My prediction. Michael Sellor will cause the bottom of this bear market 2026!

[bbc.reporter]

In any case, this is still very much headshaking because Sellor has transformed his bitcoin roadmap from buy only to a bitcoin-dollar fund which presently has more than $12 billion in unrealized loss on their bitcoin investment.

That’s the issue: he’s going to sell Bitcoin at a loss, although given the company’s situation and the options available to him, it certainly seems like the lesser of all evils among all the courses of action he had at this point. I’m not sure how the market will react in the long term, though. The fact that the largest buyer of Bitcoin—who bought more than all the Bitcoin mined last year—is stopping purchases and switching to selling doesn’t exactly sound very bullish.

Agreed on the lesser than 2 evils argument. The positive side on Michael Sellor's decision is he is fixing the mistake of investing too much on bitcoin and using too much leverage. However, yes, he might still cause the bottom of this bear market hehehe.

Another big short occurrence will certainly be the bubble pop on the AI bubble. We cannot be certain on when this will occur, I reckon. But if it is this year together with Michael Sellor's dump, we might witness lower price on bitcoin than expected.

@OgNasty. I very much agree on your next quarter prediction! This will be bad for bitcoin and the cryptospace!

[OgNasty]

@OgNasty. I very much agree on your next quarter prediction! This will be bad for bitcoin and the cryptospace!

That depends how you look at it. Those who saw this coming and prepared will have an opportunity to grow their stack while newcomers also have a chance to buy on the dip. The only people it really hurts are those who panic out of the market or are forced to sell for life reasons.

[summonerrk]

Maybe it's not all that bad...
Ys, the main driver of growth in 2020 was Strategy's purchases, followed by large-scale accumulation through Bitcoin ETFs. Now, these buyers have reversed course. Saylor would like to continue buying, but he simply doesn't have the necessary tools right now. This methodical outflow of funds from crypto ETFs is associated with the end of the quarter and half-year. This is a standard rebalancing, when funds and investors get rid of the weakest assets. Bitcoin doesn't generate income during periods of decline, so such positions are the first to be reduced.

[danherbias07]

It could be a bluff. An opportunity to buy more at a lower price. Or they are telling the truth and just waiting to see who is going to do it first.

I think these big investors are also afraid to sell because it will not just lower their stacked Bitcoin but will also give a chance to the other big investors to buy at a lower price, and give no chance for a buyback due to the price being boosted back after the buy.
They may have large quantities, but it may not be wise to sell if some big investors are in the shadows waiting to buy it at the time they let it go. Either it is FUD, or just a strategy to keep other investors at bay.

[bbc.reporter]

@OgNasty. I very much agree on your next quarter prediction! This will be bad for bitcoin and the cryptospace!

That depends how you look at it. Those who saw this coming and prepared will have an opportunity to grow their stack while newcomers also have a chance to buy on the dip. The only people it really hurts are those who panic out of the market or are forced to sell for life reasons.

Does this imply that there are people who are wishfully hoping that Michael Sellor's financial experiment will cause a big short occurrence? If there are many of these people, this also implies that they have dumped their bitcoin already and these people are waiting for the big short hehehehe!

[philipma1957]

@OgNasty. I very much agree on your next quarter prediction! This will be bad for bitcoin and the cryptospace!

That depends how you look at it. Those who saw this coming and prepared will have an opportunity to grow their stack while newcomers also have a chance to buy on the dip. The only people it really hurts are those who panic out of the market or are forced to sell for life reasons.

I beg to differ, but do concede you could be correct.

If we go upwards now and don't fall to 45k-55k

The waiters looking to be lower then 58k will be the sad ones.

[Wind_FURY]

@OgNasty. I very much agree on your next quarter prediction! This will be bad for bitcoin and the cryptospace!

That depends how you look at it. Those who saw this coming and prepared will have an opportunity to grow their stack while newcomers also have a chance to buy on the dip. The only people it really hurts are those who panic out of the market or are forced to sell for life reasons.

I beg to differ, but do concede you could be correct.

If we go upwards now and don't fall to 45k-55k

The waiters looking to be lower then 58k will be the sad ones.

But if the Four-Year-Cycle is still intact, then the bottom will be in October/November. You're also right though, start buying Bitcoin NOW while it's under its 200-Weekly SMA Line, THEN buy EVERY DIP with every disposable income you have. If you don't have enough, find a second job, sell things you don't need, sell your second car, and other things you own that depreciate. Old smart phones, old computers, old books, ANYTHING.

[bbc.reporter]

I am beginning to be skeptical on my own speculation that Michael Sellor will cause the bottom of this bear market heheheh. If Sellor caused the local tops of the bull market when he was buying bitcoin, he might also cause the local bottom on bitcoin if he will sell similar to what we are witnessing presently hehehehe.

Sellor dumped bitcoin and this has pumped after the announcement on the news of the dump!

[Free Market Capitalist]

Sellor dumped bitcoin and this has pumped after the announcement on the news of the dump!

Has pumped? The price was at $63K before the announcement. When the previous week's bitcoin sales were announced, there was a small drop, followed by a slight recovery, and now we're back at $63K.

You call that a pump? I don't know how you expect me to take you seriously.

[ultrloa]

Sellor dumped bitcoin and this has pumped after the announcement on the news of the dump!

Has pumped? The price was at $63K before the announcement. When the previous week's bitcoin sales were announced, there was a small drop, followed by a slight recovery, and now we're back at $63K.

You call that a pump? I don't know how you expect me to take you seriously.

Yeah there's no pump happened after they made that sale. Its just we see normal market movement even if Strategy decide to sell a little part of their holdings again.

It seems that many investors already prepared for this situation and they didn't got surprised when they already decide to sell their Bitcoins.

We are not on the level yet on which we can call market is pumping. If Bitcoin would able to reach at $70k again in that time, maybe all of us would agree that Bitcoin is pumping again.

[AakZaki]

I recently noticed a buy and sell attempt by Strategy, a Bitcoin purchase by Strategy that occurred on June 15 and which was reported on June 22 as many as 520 at a price of $67,068, instead dropped to around $57,800 on July 1.

While Strategy sold its 1363 Bitcoins at $59,256 and 2225 at $60,773 last week, Bitcoin is currently up to $63,926 at the time of writing.
All of this seems like a foolishness done by Strategy, as if this big company doesn't have a good analysis team.

I think this kind of move will also be one of the reasons for the low point of the year for the Bitcoin Price, regardless of what will happen to the Strategy until the end of this year, I myself am still optimistic that the Bearish is not over yet and I myself still project that the Bitcoin Price still has the potential to fall deeper than the current Price.

[bbc.reporter]

Sellor dumped bitcoin and this has pumped after the announcement on the news of the dump!

Has pumped? The price was at $63K before the announcement. When the previous week's bitcoin sales were announced, there was a small drop, followed by a slight recovery, and now we're back at $63K.

You call that a pump? I don't know how you expect me to take you seriously.

In the first day when Michael Sellor began dumping, bitcoin went under $60k and by the time he was finished dumping and announced the news, bitcoin pumped to $65k. Also on the last day of his dump, bitcoin fell to $61k and minutes after the announcement, this pumped to $64k heheheh!

It very much appears that he will cause a local bottom on his dumps which might create a higher low, very much the opposite of creating the lower high hehe. Michael Sellor dumping bitcoin is bullish!

In any case, what might cause a real bottom on bitcoin might be the AI bubble pop occurrence.

[goldkingcoiner]

I can't disagree with it. The sentiment has been going so negative after some blunders being made by Saylor. I remember a tweet by coindesk mentioned how Saylor admit he used AI to design his STRC like what?

Is this true? Wow, that is not a good look for Saylor.

Saying something like that is basically admitting incompetence, and after the latest debacle it is quite clear he is not as competent as he tries to appear to the public. The sell-off of his 32 Bitcoin was not much but he broke his own promise of "never selling". So while I myself did not panic at his action as many paper hands did, I can understand the reason for the panic that came from the sellers.

If Saylor wants to sell he can go ahead. Bitcoin does not need him. I am only too glad for the cheap Bitcoin that we will have the opportunity to buy.

[OgNasty]

Is this true? Wow, that is not a good look for Saylor.

Saying something like that is basically admitting incompetence, and after the latest debacle it is quite clear he is not as competent as he tries to appear to the public. The sell-off of his 32 Bitcoin was not much but he broke his own promise of "never selling". So while I myself did not panic at his action as many paper hands did, I can understand the reason for the panic that came from the sellers.

If Saylor wants to sell he can go ahead. Bitcoin does not need him. I am only too glad for the cheap Bitcoin that we will have the opportunity to buy.

Anyone watching Saylor’s speeches last year could see his decent into madness. When he started telling people to sell their kidneys and cash out their grandmother’s retirement to buy Bitcoin it was clear how desperate the situation was. We are now seeing the result. Saylor was a latecomer to Bitcoin and he’s learning lessons now that I learned in 2014. He should never have been considered a leader of our community.

[Free Market Capitalist]

In the first day when Michael Sellor began dumping, bitcoin went under $60k and by the time he was finished dumping and announced the news, bitcoin pumped to $65k. Also on the last day of his dump, bitcoin fell to $61k and minutes after the announcement, this pumped to $64k heheheh!

It very much appears that he will cause a local bottom on his dumps which might create a higher low, very much the opposite of creating the lower high hehe. Michael Sellor dumping bitcoin is bullish!

In any case, what might cause a real bottom on bitcoin might be the AI bubble pop occurrence.

That's just normal volatility for Bitcoin. Besides, you don't seem to realize that his sales don't affect the price, the same as his buys, since he buys OTC and spreads his purchases out over several small transactions.

If I fart, the price drops to $60K and tomorrow it's at $64K—are you going to say that the price fluctuation is caused by my fart?

[bbc.reporter]

@Free Market Capitalist. You might be correct on that assessment, however, it will not be incorrect to also say that Michael Sellor's dump on bitcoin will have an effect on the price of this.

Also, Sellor's dumps and pumps are made on Coinbase Prime and executed through twap trades. This also has an effect on the price.

[dwyane36]

@Free Market Capitalist. You might be correct on that assessment, however, it will not be incorrect to also say that Michael Sellor's dump on bitcoin will have an effect on the price of this.

Also, Sellor's dumps and pumps are made on Coinbase Prime and executed through twap trades. This also has an effect on the price.

Even if such a major player sells BTC via OTC, the crowd will still react negatively once they find out, making emotional trades and thereby triggering a panic sell-off in the short term.
If we compare recent sales, it seems to me that the market reacted more strongly to the announcement of the sale of 32 BTC than to the recent sale of 3,588 BTC.

[ultrloa]

@Free Market Capitalist. You might be correct on that assessment, however, it will not be incorrect to also say that Michael Sellor's dump on bitcoin will have an effect on the price of this.

Also, Sellor's dumps and pumps are made on Coinbase Prime and executed through twap trades. This also has an effect on the price.

Even if such a major player sells BTC via OTC, the crowd will still react negatively once they find out, making emotional trades and thereby triggering a panic sell-off in the short term.
If we compare recent sales, it seems to me that the market reacted more strongly to the announcement of the sale of 32 BTC than to the recent sale of 3,588 BTC.

I see this as normal situation to happen, since people always look at the action done by major player as catastrophic event especially when they start to sell their Bitcoins. So panic selling will come after that.

People react so fast on that 32 BTC sale its because this is the first time they see Strategy dumping their coins even if this is small.

The second one has been announce and people already settle or not surprised with those actions they have done. That's why it just give little to no effect on how market moves.

[Wind_FURY]

@Free Market Capitalist. You might be correct on that assessment, however, it will not be incorrect to also say that Michael Sellor's dump on bitcoin will have an effect on the price of this.

Also, Sellor's dumps and pumps are made on Coinbase Prime and executed through twap trades. This also has an effect on the price.

Even if such a major player sells BTC via OTC, the crowd will still react negatively once they find out, making emotional trades and thereby triggering a panic sell-off in the short term.

If we compare recent sales, it seems to me that the market reacted more strongly to the announcement of the sale of 32 BTC than to the recent sale of 3,588 BTC.

Doesn't THAT show a genius in Saylor's move which played with the psychology of the market?

 

He probably knew that FEAR and PANIC would happen if he started selling, so he sold a "small amount" to make everyone adapted to the thought that he would sell, making the larger sell amount have lesser impact than the smaller amount.

[OgNasty]

Even with the dividend hike and STRC paying out over 15% at the current price, the recovery to $100 has stopped and reversed. So Strategy still can’t use STRC to raise funds only now they are on the hook for even higher dividend payouts. Their every move seems to be making things worse. It is going to be a rough 3 months for Saylor.