Russia is surely sacrificing long term prosperity for prolonged war!

[katanic97]

Many economic analysts are asking this very question; can Russia sustain the war longer than the West can sustain support for Ukraine?
 
That becomes a battle of; demographics, technology, energy markets, political stability and sanction resilience.

What we're seeing Russia double on is that they can survive economically for years, yet concerns remain that the economy after the war will be characterized by; less innovation, increased isolation and a high dependence in China.

That's where economic analyst argue that the real economic loss may already be happening!

None of us can know for sure how long this war can continue. In my opinion, it's already crazy that it has lasted this long.I find it very hard to believe that Russia could suffer an economic collapse. Even if the economic effects and losses are being felt, i don't think the situation can deteriorate dramatically from here. Russia is simply too powerful a country to allow itself to face economic ruin

Only those officials involve provably know on when they end up their egoistic attacks to each other. That's why what we can only do is to speculate and read the latest news about their conflicts.

But I also believe that even if Russia is have strong economy, still they are suffering badly on sanctions and isolation's they currently experiencing now. Maybe we don't see those effect or maybe they hide it to avoid losing their influence but if this situation will last long. Maybe Russia's economy might badly got affected with those economic sanctions because this situation can make their economic growth became so slow.

I don't like war because i don't think it really solves anything, and as we can see, nothing is being resolved here either. If Ukraine wasn't receiving support from europe, I don't know what would have happened, but it definitely wouldn't be good. At this point, it feels like a war between Russia and europe, with Ukraine heavily relying on european support. The problem is that Ukraine depends on that support, and there's always a possibility that Europe could decide to stop providing aid at some point.There are definitely losses on Russia's side as well, but i still think they wouldn't allow those problems to become too serious or visible. In the end, i believe everyone would like to see this war end, and not just this one but all wars. Ordinary people suffer the most, especially innocent civilians, all because of what i see as the politics and interests of a few so called "important" people

[Coyster]

I'm not a fan of war because i don't think it really solves anything, and as we can see, nothing is being resolved here either.

Nobody is. Only a sick person would be a "fan" of war. How can you enjoy destruction, carnage and death.

The problem is that Ukraine depends on that support, and there's always a possibility that Europe could decide to stop providing aid at some point.

That is very unlikely to happen. Europe and the United States strongly support Ukraine and they would continue to do so. I know the U.S. have not made new commitments in terms of funding since 2024, but aid that were previously allocated are still being sent to Ukraine, so all good i guess. Then there is Europe, solidly providing their support and i don't see the possibility of that stopping.

[BALIK]

The problem is that Ukraine depends on that support, and there's always a possibility that Europe could decide to stop providing aid at some point.

That is very unlikely to happen. Europe and the United States strongly support Ukraine and they would continue to do so. I know the U.S. have not made new commitments in terms of funding since 2024, but aid that were previously allocated are still being sent to Ukraine, so all good i guess. Then there is Europe, solidly providing their support and i don't see the possibility of that stopping.

No one wants to lose this war because it is not just a war for territory and resources. This is a war between two world orders. So, the scenario of the US and EU ceasing aid to Ukraine is quite unlikely in the short term.

However, the longer a war lasts, the greater the financial burden and not every country can maintain that level of aid indefinitely. Sooner or later, one side will have to give in and surrender first. We will have to wait and see which side is willing to make concessions first.

[katanic97]

I'm not a fan of war because i don't think it really solves anything, and as we can see, nothing is being resolved here either.

Nobody is. Only a sick person would be a "fan" of war. How can you enjoy destruction, carnage and death.

The problem is that Ukraine depends on that support, and there's always a possibility that Europe could decide to stop providing aid at some point.

That is very unlikely to happen. Europe and the United States strongly support Ukraine and they would continue to do so. I know the U.S. have not made new commitments in terms of funding since 2024, but aid that were previously allocated are still being sent to Ukraine, so all good i guess. Then there is Europe, solidly providing their support and i don't see the possibility of that stopping.

Maybe i didn't express myself very well, my mistake. But do you really think nobody is? I actually think that the people who started the war and those providing massive support for it are the ones who truly like war. At this point, it's no longer just a war between Ukraine and Russia; it's a conflict between the EU and Russia. I'm not taking anyone's side, but I think this has been going on for far too long and makes no sense anymore. Nothing meaningful will be achieved, and things can only get even worse ...

The problem is that Ukraine depends on that support, and there's always a possibility that Europe could decide to stop providing aid at some point.

That is very unlikely to happen. Europe and the United States strongly support Ukraine and they would continue to do so. I know the U.S. have not made new commitments in terms of funding since 2024, but aid that were previously allocated are still being sent to Ukraine, so all good i guess. Then there is Europe, solidly providing their support and i don't see the possibility of that stopping.

No one wants to lose this war because it is not just a war for territory and resources. This is a war between two world orders. So, the scenario of the US and EU ceasing aid to Ukraine is quite unlikely in the short term.

However, the longer a war lasts, the greater the financial burden and not every country can maintain that level of aid indefinitely. Sooner or later, one side will have to give in and surrender first. We will have to wait and see which side is willing to make concessions first.

The financial burden has been there from the very beginning. Europe is spending more than ever, and that can be felt even in countries that are not involved in the war. Prices have been affected, and whenever a conflict breaks out, everyone ends up feeling the consequences in one way or another.We've drifted a bit away from the original topic, but overall, i think a compromise and a ceasefire would be the best solution

[justdimin]

Many economic analysts are asking this very question; can Russia sustain the war longer than the West can sustain support for Ukraine?
 
That becomes a battle of; demographics, technology, energy markets, political stability and sanction resilience.

What we're seeing Russia double on is that they can survive economically for years, yet concerns remain that the economy after the war will be characterized by; less innovation, increased isolation and a high dependence in China.

That's where economic analyst argue that the real economic loss may already be happening!

Russia is not, Putin does. He doesn't care about what's going to happen in 20 years, he cares about his own achievements and dreams. He thinks winning this war, and getting those lands, is all he wants, and if that means people live in poverty, so be it. He can justify that in his mind (and actually do believe it as well) that west is fighting them and people are doing badly for Russia wanting something fair. He wants to put a barrier between them and west, and Ukraine's lands are a good example for it.

And when he is told no, he thinks he can throw bodies at it, money at it, poverty at it, and hope to win it one day. Well west has enough money, Ukraine just needs men to fight that's it, and at this point, there are even people signing up for Ukraine from all over the world.

[DanWalker]

 At this point, it's no longer just a war between Ukraine and Russia; it's a conflict between the EU and Russia. I'm not taking anyone's side, but I think this has been going on for far too long and makes no sense anymore. Nothing meaningful will be achieved, and things can only get even worse ...

The proxy war in Ukraine is not just a war between the EU and Russia, but also between Nato and Russia, or more broadly, between two world orders. The US and EU are enthusiastically supporting Ukraine, while North Korea and China are also quietly supporting Russia.

For us, the war may seem meaningless, but for the great powers, it is one of the most important geopolitical chess games. One side is trying to maintain its dominant position, while the other seeks to change the existing order.

War in Iran, Ukraine, or global instability seems inevitable. It was bound to happen sooner or later, but unfortunately, it happened in our generation.

[logfiles]

War in Iran, Ukraine, or global instability seems inevitable. It was bound to happen sooner or later, but unfortunately, it happened in our generation.

Is there any recent generation where there has been no war? 

According to my little history that I studied, I don't remember any. To me, I think one of the human traits is war (fighting) for power, resources and territories. So don't say that our generation is unfortunate. The wars have always been there. The sad reality is constant loss of lives, displacement of people and disruption of economies.

[DanWalker]

Is there any recent generation where there has been no war? 

According to my little history that I studied, I don't remember any. To me, I think one of the human traits is war (fighting) for power, resources and territories. So don't say that our generation is unfortunate. The wars have always been there. The sad reality is constant loss of lives, displacement of people and disruption of economies.

You are right, maybe I was being a little selfish assuming our generation is somehow more unlucky than those before us when it comes to war. Because looking back at history, there has never been a generation that truly lived in complete peace.
Since WWII, the world has become less violent in scale, but under American dominance, hundreds of wars, large and small have still taken place.

War has never truly disappeared. It has always been a part of human history and human development.

[DrBeer]

....

I agree that no country can maintain a stable economy while bogged down in a protracted war, no matter how large their resource base. The weakening of the Russian economy is real, and it is inevitable. But saying that Russia is on the brink of economic collapse is something I'm skeptical of

As long as they can continue exporting oil, natural gas and other resources, and there are still many countries willing to do business with them. It is too early to talk about their economic collapse

The war in Ukraine is a war of attrition that has inflicted serious losses on both the EU, Russia, and Ukraine. If the Russian economy is gradually collapsing despite its abundant oil and natural resources, how will the EU and Ukraine cope with the situation?

"But saying that Russia is on the brink of economic collapse is something I'm skeptical of"


We could argue about this for a long time, but I suggest we refer to the OFFICIAL estimates from the Russian government.

I sourced this information from public, state-run media; it’s easy to verify.
1. GDP Revision and the Threat of Recession
In May–June 2026, economic agencies recorded a decline across a number of key sectors, including construction (fixed capital investment in the first quarter fell by 14.3% year-over-year). As a result, the government had to sharply downgrade its growth forecasts.
Fact: In its baseline scenario, the Ministry of Economic Development cut its GDP growth forecast for 2026 by three times-from the previous 1.3% to a symbolic 0.4%.
Statement by an official: Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed the revision of the figures in an interview: "We expect that in 2026 we will be able to maintain positive GDP growth of +0.4%. This will be followed by a period of recovery in growth rates starting at 1.4% in 2027.


2. Slowdown in economic activity and rate cut
Name: Elvira Sahipzadovna Nabiullina.
Position: Chair of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
Date: April 24, 2026.
Statement: "Today we decided to lower the key rate to 14.5% per annum. Economic activity is slowing down". Context and significance: The country’s top banker officially confirms the end of "overheating" and the transition to a phase of severe cooling. The economy in early 2026 turned out to be weaker than the regulator had anticipated, forcing the Central Bank to consistently lower the rate to prevent a deep recession.

3. Acknowledgment of a prolonged GDP decline and a shift in the timeline for growth
Name: Maksim Gennadievich Reshetnikov.
Position: Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.
Date: February 12, 2026.
Statement: "In the first half of 2026, the Russian economy will continue to slow down... the economy will return to growth at best by the end of 2026 or, more likely, in 2027". Context and significance: The Ministry of Economic Development officially acknowledged that sanctions pressure, labor shortages, and the consequences of the extremely high interest rates of 2024–2025 have driven the economy into stagnation. Later, in May 2026, the ministry officially lowered its annual GDP growth forecast for 2026 from the previous 1.3% to a symbolic 0.4%

4. The Formation of a "New Reality" with High Interest Rates
Name: Maxim Gennadievich Reshetnikov.
Position: Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.
Date: June 4, 2026.
Statement: "The contours of Russia’s emerging economic model imply a stronger ruble and the maintenance of relatively high interest rates... There are issues regarding the budget deficit, and the Central Bank is responding to this". Context and significance: The statement made at SPIEF 2026 underscores that businesses and banks will no longer see "cheap money".
Closing capital outflow channels is artificially preventing the ruble from collapsing, but the high cost of servicing accumulated debt is becoming the main systemic risk for commercial banks


5. Growth of the federal budget deficit
Full name: Anton Germanovich Siluanov.
Position: Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation.
Date: June 4, 2026.
Statement: The budget deficit in 2026 will "increase slightly" compared to the initial plan. Context and significance: Growth in government spending (primarily on the defense sector and social obligations) is outpacing revenue, despite tax reform and the introduction of a multi-tiered personal income tax scale. For the banking sector, this means that the government will continue to actively borrow money through OFZ bonds, absorbing available liquidity from the market.


6. Senior leadership raises inflation forecasts
Putin, Date: June 5, 2026.
Statement: "According to the forecast, inflation this year will approach 5.2%". Context and significance: The President publicly cited figures from the Ministry of Economic Development’s significantly downgraded May macroeconomic forecast (previously, authorities had assured that inflation would fall to the target of 4.0%). Price growth was only slowed at the cost of harshly suppressing domestic demand, and the projected 5.2% still exceeds the target

Key conclusions regarding the banking sector
Statements by officials reveal underlying concerns about the stability of banks:
Credit crunch: Due to the cancellation of mass subsidized mortgages since last July and cooling demand, banks are losing their margins. In the first months of 2026, there was a sharp reduction in the number of physical bank branches (approximately 600 offices were closed).
The problem of hidden defaults: Against the backdrop of falling GDP, the corporate sector is facing difficulties in servicing loans taken out at high interest rates. Technical defaults on bonds issued by major developers and manufacturing companies have become more frequent in the market, which directly impacts the balance sheets of creditor banks

We could go on and on....

Bottom line: if this information isn’t, as usual, sugarcoated, then the reality is quite grim.

At the same time, one must understand another very simple thing: more than 50% of Russia’s GDP consists of products with a lifespan of days or weeks, after which they vanish into thin air, becoming scrap metal, and bring no benefit whatsoever to the market or the economy. Imagine your country’s economy, where 50% of GDP consists, for example, of balloons that burst on their own after two weeks, and all the useful work is simply hanging in the air for two weeks.

[Fortify]

Many economic analysts are asking this very question; can Russia sustain the war longer than the West can sustain support for Ukraine?
 
That becomes a battle of; demographics, technology, energy markets, political stability and sanction resilience.

What we're seeing Russia double on is that they can survive economically for years, yet concerns remain that the economy after the war will be characterized by; less innovation, increased isolation and a high dependence in China.

That's where economic analyst argue that the real economic loss may already be happening!

There's no point in trying to find a rationale for this war, any more than there was trying to understand why Hitler started a world war back in 1938. Putin has a screw loose in his head, he's an old man who is getting more frail every day. We can make guesses why he started it: he claims that Russia is somehow entitled to Ukraine even though it's a country free to make it's own choices - if Russia was so great then every country in it's orbit would be more successful than they are. He wants to distract his people from the stagnation and economic mismanagement that comes from the cronyism that festers in his type of government (aka Oligarchs) which makes progress very slow. He's trying to exert more control, copying China in some ways, over his own people and sending millions of young men to die mean there will not be the strongest left to overthrow him - he was horrified seeing how Saddam Hussein and Colonel Gaddafi were destroyed at the end of their time being dictators.

[DrBeer]

Many economic analysts are asking this very question; can Russia sustain the war longer than the West can sustain support for Ukraine?
 
That becomes a battle of; demographics, technology, energy markets, political stability and sanction resilience.

What we're seeing Russia double on is that they can survive economically for years, yet concerns remain that the economy after the war will be characterized by; less innovation, increased isolation and a high dependence in China.

That's where economic analyst argue that the real economic loss may already be happening!

I will answer as a person born in the USSR, and observed its collapse. If very briefly, it will not stand, the only question is how it will end, and there are not many ways:
- the path of complete self-isolation and wild totalitarianism, following the example of North Korea.
- centrifugal movements and the collapse of the Russian Federation into separate republics, like the USSR.
Oh yes, you say the Russian economy is great and mighty, oil, gas, .....
 I will simply answer you - the USSR economy was MUCH more powerful, and importantly more self-sufficient as possible, plus it had a huge number of satellite countries, and a huge economic zone. Russia has none of that. Russia is like a younger brother in a poor degenerating family, who finishes the things and the old bicycle of the grandfather who is long gone....
 

[el kaka22]

USA does this as well. You think that Iran war has helped USA for the long term prosperity? It has crashed the oil supply structure and caused oil price to go up, which caused inflation all over the world and not just in the USA either. So let's be real when we are selecting sides.

All powerful nations are doing something shady and unfortunately there is nothing we can do about it. USA is doing it to Iran, and Russia is doing it to Ukraine. You may say "but but Ukraine is innocent, Iran is evil!!" and you will be half right, half wrong. Ukraine IS innocent, Russia IS evil, but Russians think they are right just like USA thinks that they are right.

[Swordsoffreedom]

We could argue about this for a long time, but I suggest we refer to the OFFICIAL estimates from the Russian government.

Even if you bring up thousands of additional references, like Western media has been doing over the past four year. Trust me, despite the difficulties facing the Russian economy, it will not collapse anytime soon and is unlikely to collapse

I would only believe it if one day there is news that they have stopped extracting and exporting oil and gas, and no one is willing to do business with them anymore

Yes, as long as this war goes on, the debate around Russia and Ukraine will never end. So it is better to let time answer because the future is unwritten, and there is no point trying to prove something right when nobody can guarantee anything.

[henmark]

Even if you bring up thousands of additional references, like Western media has been doing over the past four year. Trust me, despite the difficulties facing the Russian economy, it will not collapse anytime soon and is unlikely to collapse

I would only believe it if one day there is news that they have stopped extracting and exporting oil and gas, and no one is willing to do business with them anymore

Yes, as long as this war goes on, the debate around Russia and Ukraine will never end. So it is better to let time answer because the future is unwritten, and there is no point trying to prove something right when nobody can guarantee anything.

They have "allies" in this war too, even if not actually during the war itself, they are allies financially and that means they will always find someone to sell to. And if not, then they just won't sel it. So they always have China, who is more than willing to buy all the energy that they can, they need energy like crazy, and that means oil, gas, minerals whatever they get, they will sell to China.

And not like China pays very little because Russia is forced to, they pay nearly full price (well wholesale discount applies). So believe me, russia will not face "north korea" levels of isolation. They are fine, sure they have economical problems, but lets not act as if other nations do not have it, every nation has economical problems.

[DrBeer]

We could argue about this for a long time, but I suggest we refer to the OFFICIAL estimates from the Russian government.

Even if you bring up thousands of additional references, like Western media has been doing over the past four year. Trust me, despite the difficulties facing the Russian economy, it will not collapse anytime soon and is unlikely to collapse

I would only believe it if one day there is news that they have stopped extracting and exporting oil and gas, and no one is willing to do business with them anymore

Yes, as long as this war goes on, the debate around Russia and Ukraine will never end. So it is better to let time answer because the future is unwritten, and there is no point trying to prove something right when nobody can guarantee anything.

Well, I'll tell you, Hitler's Germany's economy was working even in May 1945, they had factories working until the surrender was signed on May 8, 1945, they produced shells and ammunition, etc. 
The question is different, and the best example is the USSR, whose economy really worked at the time of its collapse. But the quality of the economy was such that the patience of the population ran out, and people simply refused to live in such conditions. I can tell you a lot, as a real witness of those events that happened !  If you think that by "the economy collapsed" I mean that it just stopped, you are wrong! Remember the example of 1917, when simply the crisis of food supply was the trigger for the overthrow of the Tsar and the subsequent fall of the Russian Empire. The economy also worked, it did not collapse to a complete halt.

[DrBeer]

Here’s an interesting inside scoop from a country with a "stable, unshakable economy". Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the Central Bank, has been removed from her post without any official announcement.
She hasn’t been "on the air" for 1.5 weeks now; "economic forums" are taking place without her, and there are active changes happening in the upper echelons of the Russian Central Bank.
"Why her?" you might ask. Elvira Nabiullina is indeed a highly professional player in this market. And that is precisely why she is categorically opposed to and stands against Putin’s hysterics about the need to finance the war by any means necessary, without regard for the banking system or the economy.
To be more precise: she is categorically opposed to massively cranking up the printing press, because she remembers the example of the USSR’s final agony and understands perfectly well how the economy works and what laws govern it.

The forecast is that if she is indeed ousted and replaced with puppet "leaders"-such as Putrushev’s son, or Brortnikov, or Fradkov, within 1–3 months, Russia’s military-industrial complex will be flooded with money. Freshly printed money. Then a tailspin that, within 6–12 months, will drown the Russian economy in runaway inflation. No, there won’t be a wasteland there; there won’t be a functioning economy, and there will be "a pathetic parody of the USSR in a state of pre-death convulsions"


P.S. Question: why is there no gasoline in Crimea, the so-called DPR, and some southern regions of the Russian Federation, given that
 
- the Ukrainian army is fleeing, and the "second army of the world" is seizing thousands of square kilometers of Ukraine every day, destroying the Air Force, drone units, and similar subunits, thousands of NATO generals, even before they’re formed, and already 10,352% of all produced HIMARS. Again, according to the Russian General Staff and putin himself
- "Russia is the largest supplier of oil and gasoline to the market"? Well, at least that’s what was said at the economic forum a week ago

[Synchronice]

Many economic analysts are asking this very question; can Russia sustain the war longer than the West can sustain support for Ukraine?
 
That becomes a battle of; demographics, technology, energy markets, political stability and sanction resilience.

What we're seeing Russia double on is that they can survive economically for years, yet concerns remain that the economy after the war will be characterized by; less innovation, increased isolation and a high dependence in China.

That's where economic analyst argue that the real economic loss may already be happening!

The GDP of US + EU is 21 times bigger than the GDP of Russia, The population of US + EU is 5.5x bigger compared to Russia. NATO is much stronger than Russia. Western countries are much more technologically advanced than Russia and I would say that the innovation comes mostly from Western countries, the western education is what made the world more advanced. Now anyone, tell me, what's the possibility of Russia sustaining the war longer than the West can sustain support for Ukraine? Russia's population is also dying in this war and they are mostly young people and those with the ability of work. This is a devastating for the country, especially long-term. This war is a huge hit on Russia long-term.

[Mate2237]

Many economic analysts are asking this very question; can Russia sustain the war longer than the West can sustain support for Ukraine?
 
That becomes a battle of; demographics, technology, energy markets, political stability and sanction resilience.

What we're seeing Russia double on is that they can survive economically for years, yet concerns remain that the economy after the war will be characterized by; less innovation, increased isolation and a high dependence in China.

That's where economic analyst argue that the real economic loss may already be happening!

The GDP of US + EU is 21 times bigger than the GDP of Russia, The population of US + EU is 5.5x bigger compared to Russia. NATO is much stronger than Russia. Western countries are much more technologically advanced than Russia and I would say that the innovation comes mostly from Western countries, the western education is what made the world more advanced. Now anyone, tell me, what's the possibility of Russia sustaining the war longer than the West can sustain support for Ukraine? Russia's population is also dying in this war and they are mostly young people and those with the ability of work. This is a devastating for the country, especially long-term. This war is a huge hit on Russia long-term.

No doubt Russia will have a long term effect on the Russian economy. Because warging a war of this magnitude for this long surely have a negative effects on the Russian economy. Because war is costly and it takes a lot of time and resources to sustain a war. Already the Russian economy has been hit hard by the effects of this war. War is not something that no nation should plan on engaging because life's are not the only once that are lost but resources and economic strangulation takes place.


I believe that the effects of this war will be felt by Russia in the next four to five years, because for now Russia may not be too disturbed Russia in any way because they are economically more stronger and prepared enough before starting this war with Ukraine.

[DrBeer]

Is there any recent generation where there has been no war? 

According to my little history that I studied, I don't remember any. To me, I think one of the human traits is war (fighting) for power, resources and territories. So don't say that our generation is unfortunate. The wars have always been there. The sad reality is constant loss of lives, displacement of people and disruption of economies.

You are right, maybe I was being a little selfish assuming our generation is somehow more unlucky than those before us when it comes to war. Because looking back at history, there has never been a generation that truly lived in complete peace.
Since WWII, the world has become less violent in scale, but under American dominance, hundreds of wars, large and small have still taken place.

War has never truly disappeared. It has always been a part of human history and human development.

Could you provide a list here of the "hundreds of wars started by the U.S." since World War II? Preferably with examples of when they occupied or seized foreign territories? In response, I’ll provide a list of wars started by the USSR/Russia. Oh, and let’s “forget” that it was Germany, together with the USSR, that started World War II against the will of the world, shall we?

[Minor Miner]

Many economic analysts are asking this very question; can Russia sustain the war longer than the West can sustain support for Ukraine?
 
That becomes a battle of; demographics, technology, energy markets, political stability and sanction resilience.

What we're seeing Russia double on is that they can survive economically for years, yet concerns remain that the economy after the war will be characterized by; less innovation, increased isolation and a high dependence in China.

That's where economic analyst argue that the real economic loss may already be happening!

The GDP of US + EU is 21 times bigger than the GDP of Russia, The population of US + EU is 5.5x bigger compared to Russia. NATO is much stronger than Russia. Western countries are much more technologically advanced than Russia and I would say that the innovation comes mostly from Western countries, the western education is what made the world more advanced. Now anyone, tell me, what's the possibility of Russia sustaining the war longer than the West can sustain support for Ukraine? Russia's population is also dying in this war and they are mostly young people and those with the ability of work. This is a devastating for the country, especially long-term. This war is a huge hit on Russia long-term.

It cannot be denied that this war is a heavy blow to Russia economy. It would be dishonest to say that their economy is stable or growing while being in a prolonged conflict lasting many years.

I cannot tell you how long they will drag this war out. But one fact is that they are still holding up after many year of conflict, instead of collapsing as the West predicted. And I think that if Nato does not want to end the war, Russia would hesitate to prolong it further. In the end, the longer the war continues, the greater the risk of Ukraine losing more territory.