HODLers vs. Lost Coins Can we ever really know the difference?.......

[Donk1]

​Well if I may say we can't properly identify lost coins from long-term holders because the system doesn't know if a person's seed phrase was lost or not. But still, based on my understanding every lost coin makes the rest more valuable because Bitcoin has a limited scarcity of 21 million coins.​ But then if the system can't identify lost coins, how do we know if lost coins make the rest more valuable?......

​Basically theoretically holding long for about 10 to 15 years or more isn't bad because, as we all know Bitcoin is a store of value and those who have held longer can testify. Still does that mean even lost coins are considered long-term holdings and long-term holdings are considered lost coins?.....
] yeah I know it's kind of confusing, but I need more opinions on this, so correct me if I'm wrong. Even on-chain analysis companies like Glassnode often just guess by saying they are considered lost coins, but there isn't a solid proof that those coins were actually lost for that I don't think we can ever really know the difference......
Check out this link : https://www.ledger.com/academy/topics/economics-and-regulation/how-many-bitcoin-are-lost-ledger?hl=en-GB

[Lucius]

To begin with, I suggest that you use smaller images + that you learn about BTC somewhere else and not in LA, considering the negative reputation that company has on the forum and in general.


My answer to your question is very simple, all the methods used by researchers are just guesses, because you can't prove that something is lost when it comes to Bitcoin just because the coins haven't moved for x or xx years. The only coins we can say are lost are those sent to burn addresses because there is no private key for them. From time to time, someone burns a few coins like this, and recently someone sent over 100 BTC to one such address.

At this moment, it is not too important how many coins are actually lost, because the supply on CEXs is still significant, and they say that quantum computers will one day be able to "recover" some of the lost coins. 21 million is the only number that makes sense.

[Zaguru12]

It has actually been confused or wrong narrative that once a wallet remains dormant for a very long period of time it’s usually counted as lost coins and this assumption is actually wrong because some wallet keys might actually be lost but it doesn’t mean it cannot be recovered back again and the coins moved. Another thing most of the coins are actually held for a very long time who knows if the wallet even have a long timelock on it and can be spend im the future.

The only gurantee that a coin is lost is actually sending it to burner addresses this are addresses that prevents them from been spent and the most easy way to do that is to actually use OP_RETURN

[rat03gopoh]

All those statistics are based on assumptions, to the point where someone has gone to such lengths to prove that Bitcoins in a huge list of suspected addresses can be considered lost.. bta.lk/t/5584253
If someone's address contains thousands and is deemed legally lost, it will save them a significant % of their portfolio from mandatory charges. hahaa.

[Fortify]

​Well if I may say we can't properly identify lost coins from long-term holders because the system doesn't know if a person's seed phrase was lost or not. But still, based on my understanding every lost coin makes the rest more valuable because Bitcoin has a limited scarcity of 21 million coins.​ But then if the system can't identify lost coins, how do we know if lost coins make the rest more valuable?......

​Basically theoretically holding long for about 10 to 15 years or more isn't bad because, as we all know Bitcoin is a store of value and those who have held longer can testify. Still does that mean even lost coins are considered long-term holdings and long-term holdings are considered lost coins?.....
yeah I know it's kind of confusing, but I need more opinions on this, so correct me if I'm wrong. Even on-chain analysis companies like Glassnode often just guess by saying they are considered lost coins, but there isn't a solid proof that those coins were actually lost for that I don't think we can ever really know the difference......

Why does it even matter though? It would be interesting to know which are truly lost coins, aka the owner died and the devices they might have used are long gone, but outside of Satoshi or a select few other individuals it seems unlikely to have a solid answer. I guess you could also include "dust" in these sort of calculations because they're such small amounts (relative to what they were worth at the time) they have likely been abandoned just because the owner might not bother combining them - depending on how they're stored or created. Holding time is not any sort of useful metric really, because some people will just buy and sit on an asset forever because they have plenty of money spare.

[mindrust]

If the coin hasn't moved for more than 15 years, I consider it lost tbh. That number might be different for everybody though... It is impossible to know whether those coins were actually lost or the owner is still waiting the right time to sell. I don't think knowing that will do much of a difference in our lives either... It is pretty much useless data. One can acquire 1 btc right now and lose it next hour because he lost his private keys... Stuff like that happens all the time and it is impossible to track all those events.

[bitbollo]

Probably some of early blocks/coins mined could be considered lost but this is a wrong assumption unless this is somewhat "confirmed".
In the past there was even a topic here on forum keeping track of these coins, and we have for sure some references.
Excluding this large chunk, the rest can be moved in any time. There are many reasons for early adopters to lose their coins

[BlackHatCoiner]

The price effect doesn't really need anyone to identify which coins are lost. If a key is gone, that coin never moves again, so it simply never touches the market.

The provably lost coins are a tiny fraction of the really lost coins which we can't identify. There was a person who lost access to a private key with 8000 BTC, that alone outweighs all the provably lost coins. We don't know how many coins are lost, nor can we approximate it anyhow.

[HONDACD125]

Whether lost or held, any coin that isn't in circulation basically contributes in making Bitcoin more scarce because those bitcoins can't be used since they are locked in a wallet. So it doesn't matter whether a wallet holding bitcoins from the distant past is actually a lost wallet or a wallet that someone still has access to but are just holding and waiting for a better price to finally sell, because in either case, the coins are not in the market, and that is what matters.

This is basically the reason why people hold, because they know that if more and more people start buying and holding bitcoins, the circulating supply will keep getting lower, and that increases the chances of their coins having more value because the value of the asset grows in the market when the supply in the market keeps reducing. That is how the supply and demand mechanism works, and that's the reason why Bitcoin has such a high value today.

So we don't need to know whether some coins beind held in a wallet for many years are lost or being held by someone, because they serve the same purpose anyway.

[Samlucky O]

​Well if I may say we can't properly identify lost coins from long-term holders because the system doesn't know if a person's seed phrase was lost or not. But still, based on my understanding every lost coin makes the rest more valuable because Bitcoin has a limited scarcity of 21 million coins.​ But then if the system can't identify lost coins, how do we know if lost coins make the rest more valuable?......

if you really want to know if lost coin makes the rest valuable, then i will tell you that it is difficult to know the amount of lost coin in the blockchain. but how it makes other coins more valuable is that out of the total supply, the lost ones reduces the number of the total supply and the amount left becomes the total number that is in circulation, making it more scarcer than it was before. lets say if bitcoin where to be 21 in number in the world, and we lost 5, the total amount may be recorded as 21 but the actual number in circulation is just 16 which makes it more scars than ever before. this is why they said lost coin makes others more valuable. and you know that the more scars and asset is, the more expensive it becomes

[SUPERSAIAN]

Bitcoin is already a scarce asset with a limited supply. It's difficult to know exactly how many bitcoins are truly lost wallets that have been inactive for years could become active again one day. But ultimately, whatever the amount lost, it increases Bitcoin's scarcity by reducing its circulating supply. So there's no need to know the exact number, but ultimately, a lot of bitcoins are lost and will continue to be lost.

[Obim34]

You can't be specific with the amount, sometimes we rely on estimates, using the period of wallet inactivity to assume for lost coins. You can't see through the blockchain to know which coins are lost coins or which is in hold, it is something we don't need to pay attention to, obviously you aren't getting access to the coin, if it is owned by somebody that still has access to the wallet, when it moves, you can also track it on the blockchain and confirm it belongs to a holder.

[TastyChillySauce00]

There is an estimation that the lost coins might be amounted to around the range of 15% of total supply but honestly we will never know. The most important thing is the total supply is limited to 21 million only.
Any lost bitcoin is a bonus and will make bitcoin even more scarce. High chance that it will stay this way forever, the amount of lost bitcoin will always be unknown.

[Oasisman]

I know it's kind of confusing, but I need more opinions on this, so correct me if I'm wrong. Even on-chain analysis companies like Glassnode often just guess by saying they are considered lost coins, but there isn't a solid proof that those coins were actually lost for that I don't think we can ever really know the difference......

I think it is safe to say that there is no perfect system in existence that could determine a lost Bitcoin 100%, while identify those who are just holding for a very long time. Those who analyse lost Bitcoin are just merely speculating on a certain fact about a wallet that hasn't move for many years.
If i remember it correctly, it was just last year that a huge wallet have moved for the very first time in over 10 or 15 years, not entirely sure about the length of time, but people thought it was Satoshi. Analytic companies like Chainalysis and Glassnode never have guessed it was still an active wallet, and most likely considered it lost before it moved.

[Mhizlove]

Bitcoin is already a scarce asset with a limited supply. It's difficult to know exactly how many bitcoins are truly lost wallets that have been inactive for years could become active again one day. But ultimately, whatever the amount lost, it increases Bitcoin's scarcity by reducing its circulating supply. So there's no need to know the exact number, but ultimately, a lot of bitcoins are lost and will continue to be lost.

I will say one of the unique things about bitcoin are the  lost coins. The reason I said it, is because once access to a wallet is being lost or gone permanently, those coins are removed effectively from circulation and nobody can gain access or create replacement for it. So at some point, because no one actually knows the exact number of the lost coins, the exact figures remain unknown.so for sure every coin that is lost makes the remaining supply limited or rare over time

[ColdLava40]

If the coin hasn't moved for more than 15 years, I consider it lost tbh. That number might be different for everybody though... It is impossible to know whether those coins were actually lost or the owner is still waiting the right time to sell. I don't think knowing that will do much of a difference in our lives either... It is pretty much useless data. One can acquire 1 btc right now and lose it next hour because he lost his private keys... Stuff like that happens all the time and it is impossible to track all those events.

That's a major point to consider. I really do find it interesting to know that some wallets since the 2014,2015 till date has not been touched.

How many do we really know are truly holders? For what we know is that the owners could be dead, in prison or have lost access to their wallets. Like the guys who has been trying to excavate a dumpsite for his lost coins, he's not dead but his coins are lost and gone.

Such wallets could be counted as well amongst those that are lost or as long term holder. We can't really know which is which but I would just say they are lost coins.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

If the coin hasn't moved for more than 15 years, I consider it lost tbh. That number might be different for everybody though... It is impossible to know whether those coins were actually lost or the owner is still waiting the right time to sell. I don't think knowing that will do much of a difference in our lives either... It is pretty much useless data. One can acquire 1 btc right now and lose it next hour because he lost his private keys... Stuff like that happens all the time and it is impossible to track all those events.

That's a major point to consider. I really do find it interesting to know that some wallets since the 2014,2015 till date has not been touched.

How many do we really know are truly holders? For what we know is that the owners could be dead, in prison or have lost access to their wallets. Like the guys who has been trying to excavate a dumpsite for his lost coins, he's not dead but his coins are lost and gone.

Such wallets could be counted as well amongst those that are lost or as long term holder. We can't really know which is which but I would just say they are lost coins.

It could be true but there are cases like:

• Sleeping beauty bitcoin wallets wake up after 14 years to the tune of $2 billion
• Satoshi-era whale moves $85M in Bitcoin after 13 years
• Bitcoin whale holding $147M wakes after 13 years, makes tiny $56 transfer

So there are still dormant addresses that suddenly woke up after years of sleeping and the owners are not touching it. But then again, sooner or later, those owners might want to move it to a sage wallet or even sold it.

[akamit]

any coin that isn't in circulation basically contributes in making Bitcoin more scarce

Not really imo...

If the coin is just sitting there and has not been moved on chain, it does not mean it is not in circulation. The owner can spend it whenever he wants if he still has the keys and quickly put it back on the market.

This is not the same as coins that are permanently lost or burned. These are the ones that really cut supply.

[joniboini]

So there are still dormant addresses that suddenly woke up after years of sleeping and the owners are not touching it. But then again, sooner or later, those owners might want to move it to a sage wallet or even sold it.

How many cases like this exist btw? Compared to the rest of dormant address, what's the percentage? I'm curious if anyone has done the math or not.

But yeah, I think trying to mark and accurately predict which coin is lost is kinda unnecessary. Just assume everything might hit the market then plan your work around that. Maybe you'll be a bit conservative because of that, but it's much better than assuming everything will go your way and risk all of your wealth imo.

[viljy]

For some reason, there are steady and regular questions about "lost" coins. Sometimes there are even proposals to confiscate them in some way and divide them...  By the very fact that these coins are not in circulation, they already support the current price of bitcoin to some extent.

In any case, it is impossible to know the exact number of such coins. Ancient addresses come to life periodically, especially during bullish periods, which tell us that the coins are not lost. The owners of these coins are just waiting for the right moment to sell. So I think the lost coins are actually much less than we expect.