Why I trust sports betting over prediction market

[Oasisman]

I don't know if anyone have heard or read about this news : U.S. special forces soldier who won $409K charged for betting on Maduro's removal before raid was reported

source:  https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-special-forces-won-409k-bet-maduro-removal-venezuela/?linkId=932174801&fbclid=Iwb21leASSzsdleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZAwzNTA2ODU1MzE3MjgAAR5EK2kPTwgl8WgSggAn79HQujL0CC2enhvEaTgdMalX0kkK9EmR4tj1VMDXPw_aem_sxFNgZvfW2R4-5hrU4gL3w

We have heard a lot of issues about Polymarket, but this one right here is one of the major reason why I'm not a big fan of it.
Well, the case is still on going and if I'm not mistaken the soldier has pleaded not guilty on court. But, if this allegations are true, then a single person or a group of people can make tons of money on something that they knew in advance before the public does.
At least is sports betting, nobody knows the final score, something that is hard to rig. With prediction markets that involves politics, military operations, or anything that requires government critical decisions, there is always a chance that somebody knew something before making it to public. That's clearly a sign of disadvantage over someone trying to analyze the situation.

So, which one do you think is better? Prediction markets or sports betting?

Your input is highly appreciated! 

[Oshosondy]

Sports betting, bitcoin prices, ethereum prices, solana prices, gold prices, oil prices and many other predictions are also on prediction markets. I only go there for bitcoin price prediction bets, while I prefer to bet on gamble predictions on sport gambling sites because i do not like to track the progress of the sport like I am looking for money through it.

[passwordnow]

That's an insider there and that's why he's got the advantage. For me, I don't see too much difference of sports betting and prediction market. We're all predicting on how the games will end or how some numbers will tally based on our bets. So, it's all giving that vibes that everything is unknown unless you've got some insider and you're part of the game like for athletes who thrown games for their bets but later on they got caught. I think that's what's common on them, if they cheat and get an insider, eventually they'll get caught.

[Alphakilo]

I outrightly prefer sportsbetting probably because I am used to it and that the predictions market is still a new thing. The predictions market is facing a lot of backlash and lawsuits all in a bid to regulate them under gambling laws, but this they don't want because they believe they have carved out a new initiative for themselves and should go by a different regulation.
However, the sportsbetting market still remains strictly governed even though there may still be exploitable loopholes by the house or the gambler, but it is not as compared to the insider information which poses a big problem to the predictions market.

Until the predictions market have proper regulations governing it, sportsbetting still remains sure for me and I only want to get better at strategies I use to have an edge while I have fun and entertainment betting on my favorite sports.

[Oasisman]

Sports betting, bitcoin prices, ethereum prices, solana prices, gold prices, oil prices and many other predictions are also on prediction markets. I only go there for bitcoin price prediction bets, while I prefer to bet on gamble predictions on sport gambling sites because i do not like to track the progress of the sport like I am looking for money through it.

That's a safer option over anything else on prediction market. I totally agree to this.

That's an insider there and that's why he's got the advantage. For me, I don't see too much difference of sports betting and prediction market. We're all predicting on how the games will end or how some numbers will tally based on our bets. So, it's all giving that vibes that everything is unknown unless you've got some insider and you're part of the game like for athletes who thrown games for their bets but later on they got caught. I think that's what's common on them, if they cheat and get an insider, eventually they'll get caught.

And yep, those are the works of an insider. Prediction market and sports betting have similarities, but IMO, predictions like those that involves government operations/decisions and other political activities are more susceptible to cheating that predicting on what a certain match up in sports betting's final score.

[Orpichukwu]

Everybody should go for what they prefer. Sport betting people are afraid of fixed games even when it's not rampant in the prediction market. People are afraid of those with insider information taking advantage of that. Sport betting is still way better, and that's where I still remain. This prediction market trend is still not moving me to start making predictions and staking my money there.

[alani123]

You can trust sport betting more than prediction markets because the outcomes are clear and officiated by a body of observers that is much larger than any prediction market could ever hire. Football associations are generally much more prestigious at appointing referees in spite of all the corruption.

The thing prediction markets can have an edge on is how you can constantly exit a position. It's s different kind of gambling really. It would be ideal to have a high volume market for worldwide sports. Kalshi kind of has this for American sports but their volumes on European ones could see a lot of improvement if they want to compete with bookies.

[passwordnow]

That's an insider there and that's why he's got the advantage. For me, I don't see too much difference of sports betting and prediction market. We're all predicting on how the games will end or how some numbers will tally based on our bets. So, it's all giving that vibes that everything is unknown unless you've got some insider and you're part of the game like for athletes who thrown games for their bets but later on they got caught. I think that's what's common on them, if they cheat and get an insider, eventually they'll get caught.

And yep, those are the works of an insider. Prediction market and sports betting have similarities, but IMO, predictions like those that involves government operations/decisions and other political activities are more susceptible to cheating that predicting on what a certain match up in sports betting's final score.

I agree, because they have the info and we've seen this plenty of times with polymarket during the attacks of Iran and US. I remember that even one of Trump's son, Barron was said to earn that much on the prediction market. An easy way to make money but it also affects a lot of people mainly the bettors.

[Botnake]

Both can be at risk of having an insider. But there are more chances that it will most likely occur in the prediction market since there are no visible teams there that would play against each other but is just solely predicting the outcome of real-world events which can be easily rigged if there is an insider who get to gain advanced knowledge of the prediction bet.

However, it still relies on the preference of every bettor. Some would enjoy betting on prediction market while others get thrilled more betting in sports betting.

[macson]

The "insider" issue is a concern for many users when using Polymarket or similar prediction platforms, as these "insider" players can gain significant profits using the information they possess. Numerous cases of this have resulted in significant losses. However, there should be other betting options available in prediction markets that aren't related to politics or events with such potential for cheating, such as crypto price predictions or football matches, where the likelihood of cheating is lower.

[rbynxx]

So, which one do you think is better? Prediction markets or sports betting?

Your input is highly appreciated! 

Not fan of it, so, sports betting too. The only people who think sports betting is rigged is the one who is disappointed that their bets didn't one or just a few inches to have won it. There's a lot of reasons to be honest that sports betting is the best choice and it's not even close right now with prediction markets. It's an unregulated market so it's best to just stay away and there's some ongoing legal battle all over the place with them.

[Cryptohygenic]

There have been countless government and organizational officials who had faced legal cases for breaking the rules in the poly market with accusations of them being one way or the other stealing informations as insiders as a means to cheat in the poly market.
That of this officer in question is neither not the first or last. I don't also know if these alleged victims are not aware of the rules or left for them they tends to play too smart.
But what I keep questioning is, if they are aware of the rules in the case that they were not supposed to bet in the specific market and they have clues of any guaranteed prediction, why don't they just give the prediction to their love ones to play for them so that they can keep their identity hidden and reputation save instead of betting by them selves?

[Dave1]

So, which one do you think is better? Prediction markets or sports betting?

Your input is highly appreciated! 

Depends I guess. There could be gamblers that will stick with sports betting as they don't want to touch prediction market as it is a bigger and then there are news of insider trading and manipulation. Although Polymarket might be gaining some grounds on most gamblers, but they have been somewhat on the edge right now as there are a lot that countries that are banning them.

So personally, I will just stick to where I have knowledge and have edge because of analysis, that is sports betting. I have nothing against those who are into prediction market right now as there could be some of us here who are also making money there.

[Hispo]

I am all in for betting in sports and also in political elections, specially in the United States.
When comes of markets which involve a single point of fracture or a single entity to change the outcome. I would rather to stay away from it.

This world cup season I am going to stay away from politics and give all my attention to football, which is very difficult to rug against bettors and the general public.

Polymarket will have some markets on the mid-term elections in November, so I will definitely get some money into it and use my political knowledge about the USA in order to try to pocket some bucks.

Also. That soldier is completely guilty of inside trading, but he will try to get a plead deal in order not to get thrown in prison for so long. That is for sure.

[Achalugo BTC]

Not fan of it, so, sports betting too. The only people who think sports betting is rigged is the one who is disappointed that their bets didn't one or just a few inches to have won it. There's a lot of reasons to be honest that sports betting is the best choice and it's not even close right now with prediction markets. It's an unregulated market so it's best to just stay away and there's some ongoing legal battle all over the place with them.

Staying away might be a good suggestion. At times , they rigged after the extra time and this usually ruins the ticket and all that you have said about predictions market are true and fact, that's why its important for people to get note of that and be safe. However, the choice depends on what people wants, as they may have their own reasons why they need to make a choice but, let their choices don't lead them astray, as staying disciplined or control is the best way to win.

[JeffBrad12]

It's obviously sport betting. The limitation of market, liquidity, and insider trading in prediction market are making it difficult to trade. It's kinda different with sport betting offered by books, which usually offering more market, stable payment, and so many options to bet on with. Don't forget there is also promos too.

[fullfitlarry]

It's not about trust, it's about the market where we are familiar and where we can make a lot of money. Polymarket is huge and we might not like the idea behind this prediction market like in politics, even worst when human lives are involved.

So if there is a poll here, I'm under the assumption that majority of us will vote for sports betting. Most of us grew watching our favorite sports and became a fan. I don't think it will change just because prediction market has entered the market.

[yhiaali3]

Of course, sports betting is far superior. Regardless of whether the news about the American soldier is true or not, it's common knowledge that prediction markets can be exploited by individuals with sensitive information. This is one of the main reasons why Polymarket is not favored.

Therefore, many countries have recently banned polymarkets because this type of market may encourage dangerous behavior, interfere in sensitive political events, and create a conflict of interest between national security and financial gains.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

So, which one do you think is better? Prediction markets or sports betting?

Your input is highly appreciated! 

Actually, neither, because the sheer variety of options overwhelms me. You can bet on almost anything. But if I have to choose, I prefer sports betting, because when I pick something to bet on, I usually know more about it than I do with prediction markets. Plus, as you say, there’s the possibility of insider trading, and there have already been several high-profile cases.

[jcojci]

That will depend on their preferences. If they want to make money from both prediction markets or profits betting, they will choose and stick to that but some people betting on both.

They will see the opportunity so they can make money and bet on that place but on prediction markets, that can be manipulate so anything can be possible for the result.

The reason is make money and they will chase that, they choose where they want to bet and make money and doesn't matter they use prediction market or sports betting.