Astronomically small, so small that there probably isn't enough energy in the known universe to power the hardware needed to do it.
lol.
it's just that here
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Vanitygenthey is it took 10 seconds to generate this key pair...
To generate one specific key pair out of the countless billions that also start with "1Boat".
so if I try to generate an address with that smame prefix, woulnd't i get the same private key?
You'd get a different one that also starts with "1Boat".
If you don't believe me, please do tell it that you want to generate the key pair that starts with "1BoatSLRHtKNngkdXEeobR76b53LETtpyT" i.e. the whole exact key with the same case, and tell us how long it thinks it will need in order to do this.