Trump Jr. will be the 2028 GOP nominee for president

[legiteum]

Now that I've locked in my bet on PolyMarket, I can let you all know a secret: Donald Trump Jr. will be the GOP nominee for president in 2028. 

While this view is obviously contrarian (~2.5% odds right now on PolyMarket), I really don't think it's much of a stretch once you take a closer look at the dynamics involved.

Supporting facts:

1. The GOP voting base--particularly the primary voting base--is absolutely, positively loyal to Trump first, and the party second.

2. The GOP's media complex will repeat and support absolutely any lie that Trump (or soon, Jr.) lies without question. This gives Trump virtual "mind control" over the GOP voting base.

3. In 2024, Trump Sr. offered the GOP the following deal: nominate him for president, and he won't annihilate the party's chances of ever being in power for the next 20 years. Don't nominate him, and he'll split the vote and Republicans will be subjected to a historical wipe out. There was never any doubt this was going to work in 2024, but that didn't stop a bunch of people predicting folks like Ron Desantis would win. In my opinion, those people are stuck with a view of the situation that is at least 20 years old and completely wrong today.

4. Trump Sr. has always prioritized one thing: what is good for Trump. He has never shown any evidence that he cares about the USA, or about his party

5. The only person Trump could truly trust would be his own blood. (Remember that Vance actually used to trash Trump, so there's no way Trump would ever trust him with anything, for instance. Same for Little Marco).

Thoughts? So, what am I missing? I've got several hundred dollars riding on this bet .

[AVE5]

Thoughts? So, what am I missing? I've got several hundred dollars riding on this bet .

Ever since I've got to learn that treating the prediction market with ease of uncertainty, it's made clear to me that no matter how you'll be convinced with prediction, never you believe it's a guarantee and from several experiences, a lot of people who bets whole heartedly their live savings in the poly market and gambling because they felt too sure of their prediction regrets it.
So I'll either not consider yours a better risk considering that what we're talking about here's a game of politics where godfathers in their different political views and parties have potentials to even step down or defeats an incumbent president on his reruns election.
Dont forget that same Trump lost his United States presidential position when he rerun in 2020 and lost against Joe Biden. So who's Trump Jr not to loss in the GOP? Although with the tie of Trump's political power now, the son has an edge over it but can't be guaranteed.
Don't just be so excited with these your analysis

[programmer3666]

Well, here is the thing, if Trump Sr. somehow ends up leaving a good legacy, then yeah, Trump Jr. might reap the benefits down the road. But the way things are going right now, Especially with this Iran war mess!! Trump Sr. doesn't seem to have the people on his side anymore. Popular opinion is slipping. As for Jr. to be the 2028 GOP nominee, Honestly, I don’t think that will happen as for now, maybe some years down the road.

[legiteum]

Well, here is the thing, if Trump Sr. somehow ends up leaving a good legacy, then yeah, Trump Jr. might reap the benefits down the road. But the way things are going right now, Especially with this Iran war mess!! Trump Sr. doesn't seem to have the people on his side anymore. Popular opinion is slipping. As for Jr. to be the 2028 GOP nominee, Honestly, I don’t think that will happen as for now, maybe some years down the road.

Almost all GOP voters think the Iran war was a glorious victory for the United States.  

You... probably don't understand the GOP voting base very if you can imagine any scenario where Trump's legacy among them will be anything but perfect.

Winning the general election will be another story. Trump Jr. will indeed have a hard time winning that given Trump's legacy to Americans not part of the Trump cult.

[Accardo]

Marco Rubio has worked really hard in this administration, everyone could see his efforts, which will pay off, Trump may not nominate him due to his past history with Marco, but he got him to work in his cabinet, the past won't matter anymore for these two if loyalty is fully tested and passed.

[legiteum]

Marco Rubio has worked really hard in this administration, everyone could see his efforts, which will pay off, Trump may not nominate him due to his past history with Marco, but he got him to work in his cabinet, the past won't matter anymore for these two if loyalty is fully tested and passed.

I forget, how hard did Donald Trump work in the Bush administration?   

Trump has already shown that his cabinet is there for one reason: to blame on everything that goes wrong. He's already burned a few with his fiascos like the immigration stuff, and now he's throwing Vance under the bus.

Rubio will get his turn when the next disaster hits.

Meanwhile, Trump Jr. will be unscratched when 2028 rolls around...