Why is having a good idea of the market's direction not enough to make money?

[nara1892]

You can have a good idea of the market's direction but the actual market direction will never be predictable, and that makes it very hard to make money from trading at such a highly uncertain market.

That is why even the highly experienced traders cannot still guarantee making money from trading because everything that happens in the market are said to be inherently unpredictable, which also means prices could easily adjust or changed due to unexpected new information that takes place in the market.

So even if you know everything how such coins move in the market, or aware of their direction, still you will have no hold of their sudden changes of market direction and price.

Being knowledgeable of what you are dealing with can help a lot in mitigating some losses. But it doesn't mean you won't suffer any loss in this market. As you are just speculating and hoping that you will get profit out of your investments, you should at least acquaint yourself with the projects that you are dealing with. Because no one will study it for you but yourself.

Yes, we should at least understand how the projects or assets we trade work. This will help us increase our chances of profit and minimize the risk of loss, rather than simply observing market trends on a platform on our monitor. Everything is better when we understand it more deeply. However, this may take more time and energy, but the positive impact is also equal.

[Oshio-man]

That is because you never know where the market direction moves, no one knows so they can only analyze and predict then trade. I agree that traders should gives the same portion to that four things @OP mention so they don't just rely on one thing. If market changes the direction, they adapt to the current situation and use other strategies, if their adaptation are good, the chances for them to make money will be wide open while they can balancing all things so they can handle the risks and the psychology better than others.

That is why mentors and professional in crypto trading keep advising newbies traders to learn before involving themselves into trading because there are a lot of risk newbies need to take before they will start earning income from trading, yes, no one know when the bullish season will begin but if you have the knowledge, it will be clear to you when the bullish season is spreading in the market, the reason is not enough to save some funds that will boost your moral  to purchase bitcoin or other coins that will bring income.

[Achalugo BTC]

Yes, we should at least understand how the projects or assets we trade work. This will help us increase our chances of profit and minimize the risk of loss, rather than simply observing market trends on a platform on our monitor. Everything is better when we understand it more deeply. However, this may take more time and energy, but the positive impact is also equal.

Yes, you have hit the point, just as they said knowledge is power and this is what most people do overlooked, they that don’t know that before one can be successful in anything they do in their life whether in trading or not, it’s important to acquire knowledge, by so doing one will get to understand how things are being done and how the markets works, which they need to make deep research and not to just follow treads which might mislead astray and make them to even lose their money and just as you said, understanding the market so deeply will help them to minimize the risk of loss.

[nara1892]

Yes, we should at least understand how the projects or assets we trade work. This will help us increase our chances of profit and minimize the risk of loss, rather than simply observing market trends on a platform on our monitor. Everything is better when we understand it more deeply. However, this may take more time and energy, but the positive impact is also equal.

Yes, you have hit the point, just as they said knowledge is power and this is what most people do overlooked, they that don’t know that before one can be successful in anything they do in their life whether in trading or not, it’s important to acquire knowledge, by so doing one will get to understand how things are being done and how the markets works, which they need to make deep research and not to just follow treads which might mislead astray and make them to even lose their money and just as you said, understanding the market so deeply will help them to minimize the risk of loss.

Clearly, this approach is the best and applies in any case, having knowledge or making decisions based on that knowledge will make it more likely to achieve success than just predicting haphazardly, trading can be learned because it is not gambling, so of course working hard in learning to increase that knowledge is something that is mandatory for a trader to do, it is very unfortunate if, for example, you treat something haphazardly when in fact it can be learned, think about the very big risk side.

[Inwestour]

Clearly, this approach is the best and applies in any case, having knowledge or making decisions based on that knowledge will make it more likely to achieve success than just predicting haphazardly, trading can be learned because it is not gambling, so of course working hard in learning to increase that knowledge is something that is mandatory for a trader to do, it is very unfortunate if, for example, you treat something haphazardly when in fact it can be learned, think about the very big risk side.

You can study trading diligently and devote a huge amount of time to it, but ultimately the market will behave unpredictably and you'll lose money. Gambling can also be beneficial, but I think it's not worth comparing gambling to trading because they're different things. You can make money in trading if you dedicate a lot of time to it, but the question is whether this kind of work is right for you, or if you prefer something more relaxed and less stressful.

[Emitdama]

That is because you never know where the market direction moves, no one knows so they can only analyze and predict then trade. I agree that traders should gives the same portion to that four things @OP mention so they don't just rely on one thing. If market changes the direction, they adapt to the current situation and use other strategies, if their adaptation are good, the chances for them to make money will be wide open while they can balancing all things so they can handle the risks and the psychology better than others.

An idea can be composed of plenty of things though and it must be mostly of composed of those good ones. Although what is also said there were good ideas. A good trader may seem to fail only because he did not predict the market direction but actually, they have a Plan B, and that counters their losses.

So as we can see, making money is not only about making money or profiting but it is also about preventing losses, up until we get the market on our favour. What you said there, is another thing but it is also a good one and it is also considered by some traders. To expand our reach may be uncomfortable at the start but once we adapt, it is a game changer. So we should stay positive.

[nara1892]

Clearly, this approach is the best and applies in any case, having knowledge or making decisions based on that knowledge will make it more likely to achieve success than just predicting haphazardly, trading can be learned because it is not gambling, so of course working hard in learning to increase that knowledge is something that is mandatory for a trader to do, it is very unfortunate if, for example, you treat something haphazardly when in fact it can be learned, think about the very big risk side.

You can study trading diligently and devote a huge amount of time to it, but ultimately the market will behave unpredictably and you'll lose money. Gambling can also be beneficial, but I think it's not worth comparing gambling to trading because they're different things. You can make money in trading if you dedicate a lot of time to it, but the question is whether this kind of work is right for you, or if you prefer something more relaxed and less stressful.

Regarding your question, it depends on how the trader feels. I mean, if he or she feels comfortable and doesn't experience too many difficulties, then trading might be suitable for him or her. However, if, on the other hand, they really feel tortured from various aspects, especially mentally and psychologically, and also have difficulty controlling themselves, then trading might not be suitable for them. Basically, we can't judge whether someone is suitable for that field or not, only they can feel it, but I agree that the more diligent you are in learning, the greater the chance of profit.

[yudi09]

It is natural for those who trade, especially those who are new to trading, to think that if they have the right idea about the direction of the market, they will definitely make a profit, but let's see how wrong or right their idea is in reality.

In trading, four things are generally given more importance, these four things are,
•Market Direction
•Psychology
•Risk Management
•Trade Management,
out of these four important things, many are successful in the first thing, i.e. the direction of the market, but most traders are not successful in the remaining three.

Because the market can experience sudden, unforeseen declines. I believe these four points are right on target, as they are interconnected.
This is why it can be said that trading is complex and not easy, even professional traders often experience losses.

Having only mastered the knowledge of observing or reading market movements but lacking in trade management is quite acceptable, as long as risk management is not neglected, which can lead to psychological problems. Another thing that should not be forgotten is learning from experience.

[savetheFORUM]

With beginners who most likely think making a profit on this trade is easy because they only see the profit side even with the way they think it's easy too, people like this are usually called FOMO and not a few are also many people who are FOMO with trading, with the initial burning enthusiasm making them confident they can get quick profits, unfortunately it is not real because the risk of loss is real and if they expect more the fear is that this could be a weapon for themselves that will make them stressed.

We as humans have a tendency to learn from others. It depends on each individual whether we have to follow someone who is successful or yet struggling. These people who feel left out of trading are usually the struggling ones and you should not really take them as an example. You should consider someone who is already successful because there are a lot of things you can learn from those people. FOMO has always been there. It is us who should control our mind and only then we can let FOMO slide.

Most people look at others as an example and if they see others making profits, they will straight away jump into trading thinking they should not miss those profits. They forgot, experience and knowledge as well is required in trading for you to make any profits. If you simply want to lose money, doors will always be open for such people.

[Big Dirams]

It is natural for those who trade, especially those who are new to trading, to think that if they have the right idea about the direction of the market, they will definitely make a profit, but let's see how wrong or right their idea is in reality.

In trading, four things are generally given more importance, these four things are,
•Market Direction
•Psychology
•Risk Management
•Trade Management,
out of these four important things, many are successful in the first thing, i.e. the direction of the market, but most traders are not successful in the remaining three.

Because the market can experience sudden, unforeseen declines. I believe these four points are right on target, as they are interconnected.
This is why it can be said that trading is complex and not easy, even professional traders often experience losses.

Having only mastered the knowledge of observing or reading market movements but lacking in trade management is quite acceptable, as long as risk management is not neglected, which can lead to psychological problems. Another thing that should not be forgotten is learning from experience.

For real you are on track trading is absolutely complex and the risk involve in trading ain’t something we can overcome easily without any real hard work and commitment. But as time goes on we begin to gain much experience from the market and get to understand the market far more better than before and our risk get to reduced gradually.

Losses are part of this trading journey and we can’t overcome it or slip away from it instead we can reduce our loss into something minimal but we can’t do away with this losses. Professional trader also faces loss and they can’t overcome it at all but just reduce it. 

[Franctoshi]

Having only the idea of the market direction can never be enough of a way to approach this market for a possible profit because you don't predict the market; you can only react to the market situation and its behavioral patterns and changes because you don't control the market, only the market forces (demand and supply). News, wars, economic, and geopolitical events are factors that determine the market direction and your profitability based on your positioning in the market.

[cyberninja2]

For real you are on track trading is absolutely complex and the risk involve in trading ain’t something we can overcome easily without any real hard work and commitment. But as time goes on we begin to gain much experience from the market and get to understand the market far more better than before and our risk get to reduced gradually.

Losses are part of this trading journey and we can’t overcome it or slip away from it instead we can reduce our loss into something minimal but we can’t do away with this losses. Professional trader also faces loss and they can’t overcome it at all but just reduce it. 

The essence of your answer is that if we don't practice we certainly won't have the knowledge or experience to learn about trading. This is very true. When we practice with the limited knowledge we have even though we know that risks exist we want to explore so that in the future we can face and master trading based on our knowledge and experience. After trying we dare to do it without thinking about the risks. Ultimately we understand more fully how trading works which requires hard work and a high level of commitment.

Consequently it's clear that anyone who undertakes a trading journey will inevitably experience losses as part of their quest for future profits. It's impossible for a journey to begin with immediate profits. It's simply impossible and I believe it's illogical to believe that a journey to achieve profits must undergo periods filled with hardships. We as traders must be prepared to avoid such occurrences and minimize their risk.

[yudi09]

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Losses are part of this trading journey and we can’t overcome it or slip away from it instead we can reduce our loss into something minimal but we can’t do away with this losses. Professional trader also faces loss and they can’t overcome it at all but just reduce it. 

Only two inevitable outcomes in trading are accepted: losses and profits. Prioritizing losses as a form of acceptance is crucial, allowing traders to minimize them and strive for profits.
Professional traders themselves recognize that losses are imminent, even with a well-analyzed strategy. They simply anticipate situations that lead to profits, but not losses.

[justdimin]

So as we can see, making money is not only about making money or profiting but it is also about preventing losses, up until we get the market on our favour

It's also about how to handle bad runs with minimal losses, rather than getting emotional, getting mad, and losing everything to one bad run. A trader needs to remain calm when a loss occurs because that's part of the trading journey.

To expand our reach may be uncomfortable at the start but once we adapt, it is a game changer. So we should stay positive.

Usually, when you have a solid strategy and a sound plan, you remain stable-headed and positive during bad runs. Having the confidence backed by good reasoning is important.

A good player doesn't start worrying about their place in the team because they underperformed in one game. But a player who's not confident in his skills will always get worried about their place and that doesn't just affect them emotionally but can also lead to further mistakes.

[ZAINmalik75]

Only two inevitable outcomes in trading are accepted: losses and profits. Prioritizing losses as a form of acceptance is crucial, allowing traders to minimize them and strive for profits.
Professional traders themselves recognize that losses are imminent, even with a well-analyzed strategy. They simply anticipate situations that lead to profits, but not losses.

Exactly. One can't expect no losses at all in trading or in anything they do, the trick is to minimize the losses and maximize the profits by properly using the opportunities that comes in front of you, and professional and good traders know exactly how to do that. When you know losses are inevitable, you use the right tools and tricks to make sure you don't let your losses overshadow the profits you are making or potentially going to make, and that is exactly where novice traders lose the battle, because they don't play it the right way.

A good or professional trader knows the importance of stop-loss and how to use it properly so that they don't lose a lot of money even if the market goes against them, because no matter how good you are, you can't just always be correct with your predictions, which is why it is important for you to use the tools and techniques that can save you from excessive losses, and stop-loss does that exactly. Those who don't use stop-loss often face unnecessarily large losses that they could avoid.

[Rubuchi]

Clearly, this approach is the best and applies in any case, having knowledge or making decisions based on that knowledge will make it more likely to achieve success than just predicting haphazardly, trading can be learned because it is not gambling, so of course working hard in learning to increase that knowledge is something that is mandatory for a trader to do, it is very unfortunate if, for example, you treat something haphazardly when in fact it can be learned, think about the very big risk side.

it is also good to know that knowledge is not something you get tired of looking for. As a trader, you are meant to keep searching for more and more knowledge as far as you remain within the business. It is a business to engage in trading, so when you are trading, learn because market directions do not always follow any particular rules. It is dynamic and can be unpredictable when you don’t have a good understanding about it. Predicting haphazardly in trading is purely like engaging in gambling. It does not make you any better of a trader and will expose you to losses here and there. What’s better is you have an in-depth knowledge and try new strategies and experiences to improve your trading skills.

[I_Anime]

In trading, four things are generally given more importance, these four things are,
•Market Direction
•Psychology
•Risk Management
•Trade Management,
out of these four important things, many are successful in the first thing, i.e. the direction of the market, but most traders are not successful in the remaining three.

This is accurate, without all this you won’t be able to become a profitable trader . They all need eachother for a better trading experience, many think with just knowing the market direction they are good to go , but the truth is that it won’t be enough cause you will need the others like psychology which play a vital role when come that’s what many traders are lacking and what they need to be profitable too .

[nara1892]

Clearly, this approach is the best and applies in any case, having knowledge or making decisions based on that knowledge will make it more likely to achieve success than just predicting haphazardly, trading can be learned because it is not gambling, so of course working hard in learning to increase that knowledge is something that is mandatory for a trader to do, it is very unfortunate if, for example, you treat something haphazardly when in fact it can be learned, think about the very big risk side.

it is also good to know that knowledge is not something you get tired of looking for. As a trader, you are meant to keep searching for more and more knowledge as far as you remain within the business. It is a business to engage in trading, so when you are trading, learn because market directions do not always follow any particular rules. It is dynamic and can be unpredictable when you don’t have a good understanding about it. Predicting haphazardly in trading is purely like engaging in gambling. It does not make you any better of a trader and will expose you to losses here and there. What’s better is you have an in-depth knowledge and try new strategies and experiences to improve your trading skills.

Yes, traders are destined to continuously seek knowledge. There's no tolerance for it, and it's a must if you want to achieve success. Success can never be achieved with minimal effort. Therefore, it can be concluded that learning and continuing to learn is a mandatory step, like a requirement that cannot be ignored, and that's natural, because there's always hard work behind success, in any case.
Sometimes I also feel tired when learning, especially when evaluating mistakes that lead to losses. It drains energy, but that's how it should be.

[snowpega]

Well, what I can say about your example for me is it's a lack of knowledge and experience....

You are very correct at that point, and I agree with it. Aside from this, I personally think that sometimes knowledge and experience also do not work for one to make money from the crypto space, especially if one is more into the trading space in the cryptocurrency industry. I am saying this because we both know the fact that the cryptocurrency market sometimes behaves so unpredictably, which, as a result, those who are good at doing analysis and have good market experience fail to catch the profitable moment.

And overall, if we just consider investing in bitcoin for long-term investment, then basic learning and basic fundamentals are also enough near me. Because in that case, you don't really care about the market price, whether it goes up or comes down, you just need to stick to your plan, which is more likely to be a new all-time high once you enter the market in the bear market and consolidation zone.

[alastantiger]

Having only the idea of the market direction can never be enough of a way to approach this market for a possible profit because you don't predict the market; you can only react to the market situation and its behavioral patterns and changes because you don't control the market, only the market forces (demand and supply). News, wars, economic, and geopolitical events are factors that determine the market direction and your profitability based on your positioning in the market.

Traders react to the news hence they are able to predict the direction of the market. It is that reaction that gives traders an advantage to be able to buy or sell with expectation that their prediction is going to be accurate so traders can also be viewed as those who predict the outcome of the news on the market. Just knowing about the market direction does not guarantee you making money because trading is not easy and a trader that makes a lot of profit have to be good at predicting the market hence you being able to predict the market gives you a good advantage over others as you'll be able to position yourself  properly to make profit before others are able to react when the market starts moving.