Bitcoin Stayed Strong During the War — What Happens if Peace Comes?

[The Cryptovator]

Though the Bitcoin market is moving normally, after publishing this news, the US naval blockade on Iran ‘will now be lifted’ — as he huddles in the Situation Room for ‘final determination’ on the deal, Bitcoin seems to act positively. I admit this movement is really normal for Bitcoin, but right after the news, it really acted on this uptrend movement.

So are we stucked into the Hormuz deal for another Bitcoin bull run? Doesn't mean Bitcoin has to break ATH for this Hormuz news, even if it's been permanently solved. But do you think if the war ended, then we may see another bull trend? I know Bitcoin hasn't dumped significantly even during the war, but do you think Bitcoin is stuck for the war?

[BlackHatCoiner]

I think people overestimate how much war news actually moves Bitcoin. It held up because the macro picture (liquidity, ETF flows, halving cycle) matters way more than headlines from the Middle East. Peace might give a short relief pop, but it's not the trigger for a real bull run.

If the war ending was that bullish, the war itself should've crashed it harder, and it didn't. Bitcoin doesn't care about Hormuz, it's just following its own cycles.

[Bitcoin-Forever]

Maybe most times that we even think that bitcoin is being moved by some of these economical instability are just a coincidence, because the change they cost to the market are not permanent but the temporary one, having the understanding that bitcoin is a volatile digital currency, it is prone to rise during war or fall as the influence may impact on the market demand and supply, therefore, literally we can see that during peace the market still rises and fall but people don't create the FOMO they give during the crisis with the expectation that trigger the market to react.

[OcTradism]

Though the Bitcoin market is moving normally, after publishing this news, the US naval blockade on Iran ‘will now be lifted’ — as he huddles in the Situation Room for ‘final determination’ on the deal, Bitcoin seems to act positively. I admit this movement is really normal for Bitcoin, but right after the news, it really acted on this uptrend movement.

So are we stucked into the Hormuz deal for another Bitcoin bull run? Doesn't mean Bitcoin has to break ATH for this Hormuz news, even if it's been permanently solved. But do you think if the war ended, then we may see another bull trend? I know Bitcoin hasn't dumped significantly even during the war, but do you think Bitcoin is stuck for the war?

Between negative news and positive news, it's clearly that positive news such as a peace deal (official one for execution) is better for the market than any negative news. It's clearly but sometimes the market does not react too considerable with positive news, sometimes even responses oppositely or neutrally if there was speculation about that deal a long time before it becomes official. Like Bitcoin Spot ETF effects that appeared months before approvals in January 2024.

In addition, I believe that effects if positive from a successful peace deal will only short term, while in long term Bitcoin market will work with its own market cycle that is four year. I believe that the peace deal won't change the market cycle and won't be enough to trigger a new bull run of a new market cycle too early.
https://charts.bitbo.io/yearly-candles/

[YOSHIE]

I know Bitcoin hasn't dumped significantly even during the war, but do you think Bitcoin is stuck for the war?

Personally, I probably don't want to involve the Strait of Hormuz or the Iran vs. war. The US is currently concerned with falling Bitcoin prices or other reasons that have to do with Crypto or the Strait of Hormuz.

We may understand and have seen wars that have occurred and lasted for a long time, for example Iraq and others, but where the price of Bitcoin goes down and up, I see no effect, where when the situation goes down it stays down and vice versa.

I think and why do I say that the decline or rise in Bitcoin prices is not influenced by the current situation of the Strait of Hormuz/war, because Bitcoin is used all over the world, investors are free to make purchases anywhere, including in countries that are not at war.
Maybe currently, the condition or situation of the crypto market is in a bear market position, not yet heading towards a bull market, the time will come when that might also happen, it should not be influenced by the cessation of war or ongoing war.

[BitMaxz]

I rely on technical analysis and do not trade when there is news or an upcoming event because some of them may cause the BTC price to shift to the other side.

However, I believe the war will have a minor impact on the BTC. We shouldn't rely too much on war news because the only major factor influencing the war is crude oil, not Bitcoin.
The only event or news that could have a significant impact on the BTC price is FED rates and inflation; this is the only thing I've noticed that affects the crypto.

For the current chart, using the 4-hour time frame and the Fibonacci level, the BTC price is currently below the golden zone area, suggesting that the price may shift to bullish. The only issue is that we are still bearish on the daily time frame for me; the higher time frame remains more important than simply using the 4-hour time frame. Remember that healthy trends always have retracements.

[Dunamisx]

People tried to cause fear whenever there is a tragic event that happened because they know that it may trigger for the market to react, but when there is peace they tend not to follow the incident of breaking news to trigger the market to react, instead they believe in the natural way of the market demand and supply for the price, but after a long war and there is calmness, it is expected that the market should also react to it, and if such happened people will not take it serious because it wasn't a tragic incident that we stir the internet as usual.

[Cryptomultiplier]

Though the Bitcoin market is moving normally, after publishing this news, the US naval blockade on Iran ‘will now be lifted’ — as he huddles in the Situation Room for ‘final determination’ on the deal, Bitcoin seems to act positively. I admit this movement is really normal for Bitcoin, but right after the news, it really acted on this uptrend movement.

So are we stucked into the Hormuz deal for another Bitcoin bull run? Doesn't mean Bitcoin has to break ATH for this Hormuz news, even if it's been permanently solved. But do you think if the war ended, then we may see another bull trend? I know Bitcoin hasn't dumped significantly even during the war, but do you think Bitcoin is stuck for the war?

I don't think Bitcoin is or was in any word, stuck because of the Iran -israel/U.S war. Bitcoin was already existing before it became like a solution of payment for passage through the Strait of Hormuz and now that the issues are being resolved, it still won't mean Bitcoin will hit a new ATH.
Well, now I think with the war nations coming to a resolution, Bitcoin will still trade freely according to the supply and demand dynamics it was designed for.

[Ronsbit]

Here is the simple Logic;

War + Panic = Price decrease

Peace + Resolution = Price increase

This is just the situation of the current Iran and the US war and tussles for power scheme. Each country causing a fluctuating movement in the price of Bitcoin with their scheme affecting the Bitcoin and Crypto market in general.  These actions from them seems to look like they  are manipulating the crypto market for their own gains but in reality conflicts always cause a standstill in economic growth and development of a place and this is just similar to the crypto market also and the actions from bother ends affects the Bitcoin market in both ways and that is how the market functions.

[Pandorak]

I think people overestimate how much war news actually moves Bitcoin. It held up because the macro picture (liquidity, ETF flows, halving cycle) matters way more than headlines from the Middle East. Peace might give a short relief pop, but it's not the trigger for a real bull run.

If the war ending was that bullish, the war itself should've crashed it harder, and it didn't. Bitcoin doesn't care about Hormuz, it's just following its own cycles.

I agree with you that many people are overestimating the impact of the war in the Middle East on Bitcoin prices. Geopolitics can indeed trigger short term volatility by influencing market sentiment, but it is not the primary factor driving Bitcoin price surges. In fact, if the war were truly the primary factor, the downward impact should have been much greater as the conflict escalated. But no, this has only caused temporary volatility, and Bitcoin continues to move according to its own market cycles and structure. Liquidity, institutional capital flows, ETFs, and the halving cycle appear to be more dominant factors than the war in the Middle East.

[Faisal2202]

I think people overestimate how much war news actually moves Bitcoin. It held up because the macro picture (liquidity, ETF flows, halving cycle) matters way more than headlines from the Middle East. Peace might give a short relief pop, but it's not the trigger for a real bull run.

If the war ending was that bullish, the war itself should've crashed it harder, and it didn't. Bitcoin doesn't care about Hormuz, it's just following its own cycles.

The war will end soon, but it won’t have that huge impact then because the sentiment is driven by the war while it is ongoing. So what we are buying or selling now on the basis of the war is the only impact we are going to see. So when the war ends, we may not get a huge pump, and that could be a disappointment for us.

Yes, BTC does not care about the Hormuz situation. Instead, BTC has allowed Iran to avoid taking certain agreements with the US because it provides a decentralized way to receive payments. Otherwise, their funds would have been blocked by the US, and their stablecoins have also been seized recently. If there were no BTC, then the situation would have been much harder for Iran.

[ZAINmalik75]

So are we stucked into the Hormuz deal for another Bitcoin bull run? Doesn't mean Bitcoin has to break ATH for this Hormuz news, even if it's been permanently solved. But do you think if the war ended, then we may see another bull trend? I know Bitcoin hasn't dumped significantly even during the war, but do you think Bitcoin is stuck for the war?

The market has not recovered much; it has just risen roughly $1k from the morning lows to $73,500, but it happened within minutes after the news came out. So those who were saying that war news would not have a direct impact on BTC price are proven wrong here. But the situation is still very complicated, because whatever Trump says, Iranian authorities quickly contradict Trump's claims, which puts the situation back where it was in the first place.

The bullish news so far out of this war is the BTC-settled maritime insurance platform that Iran has introduced, and you also covered a topic on that. This is a real use case of BTC, where no one can halt or freeze anyone's account. They did start their agenda against Binance, but they will be proven wrong as far as I think, otherwise, they will be fined.

In short, the price of BTC has not been affected much by the war as much as the war has created a ceiling on sentiment.

[joniboini]

The bullish news so far out of this war is the BTC-settled maritime insurance platform that Iran has introduced, and you also covered a topic on that. This is a real use case of BTC, where no one can halt or freeze anyone's account.

Maybe this is just a coincidence, but on my news feed I just saw an article saying that US froze over more than 1 billion worth of crypto txs from Iran. Maybe this is just how the government tries to counter each other, but it definitely puts Bitcoin or crypto in the spotlight. One could argue that taking control of exchanges will be the norm and Bitcoin won't be free from that. Whether that will affect how the market behaves is still a question.

That being said, I'm sure there'll be some new stuffs that fuels another fomo for crypto without geopolitics, although it's getting harder to imagine something like that when so many countries have economic struggles.

[Zaguru12]

Here is the simple Logic;

War + Panic = Price decrease

Peace + Resolution = Price increase

This is just the situation of the current Iran and the US war and tussles for power scheme. Each country causing a fluctuating movement in the price of Bitcoin with their scheme affecting the Bitcoin and Crypto market in general.  These actions from them seems to look like they  are manipulating the crypto market for their own gains but in reality conflicts always cause a standstill in economic growth and development of a place and this is just similar to the crypto market also and the actions from bother ends affects the Bitcoin market in both ways and that is how the market functions.

But do you know that the bitcoin market didn’t actually follow this pattern this time around, I can recall that the war between Iran vs US/Israel started in 26 February and on that the price of bitcoin was actually $67k and the market actually just reacted by dropping a little bit and then since has been bullish all round with it hitting $81k this month, going by this trend it’s clear that instead of the market to follow the usual pattern of staying bearish it actually goes against that. This means that while this events have their influence in the market they are don’t the main trend determinant.

Now that peace is about to begin the question is will the market goes with the usual trend when there is peace and be bullish once again or it will do the opposite. For me the market will just do it self

[Furious 7]

That little bit of volatility is just purely due to temporary panic and when it is taken as a normal thing in the end the reaction will remain the same and bitcoin will remain as usual where every year the increase will continue to occur. Although later we will see peace I think the rise will also be temporary as the volatility remains and it will just be a normal reaction that is perceived as a positive trend.

Ups and downs happen all the time not only when wars happen especially in this case I prefer to make the bullish and bearish fatokan as a reference as for the ups and downs just because of the reactions that occur due to panic or hype although it can trigger further continuation but it may only be temporary not for long-term progress.

[Jatiluhung]

It was actually the impact of the geopolitical situation that prevented Bitcoin from rising further some time ago. Several recent negative news stories have also caused Bitcoin to experience another correction. However, Bitcoin remains strong compared to the past.
Bitcoin prices have always been able to recover just as quickly.

However, in the ETF market, it appears that in May there were indeed more outflows than inflows.

Take, for example, BlackRock’s iBIT, which has been selling off more of its Bitcoin holdings lately. This does indeed signal a bit of panic among traders there, doesn’t it?


https://bitbo.io/treasuries/blackrock-ibit/

[Hamza2424]

So are we stucked into the Hormuz deal for another Bitcoin bull run? Doesn't mean Bitcoin has to break ATH for this Hormuz news, even if it's been permanently solved. But do you think if the war ended, then we may see another bull trend? I know Bitcoin hasn't dumped significantly even during the war, but do you think Bitcoin is stuck for the war?

I am more happy to hear the reduction in oil rates in my country than this naval blockage news haha, but you are right bro, the pump was real. The news had an impact. I think, yeah, war is one of those puzzles that has to be solved in order for things to move forward because we are too focused on one thing, which is war and the Strait of Hormuz, that we have almost forgotten about the Epstein files even haha. Some people even say that the war is to distract people from talking about the Epstein files haha.

Anyway, that’s another thing. But I think the end of the war is necessary for BTC to move into the next phase. Although we are in a bear market and can’t expect anything major in a bear market, it is still doing quite well so far.

[sokani]

I think people overestimate how much war news actually moves Bitcoin. It held up because the macro picture (liquidity, ETF flows, halving cycle) matters way more than headlines from the Middle East. Peace might give a short relief pop, but it's not the trigger for a real bull run.

If the war ending was that bullish, the war itself should've crashed it harder, and it didn't. Bitcoin doesn't care about Hormuz, it's just following its own cycles.

Totally agree with this. Sadly, some persons are believing the narrative that the war in Iran is the reason the price of Bitcoin is down, but they forgot that the Russia/Ukraine war has been going on for years, and yet Bitcoin was able to attain an ATH.

If war had so much influence on the price of Bitcoin, it wouldn't have hit an ATH. The price would have been down from when the war erupted till this moment.

[Vaskiy]

Whenever there is a war bitcoin undergoes sudden dump in price and bounce back. During the Ukraine Russia war due to the panic and sell off price dropped close to $33k from $39k when it was predicted to go high above $40. Later the usage of bitcoin increased as the people around the country began using bitcoin as the source as well as for accumulating wealth over the banks. Many used bitcoin for their daily needs as the people close to the war region weren't able to use the banks. Soon within a week the price reached above $44k. Similar is the market during most war encounter. If peace comes, the market moves in the similar way

[Swordsoffreedom]

Totally agree with this. Sadly, some persons are believing the narrative that the war in Iran is the reason the price of Bitcoin is down, but they forgot that the Russia/Ukraine war has been going on for years, and yet Bitcoin was able to attain an ATH.

If war had so much influence on the price of Bitcoin, it wouldn't have hit an ATH. The price would have been down from when the war erupted till this moment.

Bitcoin is only a small part of the economy, and war has a significant impact on the global economy. So, Bitcoin is not immune to the effect of war and geopolitical instability. However, those effect are mostly short term. Because, like any other asset, Bitcoin also has its own cycle and is affected by many different factor, rather than being driven solely by war or any single factor.
 
Therefore, Bitcoin could grow if significant capital flows into the market, demand increases, or adoption continues to expand, even while war or geopolitical tensions are taking place.