Do you track closing line value, or ONLY WINS AND LOSSES?

[Vaculin]

Do you calculate your closing line value, or just judge your bet after the result?

In sports betting, a lot of bettors only check if they won or lost the ticket. But sometimes, the result alone does not really tell if the bet was good. You can make a good bet and still lose, or make a bad bet and still win.

One thing I think serious bettors should track is closing line value. For example, if you bet a team at 2.10 and the line closes at 1.85, maybe you found value before the market corrected. But if you always bet at worse odds than the closing line, maybe your timing or analysis is not really strong.

So for those who track their bets, do you also check if you beat the closing line?

Or do you only look at win/loss record and profit, without checking if your bets were actually +EV long term?

[Hispo]

Do you calculate your closing line value, or just judge your bet after the result?

In sports betting, a lot of bettors only check if they won or lost the ticket. But sometimes, the result alone does not really tell if the bet was good. You can make a good bet and still lose, or make a bad bet and still win.

One thing I think serious bettors should track is closing line value. For example, if you bet a team at 2.10 and the line closes at 1.85, maybe you found value before the market corrected. But if you always bet at worse odds than the closing line, maybe your timing or analysis is not really strong.

So for those who track their bets, do you also check if you beat the closing line?

Or do you only look at win/loss record and profit, without checking if your bets were actually +EV long term?

I tend to just pay attention if I managed to get my guesses right and pocket some money, actually. Though, there are occasions in which I actually check how odds behaved right after the market closes.
I did not know it was a way to know of one was able to find valuable bets, but I assume it makes complete sense.

Also, I do not keep track of losses and wins, because I have the impression that leads to chasing losses and eventually to more losses, but I guess keeping track of those odd variations at the end of the matches actually can help one to evaluate how much of a good bettor one is, specially since so many people assume there is a direct correlation between consistency and finding value in betting markets.

[famososMuertos]

It's very rare for pre-match odds to change significantly, at least on average. However, before a major event like the World Cup begins, the odds for these kinds of markets tend to fluctuate quite a bit. For example, if you look at the odds for a team's second match in the tournament, you'll likely see noticeable changes over time.

With that in mind, even if the pre-match odds for a game improve after I've already placed my bet, I would still take the new odds if I were betting at that moment. What matters to me is the expected profitability before the match starts, not the outcome afterward. That's where the analysis makes sense.

[Cointxz]

So for those who track their bets, do you also check if you beat the closing line?

Or do you only look at win/loss record and profit, without checking if your bets were actually +EV long term?

Is there a way to check the closing line for the specific without watching the book live at all time because this is time consuming to monitor what will be the final odds for the specific bet while watching the live match.

This is somehow a fresh view for me but I don’t consider it as a big deal because it will just give me things to think about what if on my bet in case my bet odds is always under value compared to the closing line.

[Charles-Tim]

I prefer to bet on matches that are very close to the playtime, but if I bet on those that are few days away, I do not check the betting odd. This has not come my mind before.

Many people are discussing about valued bet on this forum, but this is not easy to achieve. Even the odds that you are talking about, is most likely going to reduce after the match is getting closer, unless some good players in the strong team are not playing.

[Sanitough]

What you are doing is more like a pro strategy. I have read some books about this and watched some videos too.

It says that when the line moves while a team is heavily favored, most of the time it is the public moving it. In that case, the value could be on the other side. There are also games where there is no line movement, and if we do not see any value, then we just skip it.

But for casual bettors, they usually do not look at these things. They just prefer to keep it simple and bet based on who they think will win, without overthinking too much.

[un_rank]

I never check this after placing a bet, never though to. Thinking about it now I do not think it tells if a pick was good or not. Any significant change will happen cause of news which was not yet available at the time I placed my bets. It will be as much a bad pick from me as it would be for the bookies that set the odds in the first place.

Checking this does not also give any feedback. You get no takeaway which you can use for future bets which will have completely different factors.

- Jay -

[freedomgo]

But for casual bettors, they usually do not look at these things. They just prefer to keep it simple and bet based on who they think will win, without overthinking too much.

If that is what makes them happy then they will do it, however some gamblers will try to take the challenge because they keep feeding themselves with information saying it is possible to win in sports betting, maybe by watching YouTube videos or believing that some people got rich from betting and now they want to try it too.

You cannot really blame them though, because that is what they believe and it is their own money they are gambling, so with that kind of mindset, having an income statement or tracking your bets is really just a basic requirement. If they want to treat betting seriously, then they should also be serious in knowing whether they are really winning or just convincing themselves that they are.

[bhadz]

Do you calculate your closing line value, or just judge your bet after the result?

In sports betting, a lot of bettors only check if they won or lost the ticket. But sometimes, the result alone does not really tell if the bet was good. You can make a good bet and still lose, or make a bad bet and still win.

One thing I think serious bettors should track is closing line value. For example, if you bet a team at 2.10 and the line closes at 1.85, maybe you found value before the market corrected. But if you always bet at worse odds than the closing line, maybe your timing or analysis is not really strong.

So for those who track their bets, do you also check if you beat the closing line?

Or do you only look at win/loss record and profit, without checking if your bets were actually +EV long term?

I do check the closing value but I can't do anything about it anymore once it had changed after betting. So if I got lucky that I've won and the odds is way higher than before, it's okay for me because what truly matters is that I've won the bet. I don't record anymore with my win/loss record. One bet for each time and that settles the record. If I win, I've won for today and tomorrow is a different record if ever I continue to bet.

[bubilas]

Do you calculate your closing line value, or just judge your bet after the result?

In sports betting, a lot of bettors only check if they won or lost the ticket. But sometimes, the result alone does not really tell if the bet was good. You can make a good bet and still lose, or make a bad bet and still win.

One thing I think serious bettors should track is closing line value. For example, if you bet a team at 2.10 and the line closes at 1.85, maybe you found value before the market corrected. But if you always bet at worse odds than the closing line, maybe your timing or analysis is not really strong.

So for those who track their bets, do you also check if you beat the closing line?

Or do you only look at win/loss record and profit, without checking if your bets were actually +EV long term?

Absolutely, and sometimes I think about it. Indeed, if, for example, I bet and my friend bets, then he can win, but did he bet correctly? Did you calculate everything? Maybe the team that was actually a dark horse won? Therefore, any results should take this into account. Remember the moment in showdown poker - how disappointing it is when those cards that have a small chance win. Therefore, you should not give up in cases of failures, you should always understand that even a good bet... He might lose. This is the moment when a fact is not something that needs to be taken into consideration, no matter how strange it may sound.

[joeperry]

I honestly don't check it since most of my bets were really at live matches, I'm a type of player that doesn't really want to wait for few hours and I always check what's available at the time I placed a bet but there are really times where I placed a pre bet to some certain games especially esports and honestly I don't usually check the closing line value and I don't think that's actually a good indicator to see if you get a good bet or not as there are times that you can get a higher value in live sports and you can actually have more chance to predict the outcome of the match after watching it a few minutes and few assessment. Though this is just my personal observation and experience and it doesn't guarantee that it would work all the time.

[mirakal]

I honestly don't check it since most of my bets were really at live matches,

That is not an excuse if you really want to track your bets, hehe, because even if it is live matches, you can still see the history of your bets and check if they won or lost.

The real reason is probably that you are not really interested, like many of us. Even me, I do not track my bets regularly, there are times I do it when I feel like I am a pro, but most of the time I just gamble like casual bettors.

Not a big deal to me anyway, because I already know I can never become a successful sports bettor.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

I always thought to myself, nothing is better than winning and then every loses should be let go because even if you track the closing line value, I don't think it's gonna make any different from what your next bet outcome would be, so I'm just excited if I win and don't bother to check for this, when I lose, I also move on and then hope that next bet would be successful. I'm more focused on the outcome and then my next bet.

[danherbias07]

Since I have been watching live, yes, I do track the closing line.

But I don't consider it as a reason if I have a good or a bad bet. There's a chance that there are just too many gamblers who took the bet the other way, and maybe a whale did place a large bet on the opposing team or player. I don't really want to judge what the results of the game will be just because someone made a bet to unbalance the scale.
Still, I do like taking advantage of these opportunities, especially if you strongly believe that your bet is going to win. When the odds fluctuate upward and the spreads get higher, it may be a chance to win more money, and there are times I will place one more bet to maybe have a chance to win more.

[GreatArkansas]

In sports betting, a lot of bettors only check if they won or lost the ticket. But sometimes, the result alone does not really tell if the bet was good. You can make a good bet and still lose, or make a bad bet and still win.

Hahaha, I can relate here, most of the time, I just check if I won or not. But for some sports, especially if I placed a bet on a handicapped points bet, I still check and analyze, especially if there are still upcoming fight that same team or opponents, so next match I have idea  what will be the result.

[Cryptomultiplier]

Closing line value is more for professional bettors than just any average bettor who only cares about win or losses.
Closing line value involves more look at the data and it's for those who track a betting portfolio or calculate long term probability.
So this makes it more of a serious betting setting with logging of data on a spreadsheet or notepad or the use of some tools to see the CLV over time and ascertain if progress is being made or not.
 
Well, I mostly don't waste much time betting all the time or try to take it too seriously because I care for my emotional state and that's why am very much okay with just having a win or walking on after a loss, unless I decide to go through my history of bets to note the errors I made and how it cost me to lose much more than I should have gained.

[Moreno233]

Do you calculate your closing line value, or just judge your bet after the result?

In sports betting, a lot of bettors only check if they won or lost the ticket. But sometimes, the result alone does not really tell if the bet was good. You can make a good bet and still lose, or make a bad bet and still win.

It does not matter what the lines are at any point in the game, as long as the bet end in a loss, you have lost your money. On the other hand, if the game end in a winning, you will smile and congratulate yourself for a job well done. That is to say, the winning is what matters and where a loss happens, the bettor will just look at the major thing that caused the loss, accept it and move on. I have not figured out what use knowing the closing line will be, unless you can help tell use what such information can be used for.

[YOSHIE]

Do you calculate your closing line value, or just judge your bet after the result?

It could be said that I have been doing gambling activities for a long time, unfortunately I never track my winnings and the same goes for losses, when I do that is today's result that I got in betting and when I lose it means I was unlucky that day.

Of course I have a reason why I never track all of that, because I don't gamble using my savings or salary, I use extra money/side money, If I win it means good luck for me and if I lose it means bad luck for me, of course I will bet again with the remaining balance I have.

[Showlove01]

Do you calculate your closing line value, or just judge your bet after the result?

In sports betting, a lot of bettors only check if they won or lost the ticket. But sometimes, the result alone does not really tell if the bet was good. You can make a good bet and still lose, or make a bad bet and still win.

One thing I think serious bettors should track is closing line value. For example, if you bet a team at 2.10 and the line closes at 1.85, maybe you found value before the market corrected. But if you always bet at worse odds than the closing line, maybe your timing or analysis is not really strong.

So for those who track their bets, do you also check if you beat the closing line?

Or do you only look at win/loss record and profit, without checking if your bets were actually +EV long term?

I don't really check this because at some point I feel like it doesn't really matter, loss is a loss and a win is a win so why checking this? I don't consider it as a strategy though and I don't see it as something that will help me win in gambling. I don't know if you have been checking this and I don't know how successful you have become... After making my selections or prediction and bet the game what I wait for is the result whether they will play as expected or not.

[Findingnemo]

I bet before the game begins and watch the game if I had times or just completely ignore even the game while just tracking the score or sometimes commentary if I am in the drive and only check the ticket after a day or something and there are many casinos which I didn't even take time to withdraw the balance and just let it be there forever or just roll the entire balance on aviator or plinko to see if I make it big.