THERE ARE NO CYCLES

[Wind_FURY]

THERE ARE NO CYCLES.

But there is, and it's actually still intact, no?

   ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

We may not know there reason behind it, but Bitcoin has always been following a "pattern" regardless of adoption, institutional buying, or the Halving.

Although you're right that "the cycle" could be broken, it's currently still intact, and on schedule to reach a Bear Cycle low on October - November.

      

[legiteum]

[...]
Bitcoin could go on forever, or it could become the MySpace of digital currency--a fad that will just fade away. There's nothing stopping it from doing either of those things.

Nobody knows the exact price in 5 years, that's true. But calling Bitcoin a fad after 17+ years of growth, adoption, and surviving multiple crashes seems a bit unfair. Time will tell, but it's already proven to be more resilient than most people expected.

17 years isn't that long and Bitcoin is a technology product: we've had a 1000 year track record of those things coming and going .

I don't know what Bitcoin will be priced at in 5 years and neither do you. Anybody who tells you "it will absolutely be up in price by then" is lying, either to themselves or everybody else.

I don't agree. There are cycles. It may not be as fixed and constant as people think but there are cycles.

Messrs. Motte and Bailey have arrived on the thread!

So you and many others here are basically, "oh yes, there's a cycle/pattern, but we aren't smart enough to see it yet".

The only reason for detecting a pattern or a cycle is to predict what will happen in the future. The sun follows a particular pattern, which we figured out a long time ago, and thus we can determine our golf plans for instance.

A pattern that we can't understand is, at best, mental masturbation. It's useless.

At worst, it's either hopium or it's pure bullshit. It's people seeing what they want to see, or people trying to make others see something that benefits them to see (say buying the stuff in your own bags so it goes up in price and then your bags go up too).

[Mahiyammahi]

If there was a cycle, tell me
 who truly won, and who truly lost.
There never was one.

We gave coincidences a name and called it a cycle.

Maybe many people don't just want to believe in it, and that's fine, cycles are real in crypto space and some will be gone forever, like halving cycles, it's all timing right? Bitcoin mining rewards keeps reducing per block after a certain time, that's cycles mister.

But like I've said, everyone is entitled to their own opinions.

I think we're not doing the math , but calculating our profits on the cycle. That's why looking eagerly on the cycle. Bull & Bear is always pushing it. Rather than halving we knows these two terms commonly. More we spent time more we try to focus maximize our profits. They cycle comes where we push to our limits

[Alpha Marine]

So you and many others here are basically, "oh yes, there's a cycle/pattern, but we aren't smart enough to see it yet".

If you want to call yourself stupid, then be my guest; otherwise, no need for the strawman argument.

A cycle doesn't have to be fixed. You can't compare nature to human behaviour. There is a bear and a bull market every 4 years, which is a cycle. Since the first halving of Bitcoin, I doubt there has ever been a period where there have been no bull and bear markets in that 4 years. That is a cycle. Until that pattern stops happening, there is a cycle. The halving happens, bitcoin peaks, people take profit, and the price falls. It has happened over and over again. Not knowing when and how it will happen doesn't stop it from being a cycle. Even the menstrual cycle of some women doesn't start and end on the exact same day of every month. The sun does not even rise and fall at the exact same time every day. Some days, the sun sets by 6 pm, other days it sets by 7 pm. There are even places where the sun sets by 9 pm some days. This doesn't stop it from being a cycle.

But when the sun will set on any given day or when the menstrual cycle will start or stop can be predicted correctly. A "cycle" does not mean you must know exactly when it will happen. You can predict the period. When the same events happen every 4 years, that is a 4-year cycle.

[d5000]

With the reduction of a supply, humans will predict that the price will increase because that is usually when happens when a supply of thing is reduce and the demand stays the same. This anticipation is what makes them buy.

I agree with this, but the ultimate trigger of the cycle in this case is human psychology, not the math of the Bitcoin supply - by the way, Bitcoin supply doesn't decrease with halvings, it only grows a little bit slower.

But Bitcoin's supply is growing already slowly. 20 millions are already mined.

And I still want cyclists to explain the 2019 bull market which almost reached the 2017 high in the middle of the crypto winter. The 50% crash in 2021 in the middle of the late bull market was also an anomaly, but it can be explained with the China ban. This is an example that news can drastically impact the "cycle".

That 2021 ended regularly with a cycle high in November also probably was the effect of news - specifically El Salvador's decision to make Bitcoin legal tender. Without that news the cycle high would have taken place in May.

I agree with the part of your post where you say that it may be a bad idea to try to time the cycle. It can work, it has worked 1 or 2 times now (the first 4-year cycle was 2013-17, and thus the first time you could try to use the "knowledge about the cycle" was for the 2017-21 cycle). But it's not as safe as some think. Eventually our well known cyclist of the Wall Observer will fail with his prediction. It's a bit like the Martingale game.

[Cryptomultiplier]

There are no cycles, there have not been any it was just made up connecting coincidences that in the long run did not even align with each other.
The halving bringing foretold bull run is like an ancient tradition ritual where people every year for a long time believe will bring good harvest but only those who actually cultivated well and made sure to water and manure their crops had the biggest harvest. There is no cycle, to set time to enter bitcoin.

There is a cycle no matter how we try to put, the ideal situation then is, this cycles are they perfectly following each other? You would say no exactly. Bitcoin cannot be in a perfect four year cycle but bitcoin definitely has a cycle every 210,000 blocks when block rewards are cut into halve, and this results into bitcoin adoption growing because the believe is that the asset supply is reducing and the market value will definitely increase and this believe is why after every period of this, there is a slow rise in price and then it continues to grow.

We cannot say that alright the market will continue to actually rise after every halving but the believe is that there will be more adoption after every halving which is definitely certain after each 210,000 this is a cycle. Denying the cycle now means that we are actually denying the fact that historically there is always a new ATH after every halving has occurred.

Concerning the timing of the market you cannot because aside the halving happening when it’s supposed to happen nothing between it has a certain time of happening again.

The cycles could just be mere adoption process that is aimed at debasing the fiat systems to facilitate more Bitcoin adoption.
I see it more as a game that has its main agenda at accumulation and endurance and patience and not more about timing the market floors or ceilings to make great returns and outsmart the mathematical four year cyclical rhythm that we are sold in on and that's the reality of how it is.

[Joy_learns_crypto]

Concerning the timing of the market you cannot because aside the halving happening when it’s supposed to happen nothing between it has a certain time of happening again.

I concede to this because bitcoin halving is the only certain occurrence because we at this time know when the next bitcoin halving will happen. If you know bitcoin already before then you would have also know when the previous halving would have happened.
The bull run and bear arent certain events like the bitcoin halving, they aren’t even secure because bitcoin is halving, they can happen an any time.

[serjent05]

The fact that there is a bull run and a bear run proves that there is a cycle in the market.  It is dependent on how each one of us interpret the elapsed time this so called cycle happens.  The human brain calculates data and sees patterns, and when these patterns tend to loop, it calls it a cycle.  Just like how the day and night turn into a complete cycle called one day.  

So, from what I observe, I tend to disagree that the Bitcoin market has no cycle.

[Smartprofit]

The phrase "No more cycles" has a very ominous meaning to me. 🙋

I imagine the following scenario...

The year 2028 arrives. People expect the Bitcoin price to rise before the halving (as it did in 2024). However, the price doesn't rise... "No big deal," people say, "The price usually rises after the halving, you just have to wait another six months." Another six months pass... However, not only does the price not rise, but (on the contrary) it falls! As a result, most holders sell their coins.

However, not all Bitcoin maximalists are ready to capitulate. People begin to expect the price to rise in 2029. However, the price doesn't rise in 2029 either!  Michael Saylor's company files for bankruptcy...

The price doesn't recover in 2030 or 2031...

This leads to a total sell-off of Bitcoin. People can't psychologically withstand such a prolonged price decline. After all, a bear market usually lasts two years. And this terrible bear market has already lasted seven years!

As a result, by 2032-2033, institutional players are getting Bitcoin at a very low price! Central banks include Bitcoin in their reserves. The price soars to $1,000,000.

[osasshem]

The halving doesn't move price.

Bitcoin halving doesn't really move the price, but by historical records, it precedes significant rallies, due to reduced supplies and increased scarcity, this tends to increase the demands in the market. Cutting the creation of new coins by half, the event creates an increased demand which tends to drives the price upwards. This is the impact of Bitcoin halving.

[BlackHatCoiner]

But there is, and it's actually still intact, no?

Are these really cycles? Or is it just bull markets followed by bear markets? If I told you that there will be bull markets followed by bear markets, as it's already happening with the stock market for a century, would a cycle be anyhow meaningful? We're always in either bull or bear runs, so we're always in a "cycle".

In five years BTC might trade at $1 million or $1 thousand. Or a lot more. Or a lot less. I don't know. And you don't either. Anybody who tells you they "know" what BTC will be in 5 years (or one year, or one month) is lying to you.

Nobody knows what the price will be, but there are certain levels more probable than others. By the same line of reasoning, you don't know where gold will be in 5 years, so it might go to $1 per ounce as well as $100k per ounce.

[(BTC)]

The four-year cycle you worship is three data points and a story you told yourself.
Three.
You wouldn't trust a coin that landed heads three times and call it "the pattern."
But you trust your life savings with this?

IMO, the above ~ from the OP is the strongest, and most inarguable, aspect of the point he is trying to get across. There is simply not enough data to definitively claim bitcoin price action operates in a 4 year repetitive pattern. Therefore, these massive swing trades countless bitcoiners make, in full/unfettered faith in the cycle logic, is a bit foolish. I have to admit, I loosely follow/believe in a 4 year cycle, I've discussed my feelings regarding it here:

Even though I'm a believer in cycles, I still refuse to swing trade/sell everything at tops and buy it all back at bottoms. That's way too much stress for me and putting faith in something stupid not happening like these "supercycles" people started talking about...no thank you, haha. So when/if it crashes/corrects like it did in most other recessions where oil saw a spike in price, bitcoin will experience collateral damage in price. Will that event (if it were to happen) coincide with the 4 year cycle? No crystal ball so idk.

@BlackHatCoiner, your post immediately reminded me of Titan, from Megamind:

[legiteum]

So you and many others here are basically, "oh yes, there's a cycle/pattern, but we aren't smart enough to see it yet".

A cycle doesn't have to be fixed. [...]

In order for it to be something besides mental masturbation, or hopium, or bullshit, then yeah, it needs to be "fixed".

A pattern that changes in ways that are not predictable isn't a pattern, it's just noise. You are better off going to Vegas and playing the slot machines because at least you get free drinks.

Nobody knows what the price will be, but there are certain levels more probable than others. By the same line of reasoning, you don't know where gold will be in 5 years, so it might go to $1 per ounce as well as $100k per ounce.

Gold has certainly acted like a meme investment in the last few decades as well, but given it's 40,000 years of history of being coveted by humans, I think we can safely predict a price floor for the stuff (although it's probably at one tenth the current price so I personally would never touch it for the long term).

Bitcoin is a brand new thing, relatively speaking, and... you can't hang it around your neck or make a toilet seat from it. If it's still coveted in, say, 500 more years, then maybe you can start to get more certainty in its pattern...