Anyone else getting those May/Jun 2020 vibes?

[bated]

Been staring at the Crypto Fear & Greed Index over time and I can't unsee it. Pull up the long chart and look at late 2019 into the 2020 crash, and mid-2022. Then look at the far right. We're sitting in the exact same hole.

https://postimg.cc/jCT0LNq6

Here's why it matters, with the actual numbers:

The 2020 bottom. The index ground through the teens late 2019, then COVID slammed it to a reading of 8 (hit on Mar 17 and again Mar 26, 2020). One of the most extreme fear prints ever recorded. Everyone called it the end. What actually happened? Bitcoin ripped ~123% in the next six weeks, then kept going into the blowoff top of early 2021. Green arrow straight into Extreme Greed.

And here's the kicker for the title: by May/Jun 2020 the recovery was already in full swing. BTC had nearly tripled off the $3,858 March low to retake $10,000 by May 6, the halving landed May 11, and over the next 12 months price ran from ~$8,700 to ~$55,800 — a 540% move. That quiet May/Jun stretch, right after max fear, was the launchpad nobody wanted to buy.

The 2022 bottom. Terra/Luna, 3AC, Celsius all imploding. Index bottomed at 6 in June 2022 — even lower than COVID. Peak misery, funeral threads everywhere. That capitulation marked the floor that fed the entire 2023 grind and the run into the 2024-2025 highs.

Now. Late 2025 into 2026 we're back in that same low-20s-and-below Extreme Fear zone, and it just touched 10 recently — lowest since 2022. Same shape on the chart. Same sentiment. Same "it's over" crowd.

Notice the pattern isn't the sharp one-day spike down — it's the lingering. Every major leg up on this chart started from a long, demoralizing stretch parked in the basement, not a quick scare. 8 in 2020, 6 in 2022, and we're grinding the same range right now.

I'm not calling the exact bottom — nobody can. But Extreme Fear this deep and this persistent has been the setup, not the ending, all three times this chart has shown it. The loudest doomers right now are the same energy as the people posting capitulation threads in March 2020 and summer 2022.

Third time watching this movie. Anyone else loading up here, or am I just pattern-matching myself into a bag?

Check it yourself: https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

[sergiorus]

Been staring at the Crypto Fear & Greed Index over time and I can't unsee it. Pull up the long chart and look at late 2019 into the 2020 crash, and mid-2022. Then look at the far right. We're sitting in the exact same hole.



Here's why it matters, with the actual numbers:

The 2020 bottom. The index ground through the teens late 2019, then COVID slammed it to a reading of 8 (hit on Mar 17 and again Mar 26, 2020). One of the most extreme fear prints ever recorded. Everyone called it the end. What actually happened? Bitcoin ripped ~123% in the next six weeks, then kept going into the blowoff top of early 2021. Green arrow straight into Extreme Greed.

And here's the kicker for the title: by May/Jun 2020 the recovery was already in full swing. BTC had nearly tripled off the $3,858 March low to retake $10,000 by May 6, the halving landed May 11, and over the next 12 months price ran from ~$8,700 to ~$55,800 — a 540% move. That quiet May/Jun stretch, right after max fear, was the launchpad nobody wanted to buy.

The 2022 bottom. Terra/Luna, 3AC, Celsius all imploding. Index bottomed at 6 in June 2022 — even lower than COVID. Peak misery, funeral threads everywhere. That capitulation marked the floor that fed the entire 2023 grind and the run into the 2024-2025 highs.

Now. Late 2025 into 2026 we're back in that same low-20s-and-below Extreme Fear zone, and it just touched 10 recently — lowest since 2022. Same shape on the chart. Same sentiment. Same "it's over" crowd.

Notice the pattern isn't the sharp one-day spike down — it's the lingering. Every major leg up on this chart started from a long, demoralizing stretch parked in the basement, not a quick scare. 8 in 2020, 6 in 2022, and we're grinding the same range right now.

I'm not calling the exact bottom — nobody can. But Extreme Fear this deep and this persistent has been the setup, not the ending, all three times this chart has shown it. The loudest doomers right now are the same energy as the people posting capitulation threads in March 2020 and summer 2022.

Third time watching this movie. Anyone else loading up here, or am I just pattern-matching myself into a bag?

Check it yourself: https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

idk in 2020 coins started slowly climbing up soon after the sell-off and by May-June many did a few hundred % gains off the bottom (i.e. LINK).
today many coins once again made new all time lows so we generally just keep bleeding still.

fwiw, i think we're still at or around the bottom but the situation is clearly different and we may stay in this fearful near death state for a while.

[bated]

idk in 2020 coins started slowly climbing up soon after the sell-off and by May-June many did a few hundred % gains off the bottom (i.e. LINK).
today many coins once again made new all time lows so we generally just keep bleeding still.

fwiw, i think we're still at or around the bottom but the situation is clearly different and we may stay in this fearful near death state for a while.

Yeah, fair points, and I think you nailed the key difference — 2020 was a sharp V off the bottom (LINK doing multi-hundred % is a perfect example), whereas this cycle we're just slow-bleeding into fresh ATLs with no real relief. That's a different character entirely.

But the big thing for me is macro, specifically the geopolitics finally cooling off. US/Iran just signed a framework to end the war and Israel/Lebanon have a ceasefire in place — fragile, sure, but the direction is de-escalation for the first time in a while. What stands out even more is that the US is now actively putting pressure on Israel — Trump publicly reining in Netanyahu over the Lebanon strikes, pushing him to stand down. That's a real shift in posture, and it signals the whole "perpetual escalation" trade is changing. And oil's already responding: Brent's dropped something like $17 a barrel over a handful of sessions down into the mid-$70s. Cheap energy + risk premium bleeding out of markets is historically the kind of setup that flips fear into boom times. Liquidity tends to follow once the "world's on fire" trade unwinds.

So I'm with you that we're at or near the bottom, I just think the catalyst this time is external/macro rather than an internal crypto V-bounce.

[cryptoaddictchie]

I'm not calling the exact bottom — nobody can. But Extreme Fear this deep and this persistent has been the setup, not the ending, all three times this chart has shown it. The loudest doomers right now are the same energy as the people posting capitulation threads in March 2020 and summer 2022.

Third time watching this movie. Anyone else loading up here, or am I just pattern-matching myself into a bag?

Probably this kinda low are we had seen in the past cycle too. If anyone got funds then its always good to load up or do some dca cause at this point we could be having a reversal. Its been so long that we are on the red pattern and anytime or moment we could really experience what have been waiting for.

I had a lots of debts due to my personal problems that need to be settle but I wish I could gain some funds to accumulate some good coins before it explode and consider on bull phase.

[_act_]

I'm not calling the exact bottom — nobody can. But Extreme Fear this deep and this persistent has been the setup, not the ending, all three times this chart has shown it. The loudest doomers right now are the same energy as the people posting capitulation threads in March 2020 and summer 2022.

You are very correct about this, it is the same bull bear pattern. It is true that nobody knows the price that will be the bottom right now, but I do not think bitcoin will fall significantly further down, but it can end up just falling slightly lower. Even if bitcoin fall further, it is the best time to accumulate bitcoin gradually. The same fear came in 2026, the same greedy will follow in the coming years and bull run again. I just hope I have more time to buy bitcoin because I only have little for now.

[Faisal2202]

I'm not calling the exact bottom — nobody can. But Extreme Fear this deep and this persistent has been the setup, not the ending, all three times this chart has shown it. The loudest doomers right now are the same energy as the people posting capitulation threads in March 2020 and summer 2022.

I was not around in 2020, but I understand what you mean here. If we observe the fear and greed index alone, we will realize where we are, and you have done great by comparing it with the previous ones to give a better idea, and it makes more sense and urges us to buy more.

Also, it emphasizes how vulnerable we are to losing opportunities, especially when they are right in front of us. Instead of using them, we wait and wait for bigger dumps so we could make a little more profit and lose the opportunity to make what was for sure.