Do you track closing line value, or ONLY WINS AND LOSSES?

[ruykeri]

I don't really think that deeply, I just analyze and bet. If I win, it makes me very happy. If I lose, I accept it. Although it makes me feel bad when I lose, I can accept it very easily. In the beginning, it was very difficult, but now it has become an easy and consistent thing to accept after losing. So after losing, I don't think much about that match. I just think that maybe my analysis was wrong, but most of the time, the reason I lost a match was because of my bad luck. Because the way I think and bet, sometimes that team doesn't perform that well. That's why I lose, but I don't think so deeply about the odds.

[Fortify]

Do you calculate your closing line value, or just judge your bet after the result?

In sports betting, a lot of bettors only check if they won or lost the ticket. But sometimes, the result alone does not really tell if the bet was good. You can make a good bet and still lose, or make a bad bet and still win.

One thing I think serious bettors should track is closing line value. For example, if you bet a team at 2.10 and the line closes at 1.85, maybe you found value before the market corrected. But if you always bet at worse odds than the closing line, maybe your timing or analysis is not really strong.

So for those who track their bets, do you also check if you beat the closing line?

Or do you only look at win/loss record and profit, without checking if your bets were actually +EV long term?

Unless you are trying to actually build a long term strategy which involves hyper analysis and trying to outperform the bookmaker data crunching, then just leave it as entertainment. You thought before the bet that the simple calculation, the multiplier, was in your favor and decided that it was worth the risk. The outcomes are black and white, there's no point steaming about the penalty in the last minute which snatched victory from your bet, especially if you watch the sport live, because it was always going to happen and these freak results are part of thousands of similar events that have occurred over time - humans simply don't have the processing power to comprehend all the connections and variations involved.

[UpTober]

I have a certain consistency in my betting, I don't always consider the overall outcome of the game as a win or loss, but I do consider all the factors. For example, if I bet on a match and the team I bet on performs well and loses, I don't blame myself, but I think my decision was right, but in this case, luck may not have been on my side. Another thing I do in sports batting is to consider which team can do well against which team, which team's game is being played on which ground or which team has a good record on the ground where it is being played, or which team is ahead in current performance, and then I bet on any team. For example, yesterday I bet on Mexico in the match between Mexico and South Africa because I thought that Mexico could never lose against South Africa on their home ground, and they won very well against South Africa.

[Versatile_choice]

I don't really think that deeply, I just analyze and bet. If I win, it makes me very happy. If I lose, I accept it. Although it makes me feel bad when I lose, I can accept it very easily. In the beginning, it was very difficult, but now it has become an easy and consistent thing to accept after losing. So after losing, I don't think much about that match. I just think that maybe my analysis was wrong, but most of the time, the reason I lost a match was because of my bad luck. Because the way I think and bet, sometimes that team doesn't perform that well. That's why I lose, but I don't think so deeply about the odds.

I don't pay attention to my losses, just as you said that you only analyze and bet, and then accept whatever outcome you get with faith, Of course these is how gambling is supposed to be treated instead of stressing ourselves in things that is not relevant because even if you figure out how much you have lost you can't even recover it that is the more reason why I don't bother myself trying to figure out how much I have lost in gamble. Maybe that is because I don't take gambling serous I only bet when I have spare money, if there's non, then I will just forget about gambling for the main time.

[KiaKia]

Do you calculate your closing line value, or just judge your bet after the result?

In sports betting, a lot of bettors only check if they won or lost the ticket. But sometimes, the result alone does not really tell if the bet was good. You can make a good bet and still lose, or make a bad bet and still win.

One thing I think serious bettors should track is closing line value. For example, if you bet a team at 2.10 and the line closes at 1.85, maybe you found value before the market corrected. But if you always bet at worse odds than the closing line, maybe your timing or analysis is not really strong.

So for those who track their bets, do you also check if you beat the closing line?

Or do you only look at win/loss record and profit, without checking if your bets were actually +EV long term?

I don't get what you are trying to proof here, almost all the losses that gamblers had are always close to the line, I know someone who gambles on sports most of his life and the one word that he is used to is I am so close.

He has always been so close since 2018 till today, he haven't make a break through using gambling till now, what does this tells you? Gambling isn't all about wins and losses alone, you need luck for it to worth it.

You can try over and over and be this close to winning, it still won't change alot, a loss in gambling isn't prewin, it's called loss still, it would be great if you can use stop loss like in trading and get some money back.

[IjawMan]

 

I don't really think that deeply, I just analyze and bet. If I win, it makes me very happy. If I lose, I accept it. Although it makes me feel bad when I lose, I can accept it very easily. In the beginning, it was very difficult, but now it has become an easy and consistent thing to accept after losing. So after losing, I don't think much about that match. I just think that maybe my analysis was wrong, but most of the time, the reason I lost a match was because of my bad luck. Because the way I think and bet, sometimes that team doesn't perform that well. That's why I lose, but I don't think so deeply about the odds.

I don't pay attention to my losses, just as you said that you only analyze and bet, and then accept whatever outcome you get with faith, Of course these is how gambling is supposed to be treated instead of stressing ourselves in things that is not relevant because even if you figure out how much you have lost you can't even recover it that is the more reason why I don't bother myself trying to figure out how much I have lost in gamble. Maybe that is because I don't take gambling serous I only bet when I have spare money, if there's non, then I will just forget about gambling for the main time.

sports betting van be difficult to calculate basing on analysis alone if we do not care about other considerable variables that can affect the result of the game to deviate from what your analysis may have given you.

Incidents like referee wrong decisions can alter the flow of the match, change the game and the result therefore invalidating any tracking of close line value as the op illustrates.

This are what can make gamblers not give attention to the odds changes but concentrate more on what the result of their bet finally became, a loss or win.

[WhoYouCantKill]

Gambling is a game of luck and there is no doubt about that but it doesn't mean that a gambler should not do anything to increase there odd of winning. Having a good gambling skills can help increase a gambler chances of winning a bet. So if a gambler decides to wait for only luck alone or for when luck will be on there side . They may end up not winning at all , it is best to increase once chances of winning by improving our gambling skills but this doesn't mean with skills alone that winning is certain. Luck is still important as long as gambling is concerned and is not something anyone can influence. A gambler has to do his part and leave the rest for luck to decide.

Inasmuch as a gambler’s skills can be helpful, it’s crucial to know that it would be dangerous to solely rely on one’s skills. Skills doesn’t make people win, instead, it helps people make better decisions, but mind you, the chances of these decisions turning out to be wrong are pretty high because in the long run, winning is about luck and not about how good your skills are. Every game, especially in in luck based games, luck remains the major factor that determines the outcome of every game.

[Ever-young]

I don't really think that deeply, I just analyze and bet. If I win, it makes me very happy. If I lose, I accept it. Although it makes me feel bad when I lose, I can accept it very easily. In the beginning, it was very difficult, but now it has become an easy and consistent thing to accept after losing. So after losing, I don't think much about that match. I just think that maybe my analysis was wrong, but most of the time, the reason I lost a match was because of my bad luck. Because the way I think and bet, sometimes that team doesn't perform that well. That's why I lose, but I don't think so deeply about the odds.

Infact, that's the best way for one to gamble, having the mindset that gambling won't have to be in your side always and accepting defeat its important as one don't have to really stress themselves mentally because they lose their bet in gambling, but if one master such mindset to also expect loss in gambling, makes the game to be more enjoyable for them to play, as they can control their emotions without any much struggling. Unlike some people who play the game for money and not for fun, and the game usually turned into battle game for them and its not healthy or helpful to them.

[WhoYouCantKill]

Gambling is a game of luck and there is no doubt about that but it doesn't mean that a gambler should not do anything to increase there odd of winning. Having a good gambling skills can help increase a gambler chances of winning a bet. So if a gambler decides to wait for only luck alone or for when luck will be on there side . They may end up not winning at all , it is best to increase once chances of winning by improving our gambling skills but this doesn't mean with skills alone that winning is certain. Luck is still important as long as gambling is concerned and is not something anyone can influence. A gambler has to do his part and leave the rest for luck to decide.

I do agree with you to an extent. As long as gambling is concerned (particularly in luck based games) luck plays a major role. But in games that are strictly skill based, the gambler needs to be the one who does all the heavy lifting, yeah, he doesn’t depend much on luck or even at all. What they need at this point is more of experience, knowledge, discipline and of course a proper bankroll management as these are the qualities that helps improve their chances of winning and luck solely luck like in luck based games.

[Wakate]

I do agree with you to an extent. As long as gambling is concerned (particularly in luck based games) luck plays a major role. But in games that are strictly skill based, the gambler needs to be the one who does all the heavy lifting, yeah, he doesn’t depend much on luck or even at all. What they need at this point is more of experience, knowledge, discipline and of course a proper bankroll management as these are the qualities that helps improve their chances of winning and luck solely luck like in luck based games.

In a luck based games like slot, it will be very hard for us to know what will be the outcome of a game without making an extra effort to attract luck that will bring the possiblity of winning. Sport betting is both a lucky based game and skill based so your skill can make way for you which can increase the chances of making profits.

[WhoYouCantKill]

In a luck based games like slot, it will be very hard for us to know what will be the outcome of a game without making an extra effort to attract luck that will bring the possiblity of winning.

Making an extra effort to attract luck that’ll bring the possibility of winning? I believe this is the first time that I’m hearing something like this, like I didn’t know there was actually some things or extra efforts gamblers can make that’ll increase their chances or possibility of winning in luck based games. I sure do hope you wouldn’t mind sharing some of these extra efforts because I’m really curious.

[Ever-young]

If they are changing the team based on hunch, then it's good for them. I hope they won't regret it when the results come the other way. Usually, I gave a good thought before making the bet, but once it's made I try to stick with them and it's kind of stubborness with me which doesn't let me cancle the bet even if the team I picked is playing like a shitty one.

Well canceling a bet isn’t always the best option, regardless of how the game is going because no one can actually tell the outcome of a game at any point of the game, especially in games like sports, football to be precise. If there’s one thing I have learned in my years of betting on football it is the fact that until the fina whistle is blown, anything is still possible, a team that’s been losing with more than one goal can still turn the game around in the final minutes of the game. In football anything is possible.

[junder]

In a luck based games like slot, it will be very hard for us to know what will be the outcome of a game without making an extra effort to attract luck that will bring the possiblity of winning. Sport betting is both a lucky based game and skill based so your skill can make way for you which can increase the chances of making profits.

I hadn’t really thought about what “going the extra mile” means when it comes to gambling, because I personally believe that winning depends entirely on luck especially with slot machines.

Sports betting involves skill, but skill alone isn’t the sole determinant of winning luck is also a key factor in the outcome of the bets placed.

[libert19]

Oh so this phenomena is called, 'closing line value'. I used to bet on this cricket league, there would be daily games and usually I would be making my bets on next game as soon as the current game would end — provided match is available to make bets on of course. Iirc, I would be getting better odds if I were to bet earlier than later.

I don't track my bets though, it's just something I observed.