Are “safe bets” really safe, or just overpriced?

[Obim34]

Well, Bosnia beat Wales & Italy on penalties... so it's not like they are weak. And every World Cup we have some surprises, maybe this time Bosnia will surprise us all... I guess we will know more after their next game.

Their performance yesterday showed me enough, defeating Wales and Italy is just a turn of event we see sometimes in football, it doesn't mean they are strong, in the match against Canada, they were weak and any other better country will capitalize on their weakness, against Switzerland, I'm sure it will be something else to watch.

[Rockson1]

You don't have to tell me again. It has happened to me many times. It has happened to me yesterday again. Canada was my favorite and put my hope them to win, I predicted for them to win with physical argument with people and in the forum and also spent up to N12,000 ($8) but Canada decided to play nonsense yesterday. Till now I am not alright. Safe bet are not really safe but the matter what, your luck is needed.

You just nailed it here, generally despite how sure we are in our prediction, it doesn't mena that our bet is safe, it can go a different way from what we expect that just the game.
I hev one played 1.10 odd before and it did not come as I expected it to, I believe other people here has also experienced that, one thing about bet is that, we shouldn't just put our mind much because many factors can change the result, just imagine, how would have even believed that canada will not will that match, the my even have to equalized when they are supposed to be the one leading but that is football, luck is the game I agree with you on that and we should accept that fact.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Safe bets are not determined by favorite team, as an experience bettor, a safe bet is the pick that you chose because your analysis has determined that such pick is what has the better chance to give you a win, whether overpriced or not. You have to confirm the level of chance that game have before you actually say you are going to bet on it, unless you are just a newbie who has no strategy in making analysis. If I choose to bet on a game that I believe to be safe simply because it looks safe without doing a verification, I might not actually win.

[Emjay24]

Many bettors like to pick the favorite because it feels safer. Strong team, better players, better record, so it looks like the obvious side to take.

But that is where the trap can start.

Sportsbooks already know most people will run to the favorite, so the odds or spread can become too expensive. The team may still win, but the bet itself might not be good anymore because the value is gone. This is why I’m starting to think that a safe-looking bet can still be a bad bet. Maybe the question should not be “will this team win?” but “am I paying too much for this pick?”

For those who do sports betting, do you still trust favorites when the odds are low, or do you avoid them once the price looks too expensive?

For me What makes the favorites look like a bad bet is because of the huge capital involved to secure a tangible win from it, especially when it is singled. When you win, the profits are little compared to the capital you loose. Most people pay too much for the pick and losses are very expensive and annoying. Personally I look out for value bets and try my chances of making profits from them and of course I love some few combinations into a parlay so I would not be staking with too much a capital to have a nice pot. winning.

[Russlenat]

Safe bets are not determined by favorite team, as an experience bettor, a safe bet is the pick that you chose because your analysis has determined that such pick is what has the better chance to give you a win, whether overpriced or not. You have to confirm the level of chance that game have before you actually say you are going to bet on it, unless you are just a newbie who has no strategy in making analysis. If I choose to bet on a game that I believe to be safe simply because it looks safe without doing a verification, I might not actually win.

But most of the time, bettors consider their bet safe because they believe the team they chose will win since it is heavily favored.

Tell me, based on your experience, if you ever think a bet is safe, is that bet not a favorite in the betting odds? Because if it is not, and you still think it is a safe bet, then you are probably not among the many bettors who just blindly follow the favorites.

[shawonngp]

I think many bettors try to make safe bets whatever odds are high or low, they pick the favorite team not only that is their favorite, also it can be a strong team, and how many times they won in the world cup, who just blindly choose their favorite team, I think it is just their emotional decision, they don't bet to win. I also sometimes pick favorite team when I think opponent team is not good, then it is possible to win by choosing favorite team.If that team squad is strong and hardworking. But no one can give you 100% safe bet or winning guarantee if you pick your favorite team.

[Pandu Geddon]

I will try to look for better possible opportunities than the available market for that match. The favorite team will get odds that aren't good. Clearly not profitable for betting. Some people accumulate with other matches, but others will look for more interesting markets. Every bet will definitely consider value.

[Emjay24]

Safe bets are not determined by favorite team, as an experience bettor, a safe bet is the pick that you chose because your analysis has determined that such pick is what has the better chance to give you a win, whether overpriced or not. You have to confirm the level of chance that game have before you actually say you are going to bet on it, unless you are just a newbie who has no strategy in making analysis. If I choose to bet on a game that I believe to be safe simply because it looks safe without doing a verification, I might not actually win.

But most of the time, bettors consider their bet safe because they believe the team they chose will win since it is heavily favored.

Tell me, based on your experience, if you ever think a bet is safe, is that bet not a favorite in the betting odds? Because if it is not, and you still think it is a safe bet, then you are probably not among the many bettors who just blindly follow the favorites.

I don't believe a bet is safe even if a first division team is playing against a third division team with an odd as low as 1.10, there's still every possibility they will loose that match an as long as there's a possibility of not getting the desired result, the bet isn't safe for me. I only believe in higher possibilities and I pick a selection based on my predicted possibilities irrespective of the odds it is assigned. I don't really follow the favorites based on odds, unless I have a good reason to believe they're are actual favorites.

[qwertyup23]

<..snip..>
For those who do sports betting, do you still trust favorites when the odds are low, or do you avoid them once the price looks too expensive?

It depends but generally I do stick with the favorite team to win NOT because they are the "favorites" but because they have the data and stats that can possibly overwhelm their opponent in the given game.

If you are playing sports-betting and your decision lies solely on the favorite team to win, then you are putting yourself at some risk if you do it without any research on your part. We all know that the sports-betting company has already made all the necessary adjustments to tilt the win on their favor regardless which team would win.

I will try to look for better possible opportunities than the available market for that match. The favorite team will get odds that aren't good. Clearly not profitable for betting. Some people accumulate with other matches, but others will look for more interesting markets. Every bet will definitely consider value.

I agree with you. A favorite team means that the odds are sometimes not that worth it given the risks still involved. Even if the favorite team to win is stronger in terms of overall stats, I still bet on the opposite team just because the odds are just really good for me not to attempt to miss it.

[ralle14]

I still trust the favorites, but only a handful of them when it comes to teams they should never lose against. I've had too many favorites spoiling my parlays, and no matter how safe they look on paper, it's unbelievable how they could disappoint whenever you expect them to deliver.

If the bookies keep overrating them, then I would skip or consider taking the points with the opposing team because they sometimes take a while to react so it wouldn't hurt to grab them while they're still viewed as doubtful.

[Slow death]

I have a rule I set for myself: I don't value the favorite chosen by the bookmaker. I prefer to personally analyze the game and then conclude who the real favorite is. Only after I've determined who the favorite is do I place my bet on the favorite. That's why I don't fall for the "sure bet" thing; even bets with odds of @1.10 can be wrong. I've lost many bets because of games with odds of @1.10 when I made a parlay. The best thing everyone needs to do is analyze the game on their own first and only then bet.

[Churchillvv]

In sport betting, the underdogs can win too there is always a probability chance which is called the double chance and that’s the way I go about it when I have doubt on the favourite and if anyone plays this way they probably understand the fact that anyone can win and it’s about players and sometimes the energy they bring in to the field and who they are, but however, it’s obviously not true that we have a safe bet but sometimes some types of plays are safer than others, which is what we are talking about as double chance.

[Wakate]

Safe bets are not determined by favorite team, as an experience bettor, a safe bet is the pick that you chose because your analysis has determined that such pick is what has the better chance to give you a win, whether overpriced or not. You have to confirm the level of chance that game have before you actually say you are going to bet on it, unless you are just a newbie who has no strategy in making analysis. If I choose to bet on a game that I believe to be safe simply because it looks safe without doing a verification, I might not actually win.

Gambling responsibly should be our focus as gamblers and the only way we can gamble safe is when we are betting with amount that we know we can afford to lose. Picking a good game that will result in profit can be hard to know if it involves two big team that are good on the pitch and a big rival. Football analysis does not only determine a safe bet, there are other factors we need to consider when gambling.

[WhoYouCantKill]

I will try to look for better possible opportunities than the available market for that match. The favorite team will get odds that aren't good. Clearly not profitable for betting. Some people accumulate with other matches, but others will look for more interesting markets. Every bet will definitely consider value.

The bookmakers have mastered the act of using odds to confuse players, so sometimes or should I say most times, it’s not even about the odds because the odds doesn’t guarantee victory at all. I can remember the number of times that I’ve been deceived by odds and that has taught me a valuable lesson, never to trust the odds completely.

[rachael9385]

There is nothing like a safe bet when it comes to betting, we can only do what we can to reduce the risks by staking low and doing a lot of research but even all of these does not guarantee profits, you still have to be on the safe side by staking an amount of money that you can afford to lose.

[JunaidAzizi]

Yeah, you clarify the reality that most bettors don't know, and they rush for their favorite team or go with the favorites. But they don't realize that when they are going with the favorites, it has no value. They might think that by themselves, they can only get the maximum possible profits from it. So when everyone is placing their bets and the odds are too low, and the team wins, that doesn't really mean much because the profits are too low. In fact, you can take a better approach and bet on Team B. If they win, then you get the highest returns on your bet.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

There are no 100% safe bets and to be honest what one might consider as a really safe bet usually has very low odds so the risk/reward ratio makes it unattractive.

For example Man City to beat Coventry at The Etihad might he 1/4 odds. Do you really want to be $4,000 to make $1,000 profit? What if Man City get a player sent off in the first 5 minutes?

[macson]

I just saw a thread about someone who lost so much money just to pick up so little money. He thought that it was a safe bet so he had concluded that it was a guaranteed bet, but he ended up losing horribly. So from there I think that all bets are the same, there is still risk involved in it, and we as bettors need to bet according to what we can afford, even if the odds are very small, just ignore it if possible because I think it's not worth taking.

[fredericktaylor]

I think there is no such thing as a safe bet through gambling because through gambling we can never be confirm, at the end of the day there is no confirmed that the result of gambling will be as per our expectations so I cannot say there is anything safe through gambling. Through gambling we can only adopt proper awareness nothing more than that because the result of gambling depends on luck, if luck is good then we can win and if luck is not good then it is not possible to win.

[leonair]

Many bettors like to pick the favorite because it feels safer. Strong team, better players, better record, so it looks like the obvious side to take.

But that is where the trap can start.

Sportsbooks already know most people will run to the favorite, so the odds or spread can become too expensive. The team may still win, but the bet itself might not be good anymore because the value is gone. This is why I’m starting to think that a safe-looking bet can still be a bad bet. Maybe the question should not be “will this team win?” but “am I paying too much for this pick?”

For those who do sports betting, do you still trust favorites when the odds are low, or do you avoid them once the price looks too expensive?

No bet is safe and there is no guarantee of winning. All bets have risks. However, when a good team is playing, that team is considered more likely to win. And many times those teams win. However, it can never be guaranteed that any team will win. Anything can happen at any time in the game, nothing can be said for sure in advance. When someone thinks a bet is safe, it is just an overconfidence for him, he is not safe in any way.