Is expected value more important than win rate in sports betting?

[Kasabus]

What do you guys think about this, is win rate really the best way to judge a sports bettor?

Because I see a lot of bettors flexing their record, like 7 wins out of 10 bets, 8 wins out of 12, something like that. But sometimes when you look at the odds, most of those bets are very low odds, so the profit is not really that big. One bad losing streak and it can wipe out everything. On the other side, some bettors lose more tickets but still make profit because they take better odds and better value. So maybe it’s not really about how many bets you win, but if the odds you are taking are worth the risk.

For me, this is where sports betting becomes tricky. A winning bet does not always mean it was a good bet, and a losing bet does not always mean it was a bad one.

Do you agree with that? Or in the end, win rate still matters more for you?

[Fivestar4everMVP]

For me, this is where sports betting becomes tricky. A winning bet does not always mean it was a good bet, and a losing bet does not always mean it was a bad one.

Do you agree with that? Or in the end, win rate still matters more for you?

I agree with the statement above because myself I've always looked at the odds of each game that was claimed to be won more than the number of wins because just as you have rightly said, winning bets with small odds can be easier and on a bad day, just one loss can easily wipe out all the profit the bettor had initially made from the several small odd wins.

My love for big profit wins is why I usually place more value on parley betting tickets than single bet ticket knowing fully well that winning a parley is harder but comes with better profit than winning a single bet which definitely is less risky but also lesser profit.
When I try to copy other people's bet, I don't look at the number of bets they've won, I try to see what their average odd on all their bets is to ascertain whether the money that could be made back as profit if worth the amount of money being risked on stake.

[Charles-Tim]

We have discussed this on this board, but which can be in a different way. The gambling sites know how to set the odds in a way that it will only most likely favour themselves and not favour their customers which are the gamblers. Expected value is more important, but also not important because most odds are not favouring at all, only little to none will you see favouring. There are times you can be lucky and see some odds worth it, but not all the time. There are times you will think they you have seen a good odd, but the outcome may later be disappointing. Just bet for fun and make sure you are using little amount of money on it.

[Hispo]

What do you guys think about this, is win rate really the best way to judge a sports bettor?

Because I see a lot of bettors flexing their record, like 7 wins out of 10 bets, 8 wins out of 12, something like that. But sometimes when you look at the odds, most of those bets are very low odds, so the profit is not really that big. One bad losing streak and it can wipe out everything. On the other side, some bettors lose more tickets but still make profit because they take better odds and better value. So maybe it’s not really about how many bets you win, but if the odds you are taking are worth the risk.

For me, this is where sports betting becomes tricky. A winning bet does not always mean it was a good bet, and a losing bet does not always mean it was a bad one.

Do you agree with that? Or in the end, win rate still matters more for you?

I think the only way to have a clear and unbiased way to take a look at the perfornand of a bettor is have their initial betting capital and their final yield, that is an absolute way to judge how successful they are when compared to the rest of bettors who could be doing exactly the same. One could even include to the formula the number of beta they have taken, so we could divide the number of money they have gotten by the number of bets and have an idea of how much yield they get per bet.

For example, a bettor could tell you he has a very good winning rate up to 80 percent, when he actually bet just 5 bets a week.
While others bettor could tel you he has a 60 percent winning rate, but he has only bet three times.

So if one does not have enough information to have a clear picture of the performed of the person, it is kind of tricky to judge how good they actually are.

[Kasabus]

We have discussed this on this board, but which can be in a different way. The gambling sites know how to set the odds in a way that it will only most likely favour themselves and not favour their customers which are the gamblers. Expected value is more important, but also not important because most odds are not favouring at all, only little to none will you see favouring. There are times you can be lucky and see some odds worth it, but not all the time. There are times you will think they you have seen a good odd, but the outcome may later be disappointing. Just bet for fun and make sure you are using little amount of money on it.

Using the word “sometimes” can lead us to losses in the long run because we do not really record everything and evaluate if what we are doing actually leads to profit.

That is the point of the topic. It is the value that matters, and that is why I am sure those who only focus on taking odds like 1.20 to 1.30 will lose in the long run compared to those who take regular odds, where many serious bettors usually bet. I am talking about odds around 1.90 or 1.95 on some bookies with higher odds but the same line.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

We have discussed this on this board, but which can be in a different way. The gambling sites know how to set the odds in a way that it will only most likely favour themselves and not favour their customers which are the gamblers. Expected value is more important, but also not important because most odds are not favouring at all, only little to none will you see favouring. There are times you can be lucky and see some odds worth it, but not all the time. There are times you will think they you have seen a good odd, but the outcome may later be disappointing. Just bet for fun and make sure you are using little amount of money on it.

Using the word “sometimes” can lead us to losses in the long run because we do not really record everything and evaluate if what we are doing actually leads to profit.

That is the point of the topic. It is the value that matters, and that is why I am sure those who only focus on taking odds like 1.20 to 1.30 will lose in the long run compared to those who take regular odds, where many serious bettors usually bet. I am talking about odds around 1.90 or 1.95 on some bookies with higher odds but the same line.

You are absolutely right and I completely agree, those who bet on low odds are mostly the ones who are at risk of losing in the long term because as a bettor, there is an amount of money you can win from betting and in years to come, you will still be doing very OK because you are still very much in profit.

Let's see a simple example, someone bets $10 on a team with 1.25 odds, he or she is going to win $12.5 dollars, but myself choose to bet the same $10 on a team with 2.05 odds, I am going to win $20.5 dollars, now imagine the other player places another bet of $10 at same odds of 1.25 and won another $12.5, he now has a total amount of $15, that is $10 capital and $5 profit, even if myself place my next $10 bet and lost, I will have $10.5 profit from my last win even though my capital is gone, now, imagine we both lost, the other bettor will have to make a deposit to continue gambling while myself can continue with my previous profit assuming $10 was the minimum that can used to bet.

[Darker45]

Why are we betting, in the first place? I believe sports betting isn't just picking who wins or who loses. It's not just about being right and wrong in terms of picks. It's about whether you're profitable or not. What's the point of winning 8 out of 10 when you're losing in terms of money?

If whether your guess is right or wrong is what matters, then you don't have to go into sports betting. You just have to make a guess. That's for free. But since you're staking money, what truly matters is that it gives you returns. In which case, it's secondary that you only won 3 out of 10. What matters most is that despite that, you're profitable.

[Kasabus]

If whether your guess is right or wrong is what matters, then you don't have to go into sports betting. You just have to make a guess. That's for free. But since you're staking money, what truly matters is that it gives you returns. In which case, it's secondary that you only won 3 out of 10. What matters most is that despite that, you're profitable.

But the question is, are many people really aware of what they are doing?

I mean, some are just running a business and putting in capital without even looking at the financial statement.

Many gamblers think like that too, and their way to justify it is, why would I check? I am just doing it for fun.

Business means being serious.
Gambling means fun.

That should (is) be their mindset.

[SPIDERMAN008]

Why are we betting, in the first place? I believe sports betting isn't just picking who wins or who loses. It's not just about being right and wrong in terms of picks. It's about whether you're profitable or not. What's the point of winning 8 out of 10 when you're losing in terms of money?

If whether your guess is right or wrong is what matters, then you don't have to go into sports betting. You just have to make a guess. That's for free. But since you're staking money, what truly matters is that it gives you returns. In which case, it's secondary that you only won 3 out of 10. What matters most is that despite that, you're profitable.

You are speaking very realistically. In fact, gamblers see profit in the end. Because if they do not make a profit after gambling regularly, they feel upset mentally. Since I myself bet for entertainment with a small amount, then if I lose regularly and notice that I do not make a profit at the end of the week, then I also feel bad. And those who bet with a very large amount, if they do not see a profit, their mental state becomes bad. Therefore, it does not matter how many matches they win or lose, but if they do not make a profit at the end of the day, it really has an effect in real life. I have noticed that many gamblers are losing consistently, but they are hoping for a big jackpot where they will get all the money they lost at once and will be in a profitable state.

[Alpha Marine]

Because I see a lot of bettors flexing their record, as 7 wins out of 10 bets, 8 wins out of 12, something like that. But sometimes when you look at the odds, most of those bets are very low odds, so the profit is not really that big. One bad losing streak and it can wipe out everything. On the other side, some bettors lose more tickets but still make a profit because they take better odds and better value. So maybe it’s not really about how many b
This is why things should always be taken into context at every time. When you just see a guy who wins often and say he's better than a guy who wins once in a while, without looking at the context, you make a poor decision.
A guy who wins 2-3 odds every week and a guy who wins 500 odds every 3-4 months are not the same. To make good money out of a 2 odd stake, you would need to stake high, but with a stake of $20, you can win $1000 on a 500 odds bet.
So before you judge, take things into perspective.

But it doesn't hurt to stake on small odds and win regularly as long as you're in profit. Winning 5 odds every week is a good way to be profitable, as long as you don't stake more than you're winning. Win rate matters, but you should be profitable at it.

[len01]

I definitely agree with your point. Choosing low odds while taking on a high level of risk is like risking something valuable for very little reward. That's why many bettors sometimes prefer bigger risks with better odds, either by placing parlay bets or by backing higher odds selections where the potential payout is more in line with the risk involved.

Some bettors may prefer low odds because they believe it's better to win small amounts consistently, and over time those winnings can add up. However, they often overlook the risks that come with those bets.

[Africolo]

We have discussed this on this board, but which can be in a different way. The gambling sites know how to set the odds in a way that it will only most likely favour themselves and not favour their customers which are the gamblers. Expected value is more important, but also not important because most odds are not favouring at all, only little to none will you see favouring. There are times you can be lucky and see some odds worth it, but not all the time. There are times you will think they you have seen a good odd, but the outcome may later be disappointing. Just bet for fun and make sure you are using little amount of money on it.

This is so true, all gambling sites are designed to favor themselves than the gambler and they set odds that no matter the strategies one uses it will still fall back to favor them at the end of the day, I know how many bets I have staked and had hopes that I won't loose but you will be surprised to see how narrowly you will still loose the bet, it's so annoying most times but you just have to know that's how gambling is designed, you can't be favored except you are lucky.

The best way of enjoying gambling from past experience and with what you have said is just to play for fun and  forget about winning nor depending so much on it for survival, that way you can confidently go to sleep knowing fully well that you have nothing to loose in case you didn't win because you are not playing for profit rather than having fun and every one should try and bet with the little amount they can afford to loose at all times.

[rachael9385]

I definitely agree with your point. Choosing low odds while taking on a high level of risk is like risking something valuable for very little reward. That's why many bettors sometimes prefer bigger risks with better odds, either by placing parlay bets or by backing higher odds selections where the potential payout is more in line with the risk involved.

Some bettors may prefer low odds because they believe it's better to win small amounts consistently, and over time those winnings can add up. However, they often overlook the risks that come with those bets.

But when betting on low odds people usually stake a high amount of money which makes it even more risky. Staking high to chase a small win to me isn't really worth it because we all know nothing is guaranteed in betting and it's stupid to lose a huge amount just because of a small win.

[Gozie51]

For me, this is where sports betting becomes tricky. A winning bet does not always mean it was a good bet, and a losing bet does not always mean it was a bad one.

Do you agree with that? Or in the end, win rate still matters more for you?

You are right to an extent with the value thing because sometimes you have winning rates that won't amount to anything because of the very low odds and betting sites are intentional about that. They will give a very low odd to team that they are sure will win their match, so that if you bet and win, it will amount to nothing much especially if you didn't stake high and staking higher is also tricky.

Sometimes I calculate the winning of a bet slip according to how much potential and if the amount of odd is quite low, I might consider it not necessary. I could either take the risk of moderate odd as single game rather than clustering 5/6 games that would amount to odd less than 3 because out of those 5/6 games, 1/2 may still be unsuccessful.

[Nrcewker]

The people flexing these win rates are some of the most foolish people I have ever seen. The frequency of wins shouldn’t matter; what should matter is the amount of money they have won. As the OP said, a few small wins and one big loss can easily push your bankroll into the negative. Therefore, people who constantly show off their win rate are nothing more than attention seekers. Don’t be influenced by this number. Instead, focus on making more money overall rather than simply winning more bets.

[Ruttoshi]

The people flexing these win rates are some of the most foolish people I have ever seen. The frequency of wins shouldn’t matter; what should matter is the amount of money they have won. As the OP said, a few small wins and one big loss can easily push your bankroll into the negative. Therefore, people who constantly show off their win rate are nothing more than attention seekers. Don’t be influenced by this number. Instead, focus on making more money overall rather than simply winning more bets.

It's not easy to make more money in gambling without winning more bets because there's no magic that can make that happen. This is the reason why majority of gamblers are chasing profit because they are after winning big which the chance of that happening is very slim.

I have a gambling budget and I don't care if I lose it all because it's an amount that I can afford to lose. For that reason, I go for small odds because winning is a good feeling irrespective of the amount of money won.

[viljy]

More important than the percentage of bets won is how large a percentage of the profit the bettor received relative to the amount of bets. If one person's one bet brought him 300% profit, and another person's ten bets brought 30% profit each, the second person simply spent his energy on unnecessary fuss, thinking that the risk is lower. In fact, the more bets there are, even if they are "guaranteed", the greater the risk.

So the search for value among bets is more justified than the strategy of "carpet bombing bets". Although this is just my personal subjective opinion. Everyone chooses their own strategy, which is comfortable for them.

[CryptoYar]

Anybody can achieve flashy streak betting on huge favorites, but odds risk reward is garbage from beginning to end, and minute reality sets in and few surprises occur, little profits get swept away. Being in game of sports betting for long term is all about finding value and not about winning every game. You can win less than you lose and still be well on your way to bank if you are always playing on top of bookmakers that are incorrectly calculating real chance of something happening. You cant determine your bet strategy from short term results. That is why most regular bettors never make it out of negative and end up bragging on social media for no good reason.

[YellowSwap]

This is true, it's better to place bet on valuable matches and lose than to take risks on valueless games and win small amount of money but why we all gamble is not the same.

I understand OP very well, I feel it's wise to be picky around games, this cut down unnecessary losses too, and if luck is on your side finally you will win something meaningful.

Still, some people gamble for different reasons, unlike the majority, odds and chances aren't that much of a worry for such people.

[Sammye3]

Winning rate would always be more important to me than the value, as long as the wins are consistent I would likely increase my stake to make more profits. This is way more better than losing out on big odds every single time because it is never assured with gambling but it is near possible with small odds.

I've learned not to be too greedy with my winnings and that has being my drive for more successful betting career. Betting is close to 100% predictable when you size down your risk to the barest minimum no matter the profits you make. A small consistent winnings streak is more reliable than consistent losses with a valued win over time.