Bitcoin Stayed Strong During the War — What Happens if Peace Comes?

[Nothingtodo]

From the past experience of Bitcoin history, we have learned that when a discussed event in the world has a negative impact, the price of Bitcoin tends to fall downward. For example, in the past, Bitcoin has been dumped at a significant rate in as many wars as there have been. This time, the negative trend in the price of Bitcoin has also been observed in the joint war between Iran and Israel-America and is still ongoing. In the meantime, every time there has been a ceasefire, the Bitcoin market has temporarily increased. If a peace agreement is reached in the future and if it is effective, then we will definitely see a small bull run. But it may be above or around $ 100k.

[Powerjumboo]

Though the Bitcoin market is moving normally, after publishing this news, the US naval blockade on Iran ‘will now be lifted’ — as he huddles in the Situation Room for ‘final determination’ on the deal, Bitcoin seems to act positively. I admit this movement is really normal for Bitcoin, but right after the news, it really acted on this uptrend movement.

So are we stucked into the Hormuz deal for another Bitcoin bull run? Doesn't mean Bitcoin has to break ATH for this Hormuz news, even if it's been permanently solved. But do you think if the war ended, then we may see another bull trend? I know Bitcoin hasn't dumped significantly even during the war, but do you think Bitcoin is stuck for the war?

The war did not stop the Bitcoin market because we saw that when Iran, Israel and the United States were at war, the Bitcoin market was moving at its own pace. The Bitcoin market was not responsible for any war situation. When the war was going on, we saw Bitcoin going up and also dumping, and when there were meetings for a ceasefire and the war was opposed, but Bitcoin still moved at its own pace. Now, even if the Strait of Hormuz is said and whatever peace is said, we will see the Bitcoin market moving at its own pace, but maybe after the news is published, the market will take a slightly upward trend.

[Zlantann]

So are we stucked into the Hormuz deal for another Bitcoin bull run? Doesn't mean Bitcoin has to break ATH for this Hormuz news, even if it's been permanently solved. But do you think if the war ended, then we may see another bull trend? I know Bitcoin hasn't dumped significantly even during the war, but do you think Bitcoin is stuck for the war?

I am not expecting Bitcoin to hit an ATH even if the war in the Middle East ends. The price of Bitcoin is influenced by other political and economic factors besides the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. I also think that the global market is used to the situation in the Middle East, so current developments are not having much effect on the market. I think we are in a bear market and this has made me not expect the price to hit another ATH. We have already entered the bear market, so traders should be prepared for any price movement.

[Smartprofit]

In my opinion, there is no reason to hope for an end to the war between Iran and the United States (Israel). 🙋

And, in general, have Israel and the United States ever declared war on Iran? And without an official start to the war, in my opinion, it is very difficult to officially declare its end...

What does the American leadership want? They want Iran's capitulation, Iran's relinquishing control of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's complete abandonment of its plans to develop nuclear weapons.

What does the Israeli leadership want? They want regime change in Iran, Iran's demilitarization, revenge for the murdered Israelis, and the accession of a new democratic Iran to the Abraham Accords.

What does the Iranian leadership want? They want the preservation of the existing political system, revenge for the murdered Iranians, a steady stream of revenue from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, Israel's capitulation, and the development of fully functional nuclear weapons.

In other words, all sides in the conflict have completely opposing goals... At the same time, all parties to the conflict have the resources to continue the war. In this situation, in my opinion, there is no reason to believe that this war will end anytime soon (unfortunately).🧑‍💻

[HONDACD125]

Though the Bitcoin market is moving normally, after publishing this news, the US naval blockade on Iran ‘will now be lifted’ — as he huddles in the Situation Room for ‘final determination’ on the deal, Bitcoin seems to act positively. I admit this movement is really normal for Bitcoin, but right after the news, it really acted on this uptrend movement.

So are we stucked into the Hormuz deal for another Bitcoin bull run? Doesn't mean Bitcoin has to break ATH for this Hormuz news, even if it's been permanently solved. But do you think if the war ended, then we may see another bull trend? I know Bitcoin hasn't dumped significantly even during the war, but do you think Bitcoin is stuck for the war?

We all know that this market mostly reacts to both good and bad news, so it is surely going to have some positive effects on the market if the war ends. However, I don't expect too much because as you mentioned it yourself, the war never really made the market crash, everything was completely normal even when the war was at its peak, economies of most countries were getting affected because of the war since they were not able to get their shipments of oil and everything, which caused increments in the prices of everything, etc.

So now when the war ends, it will not bring that big of a wave in the market, but we surely see some positivity and positive movements from cryptocurrencies because fear will be low, and people will be more confident in buying since now they won't be worried about the market dropping further only because of war, even though it wasn't happening but we know that fear mostly stays even if something didn't happen, that's just how things go in financial markets.

[Shadiq]

Since Bitcoin was not affected after the war started and during the war, we may not see a big change even if there is a peace agreement.
Bitcoin's price depends on ETF flow or demand. If the peace agreement on Hormuz increases demand for Bitcoin, then Bitcoin may be bullish. But I don't think it will have a big impact. We can see small movements.

[ingiltere]

I think you're placing too much importance on these war reports. After all, this isn't a world war. It's just 2-3 countries fighting. Countries have always fought each other. There have been very few periods in history without war. This doesn't directly affect the global economy. It won't affect Bitcoin at all. Bitcoin won't drop just because a strait has been closed. Trade continues around the world. There's no obstacle to buying or selling Bitcoin, there's no obstacle to its use. We must not let manipulators stoke fear.

[Ronsbit]

But do you know that the bitcoin market didn’t actually follow this pattern this time around, I can recall that the war between Iran vs US/Israel started in 26 February and on that the price of bitcoin was actually $67k and the market actually just reacted by dropping a little bit and then since has been bullish all round with it hitting $81k this month, going by this trend it’s clear that instead of the market to follow the usual pattern of staying bearish it actually goes against that. This means that while this events have their influence in the market they are don’t the main trend determinant.

Now that peace is about to begin the question is will the market goes with the usual trend when there is peace and be bullish once again or it will do the opposite. For me the market will just do it self

It is true that the market is becoming resistant to factors that could trigger a decline in price value but actually, the Iran war caused a little price shake but recovered immediately and I noticed that whenever there is any little positive news with respect to the war ceasefire, the price jumps up a bit and gradually it achieved the price it increased to before the current market action's.

[dzungmobile]

It is true that the market is becoming resistant to factors that could trigger a decline in price value but actually, the Iran war caused a little price shake but recovered immediately and I noticed that whenever there is any little positive news with respect to the war ceasefire, the price jumps up a bit and gradually it achieved the price it increased to before the current market action's.

Value and price are different things and how did you put price and value together as price value?
It only shows that you did not understand about value and price, as well as the differences between them.

Bitcoin did not die but it has not only survived in this market through many years, market cycles and chaos, but also has grown up very strongly because of its value, very high value. The Bitcoin value has increased with time together with Bitcoin adoption from increasing Bitcoin mining hashrate, decentralized Bitcoin nodes, to Bitcoin acceptance from exchanges to merchants and other places in societies globally including better legality for Bitcoin.

From value, Bitcoin price gets benefited and the price has grown up and currently has very high price as we all see.

[yhiaali3]

It is certain that the war between the United States and Iran has an impact on Bitcoin, and that the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz negatively affects all markets, including Bitcoin. I believe that ending the war and opening the strait will have a positive impact on the rise in the price of Bitcoin, but I do not expect it to be the key to achieving a new ATH.

I believe the market will recover and the price will improve, but I don't expect us to reach a new peak during this time because we are still in a downward cycle and it may continue beyond the next halving, so I expect us to see a temporary rise but not a large one.

[JeffBrad12]

Yes bull will come again only if oil is going down, making people bearish and reallocate their capital elsewhere which could be Bitcoin and when people realized Gold isn't that good anymore to hold and move to other asset class like Bitcoin.
I however think that bitcoin is doing its own cycle like usual, regardless of the war. I personally don't see how war can affect bitcoin for better or good at this point. I'm even more bullish if Kevin Warsh is pushing for a rate cut.
Regardless, a peace is a peace and it is better if the world could be at peace because war is holding people from investing one way or another due to anxiousness.

[Z-tight]

I think some people forget that BTC price was ~ $65k when the war in Iran started, and right now, with the war still ongoing, at least in the Strait of Hormuz, BTC price is ~ $74k. So, it is up around 13% since the start of the war, it doesn't look like the war has any impact, other than the quick drop at the very start of the war.

The end of the war would not be the start of a bull run, it could create a small momentum that would increase the price. But the war is not so significant in BTC's movement, for its end to start a significant rise in price.

[Luzin]

I think some people forget that BTC price was ~ $65k when the war in Iran started, and right now, with the war still ongoing, at least in the Strait of Hormuz, BTC price is ~ $74k. So, it is up around 13% since the start of the war, it doesn't look like the war has any impact, other than the quick drop at the very start of the war.

Remember the US froze Fiat transactions, which caused Iran to use Bitcoin to receive foreign funding. This situation certainly increases the world's trust in Bitcoin as a means of transaction. Remember how Iran also collected insurance for the Strait of Hormuz using Bitcoin. In war, Bitcoin proves itself to be usable as a means of transaction once agreed upon.

The end of the war would not be the start of a bull run, it could create a small momentum that would increase the price. But the war is not so significant in BTC's movement, for its end to start a significant rise in price.

I think it won't cause a big increase. Because wartime conditions do not have a significant impact on movements during the war. What I am waiting for is Warsh's decision on interest rates.

[Agbe]

Bitcoin doesn't care about Hormuz, it's just following its own cycles.

I think this clear enough to understand everything about bitcoin and war. I don't know if any of the influencers of bitcoin is participating in the middle war or dealing with oil through the Strait of Hormuz. And if not then bitcoin has nothing to do with Iran war. But if bitcoin is attached to oil for it growth then we can say yes the war is affecting bitcoin. If any of the conflicting countries have taken bitcoin as their National Currency (Legal Tender) then the war would have affected bitcoin but none has adopted it. As for me bitcoin is just on it own movement of the cycle of 4 years. I have analyze this in many threads. If bitcoin will hit All Time High, it will be next year and after next year like what happened last time.

[Taskford]

It is certain that the war between the United States and Iran has an impact on Bitcoin, and that the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz negatively affects all markets, including Bitcoin. I believe that ending the war and opening the strait will have a positive impact on the rise in the price of Bitcoin, but I do not expect it to be the key to achieving a new ATH.

I believe the market will recover and the price will improve, but I don't expect us to reach a new peak during this time because we are still in a downward cycle and it may continue beyond the next halving, so I expect us to see a temporary rise but not a large one.

If that war ends? then Strait of Hormuz will open back again, this will provably give an ease to the past pressure on the market brought by those unwanted event. Then maybe the panic or bad sentiments will gone then it gives Bitcoin a great opportunity to rise again.

But chances to trigger another possible ATH is unlikely going to happen in that situation. Since what we provably see is the correction phase on which Bitcoin will slowly recovers. We might see some series of good rallies will came and again then maybe the real thing that can pull Bitcoin unto that state on which it hit again a new ATH is on next possible halving.

[Ayers]

It is certain that the war between the United States and Iran has an impact on Bitcoin, and that the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz negatively affects all markets, including Bitcoin. I believe that ending the war and opening the strait will have a positive impact on the rise in the price of Bitcoin, but I do not expect it to be the key to achieving a new ATH.

If that war ends? then Strait of Hormuz will open back again, this will provably give an ease to the past pressure on the market brought by those unwanted event. Then maybe the panic or bad sentiments will gone then it gives Bitcoin a great opportunity to rise again.

In theory, that is what should happen. If the war end, investor sentiment will become more positive and capital will flow into the market.

However, things do not always turn out that way. Sometimes the market is more irrational than we imagine. Good news does not always push prices up, and bad news does not always pull prices down.

Just look at what has happened over the past two month. Despite the war, Bitcoin price climbed from $60k to $83k before pulling back to its current level of $72k. Meanwhile, gold has been falling consistently over the same period.
It can be seen that financial market do not follow any fixed pattern. Therefore, do not bet everything on a single scenario without a backup plan.

[icebar]

If the Middle East is stable, it will definitely have a positive impact on the price of Bitcoin.  It should not be thought that the end of the war means that Bitcoin will be able to reach its all time high again. Bitcoin price does not depend only on the war situation. Rather, the rise and fall of Bitcoin price depends on the US Fed interest rates and the increase in investment in ETF platforms, the global economic situation and investor sentiment, etc. However, if the war is over, a confidence will definitely be created among investors of all levels, which will play an important role in the increase in Bitcoin price. In the current situation, there is a doubt whether Bitcoin will be able to reach its all time high again. Although there is no significant change in Bitcoin price at present, it will definitely be able to reach its all time high after the upcoming halving.

[wmiran]

Though the Bitcoin market is moving normally, after publishing this news, the US naval blockade on Iran ‘will now be lifted’ — as he huddles in the Situation Room for ‘final determination’ on the deal, Bitcoin seems to act positively. I admit this movement is really normal for Bitcoin, but right after the news, it really acted on this uptrend movement.

So are we stucked into the Hormuz deal for another Bitcoin bull run? Doesn't mean Bitcoin has to break ATH for this Hormuz news, even if it's been permanently solved. But do you think if the war ended, then we may see another bull trend? I know Bitcoin hasn't dumped significantly even during the war, but do you think Bitcoin is stuck for the war?

Bitcoin isn’t “stuck” to any war or single event. Short-term moves can react to news and liquidity shifts, but long-term trends are driven more by macro conditions like rates, liquidity, and risk appetite. If conflicts ease, markets may get a sentiment boost, but it’s not a direct cause of a bull run.