It seems like everyone is too confident about the 4-year cycle

[Alpha Marine]

What I base my theory of the 4-year cycle on is human behaviour.
There is no code in Bitcoin that guarantees a 4-year cycle. Even the number of blocks in a halving and the halving itself are not guarantees of the 4-year cycle, but there is always a way humans react to certain situations, and because human behaviour is not fixed, there is no guarantee of a 4-year cycle.

However, for now, I still believe the 4-year cycle is a thing and will continue to be. Humans (investors in this context) will always speculate that the price of Bitcoin will increase after the halving. Reduced reward per block mined means reduced supply. So when the supply is reduced, and the demand is the same, the price will increase. Investors know this, so they will buy or hold after the halving, waiting for the price to peak. And due to the increased demand, the price will go higher until it peaks.
When the price peaks, they will take profit, which will then create a chain reaction and cause a dip. These events create the bull market and bear market.

But of course, it's not fixed or guaranteed. Humans react differently to situations, and it's no secret that a lot of humans are influenced by the actions of others. If institutional investors don't take profit, retail investors will not, and that might prevent a bear market. But my speculation, or should I say "theory", is that institutional investors will always act on their motive, which is to make profit.

[Tamaperdana]

Everyone seems convinced the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is guaranteed at this point. The more I read Bitcoin Twitter, Reddit, and YouTube, the more it feels like the cycle is treated as a fact rather than a theory. Historically, markets love making the majority look foolish.
What if this is the cycle where it breaks?

I’m not saying the cycle is dead or that Bitcoin won’t continue growing. I’m just wondering whether we’re putting too much faith in a pattern because it has worked before. P.S. This is my first post here, so apologies if I made any mistakes.

I believe Bitcoin's four-year cycle is still operating normally at this point, as Bitcoin has already established a new all-time high at $125,000, and I believe this is strong evidence that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is still ongoing. So, I have no doubts about this at this point, as everything feels quite normal to me. Furthermore, if you're writing this post solely because Bitcoin's price dropped to $60,000 yesterday, I think that might be a misnomer. Bitcoin's current cycle has entered a bearish phase, or a bear market. So, it's natural for Bitcoin's price to drop initially. But after that, I'm confident that Bitcoin will rise again and establish a new all-time high. Therefore, in my view, Bitcoin's four-year cycle is still ongoing, and everything is proceeding as before.

[Danica22]

Everyone seems convinced the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is guaranteed at this point.

No, not everyone believes in the four-year cycle of bitcoin. As I recall, when Bitcoin was still trading above $100k, many people had already stopped believing in market cycles. They argue that with the involvement of WS and the government, the traditional cycle has been broken and bitcoin is entering a new cycle.
That was when supercycle theories, along with prediction that Bitcoin would reach $200k–$500k, started to emerge and gained strong support, because everyone wanted that outcome to happen. At that time, only a few people believed in the four-year cycle of the market

It could be argued that belief in the four-year cycle was once considered outdated. But recently, it has been making a comeback as the market has not moved as most predicted and expected.
When Bitcoin plummeted from $126k to $60k and the supercycle dream collapsed, people gradually returned to believing in the four-year cycle. Because they no longer had anything to hold on to.

[JamesDaniel90]

Going into this year i didn't think the 4 year cycle would still be a thing but today it is still possible.

If we keep going sideways and down next few months and bottom in Q4, then the 4 year cycle will line up with previous years.

I am hoping that isn't the case though and we bottom either this month or next.

[tabas]

Going into this year i didn't think the 4 year cycle would still be a thing but today it is still possible.

That's confusing and contradicts when you think about the both of it.

If we keep going sideways and down next few months and bottom in Q4, then the 4 year cycle will line up with previous years.

I am hoping that isn't the case though and we bottom either this month or next.

We'll see that but this shows that we're going to see more of these drops and just get yourself be prepared for it. Because it's the market's sentiment right now that this bear is going to stay for quite a while or until this year ends.

[JamesDaniel90]

Going into this year i didn't think the 4 year cycle would still be a thing but today it is still possible.

That's confusing and contradicts when you think about the both of it.

If we keep going sideways and down next few months and bottom in Q4, then the 4 year cycle will line up with previous years.

I am hoping that isn't the case though and we bottom either this month or next.

We'll see that but this shows that we're going to see more of these drops and just get yourself be prepared for it. Because it's the market's sentiment right now that this bear is going to stay for quite a while or until this year ends.

Not sure what you are confused about.   I said at the beginning of the year i didnt think the 4 year cycle would still be but here we are 8 months later and due to where we are currently it looks like it still is 4 year cycle.

[Ayebabara]

The 4 year cycle is just being assumed by people through the likely happening of the past in the Bitcoin market where by the Bitcoin prices keeps going up and down within the cycle of four years intervals.

From the look of things this year to me I don't think that it will keep going in that cycle, predictions and the Bitcoin season is low according to the Bitcoin chart, the moment of the bearing but though if it keeps going down and
more until Q4 then the prediction may fall through and the confident will be more. The more it keeps happening the more it corresponds with the assumption of the investors.

[GeorgeJohn]

I’m not saying the cycle is dead or that Bitcoin won’t continue growing. I’m just wondering whether we’re putting too much faith in a pattern because it has worked before. P.S. This is my first post here, so apologies if I made any mistakes.

This circle is not something that was created with bitcoin...it's just someone people believe, which they have made it be cultured, and imposed it to everyone to believe that bitcoin complete it 4 years before it will take another steps...This is the believe people on their own believe on....Do you know, that is not everyone who made a deep research of bitcoin falling and rising, believe such principles of 4 years circles of bitcoin....

[khiholangkang]

I’m not saying the cycle is dead or that Bitcoin won’t continue growing. I’m just wondering whether we’re putting too much faith in a pattern because it has worked before. P.S. This is my first post here, so apologies if I made any mistakes.

This circle is not something that was created with bitcoin...it's just someone people believe, which they have made it be cultured, and imposed it to everyone to believe that bitcoin complete it 4 years before it will take another steps...This is the believe people on their own believe on....Do you know, that is not everyone who made a deep research of bitcoin falling and rising, believe such principles of 4 years circles of bitcoin....

Somehow this bitcoin cycle theory is inherent in bitcoin holders, and this is what is always declared by many people even veteran bitcoin investors, they always say the same thing about cycles, and this has become the basis for the thinking of many people.
Do not forget also that the theory that is built is associated with the economic cycle of the government, which always withdraws money from circulation, increases interest rates so as to control inflation and then also the government does economic stimulus by injecting funds into the market so as to increase liquidity and people start entering the market again which drives prices on many assets including bitcoin and this is associated with the 4-year cycle pattern of bitcoin.

Yes I also see that not everyone believes in the 4-year cycle of bitcoin, therefore there are always those who say “this is the end of the bitcoin cycle”, “bitcoin will die”, “bitcoin will never rise in price again” and similar narratives show that they do not believe in bitcoin with a cycle that is seen as quite unreasonable.

[Smack That Ace]

Going into this year i didn't think the 4 year cycle would still be a thing but today it is still possible.

If we keep going sideways and down next few months and bottom in Q4, then the 4 year cycle will line up with previous years.

I am hoping that isn't the case though and we bottom either this month or next.

hehe. It is not just you. Most people thought the same way. Earlier, many believed that the 4 year cycle had been broken and we were entering a new phase with an extended bull market and Bitcoin reaching ath beyond anything seen before. But with what has happened over the past 8months, people are gradually accepting the reality that the market cycle has not been broken and it is repeating itself.

Similarly, many people hope the bear market will end sooner rather than drag on as long as it did in previous cycles.

However, as we all know, the market does not care about our thoughts or desires. The market moves in its own way. So instead of just guessing and hoping, we need to prepare for different scenarios.

[EarnOnVictor]

Everyone seems convinced the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is guaranteed at this point. The more I read Bitcoin Twitter, Reddit, and YouTube, the more it feels like the cycle is treated as a fact rather than a theory. Historically, markets love making the majority look foolish.
What if this is the cycle where it breaks?

You have a valid point, and I've said this many times. Anything that is happening to Bitcoin should be treated as its early stage, as Bitcoin is too young for someone to validate some occurrence as permanent. Concluding like that is wrong because anything could break along the way. Still Bitcoin is living true to the tradition/cycle; more reason why people love it more.

[SamReomo]

I’m not saying the cycle is dead or that Bitcoin won’t continue growing. I’m just wondering whether we’re putting too much faith in a pattern because it has worked before. P.S. This is my first post here, so apologies if I made any mistakes.

Well, the cycle system isn't dead yet because many people thought we're in a super cycle and many predicted that in initial months of 2026 we will see another hugely bullish phase of Bitcoin but that phase hasn't taken place yet and I still think that we might not see that super cycle phase even this time. So for majority the 4 year cycle pattern is still true and we can't deny it fully. We've seen bullish market of this cycle and now we're in bearish phase, hopefully we see bullish phase sooner so the super cycle thing becomes true but who knows if that will happen or not.

[goldkingcoiner]

Everyone seems convinced the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is guaranteed at this point. The more I read Bitcoin Twitter, Reddit, and YouTube, the more it feels like the cycle is treated as a fact rather than a theory. Historically, markets love making the majority look foolish.
What if this is the cycle where it breaks?

I’m not saying the cycle is dead or that Bitcoin won’t continue growing. I’m just wondering whether we’re putting too much faith in a pattern because it has worked before. P.S. This is my first post here, so apologies if I made any mistakes.

There is a reason why round numbers are psychological barriers, and there is a reason why people panic sell. For the same reason people religiously believe in things like the 4 year cycle or other such things.

Although having said that, the cycle does have some solid math behind it other than psychology: the halvings. You cannot argue with that.

Personally, I am quite confident of the rise of Bitcoin no matter which "strategy" people usually follow.

[tabas]

Not sure what you are confused about.   I said at the beginning of the year i didnt think the 4 year cycle would still be but here we are 8 months later

Well, that got me confusing at first but I now realized and understood.

and due to where we are currently it looks like it still is 4 year cycle.

Yes, it's still a 4 year cycle. Last year was the bull run and it's not surprising that it's followed by a bear market and series of corrections.
We can tell that this is going to take a while and maybe until the end of the year so we'll see.

[STT]

The live update to verify this time period would be the 200 week simple moving average.  Its very long term but you can see it displayed every day on the chart if you like and I've no doubt its referenced by many traders just like the shorter term 200 day MA and 50 day MA is noted and even traded against.
  They are indicators but such is their influence people do tend to buy and sell off the proximity price has to those measures.

I wouldnt mention it normally as its not immediately relevant but just these last two weeks we've been trading on or across this 200 week average many days.  So today the reaction has been positive and we are currently about a thousand dollars above that long term average which is still gaining such is its momentum where as the 200 day and 50 day are falling every day, they are both far more relevant to current trades but the 200 week is the more yearly view; tide vs the waves.

[barbara44]

What I base my theory of the 4-year cycle on is human behaviour.
There is no code in Bitcoin that guarantees a 4-year cycle. Even the number of blocks in a halving and the halving itself are not guarantees of the 4-year cycle, but there is always a way humans react to certain situations, and because human behaviour is not fixed, there is no guarantee of a 4-year cycle.

However, for now, I still believe the 4-year cycle is a thing and will continue to be. Humans (investors in this context) will always speculate that the price of Bitcoin will increase after the halving. Reduced reward per block mined means reduced supply. So when the supply is reduced, and the demand is the same, the price will increase. Investors know this, so they will buy or hold after the halving, waiting for the price to peak. And due to the increased demand, the price will go higher until it peaks.
When the price peaks, they will take profit, which will then create a chain reaction and cause a dip. These events create the bull market and bear market.

But of course, it's not fixed or guaranteed. Humans react differently to situations, and it's no secret that a lot of humans are influenced by the actions of others. If institutional investors don't take profit, retail investors will not, and that might prevent a bear market. But my speculation, or should I say "theory", is that institutional investors will always act on their motive, which is to make profit.

What about the halving? That must be their basis of this 4-year cycle. It is proven already though. If there is no guarantees, that is only the exact time or date if when it will occur. Each or most halving doesn't always occur on the same time and date though. Yes, we humans or our thinking rather were not fixed, so out of too much excitement for the halving, we may not stick on our plans of selling only on its peak. We can have a higher base price after each halving for the reason you said there.

This is why we can't expect a lower bottom if the bear market strikes. Bear is also the reason on why the price can sometimes dump for a while. So as we can see, there is no consistency on this regard. There is a line between institutional investor and us retailers. That is, we can have less patience, so we can sell before they do. Our force may still not be enough though to trigger a bear market.

[Bushdark]

Everyone seems convinced the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is guaranteed at this point. The more I read Bitcoin Twitter, Reddit, and YouTube, the more it feels like the cycle is treated as a fact rather than a theory. Historically, markets love making the majority look foolish.
What if this is the cycle where it breaks?

You have a valid point, and I've said this many times. Anything that is happening to Bitcoin should be treated as its early stage, as Bitcoin is too young for someone to validate some occurrence as permanent. Concluding like that is wrong because anything could break along the way. Still Bitcoin is living true to the tradition/cycle; more reason why people love it more.

The four years cycle has been the true pattern Bitcoin has been following which has made people get prepared for both the bear market and the bull market. It makes getting into the market and leaving the market easy for both traders and investors that are watchful of how price has been moving without over relaxing to make all the profits at once which can also attract losses.
Investors often converse about the four years cycle because it has been trusted for several years and that's what many traders have been working with, timing when to accumulate enough Bitcoin and when to sell part of their holdings to wait for another opportunity.

[Tonimez]

Everyone seems convinced the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is guaranteed at this point. The more I read Bitcoin Twitter, Reddit, and YouTube, the more it feels like the cycle is treated as a fact rather than a theory. Historically, markets love making the majority look foolish.
What if this is the cycle where it breaks?

I’m not saying the cycle is dead or that Bitcoin won’t continue growing. I’m just wondering whether we’re putting too much faith in a pattern because it has worked before. P.S. This is my first post here, so apologies if I made any mistakes.

I am sheepish about the bitcoin cycle, I am a believer too. I first had this thought of "What if the cycle is broken?" around April last year when bitcoin started fluctuating like we were going into the bear market. I felt that would be my last test of the strength of the bitcoin cycle. Judging from the fact that since records, in the fourth year of every cycle, the all time high has always occurred in the second half of the year. 2013 recorded its all time high in November when bitcoin closed in at $1.2k and in 2017 too, the all time high occured in December closing in at over $19k. In 2021, the all time high occured in November too, reaching over $69k. Based on this, despite reaching an initial ATH of $109k in January prior to Trump's Inauguration, I became curious during the April dip. Should bitcoin dip of April last year prolong into the current Bear market, it could have opposed the initial occurrence of All time high occuring in the second half of the bull year.

Since after recording the October 6th all time high of over $126k, I can say that the bitcoin cycle is not perfect but exists and not also ready to break, at least not in this cycle.

[reagansimms]

Everyone seems convinced the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is guaranteed at this point. The more I read Bitcoin Twitter, Reddit, and YouTube, the more it feels like the cycle is treated as a fact rather than a theory. Historically, markets love making the majority look foolish.
What if this is the cycle where it breaks?

I’m not saying the cycle is dead or that Bitcoin won’t continue growing. I’m just wondering whether we’re putting too much faith in a pattern because it has worked before. P.S. This is my first post here, so apologies if I made any mistakes.

Reliance on four-year cycles, often driven by halving events, has become a mainstream narrative in the crypto community, particularly Bitcoin. However, financial markets are notorious for breaking majority consensus when everyone becomes overly confident in a pattern (the four-year cycle). Historically, each time the new supply of Bitcoin was halved through a halving, the supply shock drove the price up significantly. However, over time, the total number of Bitcoins in circulation has grown.

So far the Bitcoin market has been growing rapidly, with more and more market participants anticipating the 4-year cycle, this collective behavior could cause the pattern to shift or occur more quickly. Let's take an example, the price could reach its peak (ATH) earlier than historical expectations if the accumulation of buying pressure occurs faster than in previous cycles.

Markets can move in ways that contradict the expectations of the majority of users. Although historical patterns are a reliable analytical tool, treating them as absolute certainties in an ever-evolving market often carries risks. I think the best thing a Bitcoin user can do is to keep an open mind to anomalies to survive the market dynamics.

[shinratensei_]

Yes, we are in my opinion. We treat it as a religious prophecy, but as time goes on, the cycle "pattern" will break. Comparably to previous cycles, this one was far less significant in terms of return, and I expect the next one to be even less significant, something around 4-5x from the current bottom.

It is already broken, imho.
If we look at the infamous ''Bitcoin rainbow chart" (one of the main pillars of the ''cycle theory''), in the last cycle, particularly in late 2024, we only briefly tapped the ''still cheap'' band and the rest of the cycle was spent at the ''accumulate'' or lower bands.

I believe that if one the main foundations (if not the main) of the cycle theory indicates there hasn't been a cycle since 2021 then this theory should simply be considered dead.

Rainbow chart, as much as I like to believe it to be the right price trajectory seeing how much growth bitcoin can have and how beneficial it is for bitcoin holder, doesn't really take into account the diminishing growth because market cap is getting too big and more capital needed to inject to keep it on its rainbow chart trajectory. It was realistic before, not realistic now. However 4 year cycle is a real thing.

If I'm being shown the chart and it shows bitcoin has been doing the same exact thing many times forming 4 year cycle pattern, there's nothing else you can do beside figuring out that the pattern exist and a real thing.