Can peace news really make Bitcoin bounce back?

[yudi09]

If Bitcoin is supposed to be independent from the traditional market and global politics, why does it still move like other risk assets every time there is war fear or peace news?
Maybe this is where the debate starts. Is Bitcoin really acting like a safe haven, or is it still just another asset that follows market emotion?

What causes prices to rise or fall isn’t a global political event, but rather people’s buying and selling activities in the market. The impact of global politics affects the confidence of market participants who are buying and selling. If the market is positive due to global political influences or interest rates, investor confidence will be affected. That doesn’t mean Bitcoin depends on what you’re referring to.

[ColdLava40]

Do you think this kind of news can start a real recovery, or is it just another short-term pump because traders found a reason to buy?

They are not yet serious on making a peace talk.

We have had several peace talk news the past few weeks, but every time they get close to concluding one, another tension spikes up. The general market would respond to the peace talks, same as Bitcoin.

During the times of war, when other assets were responding violently to each tweet from trump and Iran, Bitcoin show an exceeding behavior to fundamentals. It remain still to it's short upward move which should be enough to conclude that Bitcoin is really a safe heaven.

[YOSHIE]

Do you think this kind of news can start a real recovery, or is it just another short-term pump because traders found a reason to buy?

I think that since Bitcoin was created and operates in the crypto market, there have been many wars in various countries, such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Russia and so on, but none of that has affected Bitcoin in the market, I think the US vs. Iran does too.

I am more confident that Bitcoin's recovery will occur due to positive policies from various countries, especially the US in the economic sector, the reason is because Bitcoin is not only used in Iran or the US, all countries use Bitcoin, if other countries adopt it on a large scale and the economy improves, I believe Bitcoin will recover automatically.

[macson]

Do you think this kind of news can start a real recovery, or is it just another short-term pump because traders found a reason to buy?

This is only a short-term bullish trend. There's no need to place too much faith in such a movement, as it's only a temporary market reaction and doesn't necessarily indicate a market recovery. Moreover, when the market is trending bearish, such upward movements are only short-term --- the price will likely continue to decline, possibly falling to $50k or even lower.

[VarJames]

I think it is too early to call it a real recovery.

As long as the situation in the Middle East is not fully resolved, many investors will probably stay cautious with risk assets, including Bitcoin. Even if there is some positive ceasefire news, the market can react quickly, but that does not mean confidence is fully back.

I also saw reports recently that several billion dollars left the crypto market over the last month, including outflows from ETFs. So for me, this looks more like a short-term reaction to news rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

Bitcoin may be independent as a network, but the price is still traded by people, funds, and institutions. And when there is geopolitical uncertainty, they often reduce risk first and ask questions later.

So I would not be surprised to see a pump on good news, but I think the market needs more time and more clarity before we can say that a real recovery has started. i guess..

[akamit]

Bitcoin is not tied to any economy

Bitcoin may not be tied to a single country's economy, but to say it is not tied at all is not the case imo.

- It is still moving with global liquidity
- It is still responds to risk on/off sentiment
- It is still affected by broader market conditions

So while it is not tied to a single country, imo it is inevitably connected to the larger economy.

[Zanab247]

Since we know that one or two countries are not the ones controlling the price of BTC, there is no way U.S and Iran will be controlling the price of BTC, because there are many countries that invested in BTC and even though those countries are into crisis it will not affect the price of BTC. The only way peace news can make BTC price to bounce back is when the whole world pronounce BTC legal tender that is when the price will pump higher for sellers to make what they have not earn before.

Even when the war was going on, the price of BTC was high in the market before it started dumping to enter this current price that is allowing people to be bold to enter market to buy BTC, because is a season many people have be waiting for so that they will use the opportunity to hodl plenty of BTC.

[Zorellian]

Since we know that one or two countries are not the ones controlling the price of BTC, there is no way U.S and Iran will be controlling the price of BTC, because there are many countries that invested in BTC and even though those countries are into crisis it will not affect the price of BTC. The only way peace news can make BTC price to bounce back is when the whole world pronounce BTC legal tender that is when the price will pump higher for sellers to make what they have not earn before.

Even when the war was going on, the price of BTC was high in the market before it started dumping to enter this current price that is allowing people to be bold to enter market to buy BTC, because is a season many people have be waiting for so that they will use the opportunity to hodl plenty of BTC.

The war ongoing will not make the price of bitcoin to drop because the two countries are not capable of holding or to analyze how bitcoin will be, so I don’t have the believe that it because of the war that is making the price to dump like this. It just that the season that bitcoin is dropping as reach that why the price is that way and the time of pumping will definitely come again.

[moneystery]

If Bitcoin is supposed to be independent from the traditional market and global politics, why does it still move like other risk assets every time there is war fear or peace news?

Although Bitcoin is decentralized, investors can be influenced by news or other factors that influence market sentiment, which can influence investors to buy or sell. Movements like this can cause Bitcoin's price to rise by a certain percentage point or drop significantly, and that's just the way the market is.
However, it's still too early to determine whether this signals a real price recovery, as it's just another short-term pump driven by market sentiment.

[Stalker22]

Bitcoin IS free from any influence of global politics, although its price is 100% dependent on the psychology of people - and people are very susceptible to global politics.

The Bitcoin blockchain does not care about any war between the US and Iran.  It continues to create one block every ten minutes as usual, the code remains unchanged, and no-one can create additional coins. Therefore, it is entirely independent.  However, its market price depends entirely on those people who trade it. Like any other asset in the world.

[Faisal2202]

I’m not saying the bounce is fake, but I also don’t think one ceasefire news is enough to say the market is already strong again.

Do you think this kind of news can start a real recovery, or is it just another short-term pump because traders found a reason to buy?

Haaa, here we go again.

Well, kasabus, I can't agree more with you, but this is the reality now. Due to institutional level adoption, we are so deeply connected with the Fed that even interest rates are affecting the price. The Strait of Hormuz has no direct connection with Bitcoin, but its closure still affected BTC, not because BTC is physically passing through it haha.

It happened because oil prices started to increase, and institutions began selling BTC so they could move money into oil and make quick profits before managing their entries into BTC again. They can take such risks because they are smart money.

So for now, money is flowing out of BTC and going into AI, gold, oil, IPOs, silver, etc. It is basically a flow of capital. Before, we did not have this level of institutional money in crypto, so Bitcoin was not affected this heavily

[Alphakilo]

I’m not saying the bounce is fake, but I also don’t think one ceasefire news is enough to say the market is already strong again.

Do you think this kind of news can start a real recovery, or is it just another short-term pump because traders found a reason to buy?

Haaa, here we go again.

Well, kasabus, I can't agree more with you, but this is the reality now. Due to institutional level adoption, we are so deeply connected with the Fed that even interest rates are affecting the price. The Strait of Hormuz has no direct connection with Bitcoin, but its closure still affected BTC, not because BTC is physically passing through it haha.

It happened because oil prices started to increase, and institutions began selling BTC so they could move money into oil and make quick profits before managing their entries into BTC again. They can take such risks because they are smart money.

So for now, money is flowing out of BTC and going into AI, gold, oil, IPOs, silver, etc. It is basically a flow of capital. Before, we did not have this level of institutional money in crypto, so Bitcoin was not affected this heavily

Institutional investors think more about liquidity and risk management more than anything regarding the philosophy of a long term profit plan, hence why they diversify when they have Bitcoin investment that may be affected and this is when they feel the current geopolitical trends would affect their capital.

Therefore we can see that geopolitical tensions might be sort of a trigger for a dip hence the need for diversification into other investment like AI tokens, gold, oil, IPOs and this also means that peace news could happen to cause a relief and a pump in its price because the fear of being liquidated has ended, and that's when they start to buy more again.

[Hamza2424]

If Bitcoin is supposed to be independent from the traditional market and global politics, why does it still move like other risk assets every time there is war fear or peace news?
Maybe this is where the debate starts. Is Bitcoin really acting like a safe haven, or is it still just another asset that follows market emotion?

I’m not saying the bounce is fake, but I also don’t think one ceasefire news is enough to say the market is already strong again.

Do you think this kind of news can start a real recovery, or is it just another short-term pump because traders found a reason to buy?

Bounce can be fake, bro. There is no certainty here, but Bitcoin is showing strong signs. Although the deal was on the verge of getting delayed again, it seems like the US wants this war to end, but somehow Israel is forcing the issue. Maybe Israel has more files to release. Epstein could be just the tip of the iceberg.

I think the news is already pumping the price, but even before this news, a $66k target was predicted for Bitcoin, which should be hit before another dump.

This analysis is being shared online everywhere, and it suggests that this is only a short term pump and the market could dump again. Everyone should have an SL set at $62k because a move below that could mean the market is heading for another huge dump.

[Botnake]

Well, it depends on the countries involved. If it involve countries that are taking the most prominent active approaches like El Salvador, UAE, Bhutan, Russia, Iran, USA, Argentina and Brazil, and many more countries, they will surely create significant impact to the price of bitcoin, regardless if the news turns out positive or negative.

But peace news that concern irrelevant countries to bitcoin, they will never make significant effects to bitcoin price.

[Asuspawer09]

For sure this can cause a little bit of pump in the market as always market news, articles etc. are always have a factor in the market that is where most of the traders are basing there trades so there was always a factor to it, but there are still a lot of factors to consider this can cause a small pump that could potentially change the trajectory of the market but for sure there are also a lot of negative news that can counter it, market mostly is going to depend on the latest news most of the time, so if there are a lot of good news of crypto plus this ceasefire it might haev a overall good effect, so market could have a good recovery.

Still, traders are always accumulating at this bottom point of the market, so there was always a reason to buy at this point because Bitcoin is already adopted around the globe, so this is just a matter of waiting until market recover.

 

[mirakal]

Based from my previous observations with bitcoin, yes it really does an impact to bitcoin, but it could also be temporary because bitcoin will still follow its own pattern moving in the market. So everything about positive news will create positive effects of bitcoin, some do not just last. The next day bitcoin will move the other way, that's already expected anyway.

In the end, let's still focus on the real nature of bitcoin as a volatile asset, and it could pump or dump its price anytime it wants, regardless if there are positive or negative news happening that are relevant to bitcoin and the crypto market.

[ThemePen]

Based from my previous observations with bitcoin, yes it really does an impact to bitcoin, but it could also be temporary because bitcoin will still follow its own pattern moving in the market. So everything about positive news will create positive effects of bitcoin, some do not just last. The next day bitcoin will move the other way, that's already expected anyway.

In the end, let's still focus on the real nature of bitcoin as a volatile asset, and it could pump or dump its price anytime it wants, regardless if there are positive or negative news happening that are relevant to bitcoin and the crypto market.

It is something that many people learn the hard way. When they hear good news and they buy, thinking it is going to go further up and see that Bitcoin went down the following day. What is the point is that longterm holders do not pay any attention to day to day news. After viewing several cycles they have come to understand that short-term reactions are just noise. It's not a matter of today's events, but rather a matter of what was happening for months and years. The fluctuations in prices is price that the Bitcoin can formerly provide. If it were something like steady asset it would not be just as interesting.

[LogitechMouse]

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Do you think this kind of news can start a real recovery, or is it just another short-term pump because traders found a reason to buy?

It'll bounce in the short term just like what we just saw, but we know that these kind of events only affect the market in the short term, but in the long term, we are still in a bear market so at least expect some downwards movement still.

It affected the global markets in the short term, but the one asset that will affect this "peace agreement" in the medium to long term is oil especially when they re-open Strait of Hormuz again. The signing is set to happen on Friday, so anything could happen still especially when we are talking about Trump and how impulsive he is with his decisions. If nothing bad happens in this time frame, we could see a potential end of this war already assuming that both parties agree to all, and that's what people around the world wants to happen. To stop this war.

As for me, this is just a short-term bounce. We've seen this happening for a long time already. When Trump announced that they attacked Iran and signaled the start of the war, Bitcoin dumped, but we've seen some recovery after a few weeks. It's the same on this one where we see a short term bounce to the upside then we MIGHT see it going down as well.

[DanWalker]

Well, it depends on the countries involved. If it involve countries that are taking the most prominent active approaches like El Salvador, UAE, Bhutan, Russia, Iran, USA, Argentina and Brazil, and many more countries, they will surely create significant impact to the price of bitcoin, regardless if the news turns out positive or negative.

But peace news that concern irrelevant countries to bitcoin, they will never make significant effects to bitcoin price.

I disagree. Bitcoin is a global asset, and both its value and movement depend on capital flows across the global economy rather than simply on which countries are investing in it.
So it doesnt matter which conflict we are talking about or which country or region it involves. If it impacts the global economy and investor sentiment, Bitcoin will certainly be affected as well.

[Livingleged]

If Bitcoin is supposed to be independent from the traditional market and global politics, why does it still move like other risk assets every time there is war fear or peace news?

Look at the long term speculation, you will still see bitcoin followed the 4 year cycle this time. Do not let the few minutes or hours speculation deceive you.

If the war in Iran will cease today as Trump have said, it will not have much effect on bitcoin price. The war did not have much effect on both bull and bear price of bitcoin.

well, I do think peace negotiations should have some effect on it, if not so what could be cause of the recent pumping in the price of bitcoin from yesterday when the news broke out ? Is that also another coincidence? I doubt. Ordinarily a tweet from an influential individual like president Trump, should bring about speculation Wch literally will also cause a price move!