How odds movement can reveal market sentiment in Sports Betting

[Churchillvv]

Most times the fluctuations in a particular sport bookie can be attributed to sneaky moves to influence the bettors to focus on the likely to lose team for scammy sport bookies or casino but however, the truth is even if I keep checking the odds move, if I will loss , it’s definitely going to be a loss and nothing can change that so it’s best to go with your instinct and if you win you win.

[DPHOR]

Q: Do you usually check odds movement before placing a bet?

If I want to gamble or to place any bet on the gambling site is that usually start booking my games 1 week ahead or maybe probably 5-4 days ahead to enable me accumulate enough odds but when the match is about to starts and you went on to start booking your match then you should know that the odds has change where you won't give you the same odds again and potential winning could also be slashed down. You are also right since more people are picking that Team you automatically see the odds dropping while the one they assumed to be losing the match will keep having higher odds.

[KTChampions]

Odds movement isn't just about money coming in, but also relates to pre & current events. For example, in the middle of a match, if the home or away team gets a red card, it will cause the odds to change drastically. I usually only observe the pre-match section, 2 days before the match starts I will look at the odds, then I will do a second check 5 hours before the match starts.

I realize that what I do doesn't have a strong impact on winning, but at least it increases my slip winning chances.

There is a certain correlation between the money coming in for Team A to win and Team B getting a red card, isn't there?  
As for how useful it is to monitor changes in quotes, yes, it is difficult to profit from this (unless, of course, you trade quotes), there is a certain paradox in this - no matter what the quotes are and no matter how much they differ from those of an hour or a day ago, they are always fair (this doesn't give you any advantage, it stays with the bookmaker).

[Samlucky O]

Q: Do you usually check odds movement before placing a bet?

I don't usually check odd movement before placing bet, because I have done it before not even once or twice, I have tried it many times but it misleaded me. What I mean is that if I had 2 match with team A to win with 2.20odd and team B with 1.70 odd, if I chose team B which is 1.70odd to win and later the odd dropped to 1.65odd I will still play and lose while the underdog wins. This is to tell you that this games has a way it works. I just see this as a game of luck and nothing much. Weather you chose lt base on odd or team strength, it will still end at your favor or to your Lost.

[Nathrixxx]

Some gamblers always consider the odds before playing their games, this also affect their market decision on what to select in playing for that particular game, but it is better to force look at the condition of anything in consideration before picking a market for it and we should not be distracted by the odds as well, is more better we have close accuracy than making a prediction that may not turn a ringing opportunity for us based on the odds we are trying to accumulate.

[libert19]

But did we know that odds movement can also be tricky?

Just because the odds are dropping does not always mean the team is a guaranteed good pick, its just that sometimes the market overreacts, especially when a popular team is involved. Public bettors may push the line too much, and that can create better value on the other side. This is why line movement is important to understand. It gives bettors an idea of market sentiment, but it should not be followed blindly. The better question is not just “where is the money going?” but “is the new price still valuable?”

This reminds me of this team Mumbai Indians in the recently concluded IPL season (a cricket league), this MI franchise is one popular franchise in league and multiple times champion, and it used to be favorite for the good part of the season despite being in the lacklustre form, and here is me who used to wonder why are they are being heavy favorite, though as the season progressed looks like oddmakers eventually came to senses and corrected the odds accordingly (as they always do).

...

Q: Do you usually check odds movement before placing a bet?

Nope.

[Filicius]

Q: Do you usually check odds movement before placing a bet?

Thank you for your explanation Vaculin, and while I totally agree with you that these variations involve a clear change of feeling, and precisely because of the nature of the odds, measurable, I don't take the time and work to stop and analyse these variations to achieve greater knowledge and try to improve my results. For me the game is simply entertainment, the moment it takes too much effort it loses its fun.

[Ziskinberg]

For me the game is simply entertainment, the moment it takes too much effort it loses its fun.

If you are just a pure fan, that would be your mindset, but do you not know that sports betting is a billion-dollar industry? That means many people are really investing or risking their money there just to try to be profitable.

So if you already have that kind of mindset, of course you would look for all the necessary strategies that could be effective to win long term, and what OP referred to is just one of the strategies or factors to consider when sports handicapping.

[Russlenat]

So if you already have that kind of mindset, of course you would look for all the necessary strategies that could be effective to win long term, and what OP referred to is just one of the strategies or factors to consider when sports handicapping.

I have that kind of mindset dude, some would say they are just gambling for fun, but my definition of fun is different because it is more challenging and I aim to win long term.

For some, they might call it a stupid dream, but I believe some people really make a living from betting, so I do not think I am crazy for having that kind of dream. As long as I know my limit and I am responsible, no one can dictate how I spend my money in sports betting, that is my principle.

[Awaklara]

Q: Do you usually check odds movement before placing a bet?

I rarely pay attention to that, except when I’m planning to do live betting. Since I usually place bets before the match starts, I don’t really pay much attention to the changes in odds. 
Significant odds changes usually happen when one team takes an early lead. This can sometimes be tricky because the changes can be quite substantial.

[o48o]

Sports betting is not only about predicting which team will win, sometimes the movement of the odds before the match can tell a lot about how the betting market is reacting.

For example, if Team A opens at 2.10 and later drops to 1.80, that usually means a lot of money is coming in on Team A, or the bookmaker received new information that changed the expected probability. It could be any of the following..  injury news, lineup changes  or sharp bettors placing heavy bets early.

But did we know that odds movement can also be tricky?
Just because the odds are dropping does not always mean the team is a guaranteed good pick, its just that sometimes the market overreacts, especially when a popular team is involved. Public bettors may push the line too much, and that can create better value on the other side. This is why line movement is important to understand. It gives bettors an idea of market sentiment, but it should not be followed blindly. The better question is not just “where is the money going?” but “is the new price still valuable?”

Q: Do you usually check odds movement before placing a bet?

I used to, but i soon gave up as i couldn't tell heads or tails on what caused the change. It could be inside info, panic or that others are better reading how the game is going then me.
Anyway, i noticed that every time i made another bet because odds were more profitable, or i thought that change implies that other team is winning. Majority of the time it was still a wrong choice.

I guess you could use that data, but crowd psychology is hard to read then calculating the cloud movements, because so many things are affecting to it.

[Slow death]

I used to, but i soon gave up as i couldn't tell heads or tails on what caused the change. It could be inside info, panic or that others are better reading how the game is going then me.

When I place my bets, I do so before the game starts and sometimes even before the starting lineup is formally announced. That's why I've seen the odds fluctuate between one value before the official lineup is released and another afterward. However, this doesn't change my opinion about the game, and I don't see the odds rising or falling as having any significance; I only observe it as a coincidence. I don't know why anyone would take this kind of upward and downward movement in odds seriously.

[justdimin]

For example, if Team A opens at 2.10 and later drops to 1.80, that usually means a lot of money is coming in on Team A, or the bookmaker received new information that changed the expected probability. It could be any of the following..  injury news, lineup changes  or sharp bettors placing heavy bets early.

Yes, it's usually due to injury news. Sometimes the bettors get information before the bookie and they get in early at juicy odds. For example if you know LeBron is not playing today, you can quickly back the opposition team and later cash out your bet or simply hedge it.

Just because the odds are dropping does not always mean the team is a guaranteed good pick, its just that sometimes the market overreacts, especially when a popular team is involved.

Good point and true. But usually the odds are correct in most cases and if the odds move in a certain manner, it's almost always because of a good reason. If people suddenly start betting against Djokovic mid-game, they may have spotted an injury or fatigue or something like this that can potentially cause him to lose the match.

[Yorubek]

Some gamblers always consider the odds before playing their games, this also affect their market decision on what to select in playing for that particular game, but it is better to force look at the condition of anything in consideration before picking a market for it and we should not be distracted by the odds as well, is more better we have close accuracy than making a prediction that may not turn a ringing opportunity for us based on the odds we are trying to accumulate.

It is true that it is not right to place bets on a team without looking at everything about it, thinking that more money will be gained or obtained by betting on the match alone. We definitely need proper research about the match. It is very important to carefully review every aspect of the match, through which the chances of winning money can increase. However, there are some people who place bets without doing proper research about the match and only looking at the fact that more money will be obtained by winning. It is true that we cannot be confirm through gambling because the results are uncertain, but it is very important to place bets after doing proper research about a team.

[alastantiger]

Most times the fluctuations in a particular sport bookie can be attributed to sneaky moves to influence the bettors to focus on the likely to lose team for scammy sport bookies or casino but however, the truth is even if I keep checking the odds move, if I will loss , it’s definitely going to be a loss and nothing can change that so it’s best to go with your instinct and if you win you win.

After opening a bet I don't look at the game again until the end of the match because I don't want to get influence to make other bets or try to increase my stake to get a better chance of winning because of how I noticed the odds are begining to change from one team to another team. I know that there are many people manipulating the market just to get new gamblers to become more indecisive so that they can make money of them. We gamblers have to know how to take a decision and stand by that decision instead of being confused and influence by social media with their hype that are not always true, instead what we should learn to do is to stand by decision we have taken so that we can learn or celebrate the results that we get at the end of the day.

[Churchillvv]

Snip

After opening a bet I don't look at the game again until the end of the match because I don't want to get influence to make other bets or try to increase my stake to get a better chance of winning because of how I noticed the odds are begining to change from one team to another team. I know that there are many people manipulating the market just to get new gamblers to become more indecisive so that they can make money of them. We gamblers have to know how to take a decision and stand by that decision instead of being confused and influence by social media with their hype that are not always true, instead what we should learn to do is to stand by decision we have taken so that we can learn or celebrate the results that we get at the end of the day.

That is a good decision but sometimes it’s difficult for most people because they can’t stay off the platforms after staking so if one can learn to just set the game rolling and then leave it will be very possible to stand on a side even when the odds gets manipulated but however, we most understand that people are different so it’s not the way we think that is right for them so highest we can do is to make it more known to people but at the end what they decide stands over that is right! .

[Julien_Olynpic]

Pre-match odds movements can have predictive value, or they can be the result of a complex combination of factors. However, a drop in odds usually indicates increased confidence among bettors in the victory of the team or player whose odds have begun to decline. While this is a positive development, it also represents a potential decrease in winnings. Secondly, it may indicate that a lot of "dumb money" has been placed on this outcome, making it a safe bet.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

Sports betting is not only about predicting which team will win, sometimes the movement of the odds before the match can tell a lot about how the betting market is reacting.

For example, if Team A opens at 2.10 and later drops to 1.80, that usually means a lot of money is coming in on Team A, or the bookmaker received new information that changed the expected probability. It could be any of the following..  injury news, lineup changes  or sharp bettors placing heavy bets early.

But did we know that odds movement can also be tricky?
Just because the odds are dropping does not always mean the team is a guaranteed good pick, its just that sometimes the market overreacts, especially when a popular team is involved. Public bettors may push the line too much, and that can create better value on the other side. This is why line movement is important to understand. It gives bettors an idea of market sentiment, but it should not be followed blindly. The better question is not just “where is the money going?” but “is the new price still valuable?”

Q: Do you usually check odds movement before placing a bet?

I do check odd movement before placing my bet sometimes but still, this is no guarantee at all that you will win your bet, this analysis or what ever does not have any effect on how a football match will be played on the pitch, where the money is going the most does not change the course of a match except of the match is rigged.

I am not against analysis or whatever before placing bets, it's nice, it gets bettors busy and feeling like they are doing something very serious, but then, we have to tell ourselves the truth, the reality remains that no matter how much analysis we put into a match trying to increase our chances of betting for the right team, there is absolutely no guarantee, a bet that will be lost will still be lost and one that will be won will be won, because like I said before, no analysis, study or whatever changes the course of what will happen on a football pitch except the match is rigged.

[Bright0515]

Betting on a game few days before the match is very risky because there are some changes that might take place that might Make the odds to increase which indicates that the team you placed a bet on has a high chance of losing, some people call this odd manipulation by the bookies but it's not the bookies are also gamblers and they monitor what goes on with the teams before the games. This is the more reason why you must always remember to place your bets few hours before a game instead of betting days before the game.

[Samlucky O]

I do check odd movement before placing my bet sometimes but still, this is no guarantee at all that you will win your bet, this analysis or what ever does not have any effect on how a football match will be played on the pitch, where the money is going the most does not change the course of a match except of the match is rigged.

You are actually right mate, I have thought about this and I guess we are on thesame side. If odd changes because of one factor or the other doesn't mean that the game will change. It's just like predicting what will happen tomorrow maybe that "rain will fall or not" and majority of people like %80 place bet that rain will fall at 1.50odd , and only few maybe %20  predicted that rain will not fall at 5 odd, this does not mean that rain will fall because many people predicated it to fall at 1.50 odd. If I really fell, it's just luck and not because many people predicted it to fall.