Can peace news really make Bitcoin bounce back?

[Smack That Ace]

I think we should put aside the idea of ​​Bitcoin crashing during war. Functionally, Bitcoin would be more needed in times of war. They would definitely need Bitcoin in emergencies than their own national currency.

As long as the market continues to view bitcoin as a risky asset, it will be difficult for it to avoid impact or sell offs if war or economic instability occurs.

That said, thing do not always play out the same way. Sometimes the market becomes irrational and reacts in ways that are difficult to predict, much like what we saw during the recent conflict between Iran and the US. But just because Bitcoin held up during that conflict does not mean we should rush to conclude that it has completely detached itself from the risk asset category or become a safe haven.


Bitcoin would only be useful during wartime if electricity and the internet continue to function normally. Conversely, it becomes useless if electricity and internet are no longer functioning normally or are disrupted on a large scale.

[Pmalek]

The price already bounced back somewhat following confirmation by Trump and the Pakistani's that a ceasefire was imminent. But I don't believe this ceasefire is sustainable because of Israel. Their aspirations to take a chunk out of Lebanon is still too strong, and they will find a way to get the US back into the war. Then we will sadly be back to bitcoin going down.

Bitcoin isn't independent from world politics/economy. Just watch the price around and during FED meetings when it's being decided what they will do with the rates. Bitcoin acts like an EKG monitor, jumping up and down from minute to minute.

[AprilioMP]

I don’t agree. Bitcoin is a system that requires no third parties other than the owner and the recipient. The rise and fall of Bitcoin’s price depend on the laws of supply and demand, not on the global political situation you mentioned. Global political conditions only influence market participants.

But demand for Bitcoin is entirely dependent on the market participants, investors. So, it is not entirely wrong to say that the global political situation has an influence on bitcoin.

The Bitcoin network and protocol may be independent of global politics, but the price of Bitcoin is not.

Prices depend on how strongly the laws of supply and demand apply. The levels of supply and demand can be influenced by global conditions. When global conditions are tense, investor confidence is affected. If global politics are stable—such as with the recent news of an agreement between the United States and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz—this will have a positive impact on investor confidence.

It depends on the perspective. If people view Bitcoin as a safe haven, they assess it from a hedging perspective because, historically, its overall price trend has been consistently rising since its launch.
For those who don’t see it that way, no matter how strongly we explain it, they won’t accept it. That’s what I mean by “it depends on the perspective.”

Yes, that depends on each person's perspective and definition of a safe haven. However, according to the traditional definition, Bitcoin is not considered a safe haven asset.

Is it too risky by traditional standards? Even traditional assets considered safe havens carry risks.

[ultrloa]

I don’t agree. Bitcoin is a system that requires no third parties other than the owner and the recipient. The rise and fall of Bitcoin’s price depend on the laws of supply and demand, not on the global political situation you mentioned. Global political conditions only influence market participants.

But demand for Bitcoin is entirely dependent on the market participants, investors. So, it is not entirely wrong to say that the global political situation has an influence on bitcoin.

The Bitcoin network and protocol may be independent of global politics, but the price of Bitcoin is not.

Prices depend on how strongly the laws of supply and demand apply. The levels of supply and demand can be influenced by global conditions. When global conditions are tense, investor confidence is affected. If global politics are stable—such as with the recent news of an agreement between the United States and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz—this will have a positive impact on investor confidence.

Yeah that's basic fundamental of Bitcoin, but we also need to consider on include on the picture the sentiments of people towards the news happened. Because market react so fast on new, because people easily got panic when bad news came. Then came back when everything cools down.

We can also see the current situation on which Iran and US made a peace deal, because after they signed an agreement Bitcoin slowly bouncing back and this is what we already see happening in the market now https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

[Zlantann]

Prices depend on how strongly the laws of supply and demand apply. The levels of supply and demand can be influenced by global conditions. When global conditions are tense, investor confidence is affected. If global politics are stable—such as with the recent news of an agreement between the United States and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz—this will have a positive impact on investor confidence.

I don't think any asset or business is immune to political and economic happenings or policies. The world is like a system that is made up of subsystems. A subsystem malfunction can affect the system's operation. As long as Bitcoin is part of the global financial system, it will always be influenced, positively or negatively, by the actions or inactions of global economic and political players. Don't get me wrong, negative news could be beneficial to the Bitcoin space, maybe because investors might use it as a hedge against inflation. Another news could lead to a massive dump.

[Franctoshi]

So now Bitcoin reacts again because of possible US-Iran ceasefire news. Some will say this is bullish because less tension means investors are more willing to take risk again.

But isn’t that also a bit worrying?

If Bitcoin is supposed to be independent from the traditional market and global politics, why does it still move like other risk assets every time there is war fear or peace news?
Maybe this is where the debate starts. Is Bitcoin really acting like a safe haven, or is it still just another asset that follows market emotion?

I’m not saying the bounce is fake, but I also don’t think one ceasefire news is enough to say the market is already strong again.

Do you think this kind of news can start a real recovery, or is it just another short-term pump because traders found a reason to buy?

Definitely, Bitcoin has already reacting to this news that Iran have come to a deal to not have a Nuclear weapon, while it matters is that I will bring investors confidence back to continue to invest in risk assets, while removing fear of uncertainty and doubt (FUD) in the global market/economy. Bitcoin is sitting at 66k and if everything comes back to normal, the whole thing will be priced in in a matter of weeks to come.

[OcTradism]

Definitely, Bitcoin has already reacting to this news that Iran have come to a deal to not have a Nuclear weapon, while it matters is that I will bring investors confidence back to continue to invest in risk assets, while removing fear of uncertainty and doubt (FUD) in the global market/economy. Bitcoin is sitting at 66k and if everything comes back to normal, the whole thing will be priced in in a matter of weeks to come.

Weeks ago, Bitcoin even recovered more strongly from bottom range than what it has performed around the Peace Deal between the USA and Iran recent days. You can see it as a recovery but because many people thought of not only a recovery but an early ending of bear market, with recent non impressive performance of Bitcoin, I don't see any scenario for it to end the bear market with this Peace Deal.

The market can be shaken and dumped again if either Iran, the USA or Israel break this peace deal in the future with attacks against each other, from only one side or back and forth. I am not too optimistic with effects from the peace deal on Bitcoin market in long term.

[knowngunman]

If Bitcoin is supposed to be independent from the traditional market and global politics, why does it still move like other risk assets every time there is war fear or peace news?
Maybe this is where the debate starts. Is Bitcoin really acting like a safe haven, or is it still just another asset that follows market emotion?

Bitcoin is still independent. It has no central authority but the price of Bitcoin is not independent. The price react to global trends and that's what makes it a volatile asset.

Moreover, larger percentage of Bitcoin volume is now being handled by institutions. So any time the institutions take action in the market either buy or sell, the market will react accordingly.

Now, we are seeing the effects of ETFs and Microstrategy in the market. The ceasefire news is a good development that reduce fear and people are beginning to buy back which is the reason for the pump.

[Boiboi20]

Do you think this kind of news can start a real recovery, or is it just another short-term pump because traders found a reason to buy?

This is not certain to say that the peace deal is a reason for bitcoin move up. In fact for like two weeks since it touched 61k, it has been on a very strong support and maybe the good news and the support caused the bounce up which is still looking temporal from the little drop reaching 63k/64k.

As to whether positive global news or negative global news can affect the movement of bitcoin, for me it is not yet confirmed. For instance in 2019/20 during the COVID-19 which changed the situation of so many countries economic development and policies but we saw the huge rise in the price of bitcoin.

I don’t think we can confidently say the peace deal is the reason bitcoin move up it had already been holding a strong support level for a couple of week so the bounce was likely building up already the good news may have helped but the recent pullback around 63k 64k also shows the move might not be as strong as some people think
when it come to global new affecting bitcoin i don’t think there is enough evidence to say it always reacts in one direction a good example is during covid 19 the world was dealing with a major crisis economies were strugglin  bitcoin went on to record one of it is biggest rallie That is why i believe bitcoin is price is driven by a mix of factors not just positive or negative news alone

[colinistheman]

Do you think this kind of news can start a real recovery, or is it just another short-term pump because traders found a reason to buy?

This is not certain to say that the peace deal is a reason for bitcoin move up. In fact for like two weeks since it touched 61k, it has been on a very strong support and maybe the good news and the support caused the bounce up which is still looking temporal from the little drop reaching 63k/64k.

As to whether positive global news or negative global news can affect the movement of bitcoin, for me it is not yet confirmed. For instance in 2019/20 during the COVID-19 which changed the situation of so many countries economic development and policies but we saw the huge rise in the price of bitcoin.

I don’t think we can confidently say the peace deal is the reason bitcoin move up it had already been holding a strong support level for a couple of week so the bounce was likely building up already the good news may have helped but the recent pullback around 63k 64k also shows the move might not be as strong as some people think
when it come to global new affecting bitcoin i don’t think there is enough evidence to say it always reacts in one direction a good example is during covid 19 the world was dealing with a major crisis economies were strugglin  bitcoin went on to record one of it is biggest rallie That is why i believe bitcoin is price is driven by a mix of factors not just positive or negative news alone

The peace agreement may not be the sole reason for Bitcoin's rise, but I am confident that it has made a significant contribution.
If we look at the broader financial market, crude oil is declining while stock and gold are also rising, not just Bitcoin. This indicates a general shift in capital flow and an overall improvement in market sentiment.
Regarding Covid, it was similar. Bitcoin was not the only market that grew. Stock and gold also rose strongly and reached aths during the same period. Reasons were increased demand for online investing, as well as massive money printing by government to support the economy during the pandemic

Bitcoin is decentralized, but ultimately it is still part of the global economy. It is neither entirely separate nor fully independent from the global financial system.

[BlackHatCoiner]

If Bitcoin is supposed to be independent from the traditional market and global politics, why does it still move like other risk assets every time there is war fear or peace news?

Who said that? Why do people have unrealistic expectations from Bitcoin? Bitcoin is just an asset, like any other in the world, with some exceptional properties, but still an asset that is bought and sold in the market. The other time I saw someone asking "will bitcoin solve inequality?", as if Bitcoin is somewhat a messiah.

And no, Bitcoin is not recovering that easily. We're going to $50k first.

[Ojima-ojo]

As long as Bitcoin market remains volatile and can react to negative news, the same way positive news can make not just Bitcoin but the entire stock market to rebound, we have to know that new most especially those international crises new can impact so much on the immediate market since some of them have to do with economy and related bilateral relations.

[Faisal2202]

Institutional investors think more about liquidity and risk management more than anything regarding the philosophy of a long term profit plan, hence why they diversify when they have Bitcoin investment that may be affected and this is when they feel the current geopolitical trends would affect their capital.

Therefore we can see that geopolitical tensions might be sort of a trigger for a dip hence the need for diversification into other investment like AI tokens, gold, oil, IPOs and this also means that peace news could happen to cause a relief and a pump in its price because the fear of being liquidated has ended, and that's when they start to buy more again.

It does not matter if there is any geopolitical tension or not, we should diversify our funds, because that's good for our portfolio. We should not put all the eggs in one basket. We should own more baskets to secure our future, and rich people follow this rule strictly, although I am not rich haha.

War news plays a role in pumping the market, but this alone is not the main factor. There are others, and the main one is selling pressure, which can be caused by a lot of factors, including war. So that's why I don't take war news seriously, because this will not end anytime soon.

People are taking the SPCX IPO as something so big. People are so amazed to invest in it and shocked to make some gain overnight. I bet they have not tried BTC yet haha.

[lionheart78]

I’m not saying the bounce is fake, but I also don’t think one ceasefire news is enough to say the market is already strong again.

I agree with what you say, I also don't think the Bitcoin price is driven by the peace and war treaty of any country.  It may have an effect in a certain point but it won't be the major player why Bitcoin market is recovering.

Do you think this kind of news can start a real recovery, or is it just another short-term pump because traders found a reason to buy?

I do not think that this kind of news can start a real recovery, because Bitcoin market is not attached to war time and peace time of each country.  A certain conflict of two or three countries has no significant effect on the global market of Bitcoin unless there is a world war happening where each country is participating in massive war campaigns.

In addition the sudden spike of Bitcoin price during the US-Iran peace  news is unstable and does not guarantee a continue recovery.  As a matter of fact, the price already pulled back a bit.

[Bushdark]

As long as Bitcoin market remains volatile and can react to negative news, the same way positive news can make not just Bitcoin but the entire stock market to rebound, we have to know that new most especially those international crises new can impact so much on the immediate market since some of them have to do with economy and related bilateral relations.

The fundamental aspects of Bitcoin deals with news that affect the price of Bitcoin especially political news.
Politics do have an influence in the price of Bitcoin and there is no way we can ignore that part that is quite reactive than the technical aspect of the market. The price of Bitcoin can suddenly change direction due to a single news in the market that make investors to either sell their holdings or buy more Bitcoin. There have been so many events that have led to the sudden drop in orice of Bitcoin and these have been happening several time. The news have a huge part it plays in the price of Bitcoin and there is no way we can ignore that.

[ArabBTC]

As long as Bitcoin market remains volatile and can react to negative news, the same way positive news can make not just Bitcoin but the entire stock market to rebound, we have to know that new most especially those international crises new can impact so much on the immediate market since some of them have to do with economy and related bilateral relations.

I totally agree with you even over time if one should observe you will see that most news especially from top world countries and influential world figures has always affected the price of bitcoin because of it’s volatility, any little online reaction can create an unrest in the mind of both intending bitcoin investors and and current bitcoin holders, that is why most times this top countries think twice before engaging in certain wars or making certain statements because they know the tension/impart it might create.

To me i believe that peace within major countries of the world will significantly affect the price of bitcoin positively, once most of this major wars are resolved it will definitely sprout new dimensions in the crypto space and most bitcoin holders will benefit, just that it’s not always easy to stop certain wars due to the fact that certain countries benefit from wars, for some it’s an avenue to sell weapons so they will always ensure that the war continues.

[Hyphen(-)]

Maybe this is where the debate starts. Is Bitcoin really acting like a safe haven, or is it still just another asset that follows market emotion?

I’m not saying the bounce is fake, but I also don’t think one ceasefire news is enough to say the market is already strong again.

Do you think this kind of news can start a real recovery, or is it just another short-term pump because traders found a reason to buy?

The only reason why some of these news is moving the Bitcoin market is because Bitcoin have investors globally, and you never can tell who owns Bitcoin and how many Bitcoin some investors hold; therefore, the panic that comes with war is the reason why the market is reacting because some investors in that region if they have high number of Bitcoin, they can panic and sell to save their lives instead of going while no one might have access to the wallet.

The price will recover when we have good news because that’s when investors will take more risk, but some investors will keep holding Bitcoin despite the market condition. If you want to hold Bitcoin for long, avoid listing to news and stories that will scare you to sell your Bitcoin.

[LGD2Business]

This has nothing to do with war or peace. Bitcoin moves independently of these events. The war in Ukraine isn't over yet. What's happening in Iran is out in the open. Trying to establish a correlation between these events and the crypto market won't give you accurate results. There are many other factors that influence Bitcoin's price. If you attribute it solely to the war, you'll be mistaken. Of course if there were peace it would be better for the whole world. Economies would recover, people would spend more and this would create a generally positive atmosphere. But it wouldn't be accurate to single this out as the sole factor.

[Cookdata]

So now Bitcoin reacts again because of possible US-Iran ceasefire news. Some will say this is bullish because less tension means investors are more willing to take risk again.

But isn’t that also a bit worrying?

If Bitcoin is supposed to be independent from the traditional market and global politics, why does it still move like other risk assets every time there is war fear or peace news?
Maybe this is where the debate starts. Is Bitcoin really acting like a safe haven, or is it still just another asset that follows market emotion?

I’m not saying the bounce is fake, but I also don’t think one ceasefire news is enough to say the market is already strong again.

Do you think this kind of news can start a real recovery, or is it just another short-term pump because traders found a reason to buy?

Nobody moves money like institutional investors in Bitcoin, they move money with market sentiment. If they have large positions of Bitcoin and there is uncertainty in the market, they are going to remove their money, ETFs sell their shares to remove their money and at the same time Blackrock and other institutions don't have to choice but to sell so they can settled ETF shares that are liquidated, this is why politics and war affect the price of Bitcoin and the stock market.

Don't you see that Bitcoin bounced back from $60k weak to strong $66k, the market is just waiting to see more signal and we may be able to break $70k. That same day Trump announced that they striked a deal with Iran was the same day the oil crash because it was announced that Strait of Hormuz will be open, that same day trillions of dollars flow into the stock market, all these are macro economies thqt affect Bitcoin, it could go the good well if economy is good and will go bad way if things are bad.

[Odusko]

Maybe this is where the debate starts. Is Bitcoin really acting like a safe haven, or is it still just another asset that follows market emotion?

I’m not saying the bounce is fake, but I also don’t think one ceasefire news is enough to say the market is already strong again.

Do you think this kind of news can start a real recovery, or is it just another short-term pump because traders found a reason to buy?

The only reason why some of these news is moving the Bitcoin market is because Bitcoin have investors globally, and you never can tell who owns Bitcoin and how many Bitcoin some investors hold; therefore, the panic that comes with war is the reason why the market is reacting because some investors in that region if they have high number of Bitcoin, they can panic and sell to save their lives instead of going while no one might have access to the wallet.

The price will recover when we have good news because that’s when investors will take more risk, but some investors will keep holding Bitcoin despite the market condition. If you want to hold Bitcoin for long, avoid listing to news and stories that will scare you to sell your Bitcoin.

Not everyone have the fundamental understanding and knowledge about Bitcoin and the way Bitcoin recover from each of it market dip and how news around the world impact the price and market of Bitcoin and the entire stocks market, is not wise for us to assume that mainstream news gave not direct impact on price movement in Bitcoin which is not true whatever happens in the media one way ther other influnces the decision of Bitcoin investors.