Trump Jr. will be the 2028 GOP nominee for president

[legiteum]

Now that I've locked in my bet on PolyMarket, I can let you all know a secret: Donald Trump Jr. will be the GOP nominee for president in 2028. 

While this view is obviously contrarian (~2.5% odds right now on PolyMarket), I really don't think it's much of a stretch once you take a closer look at the dynamics involved.

Supporting facts:

1. The GOP voting base--particularly the primary voting base--is absolutely, positively loyal to Trump first, and the party second.

2. The GOP's media complex will repeat and support absolutely any lie that Trump (or soon, Jr.) lies without question. This gives Trump virtual "mind control" over the GOP voting base.

3. In 2024, Trump Sr. offered the GOP the following deal: nominate him for president, and he won't annihilate the party's chances of ever being in power for the next 20 years. Don't nominate him, and he'll split the vote and Republicans will be subjected to a historical wipe out. There was never any doubt this was going to work in 2024, but that didn't stop a bunch of people predicting folks like Ron Desantis would win. In my opinion, those people are stuck with a view of the situation that is at least 20 years old and completely wrong today.

4. Trump Sr. has always prioritized one thing: what is good for Trump. He has never shown any evidence that he cares about the USA, or about his party

5. The only person Trump could truly trust would be his own blood. (Remember that Vance actually used to trash Trump, so there's no way Trump would ever trust him with anything, for instance. Same for Little Marco).

Thoughts? So, what am I missing? I've got several hundred dollars riding on this bet .

[AVE5]

Thoughts? So, what am I missing? I've got several hundred dollars riding on this bet .

Ever since I've got to learn that treating the prediction market with ease of uncertainty, it's made clear to me that no matter how you'll be convinced with prediction, never you believe it's a guarantee and from several experiences, a lot of people who bets whole heartedly their live savings in the poly market and gambling because they felt too sure of their prediction regrets it.
So I'll either not consider yours a better risk considering that what we're talking about here's a game of politics where godfathers in their different political views and parties have potentials to even step down or defeats an incumbent president on his reruns election.
Dont forget that same Trump lost his United States presidential position when he rerun in 2020 and lost against Joe Biden. So who's Trump Jr not to loss in the GOP? Although with the tie of Trump's political power now, the son has an edge over it but can't be guaranteed.
Don't just be so excited with these your analysis

[programmer3666]

Well, here is the thing, if Trump Sr. somehow ends up leaving a good legacy, then yeah, Trump Jr. might reap the benefits down the road. But the way things are going right now, Especially with this Iran war mess!! Trump Sr. doesn't seem to have the people on his side anymore. Popular opinion is slipping. As for Jr. to be the 2028 GOP nominee, Honestly, I don’t think that will happen as for now, maybe some years down the road.

[legiteum]

Well, here is the thing, if Trump Sr. somehow ends up leaving a good legacy, then yeah, Trump Jr. might reap the benefits down the road. But the way things are going right now, Especially with this Iran war mess!! Trump Sr. doesn't seem to have the people on his side anymore. Popular opinion is slipping. As for Jr. to be the 2028 GOP nominee, Honestly, I don’t think that will happen as for now, maybe some years down the road.

Almost all GOP voters think the Iran war was a glorious victory for the United States.  

You... probably don't understand the GOP voting base very if you can imagine any scenario where Trump's legacy among them will be anything but perfect.

Winning the general election will be another story. Trump Jr. will indeed have a hard time winning that given Trump's legacy to Americans not part of the Trump cult.

[Accardo]

Marco Rubio has worked really hard in this administration, everyone could see his efforts, which will pay off, Trump may not nominate him due to his past history with Marco, but he got him to work in his cabinet, the past won't matter anymore for these two if loyalty is fully tested and passed.

[legiteum]

Marco Rubio has worked really hard in this administration, everyone could see his efforts, which will pay off, Trump may not nominate him due to his past history with Marco, but he got him to work in his cabinet, the past won't matter anymore for these two if loyalty is fully tested and passed.

I forget, how hard did Donald Trump work in the Bush administration?   

Trump has already shown that his cabinet is there for one reason: to blame on everything that goes wrong. He's already burned a few with his fiascos like the immigration stuff, and now he's throwing Vance under the bus.

Rubio will get his turn when the next disaster hits.

Meanwhile, Trump Jr. will be unscratched when 2028 rolls around...

[Accardo]

Rubio will get his turn when the next disaster hits.

Meanwhile, Trump Jr. will be unscratched when 2028 rolls around...

That is if Rubio would be going against him on any of his future agendas, Vance may have been thrown under the bus, but Rubio is the people's man, on the basis or principles that backed the republican party before the American first movement, Rubio is the right candidate. However, a father won't let his son down in choosing among 3 candidates which Trump Jr is inclusive, the big question would be, whether the republicans would win the white house in 2028.

[legiteum]

Rubio will get his turn when the next disaster hits.

Meanwhile, Trump Jr. will be unscratched when 2028 rolls around...

That is if Rubio would be going against him on any of his future agendas, Vance may have been thrown under the bus, but Rubio is the people's man, on the basis or principles that backed the republican party before the American first movement, Rubio is the right candidate. However, a father won't let his son down in choosing among 3 candidates which Trump Jr is inclusive, the big question would be, whether the republicans would win the white house in 2028.

ROFL, "the people's man"? Where did you get that??

He's the guy Trump called, "Little Marco" and utterly destroyed in the primary elections. There's no evidence that Rubio has any serious pull with the actual GOP voting base who chose Trump (and I think the polling you see now reflects people not really knowing the answer at all because they haven't thought of it seriously).

And there is no "republican party before the America first movement" anymore than there's a Democratic party defending what they used to defend in the 1950s in the South (google it  ). Parties change, sometimes drastically, and the GOP of today has absolutely nothing to do with the GOP before Trump. And there's definitely no going back unless the party loses so bad in an election cycle they feel they need to change--but they will need to lose FIRST, and THEN change.

And it's not accurate, based on what we know, that Trump Sr. would choose his son out of "love for his son" or something like that. It's well-known that the only reason Trump ran for president again in 2024 was to keep himself out of prison, which he knew he faced if he was not president. Hence picking his son will simply be a continuation of that strategy, and also to keep the family's fortune from being taken in prosecution actions as well.

In other words, Jr. is the only one he can trust, partially because Jr. will be safeguarding his own money (inheritance) by keeping his father out of prison. Trump cannot possibly have that same kind of relationship with any other candidate.

[Accardo]

ROFL, "the people's man"? Where did you get that??

He's the guy Trump called, "Little Marco" and utterly destroyed in the primary elections. There's no evidence that Rubio has any serious pull with the actual GOP voting base who chose Trump (and I think the polling you see now reflects people not really knowing the answer at all because they haven't thought of it seriously).

And there is no "republican party before the America first movement" anymore than there's a Democratic party defending what they used to defend in the 1950s in the South (google it  ). Parties change, sometimes drastically, and the GOP of today has absolutely nothing to do with the GOP before Trump. And there's definitely no going back unless the party loses so bad in an election cycle they feel they need to change--but they will need to lose FIRST, and THEN change.

And it's not accurate, based on what we know, that Trump Sr. would choose his son out of "love for his son" or something like that. It's well-known that the only reason Trump ran for president again in 2024 was to keep himself out of prison, which he knew he faced if he was not president. Hence picking his son will simply be a continuation of that strategy, and also to keep the family's fortune from being taken in prosecution actions as well.

In other words, Jr. is the only one he can trust, partially because Jr. will be safeguarding his own money (inheritance) by keeping his father out of prison. Trump cannot possibly have that same kind of relationship with any other candidate.

The American people, Democrats, and independents would have lesser criticism or suspicions for Marco if nominated than they would for Trump Jr, whose nomination would ignite or trigger multiple negative perspectives of thoughts like Nepotism, establishing a hereditary system, or a dynasty in the Presidential seat of America, don't you think Trump will think of all of that before thinking of nominating his son? Trump Jr has never served in a public office for the American government, and would be tagged inexperienced. However, your last line is a deep rooted thought, but is also a strong counter for Trump in the senate if he does make this step.

[o48o]

Nah, That would require Donald backing him up, because no one likes Trump Jr. Frankly i doubt that even Donald likes him

And i am fairly sure that Trump wouldn't be around to back him up, because his health has declined so fast. I reckon it's gonna be JD Vance and he will definitely loses as he doesn't have any charisma and he can't even pretend to have a backbone.

After that, they hopefully jail the whole bunch for numerous reasons among with co-conspirators and henchmen. But that will take even longer then then Epstein investigation, because corruption is on whole different level.

[OgNasty]

I don’t think that Trump jr is going to be in the White House anytime soon. If one did make it back into the country’s greatest honor, my guess is that it would be Barron. As others have touched on already, there is a clear succession lining up behind Donald already.

[legiteum]

The American people, Democrats, and independents would have lesser criticism or suspicions for Marco if nominated than they would for Trump Jr, whose nomination would ignite or trigger multiple negative perspectives of thoughts like Nepotism, establishing a hereditary system, or a dynasty in the Presidential seat of America, don't you think Trump will think of all of that before thinking of nominating his son? Trump Jr has never served in a public office for the American government, and would be tagged inexperienced. However, your last line is a deep rooted thought, but is also a strong counter for Trump in the senate if he does make this step.

Yes, Trump Jr. may well be a weaker candidate that Rubio, but in the US system, only members of the party vote in the primary election for the nominee.

Also, you are apply logic to a set of voters who twice voted for Trump Sr.  

I reckon it's gonna be JD Vance and he will definitely loses as he doesn't have any charisma and he can't even pretend to have a backbone.

I bought the NO on JD Vance as well. It's absolutely impossible that Vance makes it. He's just there because people who don't know anything about how the GOP works today think it will be the VP. But he's in the process of being burned up by Trump.

If it wasn't Trump Jr., it will be Tucker Carlson or more likely Stephen Bannon--or some other guy like that.

[BADecker]

Liberal friends melting down! Tell them Don't Cry Cryo!
Let them hibernate for 4 years in peaceful bliss.


Don’t Cry, Cryo! 😂 Need a Break from Trump’s Term? Freeze Yourself for 4 Years!

[khatarnak]

Now that I've locked in my bet on PolyMarket, I can let you all know a secret: Donald Trump Jr. will be the GOP nominee for president in 2028. 

If this hits at 2.5%, I'm coming back to this thread in 2028 to ask for your next prediction. 

[Accardo]

Yes, Trump Jr. may well be a weaker candidate that Rubio, but in the US system, only members of the party vote in the primary election for the nominee.

Also, you are apply logic to a set of voters who twice voted for Trump Sr.  

You're right they did, because the democrats went crazy, in just four years in office, if the plot works for Trump Jr to represent GOP then the democrats will be happy about the fact that they'll be reinstated into the Whitehouse.

[o48o]

I reckon it's gonna be JD Vance and he will definitely loses as he doesn't have any charisma and he can't even pretend to have a backbone.

I bought the NO on JD Vance as well. It's absolutely impossible that Vance makes it. He's just there because people who don't know anything about how the GOP works today think it will be the VP. But he's in the process of being burned up by Trump.

If it wasn't Trump Jr., it will be Tucker Carlson or more likely Stephen Bannon--or some other guy like that.

I meant that Vance is going to be a candidate because he is automatically going to be a president after trump passes away.

At the point of selection, he has been a president for a while and rest of the party sees him as safest choice, because they don't have enough credible candidates that would be pro Trump. It's going to be "don't change horses in midstream" type of situation. People however don't like him and he loses the presidential race

To my eyes, only way for democrats to lose is if team Trump manages to cancel or rig elections.

Then again, as i don't live there, it's hard to get real feel on how polarized they are and how sophisticated people actually are. But as they keep choosing trump, i don't get a feeling that they are very bright.

[legiteum]

I reckon it's gonna be JD Vance and he will definitely loses as he doesn't have any charisma and he can't even pretend to have a backbone.

I bought the NO on JD Vance as well. It's absolutely impossible that Vance makes it. He's just there because people who don't know anything about how the GOP works today think it will be the VP. But he's in the process of being burned up by Trump.

If it wasn't Trump Jr., it will be Tucker Carlson or more likely Stephen Bannon--or some other guy like that.

I meant that Vance is going to be a candidate because he is automatically going to be a president after trump passes away.

Ah, okay. Yeah, that's always a chance. But if that happens, they still wouldn't let Vance win the nomination, I don't think.

Recall that Vance said nasty things about Trump before he was "converted". There's no chance Republican voters will ever forget that. He's somebody they see as a servant, not as somebody who could be in charge of anything.

At the point of selection, he has been a president for a while and rest of the party sees him as safest choice, because they don't have enough credible candidates that would be pro Trump. It's going to be "don't change horses in midstream" type of situation. People however don't like him and he loses the presidential race.

As Trump Sr. showed, the "safest choice" was to nominate Trump and not face Trump splitting the GOP vote. Trump Sr. absolutely threatened to do this--explicitly--and everybody knew he would since he doesn't care about the party (or the country for that matter).

NOT nominating Trump will be extremely risky. Trump Jr. could, without even trying, split off 40% of the GOP voting base. And that's without even trying, or using the $decabillions that his father will have scored for him during his presidency.

But as the 2024 election cycle demonstrated, that won't happen: the GOP is perfectly happen to just capitulate to Trump and not take that chance. They know that it doesn't matter how bad they are since all they need to do is convince a majority that the other side is worse.

To my eyes, only way for democrats to lose is if team Trump manages to cancel or rig elections.

Then again, as i don't live there, it's hard to get real feel on how polarized they are and how sophisticated people actually are. But as they keep choosing trump, i don't get a feeling that they are very bright.

That's probably true in the upcoming election, but a lot can happen by 2028.