Are “safe bets” really safe, or just overpriced?

[Kasabus]

Many bettors like to pick the favorite because it feels safer. Strong team, better players, better record, so it looks like the obvious side to take.

But that is where the trap can start.

Sportsbooks already know most people will run to the favorite, so the odds or spread can become too expensive. The team may still win, but the bet itself might not be good anymore because the value is gone. This is why I’m starting to think that a safe-looking bet can still be a bad bet. Maybe the question should not be “will this team win?” but “am I paying too much for this pick?”

For those who do sports betting, do you still trust favorites when the odds are low, or do you avoid them once the price looks too expensive?

[Fivestar4everMVP]

For those who do sports betting, do you still trust favorites when the odds are low, or do you avoid them once the price looks too expensive?

Imagine a favorite having an odd like 1.15 of something even lower and some bettors will still be trooping to bet on such odd, I am definitely not one of such bettors because to me, an odd like this have completely lost its value even if the team is going to win the match, I will rather not bet on such a game that accept to risk my hard earned money on such ridiculous odds.

And sometimes or should I say most times, odds like this are are the reason why most bettors lose huge amount of money in betting because betting on low odds like this requires upping your stake amount so that the potential profit could also come up a bit, now imagine at the end of the day, a team with such odds end up losing the match and you ended up losing your money, first question you ask yourself is, "was the odd worth the risk?", and the answer is definitely a big and capital "NO".

[Darker45]

I guess a sports bettor don't just pick a team because it's the favorite. Whether it seems obvious they're winning against its opponent, there must still be analysis. You don't just bet on the heavy favorite automatically. Sometimes, you also bet on the underdog, but it's also not simply because you're attracted to its odds. Whether you're betting on the favorite or the underdog, it must be a bet founded on analysis, on convincing reasons why your team would win. Otherwise, you won't have any safe bet.

[Achalugo BTC]

For those who do sports betting, do you still trust favorites when the odds are low, or do you avoid them once the price looks too expensive?

It depends, some bettors do trust their favourites because they trust their value more, not minding how low their odds is and to some they believe to even have the high chances of winning, I do think like that and sometimes it worked for me, I do place bet with the team that has low odds, sometimes I picked my favourites, sometimes I don't and any team that has low odds usually win. But, you know in gambling, everyone has their own safety measures and what they value as well, moreover people don't joke with game, but safe gambling is more preferable as it will sustain the fun in the game.

[Hispo]

Many bettors like to pick the favorite because it feels safer. Strong team, better players, better record, so it looks like the obvious side to take.

But that is where the trap can start.

Sportsbooks already know most people will run to the favorite, so the odds or spread can become too expensive. The team may still win, but the bet itself might not be good anymore because the value is gone. This is why I’m starting to think that a safe-looking bet can still be a bad bet. Maybe the question should not be “will this team win?” but “am I paying too much for this pick?”

For those who do sports betting, do you still trust favorites when the odds are low, or do you avoid them once the price looks too expensive?

I avoid favorites if the odds are not even worth my time and money, anything below x1.25 or x1.30 would not be easily considerated by me to be good enough for me to bet on it.

I have already read and watched some horror stories in which there is an obvious favorite team which was expected to win easily, so some crazy bettors betted heavily at odds as low as x1.01 and still risking to lose their money. That is not a smart move, even if feels like free or easy money, because the risk of having to risk one hundred dollars to get a single  dollar back is not something any intelligent bettor would take.

It is better to do with bets who offer x1.50 or x2.00, so we can use our own sport analysis to force a good prediction on the outcome, getting an edge against other bettors.

[yahoo62278]

I try to avoid low odds bets but will toss 1 in a parlay now and then just to increase my overall odds. They're the favorite for a reason usually, although I feel like only if betting a moneyline bet and not a spread bet. I think taking the points in games such as the NBA or NFL football are usually the better bet as alot of teams don't cover. I've been taking the Spurs moneyline alot when they are the underdogs in a game and been doing ok doing so as they have been the underdogs away from home.

[fullfitlarry]

For those who do sports betting, do you still trust favorites when the odds are low, or do you avoid them once the price looks too expensive?

We really don't know if it is a trap setup by sports bookies or not, perhaps that is the data that they come up, so it's base on numbers and nothing to do with trying to get us to bet on low odds on the favorite but then they know that the underdog might have a good chance (that is for me the definition of trap).

But if you are gambler that might see it as a trap then avoid that game and look for other games that might have a good value in favorite or if you see that the underdog based on your analysis can pull an upset win.

[Sandra_hakeem]

Many bettors like to pick the favorite because it feels safer. Strong team, better players, better record, so it looks like the obvious side to take.

But that is where the trap can start.

Sportsbooks already know most people will run to the favorite, so the odds or spread can become too expensive. The team may still win, but the bet itself might not be good anymore because the value is gone.

Meanwhile, we have thousands of them scrolling through every league to pick these type of games, some with odds as low as 1.17. how much win can you get with a thousand dollar bet on that? Probably just a little fraction on top, but you can lose the thousand even though the game looks very promising.

This is why I’m starting to think that a safe-looking bet can still be a bad bet. Maybe the question should not be “will this team win?” but “am I paying too much for this pick?”

One of the shittiest lies ever sold to these gamblers are that selecting and betting on smaller odds automatically means safe- betting.

For those who do sports betting, do you still trust favorites when the odds are low, or do you avoid them once the price looks too expensive?

I can't recall betting on any odd below 1.35. Even at that, I still don't do group betting with them.

[yhiaali3]

This reminds me of the topic we discussed earlier here about the news of the gambler who lost $55,000 to earn only $1,000 because he bet on very low odds (1.01) because he thought the bet was very safe so he bet a large amount but lost in the end.

This is a vivid example of how safe bets are not entirely safe and can cause huge losses due to misplaced overconfidence, which led this gambler, for example, to lose $55,000.
Therefore, in reality, it is not always safe.

[maydna]

If they do that, they might lose. They should know that the match can change so they should considers to do analysis. I am not just look at favorite team but I also check the probability on both team. If opponent team have more chances to win from the favorite, I will not go with the favorite team. Safe bets for me is when I know how much money I will use to bet and not because favorite.

[jeremypwr]

I've lost too many what I thought would be "safe bets" to lose count.
Truth of the matter is that no bet is entirely safe considering all the variance in sports betting.

[Kasabus]

Otherwise, you won't have any safe bet.

But is this "safe bet" a real thing? ( considering you did all what you said).

I've lost too many what I thought would be "safe bets" to lose count.
Truth of the matter is that no bet is entirely safe considering all the variance in sports betting.

you're a real gambler, you tell your stories based on your real experience.
<<< Kudos >>

[Ishicryptic]

You can feel whatever you want about a team whether it's the favorite or underdog but where your focus should lie is on the amount that you are willing to stake because in the end anything can happen in the game to destabilize your well executed plan. No bets is actually safe in the real sense because if it does you will use your all your money to stake it and that is why there is need for caution so you don't overprice it and regret later. So no matter the level of your confidence you should use amount that you are comfortable to loose, that is the only way to be on the safe side.

[Oasisman]

I think this type of bet discussion is very similar to this https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5585558.msg66827046#msg66827046, which can give you a clear comparison between gambling just to win your bets, or finding a bet that has significant value and making a profit from it.  
Most experienced gamblers don't rely on "safer bets" because they always come with low odds, which means you need to risk more for a dime. I won't say it's overpriced as well, because that's supposed to be how the odds should look like for the heavy favourites. Otherwise, bookmakers would go bankrupt in no time.
But actually, there are literally no "safe bets". Any bets can lose regardless of how big the chances are to win. Though it can be sustainable for quite some time, until one huge upset can make a huge difference in a bad way, financially, lol.

Any odds can be a trap, though.

[len01]

This reminds me of a case where a bettor bet on odds @1.01 with a stake $1m and he lost all his money when the team that looked strong and was favored actually lost the match.

For those who do sports betting, do you still trust favorites when the odds are low, or do you avoid them once the price looks too expensive?

Ever since I saw so many cases of gamblers losing big money by betting on heavy favorites, I started thinking that it's better to choose slightly higher odds that actually match the level of risk I'm taking. That's why I often bet on prop bets that most gamblers tend to overlook but that offer much better value and odds.

[Kasabus]

This reminds me of a case where a bettor bet on odds @1.01 with a stake $1m and he lost all his money when the team that looked strong and was favored actually lost the match.

This is not the same, as chasing 1.01 is either plain stupidity or greediness ( or both)

For those who do sports betting, do you still trust favorites when the odds are low, or do you avoid them once the price looks too expensive?

Ever since I saw so many cases of gamblers losing big money by betting on heavy favorites, I started thinking that it's better to choose slightly higher odds that actually match the level of risk I'm taking. That's why I often bet on prop bets that most gamblers tend to overlook but that offer much better value and odds.

Higher odds, lower odds, some gamblers have different definition about that.

So you, what is higher/lower odds for you, give at least some figures.

[Julien_Olynpic]

Betting on the favorite can be safe if your goal is simply to win or win a small amount, but you're willing to lose 10 times that amount—your stake. However, it's generally an extremely unprofitable proposition. That's why I prefer not to bet on favorites. The fact that betting on favorites is so popular among mass bettors is simply a testament to their skill and long-term understanding of betting. In short, betting on the favorite is for people who value winning over profit.

[bitbollo]

The only "safe" bets are...already closed! There are no safe bets.
This is an easy rule for any kind of activity related gambling. You can just lose in any time of an event.
Thats all. You can try to bet in events that could appear easy to find, but there are no bets that will allow you certain to win.
Gambling on favourite? Can be an "idea" but I wouldn't expect nothing to happens in the long term....

[Outhue]

The odds are very low and losing the bet is also possible but I have had more wins on small odds than those with high odds, but not always and I guess this is why some people go for many matches because those how much they win from a bet is very important to them, I don't gamble in sports every time, but when I do it's my own choice, how much I will make doesn't really matters that much, if odds are not good enough for you and the other team with the smaller odds will surely win then it's better not to take such risk.

[AHOYBRAUSE]

If there were safe bets the betting industry would not exist or offer reasonable bets, plain and simple.
Good example today is this match I found like 2 hours ago, they are playing now:

https://www.flashscore.com/match/basketball/keilor-thunder-UXQ57gTI/sandringham-sabres-Mk4npqsK/?mid=z53eg2jU

Sandringham is first place with a 12:1 record, Keilor 6th with 9:5 . The odds for this were almost 1.8x for Sandringham, classic trap. This team scores 82 points on average, now in the first half they scored 19, hahaha.
They don't even miss any players, which is the strangest part and last time they played in Keilor (2 months ago), Sandringham won easy and had1.03 odds.

The strangest things you see sometimes. When it looks like a trap, feels like a trap and smells like a trap, it must be one.