The Difference Between Being Early and Being Lucky.

[Cryptohygenic]

As we all know those who discovered bitcoin in 2010, 2011, and 2012 were said to be early, but not all of them who discovered bitcoin early are rich or wealthy today, fact. Large number of those people who discovered Bitcoin early sold their bitcoin investment after they made small profit, some of them lost access to their wallets, why some too abandoned bitcoin simply because they didn't believe it would succeed, another fact.

Just know that the worth of 1 bitcoin in the early times is equipment in value of 1 bitcoin today. The difference is the price change which is as a result of inflation that increases it which is apparently why bitcoin is a store of value.
Note that the fiats is quite depreciating fastly over inflations, therefore, the value of $100 then in 2010 could be valued at thousands of $ today's.
So if only the early investors who bought in the early times could still holds their bitcoin up to date like now bitcoin price have been overrated due to inflation, you will see that earlier investors will be ahead of the investors buying at the higher costs.
I believe this analysis is particularly why most of us regretted why we did not buy when we had the opportunity to buy on the low.
Same reason why we find buying the Dip very attractive while holding for the long time determines the level of profit returns.

[Asuspawer09]

I mean you probably just need both of this in order to be a success, what I usually see is there was always luck involved most of the time, but the this is always being present on that market or starting, that is why being early is a huge thing but that doesnt mean or guaranteed that you are going to make it, there were always luck involved, maybe a few traders that actually predicted how the market goes but most of the time it was just luck.

It's true that not being early was just not enough for sure, except for the few people that actually predicted it, but not all of the early investors are actually becoming millionaires there are only a few that actually last, having that discipline or just being lucky. I mean, for investors who actually see Bitcoin's future as a whole different level of vision, imagine investing like a 5k$ into something that you dont really know if it's going to have a future, seeing and predicting it was just a long shot and luck.

[EarnOnVictor]

Therefore, what separated those who were merely early from those who ultimately benefited from bitcoin is conviction and patient imo, because it is easy for anyone to buy an asset when nobody is paying attention to it, but it is much harder to hold it through market crashes, negative media coverage, government criticism and years of uncertainty. Feel free to give your two cents on this discussion.

Bitcoin investment has once again proves that the more you can take risks, the higher is your possibility to be successful. Many of those who got so rich with Bitcoin didn't understand what they were doing, but it turned out to be a blessing of a lifetime. While some people would carefully study an investment, but it will still fail them. That is where luck/risk lies in-between. However, those who I respect most are the ones who would have maintained their Bitcoin investment till now. Of course, many of them must have spent some. But the fact that some of them are still HODLIng regardless of what happens show trust, and it's obvious that Bitcoin has built enough reason to trust it itself.

[Bitcoin_people]

There are many people who know about Bitcoin who have come to this day and many of them regret that they could have come earlier, it would have been better. And there are many who think that if they had invested at the beginning, they could have become wealthy. But I think this is completely wrong. Basically, the mentality of people is the most important thing. When Bitcoin started, people were very afraid to invest in it and to believe in it. But when its value gradually started changing and people started believing in it, people's interest in investing arose. However, it is not just that investing earlier would have rewarded a lot of money. There are many people who would have bought and sold it when they made a small profit, but they could not sustain their investment for a long time. In that case, people's mentality depended the most, and only those who were lucky could maintain their investment for a long time. Those who were not lucky enough to have a big reward could not survive.  So those who still think they are late to Bitcoin will regret it in the future, so I think it is not late to Bitcoin, but rather that investing at any stage will reward you in the future.

[jcojci]

It is not be a problem if you are not being early knowing Bitcoin but you can still being lucky especially if you can invest in Bitcoin at the right time. Most people asks when the right time? That will depend on your research, all people will not have the same right time.

Those who being lucky will make a profit and maybe their profits will be bigger than others. They can enter to the right time, having much amounts of Bitcoin than others, selling at the high peak and that will not happens to most people.

So you don't have to feels sad not being early knowing Bitcoin because you can focus on your investment and who knows you will be the next being lucky person so keep focus and not complaint.

[JeffBrad12]

Fairly speaking nobody would've seen it coming how bitcoin can grow this fast. Not even the most degen person in investment see it coming.
Being early owning thousands of bitcoin with few bucks gets you in the game, but patient and conviction is the one that makes you wealthy holding BTCitcoin.
That patient really paid off because people who held their bitcoin are becoming so rich their money won't run out easily even if they spend on luxury.

[Nahl]

Nobody can predict the future that although some bitcoiners are being early and bought bitcoin at years 2010 or 2011 but don't mean these people have already to became an the millionare because at that time the value of bitcoin is very cheap and probably some of them have sold their bitcoin early too so, they never thought in the last several years bitcoin will be quite expensive because, if they can predict it certainly they will bought a lot of bitcoin at that time and hold it for years until the price high

Speaking about being luck from bitcoin i don't think it will effect more but indeed those who can hold bitcoin for years and can safe their bitcoin without lost their access to their wallet probably these people are lucky but if we talking about lucky it is not fully true because to hold bitcoin for years people are required a lot of patiently to do that and these people are believe bitcoin can make them to became an the millionare someday

[m2017]

As we all know those who discovered bitcoin in 2010, 2011, and 2012 were said to be early, but not all of them who discovered bitcoin early are rich or wealthy today, fact. Large number of those people who discovered Bitcoin early sold their bitcoin investment after they made small profit, some of them lost access to their wallets, why some too abandoned bitcoin simply because they didn't believe it would succeed, another fact.

And this is already similar to a sport where not everyone reaches the finish line.

Therefore, I want to make one thing clear so that we can get the picture clearly, if being early alone guarantee success, I am pretty sure that many people would be very rich or wealthy today through bitcoin but that's not the case.

It's like the eternal double problem of money: first,  have to be able to earn it, and second, have to be able to keep it.

Some people bought bitcoin years ago with very little knowledge, maybe they made that  Bitcoin purchase out of curiosity or FOMO, fear of missing out and they forgot about it, and later discovered that their bitcoin investment had increase in value overtime. Indeed, this set of people should be considered as luck people, because luck played a larger role than skill or foresight.

These lucky ones were helped by the fact that they "forgot" about their bitcoins for years and "remembered" it only when it skyrocketed in price. I recall a user from a Scandinavian country, like Denmark, who was writing his thesis on cryptography and bought bitcoin for it, I think 5,000BTC. He only remembered it during the 2017 hype, if I'm not mistaken. This is precisely the kind of luck that has no merit, but is purely the result of chance and luck.

Therefore, what separated those who were merely early from those who ultimately benefited from bitcoin is conviction and patient imo, because it is easy for anyone to buy an asset when nobody is paying attention to it, but it is much harder to hold it through market crashes, negative media coverage, government criticism and years of uncertainty. Feel free to give your two cents on this discussion.

Strategic thinking and the ability to stick to your plan. These qualities are inherent in any competent investor, even in traditional markets.

[Awaklara]

There is this statement people common make in bitcoin and cryptocurrency related discussions, i wish i got in early. Many people, especially newbies believe that anyone who bought bitcoin in the early days became rich or wealthy simply because they were early but that's not completely true.

That expression is part of someone's regret for missing a moment. Sometimes we're already at the bottom price in a certain cycle, but we're still waiting to buy. Then the price goes up before reaching our buying target, and we end up regretting not buying at that time.
Those who invested in Bitcoin when the price was still very cheap are the ones who had confidence. We, before knowing Bitcoin, wouldn't necessarily dare to put money in at a time like that.

[kingstep]

Being early is when you or someone recognize an opportunity before most people do and act immediately, while being lucky is just the state of achieving a positive outcome largely due to circumstances beyond your control, although sometime being early and being lucky overlap but they are not identical as most of us think.

some rich people  that are humble enough to express the part that led them to their breakthrough will always identify some element of luck in addition to whatever effort they had put into whatever they eventually achieved. people come into bitcoin early enough enough and still opt out regretting now while some just thought to give it a try, stayed invested and with time, they gained clarity that helped them see reasons why they should remain invested for a longer period of time.

Being early in whatever you are into is a good one but being able to identify the worth of things comes through some element of luck. in the end, you might think you are too smart but that is not usually the case because someone smarter might walk pass such opportunity without noticing it to start with.

[danherbias07]

I don't call it "Luck", I call it "Courage".

Those people who invested early in Bitcoin are the brave ones. They either spent money or time while mining those Bitcoins, and they did it even with the knowledge that they may be wasting their time, money, and effort.
To be in those positions is very hard. Your expectations are not high, but it's there. Every day, they will think about mining something that is not even valuable at all. It's like a damn play money.
Being in that position and keeping that every day could really get into your mind. I mean, it could ruin you mentally, but these people stayed and patiently waited while using their courage to believe that "maybe it will have some value later on".

[MusaPk]

I don't call it "Luck", I call it "Courage".

Those people who invested early in Bitcoin are the brave ones. They either spent money or time while mining those Bitcoins, and they did it even with the knowledge that they may be wasting their time, money, and effort.
To be in those positions is very hard. Your expectations are not high, but it's there. Every day, they will think about mining something that is not even valuable at all. It's like a damn play money.
Being in that position and keeping that every day could really get into your mind. I mean, it could ruin you mentally, but these people stayed and patiently waited while using their courage to believe that "maybe it will have some value later on".

Not everyone who bought Bitcoin in its early days hold it till the price went up to $50,000 or $100,000. We have a famous story that two pizzas were bought by exchanging 10,000 Bitcoin in early days and that shows how non-serious people were not about Bitcoin. Their are people who bought Bitcoin in its initial days of launch and sold it when price went skyrocketed, there investment is zero compared to profit they got. In early days of Bitcoin, it was even possible to mine a Bitcoin on laptop and you can get Bitcoin for free. Its all about the courage of those people that not only acquire Bitcoin in 2010 and also hold it for long term. 

[M47AK16]

Nobody can predict the future that although some bitcoiners are being early and bought bitcoin at years 2010 or 2011 but don't mean these people have already to became an the millionare because at that time the value of bitcoin is very cheap and probably some of them have sold their bitcoin early too so, they never thought in the last several years bitcoin will be quite expensive because, if they can predict it certainly they will bought a lot of bitcoin at that time and hold it for years until the price high

Speaking about being luck from bitcoin i don't think it will effect more but indeed those who can hold bitcoin for years and can safe their bitcoin without lost their access to their wallet probably these people are lucky but if we talking about lucky it is not fully true because to hold bitcoin for years people are required a lot of patiently to do that and these people are believe bitcoin can make them to became an the millionare someday

Yeah, one of those idiots is me, I have sold my coins when it was just a few hundred dollars, some even at hundred dollars. Unfortunately I do not have much now, not even remotely close to a million, hell I do not even have 0.1 bitcoin at the current moment. So we can safely say that I am one of those people who could have tens of millions of dollars if I was smart, but instead I am paying off debt and being broke. So yeah it's not really a good idea to always go with what your instincts say, sometimes you have to listen to your brain.

[lovesmayfamilis]

Yeah, one of those idiots is me, I have sold my coins when it was just a few hundred dollars, some even at hundred dollars. Unfortunately I do not have much now, not even remotely close to a million, hell I do not even have 0.1 bitcoin at the current moment. So we can safely say that I am one of those people who could have tens of millions of dollars if I was smart, but instead I am paying off debt and being broke. So yeah it's not really a good idea to always go with what your instincts say, sometimes you have to listen to your brain.

Alas, our minds sometimes remain deaf to those events that become crucial for some. You are not alone; there would probably be a lot of millionaires here on the forum if we all saw the future. Probably a lot of money; this is not a test for everyone, and now we can regret the missed opportunities, but if we believe that nothing in the world happens by chance, then we need to accept that many people on the forum simply are not destined to become millionaires. Besides, not all rich people are happy, and we all know many examples, but it's probably possible for everyone to be happy in spite of everything, without looking at finances. We have legs and arms, health, and everything that some others don't have, which they would dream of in order to be happy.

[obuoma]

I have my definition of these terms even though I do not disagree with your definition. Being lucky to me means anyone who is privileged to see the opportunity in Bitcoin and actually take the bold step to buy and hold. Whenever a person hears about Bitcoin and buy, he is still early because Bitcoin is still relatively early, less than two decades and with lots of rooms for growth. Like you said, both words can  overlap but they are a little different.

[JaanusRaim]

There are four equally important steps in every successful investment:
1)finding the asset
2)calculating the undervaluation of this asset and creating the investment plan
3)executing the investment plan
4)securing the asset.

Therefore there is surely some correlation between finding an undervalued asset early enough and investment success. Without the first step there can not be the second, third and fourth step.

Just the keyword "Bitcoin" had significant value before BTC went mainstream 2013 and especially 2009-2010 when BTC was for free.
How much you were ready to pay for the keyword "Bitcoin" in 2010 ? How big percentage of your following BTC+related profits ?

[GreatArkansas]

Being early is not enough; you need to understand Bitcoin and make good decisions. You have to be patient to invest long-term. Those who regret not investing in Bitcoin during its early days would likely not have succeeded even if they had made an attempt, based on their level of understanding of Bitcoin. Most of the early investors who succeeded in investing in Bitcoin understood it; even with the criticism, they did their research to gain knowledge. No amount of criticism or fluctuation in the price of Bitcoin disturbed them because they understood what they were investing in. It is not that many of us didn't know about Bitcoin early on or hadn't heard about it; we ignored it because we never knew the future of Bitcoin.

+1.I don't believe being early is enough, because I know a lot of people or have read a lot that even though they were early to get introduced to Bitcoin, it still doesn't mean they paid attention to it or heavily invested. There are some people was early but exited early or left too early and left the market.
Let's say being lucky? hmmm, for me that will apply if you are gambling, but in Bitcoin market during early days, I dont think that applies, you need to learn everything and understand.

[Uhwuchukwu53]

There is one say and believe of some that the first shall be the last and the last shall become first , it's a clear definition of this early and been lucky, I see it as a principle that work on any investment that patient is lacking, you can be early and failed to exercise patient and one with patients who was lately introduce become the lucky one to achieve what you that has be there could not, in this market it occasionally happen that most investor at the time of entering the market has opportunity of buying the bottom when it's extremely dip ,I also consider this as been lucky to the market which one that is early but enter through the apex or the top of the market will considered to be unlucky. The overall difference is centered on gain weather early or lucky it's the gain or profit made in the system that scale if one is lucky despite been early.

[dezoel]

If you knew it and bought it and held it until now because you believed it will go up all the way from the start, that is being early, if you didn't know much about it, and just got it via some lucky online surfing and some faucet or something type of thing way back, and forgot about it, and only to realize you have some to sell now that is luck.

Luck is not what you do, it is what happens to you, being early requires you to be smart about your investments and be aware of what's going on.

[Accardo]

There is one say and believe of some that the first shall be the last and the last shall become first , it's a clear definition of this early and been lucky, I see it as a principle that work on any investment that patient is lacking, you can be early and failed to exercise patient and one with patients who was lately introduce become the lucky one to achieve what you that has be there could not, in this market it occasionally happen that most investor at the time of entering the market has opportunity of buying the bottom when it's extremely dip.

Early and lucky, the both have different contexts, early birds are exclusively not the same with those who were lucky to invest and held for a longer duration... Many buyers who bought btc at a peanut price couldn't hold past 1k ATH before selling for profit, some who bought at this exact same price and held btc till it got to 100k made more profits than the early birds who sold quickly for fast profits. However, this is only measured on the basis of bitcoin investments as we can't tell generally how the early sellers made use of the fiats they got off bitcoin when they left, they're multiple businesses in the world that makes people billionaires too.