THERE ARE NO CYCLES

[BlackHatCoiner]

We enter a significant Bull Run every approximately four years.  And considering we have one significant run every Halving, is that not a cycle?

Maybe speculation about the halving does move the market. But, overtime the halving effect must be reduced; in the first four years 10.5 million bitcoin were mined, and the next four years it was 5.25 million, which is a massive difference. But, today, the reduction in new supply is simply too small to trigger bull runs of the same magnitude.

And we neither see the same pattern as "it used to". In the previous cycles, the bull run started after the halving. Last time, the bull run started before the halving.

[Wind_FURY]

But there is, and it's actually still intact, no?

Are these really cycles? Or is it just bull markets followed by bear markets?

 

What you described is actually a cycle, no?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

There are Market Cycles, Business Cycles, Boom/Bust Cycles, Bitcoin's Four-Year-Cycle - There are DIFFERENT Cycles, and it doesn't matter how you explain the "WHY" and the "HOW", they will always be there.

Although, they could change, BUT there will always be Cycles.

[purple_sparkles]

Cycles are patterns that tend to repeat themselves. In the case of bitcoin, this usually happens over a period of about four years. During that time, the price can fall significantly, and then later rise above the previous all-time high.Each cycle is different in its own way, but there is still a common pattern, growth toward a new maximum. That is why there is no need to focus too much on searching for differences and inconsistencies between cycles. It makes more sense to take advantage of the pattern that has continued to work so far. In my opinion, this is currently a very good time for accumulation.

[2stout]

I would say there are cycles and even though we may disagree, I believe we can agree that there are patterns at the least.  Chart below from Fidelity.  However, feel free to use other sources and the cycle or pattern is similar if not the same.

That chart looks cool with newbies but with people who have had enough time and experience in Bitcoin market, it's useless chart. Because who can consider the year 2026 is a bullish year?

Historically with Bitcoin market cycle, the year 2026 is a bearish year, and realistically with things happened in Bitcoin market recent months from 2025 to 2026, this year is bearish so far and very likely will continue to be bearish till the year ending.

Speculating that this year is bullish and ignoring the fact that 2025 is a bearish year that was confirmed already, is very non sense. This chart has no value to use for your investment plan in remaining months of 2026 and next years.

Try this
Bitcoin cycles comparison: halving, top, bottom, crossing top of previous cycle.
https://www.bitcoincyclescomparison.com/

It's actually not useless as you read 2026 wrong.  If you look, the green actually stops at 2025 and you can see there is a ? mark after that with a downward trend showing.  The point of the chart was to show that cycles or patterns that have already occurred, not future prediction or speculation.  If the point was future prediction or speculation, I would have used a different chart(s).

Also, you mentioned 2025 was a bearish year, which is odd because 2025 is when BTC hit its ATH.

[Livingleged]

If a particular process follow a certain pattern repeatedly with consistency on some factors, then it’s safe to say there it’s a cycle, we may want to put it to our self that there isn’t a cycle with regard to bitcoin but that not true. As almost everyone here has pointed out the adoption that occurs after every halving which usually leads to a new ATH is a cycle that has repeated it self over and over we can’t deny that. A lot of people will want to prove a point with different analogy that there are no cycles or it can’t even be broken. Normally thats what bitcoin critics do and we have seen many cases.

[dzungmobile]

If a particular process follow a certain pattern repeatedly with consistency on some factors, then it’s safe to say there it’s a cycle, we may want to put it to our self that there isn’t a cycle with regard to bitcoin but that not true. As almost everyone here has pointed out the adoption that occurs after every halving which usually leads to a new ATH is a cycle that has repeated it self over and over we can’t deny that. A lot of people will want to prove a point with different analogy that there are no cycles or it can’t even be broken. Normally thats what bitcoin critics do and we have seen many cases.

Bitcoin has one thing won't be changed, its Bitcoin block subsidy halving that was coded to happen every 210,000 Bitcoin blocks. With the average time of Bitcoin blocks as 10 minutes, there is about 4 years between two halving blocks. This factor can be considered as a "hard" factor that is very decisive for Bitcoin market cycle. So far, it has played significant role on Bitcoin market cycle, the cycle length, time of starting and ending of each cycle as well as very massive effects on Bitcoin price growths.

However, with time, mining and Bitcoin halvings, there will be less till very inconsiderable remained bitcoins for mining from future Bitcoin blocks. It means new bitcoins from future supply will become smaller and have less effects on Bitcoin market as well as price. The party has shifted from Bitcoin miners as whales to Bitcoin Spot ETFs and institutional investors as whales, and they're market makers.

Surely miners will lose their effects with time while new market makers (Bitcoin Spot ETFs and other institutional investors) will manipulate the market differently with their own favorite ways.

[Mpamaegbu]

If Bitcoin breaks $200k within the next 3 years, we can still blame the "cycle", where it's just hard money with massive potential doing its thing.

Well, if people would've to wait a certain time to pump in money into Bitcoin; then that's a circle. It brings in money and at the same time more people. We've seen that happen every four years repeatedly for a few rounds now. If we follow what had been done in 2017/18 (high/drop), 2021/22 (high/drop) and then now 2025/? (high/?), we can still point to a circle. However, for me, 2025 didn't end well as it didn't get to my presumed >X3 of previous circle ATH. Every new ATH did more than X3 of a previous circle.

A $200k+ would've captured that very well for 2025 but Bitcoin only did $126k before declining till now.

[legiteum]

[...]
This factor can be considered as a "hard" factor that is very decisive for Bitcoin market cycle.
[...]

No, it can be considered a coincidence as it's only happened four times so far, and Bitcoin has been going up in general during this time.

So far, it has played significant role on Bitcoin market cycle, the cycle length, time of starting and ending of each cycle as well as very massive effects on Bitcoin price growths.

Says you. But there's no evidence halving has anything to do with investor demand for Bitcoin.

Ask any random investor of Bitcoin, and 99.9% of them would tell you that they don't know what "halving" is and they don't care.

And if you carefully explained it to an investor... they still wouldn't care. There's nothing tangible that halving does to the value of Bitcoin. Nothing. It's just a technical detail of the system that has no effect on anybody's holdings. And it's priced in to the product from the outset, so it's impossible this can affect the market.

The bull runs after halving were coincidences and there's no reason to believe it will (or won't) happen again.

[Myleschetty]

In a way, I both agree and disagree. I concurred that adoption is a reality. Nevertheless, we are still unable to ignore the cycles that are consistently brought on by the massive demand and traffic that always occur during the Bitcoin halving. This leads to network congestion, which in turn literally causes the ATH of the Bitcoin market price, which repeats itself. The inevitable market correction is another cycle.

[OsaiEmma]

~snip
THERE ARE NO CYCLES.

There is only adoption.

Certainly there is adoption, but not just adoption. Okay, let's do away with the "cycle" label and call it a pattern. There definitely is a pattern here, right? And another thing, it is consistent within a time frame which is approximately every 4 years (there are variables, so it is not definite). And guess what follows these 4 years? The Bitcoin halving. We may all say there is no cycle, no pattern, blah blah blah, but the data tells a different story.

Before the invention of Bitcoin, there were traders trading financial assets, stocks, forex, gold, etc. And these traders worked with past data, trying to identify a pattern correlating with these assets' behavior, when the data becomes consistent, then it becomes a yardstick.

Bitcoin, whether we want it or not, is now a financial asset that can be traded too, and the same principle is applied, and the same result is produced. Maybe no cycle, but there definitely is a pattern behaving cycle-like.

The halving doesn't move price.

Deep down you know this.

How can we be so sure about this when, historically, a bull run follows the halving, right? As time goes on, most traders start positioning themselves even before the halving, and that's why you often experience an accumulation period before the halving.

So, it will be difficult to prove your point, cause history and data say otherwise.

[...]
This factor can be considered as a "hard" factor that is very decisive for Bitcoin market cycle.
[...]

No, it can be considered a coincidence as it's only happened four times so far, and Bitcoin has been going up in general during this time.

So far, it has played significant role on Bitcoin market cycle, the cycle length, time of starting and ending of each cycle as well as very massive effects on Bitcoin price growths.

~snip

The bull runs after halving were coincidences and there's no reason to believe it will (or won't) happen again.

Wow, ok cool, nice take. But there have only been 4 halving so far, and 4 coincidences as well, right?

Hmmm, wow....I wonder🤔

[HONDACD125]

There are no quarters in a year; it's just three months but we call them quarters because when something exists of 12 numbers, 3 out of that will be a quarter. Similarly, when we have witnessed that the price of Bitcoin goes down and then up exactly within four years, and this has been happening every single time, and you also agree that bear markets and bull runs are real and they exist, so if they align in a way that makes it like a pattern, we can surely call it a cycle, because it makes sense. Something that occurs in the same pattern repeatedly can be called a cycle, there is nothing wrong in that.

There is no doubt that the overall reason for why Bitcoin goes up over time is because of the rising adoption, but we also have bear markets, and they occur because those involved in it believe in the cycle, so they basically take profit when the market hits an all-time high, and when the mass selling happens, the market dumps again, which is how the cycles are formed, and if we are repeatedly seeing this thing happening, we can surely call it a cycle. This is what I think.

[Catenaccio]

There are no quarters in a year; it's just three months but we call them quarters because when something exists of 12 numbers, 3 out of that will be a quarter. Similarly, when we have witnessed that the price of Bitcoin goes down and then up exactly within four years, and this has been happening every single time, and you also agree that bear markets and bull runs are real and they exist, so if they align in a way that makes it like a pattern, we can surely call it a cycle, because it makes sense. Something that occurs in the same pattern repeatedly can be called a cycle, there is nothing wrong in that

Bitcoin market cycles so far are not exactly the same like exact four years from starts to endings, and there are small or big differences among cycles too. Bitcoin market cycle can have some common patterns and we only can use what we have, prices from past years, previous cycles and any available patterns for our speculations about future of Bitcoin market.

There will be accuracy and inaccuracy, nothing in the future will be the same like what happened in the past, and any analysis or speculation must take it into consideration. Having ideas about possible scenarios of Bitcoin market in the future is good, but we can not completely rely on it for our risk and investment capital management.

With uncertain accuracy of speculation, we will need to do something different and better such as focusing on long term investment, accumulation and holding of our bitcoin for a long time, to simply let Bitcoin market moves naturally and brings profit to strong and long term holders.

[pawanjain]

If you know about "the cycle" then chances are that many others know about it too.
If many people know about the cycle then chances are they have already played their move.
If many people have already played their move for the cycle then the cycle is no more a cycle and it changes completely.
That's what happening with bitcoin this time. The cycle is changing and we need to acknowledge this quickly.