday's market conditions looked like that, but today the market is falling again. This is an example of intentional market manipulation. I think an elite Bitcoin community is creating a deliberate price drop for large Bitcoin holdings. But I believe that retail and long-term Bitcoin investors are keeping the market active and holding Bitcoin is reducing the selling pressure.

[barbara44]

It was a good week to be fair, yes it did not went up a lot, but it did not crashed neither. I feel like this is doing fine and we should not be really considering this as that bad, we are looking into this as something that is stable at this moment. Doesn't mean long run will be stable, of course we will either go up or down, bitcoin is normally volatile and I am talking about just these days.

I feel like bear is still going on and during this summer, I mean before summer ends, we are going to see under 60k for sure. After that is a bit unknown to me, could it go under 55k? Could it go even under 50k? I really do not know. My only prediction is that it should be under 60k before the summer ends, because we are still in bear period.

[STT]

Almost a week maintaining above the weekly average, its not likely a bearish move in the near term at least.   Further out I see we are outside the trend line fall from the ATH, depsite the deep falter we haven't fallen enough to be within that pattern of decline.
  Its purely a repeat at this point, disappointing as that might be it means that so far we have failed to move price action any further negative it could be a double bottom or quite bullish.  Consider it a test of the BTC volume at these levels and also on a personal level of sentiment and willingness to hold BTC even while its not especially profitable or hyped at all; it happens it always does.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I feel like bear is still going on and during this summer, I mean before summer ends, we are going to see under 60k for sure. After that is a bit unknown to me, could it go under 55k? Could it go even under 50k? I really do not know. My only prediction is that it should be under 60k before the summer ends, because we are still in bear period.

Yes, it doesn’t look as though we’ve got out of the slump yet. What’s happening this year is that good news pushes the price up a little, whilst bad news sends it plummeting very quickly. As far as I’m concerned, the recent, very tentative rebound is a prelude to levels below $60,000, as you say. Just how low the price might go is the million-dollar question, but I’m certain it’s going to fall below $60,000.

[Bushdark]

Ironically, we're still holding at 66-67k.
Crypto Fear & Greed is in extreme fear territory, despite BTC's 11% rebound from its yearly low. The crowd isn't buying into the upside. Coinbase CEO calls $60k the bottom. Recent buyers are deep underwater, institutional demand has weakened.

I do not trust that rally as I see that as a bull trap. I don't want to believe that the market is being manipulated at the moment even though the signs are there but what I know is certain is that we cannot rule out further drop in price. The possibility of Bitcoin falling to $53k is still there so it is good to consider all possibilities now to avoid making any mistakes. Whatever happens, those who continue to accumulate now and not give in to fear, will reap great reward because the market is at a very low price compared to where it will be from new year onward.

I have been seeing different market analysts and also those that know nothing about the market giving their own predictions which are mostly based on what most speculators have explained about the market.
The price of Bitcoin has no intention to continue the bull market and what we would be experiencing is a bull trap and whales do use this move to confuse traders and investors that are going to make money from the market because of the movement they are seeing.
There is no sign yet that the price of Bitcoin is going to continue going bull.

[STT]

BTC is repeating its price action here like a bowling ball on ice, it could break through or continue.  You have to assess how much value support a moving average gives and in theory its none at all, its an indicator not literal support.  People can buy at  this area as its marked a long term positive, the 200 week is still rising but that effect can cease also, hence we fall through the ice.   Once we're through  and definitively have lost the low first seen in Feb this year then it'll be much harder to get back out and above again, people can sell just from fear of that prospect.

   I think the FED is like a bear's bluff charge, I don't think its got the will to put markets lower merely moderate their action.  But also I don't play chicken with bears, that'd be the whole point & that speculative excess is scared off without even a fight.

[henmark]

The bear market is still not over. After every bull season digital asset like bitcoin does not drop drastically, bitcoin dips in a gradual process, during the bear market there is always a fluctuation in the price of bitcoin, sometimes the price will go up, and sometimes the price will will go down, and this process makes bitcoin to take time before reaching it's bottom.
Statistically, it takes bitcoin some years to experience bull market, it also take some years to experience the bear market or for bear market to be over, and because bitcoin is a volatile asset, sharing it's price into equal halves before the bull season is possible during the bear market.

Not sure if it was also bear markets in other markets but other markets are usually less volatile than on what we have here, which means they truly can dip in an instant. Maybe instead say that a season like a bear does not end quickly but it is in a gradual process and there were also several fluctuations along the way.

As said earlier that a dip can come in an instant, that may also mean that the bottom may be hit already before we even know it. I can only feel sorry for those who still expects it. Here in BTC/crypto or their volatility were random, so an equal halve are not guaranteed. And then we may only halve the price at 50% max after some peak of an ATH according on my observation. But that can be because more than it was too much already and then not many are that weak or greedy.

[Nathrixxx]

The signal received today as well shows a continuous pattern to how the market is possibly going to fall below $60,000 anytime from now, but currently as we speak, we have it at $61,000 after making it to $63,000 earlier, if we did not forget that we already had up to $65,000 within a space of 1 week from the market price on the chat before the sudden falls, living us at $62,000 earlier this week.

[BALIK]

The signal received today as well shows a continuous pattern to how the market is possibly going to fall below $60,000 anytime from now, but currently as we speak, we have it at $61,000 after making it to $63,000 earlier, if we did not forget that we already had up to $65,000 within a space of 1 week from the market price on the chat before the sudden falls, living us at $62,000 earlier this week.

Interestingly, it is not just Bitcoin that is falling. Gold and oil are also down, while the stock has been moving sideway after yesterday's decline. It seems that the entire financial market is being soldoff, as if everyone is taking profits at the same time.

Given the current situation,I expect Bitcoin to drop below $60k soon, and the bear market could last until the end of the year. It is clear that the 4 year cycle is repeating itself, but many people still have not accepted this reality.

If Bitcoin drops to $50k, that would be a huge opportunity for us .

[asriloni]

The signal received today as well shows a continuous pattern to how the market is possibly going to fall below $60,000 anytime from now, but currently as we speak, we have it at $61,000 after making it to $63,000 earlier, if we did not forget that we already had up to $65,000 within a space of 1 week from the market price on the chat before the sudden falls, living us at $62,000 earlier this week.

When bitcoin bounced back to 65k. It's just a dead cat bounce. The dump always needs interval, and it's now below 60k. So this confirm Bitcoin may be going to the 52k - 54k if it's not bouncing back above 60k. It's also reminding us a bump doesn't always mean bitcoin to recover.

So we have to be even more careful when trading.

[Pandorak]

(...)

When bitcoin bounced back to 65k. It's just a dead cat bounce. The dump always needs interval, and it's now below 60k. So this confirm Bitcoin may be going to the 52k - 54k if it's not bouncing back above 60k. It's also reminding us a bump doesn't always mean bitcoin to recover.

So we have to be even more careful when trading.

Based on my personal analysis, i strongly believe this, even though Bitcoin price could be considered very cheap, given that it has fallen more than -50% from its ATH, that doesn’t necessarily mean Bitcoin bottom will be at $59k.

The previous gradual rise to $67k was merely a correction on a low time frame. Meanwhile, when viewed on a higher time frame, the trend remains bearish.

The $52k–$54k range you mentioned serves as strong support that Bitcoin may reach after breaking out above $59k. I see Bitcoin potentially dropping to $49k, we’ll observe how Bitcoin reacts if it actually reaches that price. Hopefully, there will be confirmation of a reversal and the bearish trend will truly come to an end.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Based on my personal analysis, i strongly believe this, even though Bitcoin price could be considered very cheap, given that it has fallen more than -50% from its ATH, that doesn’t necessarily mean Bitcoin bottom will be at $59k.

The previous gradual rise to $67k was merely a correction on a low time frame. Meanwhile, when viewed on a higher time frame, the trend remains bearish.

The $52k–$54k range you mentioned serves as strong support that Bitcoin may reach after breaking out above $59k. I see Bitcoin potentially dropping to $49k, we’ll observe how Bitcoin reacts if it actually reaches that price. Hopefully, there will be confirmation of a reversal and the bearish trend will truly come to an end.

Let's see, I understand that we haven't touch the lowest low yet for this bear cycle as we have still the next year. So it's possible to hit below $50k. But I don't think that it's going to happen in 2026.

It's possible that it could be next year, when there is one black swan event that will capitulate the market into seeing the lowest low. As for that even, I don't know what it could be. In the last bear market, it was teh FTX collapse that really pull down the price to it's lowest low. So let's see how it goes if the pattern will continue for that one event that will cause the market to panic and see a downward spiral.

[imthegreat]

An analyst with 70,000 followers on X, Jesse Olson, issued a less-than-rosy forecast based on his own trading indicator, Market Sniper Pro VWAP:



It features a yellow line, a volume-weighted average price, and the idea is that Bitcoin's actual price constantly approaches it. Whether it's actually lower or higher...

Olson anchored the line's baseline at the 2022 bear market low, and it now serves as a kind of support.
Some might say this is an overly pessimistic baseline, others might say it's fair, but that's precisely why it can be considered a solid support.

Olson predicts the aforementioned decline for Bitcoin only if the stock market falls by 50 percent, which other analysts consider unlikely.

[Dave1]

^^ I also see some post, I can't remember if it is here on in the other community about stocks and it's price correlation on Bitcoin market. And if I'm not mistaken, it says that if stocks goes down hard, Bitcoin will likely follow.

However, I could be one of those pundits that disagree with the correlation. There could be some, but I doubt that there is a cross-over, and that investors are most likely to shift their money to either market.

[free-bit.co.in]

^^ I also see some post, I can't remember if it is here on in the other community about stocks and it's price correlation on Bitcoin market. And if I'm not mistaken, it says that if stocks goes down hard, Bitcoin will likely follow.

However, I could be one of those pundits that disagree with the correlation. There could be some, but I doubt that there is a cross-over, and that investors are most likely to shift their money to either market.

Crypto and stocks are indeed correlated, but that does not mean they always move in the same direction or react the same way under all market conditions.

Although both are risky markets, each has its own cycle as well as different groups of investor. Therefore, they can sometimes separate and operate independently, and that will depend on cash flow and investor sentiment.

Similar to what has happened over the past few month, Bitcoin has fallen from $126k to $59k while the S&P500 and Nasdaq indices have maintained an upward trend during the same period.