Mark Zuckerberg Directed Meta to Create a Prediction Markets App

[Julien_Olynpic]

Mark Zuckerberg is almost always a late adopter of hyped innovations. This was the case with metaverses and with virtual reality headsets. Where are all these things now? Everyone prefers to keep quiet about metaverses. I suspect that the same thing will happen to Mark Zuckerberg's prediction market app as to Zuckerberg's metaverse. Of course, Meta will want to lure competent prediction market developers to its company, but it won't be easy. Ultimately, Polymarket will remain the clear leader.

[cryptoaddictchie]

Meta wants to rival Polymarket and Kalshi with Arena, a smart phone app Prediction market that Mark Zuckerberg do not want money to be used to bet, but bet with video-game-like points system instead.

I have mentioned all the necessary part about the Arena, but you can read more about it on https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/23/technology/meta-prediction-markets-app.html

If Arena is created, will it rival Polymarket and Kalshi effectively?

Another trial and error by Mark it maybe slight different but let see if it would click. The fact that he was introducing something off related to prediction market seems he knew that it is a new narrative that most are into.

Love it or hate it, thats how trend works and I can see why a lot of firms are trying their hands on some potential users for prediction market cause the demand is quite high. Plus consider the loophole on regulations that isnt a gambling platform. As they say!

[ImGenius]

With the huge amount of products i mean users they have in meta they can beat polymarket easily but the question is how many country will block this prediction market? Currently polymarket blocked in 33 country maybe increased more. Mark Zuckerberg may comes to prediction market for short time to gain huge revenue.

[famososMuertos]

OP;The point is that surely all that's missing is for that question you're asking to appear in the Polymarket predictions market, since you're asking a question of the type of answer that the predictions market requires, yes or no.  : )
This type projects  only needs 1% or maybe 0.5% of its billions of users on any of its platforms to be interested, so the problem won't be that it competes, but how long it will be competitive and become the leader, it has the two main things, money and users.

[TedMosby]

Meta wants to rival Polymarket and Kalshi with Arena, a smart phone app Prediction market that Mark Zuckerberg do not want money to be used to bet, but bet with video-game-like points system instead.
[...]

The point system itself is still not fully explained in that news. As you mentioned in your post, they only stated that users would not wager money, but more like game-style points.

But we all somehow can predict how this point system will work in the Meta ecosystem. This might not use real money in the beginning, but I believe, soon people could get benefits from the points they collect, like converting them into vouchers (company partners), Meta verified subscription (blue check mark), or Meta ads (to boost users' post reach). Once these benefits are disclosed, the points will become a commodity and can be converted into real money through the secondary market.

[...]
If Arena is created, will it rival Polymarket and Kalshi effectively?

In popularity, maybe. But depends on the marketing and the "made-up" stories they create
In liquidity, depends on the actual benefits and activities in the secondary market.

[Mpamaegbu]

While I wish him luck in his endeavours going into prediction markets, I want to state here that whatever made him fail with his dream crypto token, Libra, may still be around the corner to dwarf this new dream of his.

Knowing the large fan base of his Facebook and other sister companies under Meta and the age brackets of those who use it more, it's very obvious that it will onboard more youths into gambling. Is that what we want? I guess not. I believe this will work against him by regulations.

[henmark]

Meta wants to rival Polymarket and Kalshi with Arena, a smart phone app Prediction market that Mark Zuckerberg do not want money to be used to bet, but bet with video-game-like points system instead.

I have mentioned all the necessary part about the Arena, but you can read more about it on https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/23/technology/meta-prediction-markets-app.html

If Arena is created, will it rival Polymarket and Kalshi effectively?

Mark Zuckerberg is weird when it comes to new trends. He sees metaverse, asks them to do metaverse, he sees stablecoins, asks them to build libra, he sees VR, asks them to build VR goggles, he sees polymarket, and asks them to build predictions market. Basically, Mark is not really after actually doing something, he is after just building stuff for a few months until there is a new trend and he jumps on that.

You do not get to be rich that way, you build something others do not have, and what you create should be wanted instead. If you just make copycats of things that are already famous, you are not going to get rich. But we should not be shocked about it, dude had zero original ideas on his life, he made a myspace clone, based on someone else's idea to have school mails, and that's why he thinks if he can steal more ideas, he can once again be rich.

[Fortify]

Meta wants to rival Polymarket and Kalshi with Arena, a smart phone app Prediction market that Mark Zuckerberg do not want money to be used to bet, but bet with video-game-like points system instead.

I have mentioned all the necessary part about the Arena, but you can read more about it on https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/23/technology/meta-prediction-markets-app.html

If Arena is created, will it rival Polymarket and Kalshi effectively?

It seems entirely logical the a rich businessman would chase a new industry that is opening up and highly lucrative to the owners. They have the next couple years while Trump is in power to maximize their returns from this form of gambling, because he will have the protection of Trump who's stepson is also tied up as a big investor in Polymarket. Whether it last much longer intl the next presidency - it might take a while for regulators to recover from all the incompetency and corruption that has been seeded - is yet to be seen. What is safe to say is that they can direct an awful lot of users, if it only the American audience, over to this newly created section of their website and probably make a large profit from it.

[CryptSafe]

This would be gambling on the sprees. My concern now is the fact that there are more underage on Facebook and definitely Facebook would come up with ads to promote their prediction market app for a wide visibility and audience and this audience definitely involves both underage and matured adults. Maybe Zuckerberg should state modalities they've put in place to checkmate people that registers on the platform so they don't end accepting more of underage than adults on the prediction app.

[OgNasty]

Every time I see this I'm reminded of how Zuck wanted Meta to have it's own stablecoin, but that fell through.  Then he wanted to be the augmented reality home on the internet and shut that down after losing billions.  Now he's chasing prediction markets...  How will this be any different?  How will he get approval to do this when he couldn't for a stablecoin?  It almost seems like a desperation ploy to keep the stock elevated to dump before a market crash.  I guess my new stance on this is that I will believe it when I see it.

[Orpichukwu]

If Arena is created, will it rival Polymarket and Kalshi effectively?

It won’t completely take over unlessthose ppointscan ssomehow e converted to real mmoney,just as we have similar casino games on mobile that could be played without using money but just for complete ffun,yet people are still using their money and ppatronisingthe ccasinos;both will exist unless mMetais trying to create something which will offer another prediction option in another level.

[Fiatless]

The point system itself is still not fully explained in that news. As you mentioned in your post, they only stated that users would not wager money, but more like game-style points.

Restricting the platform to use only a video-game-like points system doesn't sound right to me. It might make the game complicated. However, the report said that the company is not writing off on introducing the use of money in the near future.  

I wonder why all these tech companies want to be involved in the prediction market. I think the sector needs to be regulated to avoid abuse.  

[CryptoBuds]

Hmm, not sure if this is going to be good for gamblers, if no money is going to used then for sure gamblers will not want to play on that kind of platform that Meta is creating. And for sure they will be facing a lot of scrutiny.

So it doesn't really make sense why Mark is suddenly putting his hands on prediction market. Remember that his AI project was a complete disaster and failure, and it will be on name. Maybe he wants to do something different with the current hype of prediction market, but if we look at it right now, many US states and countries are banning it already so why Mark is suddenly on the joining the bandwagon?

I agree that it will never attract serious bettors like Polymarket or Kalshi. That core audience will always be on crypto or regulated platforms.

But I think there is a strategic reason behind Zuck's move.

Meta's main app growth has now matured. So they are experimenting with standalone apps like Arena outside of Facebook/IG to catch emerging trends. If I am not mistaken, they tried Forecast a year ago and shut it down.

As prediction markets are hugely hyped culturally nowadays. By starting with just point they are able to avoid gambling lawsuits. They are also able to leverage Meta's huge user base.

If it is popular there should be no problem adding real money features later. You know regulation is really getting tighter because of insider trading and the CFTC crackdown. So I think this safe entry by Meta is a very intelligent move.

[coinlary]

Stil no clear description  from the article , I'm  I the only one seeing the conten from the article (not OP) t as vague . The only part I got clearly is that they are working on an app called arena which is probably going to be a replica or something  close  to  Kashi or  polymarkef . It mention games point but not clear  and requires a sign-up to read fill article  .  
I'm sure it will still allow users to use their money, if it isn't about  profit then it's what?

[Agbe]

If Arena is created, will it rival Polymarket and Kalshi effectively?

People that are conversant with Polymarket and Kalshi come make the comparing effectively but as for me, I ga e not used them but from distance or sight analysis, Polymarket and Kalshi are already established companies in the market. And if arena is created and it doesn't have weight like them, they not pull market. And the other uses of them will determine the outcome. I still believe Polymarket will be the leader in the prediction market.

[Myleschetty]

If Arena is created, will it rival Polymarket and Kalshi effectively?

Due to the concept behind its creation, there is a low to moderate chance that Arena will compete with Polymarket and Kalshi. While Polymarket and Kalshi offer the chance to earn money through their platforms, Arena will be a point-based game prediction market with no actual money involved. Unless the Arena team clarifies in the future that users are accruing points that can be exchanged for money or other valuables.

[DPHOR]

I do not think so because already there are facing a lot, some states in the United States are suing polymarket and the rest predictions market to be operating illegally on their state. Prediction market sees themselves as not a gambling site while others who knows what is involved in prediction do know that they are also gamble site, but they have sugarcoated they whole thing where you wouldn't even know that they are similar to gambling site. In fact, what I understood by gambling site is that, whatever amount you deposited on the gambling site and you had in mind to receive something as winning is known to be gambling site and prediction market can't be having that right to say that they are not gambling site but predictions market.

[Shinpako09]

If Arena is created, will it rival Polymarket and Kalshi effectively?

Sure thing. He is, after all, Mark Zuckerberg. Promotion won't be a problem for Meta. It will reach a massive audience and instantly rival both Polymarket and Kaishi once it's officially launched. Many people will surely try it right away, whether out of curiosity, because of the ads, or simply to compare it with the existing platforms.

I'm still not sure what currency they will use, but I'm sure they'll support crypto in some way. Who knows, it might even be USDC since they are slowly rolling out a program where content creators have the option to receive their earnings through either traditional fiat or USDC.

[nelson4lov]

Another masterclass in copying and failing coming from Mark Zuckerberg and Meta.

This is not the first time he has done this and all his past attempts to copy trends like this haven't ended up well. I remember they saw that crypto was all the rage so they created Libra and it really didn't take off. I remember at the time, seeing the news about Libra was such a big news for Bitcoin and the entire crypto space because it meant more adoption at a time when crypto was heavily scrutinized. Then Mark pushed Metaverse heavily and said it was the biggest thing to come. Now he's fomoing into prediction markets.

It clearly shows Meta have net zero value to add  in the near future.

[Dump3er]

Meta wants to rival Polymarket and Kalshi with Arena, a smart phone app Prediction market that Mark Zuckerberg do not want money to be used to bet, but bet with video-game-like points system instead.

I have mentioned all the necessary part about the Arena, but you can read more about it on https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/23/technology/meta-prediction-markets-app.html

If Arena is created, will it rival Polymarket and Kalshi effectively?

Okay but this brings me to an important question, do those video points cost any money or how do you acquire them? There is a saying that if you don't have to pay for a product, you are the product. There is definitely one way how he monetizes it. I don't know how exactly, but Zuckerberg isn't doing or building or offering anything for free. At the end of the day it could just be another data grab and he will sell products to you later down the road. If he can gather all that information on how people behave when it comes to gambling, there is still massive potential how he could turn that into money. I don't know, but imagine he could sell that data to insurance companies or other services that are interested in understanding whether a potential customer could suffer from an addiction.

I am not sure I would want to use that service. He has the user base of course and prediction markets would only make sense as he can capitalize on the wisdom of the many, but I think everyone should be carefully considering whether using a Zuckerberg service like that makes sense to them or not. I know many will use it carelessly, but I don't really like a service like that.